Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law?
Yes refers to: Before 2027
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- House GOP leaders express significant free speech concerns about KOSA.
- Google has not endorsed KOSA, proposing an alternative child-safety framework.
- S.1748 (KOSA) appears to enjoy significant bipartisan support in Senate Commerce.
- A House version advanced from committee in early 2026.
- House version faces hurdles, including disagreements over the "duty of care."
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 15.0% | 17.2% | Legislation often requires multiple congressional sessions to pass. |
Current Context
Sources (4)
- 1S.1748 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Kids Online Safety Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 2S.1748 - Kids Online Safety Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
- 3Cruz backing KOSA, giving social media legislation a boostthehill.com
- 4House GOP Moves Ahead with Kids Online Safety Package as Democrats Balk | TechPolicy.Presstechpolicy.press
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if a law titled "Kids Online Safety Act" or one requiring online platforms to act in minors' best interest or implement specific safeguards for them becomes law before 2027. Otherwise, the market resolves to "No". The market will close by January 1, 2027, at 10:00 AM EST, or earlier if the event occurs, with outcomes verified by the Library of Congress.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | $0.20 | $0.85 | 15% |
Market Discussion
The market largely predicts against the Kids Online Safety Act becoming law before 2027, with only a 15% chance currently priced for a "Yes" outcome. The sole discussion point suggests that even if a bill specifically titled "KOSA" does not pass, an equivalent bill with similar provisions, which would satisfy the "Yes" criteria outlined in the market rules, could still become law.
4. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 563% of the price to slippage.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. What specific free speech and censorship concerns from House GOP leadership could prevent KOSA from receiving a floor vote before 2027?
| GOP leadership concern | Free speech and censorship regarding KOSA's 'duty of care' [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Speaker Johnson's view | KOSA's Senate-passed version is 'very problematic' due to censorship incentives [1][2][4] |
| Bill progress impact | House Republican leadership slow-rolled or let KOSA fade over free-expression worries [1][4] |
Sources (7)
- 1Johnson pours cold water on KOSA push - The Hillthehill.com
- 2Johnson calls Kids Online Safety Act ‘very problematic’ - AOLaol.com
- 3House GOP tensions drag down Kids Online Safety Actpunchbowl.news
- 4Whatever happened to the Kids Online Safety Act? | The Vergetheverge.com
- 5The Kids Online Safety Act Will Make the Internet Worse for Everyone | Electronic Frontier Foundationeff.org
- 6Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA): Protecting Children or Censoring the Internet? - State of Surveillancestateofsurveillance.org
- 7Kids Online Safety Acten.wikipedia.org
6. How do the core provisions of the Senate's Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) differ from the House's proposed Kids Internet and Digital Safety (KIDS) Act in the 119th Congress?
| KOSA core focus | Establishes reasonable policies, practices, and procedures to address harms to minors [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| KIDS Act technology verification | Mandates commercially available technology to identify minors and prevent access to sexual material harmful to minors [4][5] |
| KIDS Act youth profiling | Prohibits market or product-focused research on known minors without verifiable parental consent [6][7][5] |
Sources (7)
- 1https://docs.house.gov/meetings/IF/IF17/20251202/118714/BILLS-119pih-HR____KidsOnlineSafetyAct.pdfdocs.house.gov
- 2Kids Online Safety Act | U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthalblumenthal.senate.gov
- 3S.1748 - Kids Online Safety Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
- 4Bills 119hr7757ih.htmgovinfo.gov
- 5Text - H.R.7757 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): KIDS Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 6Text of H.R. 7757: KIDS Act (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 7Bills 119hr6273ih.htmgovinfo.gov
7. What positions have major tech companies like Meta and Google, or their lobbying arms, taken on KOSA during the 119th Congress?
| Google's Stance on KOSA | Promotes an alternative child-safety legislative framework, not KOSA [1] |
|---|---|
| NetChoice's Stance on KOSA | Urged Congress to reject KOSA [2] |
| KOSA Bill Numbers (119th Congress) | H.R. 6484 (House), S. 1748 (Senate) [3][4] |
Sources (4)
- 1Utah age assurance bill and Google’s alternative visionblog.google
- 2Congress Must Reject Landmark Censorship Legislation, KOSA - NetChoicenetchoice.org
- 3S.1748 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Kids Online Safety Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 4Titles - H.R.6484 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Kids Online Safety Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
8. Beyond Senator Cruz's endorsement, what are the public stances of other key members of the Senate Commerce Committee on S.1748 (KOSA)?
| Senate Commerce Committee Cosponsors | 19 of 28 members (May 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Previous Senate Vote for KOSA | 91-3 in previous Congress [3] |
| Senator Cruz Endorsement | May 2026 [1] |
Sources (7)
- 1Details for S. 1748: Kids Online Safety Act - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 2S. 1748 Bill - Kids Online Safety Act | Legisletterlegisletter.org
- 3Over 400 Groups Urge Congress to Pass Kids Online Safety Act - Fairplayfairplayforkids.org
- 4Ted Cruz backs Kids Online Safety Act in key movethehill.com
- 5Chair Cruz Promises KOSA Passage This Year - Fairplayfairplayforkids.org
- 6Senate Commerce uneasy with existing KOSA versions - Punchbowl Newspunchbowl.news
- 740 State AGs Urge Congress To Adopt Senate KOSA Bill - Social Media - United Statesmondaq.com
9. What legislative vehicles or must-pass bills in the 119th Congress could KOSA be attached to for expedited passage?
| Senate KOSA bill | S. 1748 (119th Congress) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| House KOSA incorporation | H.R. 7757 (Kids Internet and Digital Safety (KIDS) Act) [1][2][3][4] |
| Legislative Status (as of May 2026) | Stalled due to chamber differences [4][5] |
Sources (6)
- 1S.1748 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Kids Online Safety Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 2Kids online safety bills move forward from Senate, House panel – Roll Callrollcall.com
- 3Bills 119hr7757ih.htmcongress.gov
- 4Capitol to Capitol | March 17, 2026 - National...ncsl.org
- 5Comprehensive Online Safety Legislation Comes to the US: How KOSA is Copying UK, EU and Australian Laws - Lexologylexology.com
- 6Cruz backing KOSA, giving social media legislation a boostthehill.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 01, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (9)
- 1Kids Online Safety Act (S. 1748) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
- 2S.1748 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Kids Online Safety Act | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 3Capitol to Capitol | March 17, 2026 - National...ncsl.org
- 4Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? - Kalshikalshi.com
- 5Cruz backing KOSA, giving social media legislation a boostthehill.com
- 6Kids Online Safety Act | U.S. Senator Richard Blumenthalblumenthal.senate.gov
- 7Lawmakers push faster action on kids' online safety as Congress stalls on billkomonews.com
- 8Lawmakers push faster action on kids' online safety as Congress stalls on billnews3lv.com
- 9Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA): Protecting Children or Censoring the Internet? - State of Surveillancestateofsurveillance.org