Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the US to ban social media for children in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price for this market has maintained a sideways trend, trading within a very narrow range of 7.0% to 9.4%. Starting at 7.0%, the probability saw a modest increase to over 9%, where it has since stabilized. The most notable movement was the climb from the 7.0% level seen on April 25, 2026, to the peak of 9.4%. This increase appears to be a reaction to ongoing legislative activity in the US Congress, where bills like the Kids Off Social Media Act (KOSMA) are being actively considered. However, as none of these bills have been reported as enacted, the price has not moved beyond this low-probability range.
The market has established a clear support level at 7.0% and resistance near 9.4%. The total volume of 12,980 contracts suggests moderate interest, but the volume on recent days has been zero, indicating that traders may be holding their positions and awaiting new, decisive information. This lack of recent trading activity implies low conviction for a significant move in either direction. The overall market sentiment, as reflected by the consistently low price below 10%, is one of significant skepticism. Traders believe there is a very low probability that a federal social media ban for children will be enacted before the January 1, 2027 resolution date, despite the current legislative discussions.
  • KOSMA faces significant constitutional challenges regarding online speech and access.
  • White House supports children's online safety, but has not endorsed KOSMA.
  • Senate and House bills' differences may challenge their reconciliation for passage.
  • Specific 2026 federal polling data for minor social media bans is unavailable.
  • Senate committee action recommends S.278 "do pass," not full enactment.
  • The Kids Off Social Media Act faces a detailed legislative path.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 9.1% 5.8% Congress may advance legislation restricting children's access to social media platforms.

Current Context

US Congress is actively considering bills to restrict child social media access. Both the Senate bill S.278, known as the Kids Off Social Media Act (KOSMA), and its House companion H.R.7399, share the objective of prohibiting social media access for users under 13 [1][2]. S.278 additionally proposes restricting personalized recommendation systems for individuals under 17 and designates the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) for enforcement [1]. As of May 8, 2026, none of the reviewed sources indicate that either bill has been enacted into law [1][3][2]. However, as of early March 2026, children's online safety measures, including KOSA-related protections such as opting out of recommendation algorithms, were actively moving forward from Senate and House committees [4][5].
A 2026 ban faces enactment challenges and expert skepticism. The introduced version of H.R.7399, dated February 5, 2026, specifies that certain titles would "take effect 1 year after the date of enactment" [6]. This means that for a ban to be effective before January 1, 2027, enactment would need to occur within 2026 [6]. Public-facing social media experts, such as Sonia Livingstone, have critiqued blanket bans as an 'unfair' and 'lazy' approach, advocating instead for enhanced policing, enforcement, and safety-by-design regulations to protect children online [7].
No specific US prediction market addresses a general 2026 child social media ban. Research into prediction markets revealed a Polymarket contract concerning a potential ban on TikTok, which is distinct from a generalized social media ban for children [8]. Other prediction markets on Manifold were found to address similar bans in other countries, such as Australia, or more broadly about social media bans for teens by the end of 2026 in various countries [9][10]. However, no directly relevant prediction market specifically focused on a US ban of social media for children in 2026 was clearly identified in the results reviewed [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) |congress.gov
  2. 2H.R.7399 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Kids Off Social Media Actcongress.gov
  3. 3S. Rept. 119-33 - KIDS OFF SOCIAL MEDIA ACT 119th Congress (2025-2026)congress.gov
  4. 4Kids online safety bills move forward from Senate, House panel – Roll Callrollcall.com
  5. 5US Energy and Commerce Committee advances KIDS Act to full House vote | IAPPiapp.org
  6. 6Text of H.R. 7399: Kids Off Social Media Act (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  7. 7More countries weigh teen social media ban, experts warn it's 'lazy'cnbc.com
  8. 8TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Predictions & Od... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 9Which countries will ban social media for teens by EOY 2026? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  10. 10Will Australia rescind the social media ban for kids by 03/09/2026? | Manifoldmanifold.markets

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if US federal legislation banning social media for children under 18 (or a lower age) becomes law before January 1, 2027. This law must not permit parental consent to bypass the ban and must be signed by the President or enacted via veto override, having passed both full chambers. Otherwise, the market resolves to "No", such as if a presidential pocket veto expires or no qualifying law passes by the deadline, with outcomes verified by congress.gov.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.09 $0.91 9%

Market Discussion

The "Kids Off Social Media Act" (S.278) has been introduced in the 119th Congress (2025-2026) as a bill proposing a federal rule to ban social media access for children under 13 and restrict personalized recommendations for those under 17, with enforcement via the FTC [1][2][3]. However, a related FTC policy statement in February 2026 focuses on incentivizing age verification technologies to protect children online rather than declaring a social media ban [4]. Prediction markets are currently pricing the possibility of such a ban, indicating it is not yet enacted [5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  2. 2S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) |congress.gov
  3. 3S. Rept. 119-33 - KIDS OFF SOCIAL MEDIA ACT 119th Congress (2025-2026)congress.gov
  4. 4FTC Issues COPPA Policy Statement to Incentivize the Use of Age Verification Technologies to Protect Children Online | Federal Trade Commissionftc.gov
  5. 5US bans social media for children this year? - Kalshikalshi.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 69 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score23Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score69Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
72Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on KXSOCIALMEDIABAN-27JAN01 carried 53% of its $10 tape (print is 22d old)

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Yes” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
30Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract

Yes30
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Yes—
No significant move (2d)

Price was stable over the last 2 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Yes100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
23Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 30 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 5.5c slippage (~138% of a 4c contract)

$1,000 order: 30.0c slippage (~750% of a 4c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Yes30Market scoreLiquidity30Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 30
Liquidity
30 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (2d)

Price was stable over the last 2 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What is the current public position of the White House on KOSMA, and what executive actions could influence its passage in 2026?

White House Stance on Child Online SafetyCalls for Congress to pass stronger protections for children online [1][2]
White House LegislationPresident signed the TAKE IT DOWN Act (April 2026) [3][4]
KOSMA (S.278) StatusMoving through the Senate process (early 2026) [5][6][7]
The White House supports children's online safety but has not explicitly endorsed KOSMA. The administration has articulated a clear stance on advancing children's online health, safety, and privacy, advocating for Congress to enact more robust protections for children online [1][2]. However, the White House's public position on the Kids Off Social Media Act (KOSMA, S.278) has not been explicitly stated by name in available information. In April 2026, the White House emphasized the issue of online child abuse, noting that the president had signed the TAKE IT DOWN Act. This legislation is designed to safeguard children from harmful online content, including deepfake non-consensual intimate images [3][4]. While these actions reflect the Biden-Harris administration's commitment to protecting children online, the signing of the TAKE IT DOWN Act is not indicative of a "KOSMA" social media ban [3].
KOSMA is advancing through Congress, with no specific executive influence noted. As of early 2026, proponents in Congress describe KOSMA (S.278) as progressing through the Senate process [5][6][7]. No specific executive actions influencing the passage of KOSMA in 2026 were detailed in the research.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Biden-Harris Administration Takes Actions to Advance Kids’ Online Health, Safety, and Privacy | OSTP | The White Housebidenwhitehouse.archives.gov
  2. 2FACT SHEET: Biden-Harris Administration Announces Actions to Protect Youth Mental Health, Safety & Privacy Online | The White Housebidenwhitehouse.archives.gov
  3. 3Presidential Message on National Child Abuse Prevention Month – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  4. 4Presidential Message on Child Health Day – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  5. 5Chairman Cruz: KOSMA Meets Parents Where They’re At, Protects Kids Online - U.S....commerce.senate.gov
  6. 6Senate Commerce Passes KOSMA by Voice Voteprivacy-daily.com
  7. 7Kids Off Social Media Act gains House backing as Senate advances bill | Biometric Updatebiometricupdate.com

6. How do the provisions of the Senate's S.278 and the House's H.R.7399 (Kids Off Social Media Act) differ, and which differences pose the greatest challenge for reconciliation?

Shared Core RestrictionsProhibit accounts for children under 13, require deletion of children’s accounts/personal data, restrict personalized recommendations, impose E-rate-conditional school blocking [1][2][3][4]
Key Reconciliation AreasKnowledge standard for user age/status and permitted use of personal data in recommendation systems [2][3][5][6]
School/E-rate ChallengesDifferences in definitions, certification duties, or enforcement remedies for school provisions [1][2][3][7]
Both bills largely align on core restrictions for child online safety. The Senate's S.278 and the House's H.R.7399, both titled 'Kids Off Social Media Act,' share fundamental provisions aimed at protecting children online. These include prohibiting platforms from knowingly allowing children under 13 to create or maintain accounts and requiring the deletion of children’s accounts and associated personal data. Additionally, both bills generally restrict personalized recommendations for children and teens that rely on personal data, and they impose E-rate-conditional blocking requirements on schools [1][2][3][4].
Reconciliation challenges arise from specific drafting details and data use. Beyond these headline thresholds, the specific compliance triggers and scope outlined in the bills pose challenges. Particularly high-friction areas for reconciliation involve the precise knowledge standard required to determine a user’s age or status. Furthermore, the exact rules governing the use of personal data in recommendation systems, specifically delineating what is 'allowed' versus 'prohibited' in these contexts, represent significant points of divergence [2][3][5][6].
Divergent school and E-rate provisions present further reconciliation hurdles. A significant point of difference and challenge for reconciliation lies in the mechanics surrounding schools and E-rate services. While both S.278 and H.R.7399 condition the receipt of discounted services on implementing blocking and filtering measures, and require schools to submit internet safety policies, any variations between the two bills regarding definitions, certification duties, or enforcement remedies related to these school provisions are likely to be difficult to reconcile quickly [1][2][3][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Summary of S. 278: Kids Off Social Media Act - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  2. 2S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) |congress.gov
  3. 3Text of H.R. 7399: Kids Off Social Media Act (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  4. 4S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  5. 5Text of S. 278: Kids Off Social Media Act (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  6. 6Text of S. 278: Kids Off Social Media Act (Reported by Senate Committee version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  7. 7S. 278, Kids Off Social Media Actcbo.gov

7. What can the legislative history and enforcement of the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA) indicate about the potential challenges facing KOSMA's passage?

FTC COPPA Enforcement Cycle2025 –2026 [1][2][3]
COPPA Rule Review StartFebruary 25, 2026 [4][1]
COPPA New Requirements EffectiveApril 22, 2026 [4][1]
KOSMA faces significant constitutional challenges regarding online speech and access. The Kids Online Safety Act (KOSMA) primarily confronts legislative challenges due to constitutional concerns over broad access and speech restrictions. This type of hurdle was largely sidestepped by the Children's Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA), which operates as a privacy-data regime [5][6]. KOSMA's proposed scope, which seeks to prohibit social media accounts for individuals under 13 and restrict personalized recommendations for those under 17, introduces complex issues related to platform access, freedom of speech, and constitutional tailoring [7][8][9]. Groups such as NetChoice have voiced opposition, specifically highlighting First Amendment and age-verification concerns, indicating a legislative risk for KOSMA that differs from COPPA's more enforcement-focused approach [5][6].
KOSMA's future enforcement will likely encounter considerable political and legal obstacles. Even if KOSMA is enacted, its implementation and enforcement could become a significant political battleground, potentially involving injunction litigation risks, a scenario suggested by COPPA's regulatory history [1][2][3]. The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is actively prioritizing COPPA enforcement in its 2025–2026 cycle, with a focus on new compliance obligations [1][2][3]. This dynamic regulatory environment is further underscored by the FTC's initiation of a COPPA Rule review on February 25, 2026, specifically to address age-verification mechanisms, with new requirements anticipated to take effect by April 22, 2026 [4][1]. This demonstrates a recurring pattern where new child protection rules become intricately linked to ongoing operational and technical compliance disputes within rapidly evolving digital markets [4][1][3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1FTC prioritizes COPPA enforcement as new compliance obligations take effect | Davis Polkdavispolk.com
  2. 2Kids' Privacy (COPPA) | Federal Trade Commissionftc.gov
  3. 3FTC Finalizes Changes to Children’s Privacy Rule Limiting Companies’ Ability to Monetize Kids’ Data | Federal Trade Commissionftc.gov
  4. 4FTC Issues COPPA Policy Statement to Incentivize the Use of Age Verification Technologies to Protect Children Online | Federal Trade Commissionftc.gov
  5. 5NetChoice Statement for the Record to Senate Commerce Committee: KOSMA’s Unconstitutional Government Censorship - NetChoicenetchoice.org
  6. 6The Kids Off Social Media Act (KOSMA) Moves Forward - Social Media - United Statesmondaq.com
  7. 7Kids Off Social Media Act | U.S. Senator Brian Schatzschatz.senate.gov
  8. 8KOSMA Bill Advances: Proposed Law to Ban Social Media for Kids Unnatlawreview.com
  9. 9S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov

8. What recent public polling data is available from 2026 on voter support for federal legislation banning social media access for minors?

NJ Voter Support for Online Child Protection75% of voters in April 2026 [1]
Trust in Parents for Social Media Oversight69% of Americans [2]
Kids Off Social Media Act ReintroductionJanuary 2025 [3][4][5]
Specific 2026 federal polling data for minor social media bans is unavailable. While specific public polling data from 2026 on voter support for federal legislation banning social media access for minors is not available, state-level polling in New Jersey in April 2026 showed strong support. In New Jersey, 75% of voters favored stronger regulations to protect children online, even if it meant limiting some online freedoms [1].
Federal legislative efforts aim to restrict minor access to social media. The "Kids Off Social Media Act," reintroduced in January 2025, proposes prohibiting social media accounts for children under 13 and restricting algorithmic recommendations for users under 17 [3][4][5]. This legislation has garnered bipartisan support [3][6]. Additionally, the "Protecting Kids on Social Media Act," introduced in April 2023, similarly aims to set a minimum age of 13 for social media use and require parental consent for users under 18 [7]. However, contrasting this legislative push, 69% of Americans indicated trust in parents to oversee their children's social media activities [2].
Sources (7)
  1. 1stockton.edu
  2. 2fire.org
  3. 3issuevoter.org
  4. 4senate.govschatz.senate.gov
  5. 5wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6house.govluna.house.gov
  7. 7socialmediavictims.org

9. What is the legislative pathway and timeline for the Kids Off Social Media Act (KOSMA) in 2026 for it to become law before the 2027 deadline?

S.278 Senate Committee StatusOrdered reported favorably without amendment (February 5, 2025) [1][2][3]
S.278 Senate Floor Vote StatusNot yet reached a floor vote [2]
H.R. 7399 House Committee StatusReferred to House Committee on Energy and Commerce (February 5, 2026) [4]
The Kids Off Social Media Act (KOSMA) faces a detailed legislative path to enactment. For the Kids Off Social Media Act to become law before the January 1, 2027, deadline, it requires several legislative steps, including House committee action, House passage, Senate floor passage of S.278, and any necessary final reconciliation or a second passage in 2026 [2][1][4]. The Senate bill, S.278, was introduced on January 28, 2025, and subsequently received a favorable report from the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee on February 5, 2025 [1][2][3]. Despite this committee-level advancement, GovTrack indicates that no roll-call votes have occurred for S.278, signifying that it has not yet advanced to a Senate floor vote [2].
House companion legislation for KOSMA remains in early committee stages. A House companion bill, H.R. 7399, was introduced on February 5, 2026, and referred to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. This means that as of its introduction, it had not completed House committee markup or passage [4]. In a May 27, 2025, publication, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) had assumed S.278 would be enacted before the end of fiscal year 2025, suggesting their initial planning did not anticipate a later enactment timeline [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1S. Rept. 119-33 - KIDS OFF SOCIAL MEDIA ACT 119th Congress (2025-2026)congress.gov
  2. 2Details for S. 278: Kids Off Social Media Act - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  3. 3S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  4. 4Text of H.R. 7399: Kids Off Social Media Act (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  5. 5S. 278, Kids Off Social Media Actcbo.gov

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

S. 278, the Kids Off Social Media Act, a 119th Congress bill, has an introduced text dated Feb. 5, 2026 [1]. Senate committee action describes recommending the bill “do pass,” but this does not establish enactment as law by 2026-05-08 [2][3]. The bill focuses on prohibiting under-13 access and accounting, and restricting personalized recommendation systems for individuals under 17, with school-related limitations [4][2].
In the House, kids online safety bills were reported to be moving forward from the committee level on 2026-03-06 [5]. Specifically, the KIDS Act advanced to a full House vote via a roll call in committee (28-24) on 2026-03-09 [6]. Available sources indicate bill advancement and planned enforcement/implementation language, but not passage and signing into law by May 2026 [3][6][2]. A Jan 1, 2027, resolution window is used by one market for legislation becoming law after issuance and before that date [7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 01, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1Text of H.R. 7399: Kids Off Social Media Act (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  2. 2S. Rept. 119-33 - KIDS OFF SOCIAL MEDIA ACT 119th Congress (2025-2026)congress.gov
  3. 3S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  4. 4S.278 - Kids Off Social Media Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) |congress.gov
  5. 5Kids online safety bills move forward from Senate, House panel – Roll Callrollcall.com
  6. 6Kids Internet and Digital Safety Act advances to full House vote | K-12 Divek12dive.com
  7. 7US bans social media for children this year? - Kalshikalshi.com