US-Iran nuclear deal?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect a US-Iran nuclear deal Before Jan 20, 2029, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market has traded sideways in a narrow band, pricing a US-Iran deal as a low-probability outcome. The contract remained between 2.0% and 5.0% for most of its history before a significant move on August 2, 2026. On that date, the price jumped to 7.0%. This price action was a direct reaction to President Trump's announcement that "parameters" for a deal had been reached, which coincided with his decision to halt planned military strikes on Iran.
The August 2 price spike was supported by a surge in volume, confirming the news event as the primary driver. While total volume is high at 183,465 contracts, daily activity appears concentrated around such catalysts. The market has established a clear resistance level at 10.0% and support near 2.0%. The recent move to 7.0% places the contract in the upper end of its historical range, but overall sentiment remains skeptical. The market has priced in the positive development of de-escalation but has not moved to price a completed deal as a likely event before resolution.
- Since last update (~45d): Market probability rose +4.0pp, model +1.3pp, widening the negative edge to -3.6pp.
- Probability for a deal by Jan 1, 2028 fell 30.0pp (market-led), compressing the edge.
- Probability for a deal by Dec 1, 2026 fell 22.0pp (market-led), compressing the edge.
- Two new outcomes (Before Feb 1, 2027, Before Mar 1, 2027) were added; Before May removed.
- A deal before January 20, 2029, appears likely with ample time for resolution.
- A full deal by September 1, 2026, is highly improbable due to complexity and review.
- Diplomatic engagement increased as President Trump announced parameters for a deal.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 11.0% | 6.9% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 23.0% | 20.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 22.0% | 20.2% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 30.0% | 26.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 31.0% | 26.9% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
Current Context
President Trump announced parameters for a US-Iran deal. On August 2, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump halted planned military strikes on Iran, stating that an outline or "parameters" for a deal had been reached [^][^][^][^]. This proposed agreement, according to President Trump, includes the immediate and total opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran's nuclear threat [^][^][^]. This follows a June 2026 announcement by President Trump that a deal was complete, though no mutually agreed-upon text was made public, and U.S. and Iranian accounts of the agreement differed [^]. That earlier agreement initiated a 60-day period of negotiations focused on Iran's nuclear program and U.S. sanctions [^]. Despite two days of clashes, talks between the U.S. and Iran over a permanent peace deal continue [^]. However, previous ceasefire agreements and de-escalation attempts throughout 2026 repeatedly collapsed, fueling skepticism about the durability of the latest announcement [^][^]. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar report "cautious optimism" regarding the potential for resuming stalled negotiations [^], but the prospect of a nuclear deal is considered "very far away" [^].
Verification of Iran's nuclear program remains unconfirmed. As of mid-2026, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported an inability to verify the status of Iran's nuclear facilities or ensure no diversion of nuclear material [^][^]. This challenge stems from Iran's lack of cooperation and restricted access following military strikes in 2025 and 2026 [^][^]. IAEA inspectors have been withdrawn from Iran since June 2025, further complicating verification of the nuclear program's state [^][^][^]. In June 2026, Iran reaffirmed in a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons [^]. Nevertheless, the actual status of its nuclear program remains unclear after U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 [^][^].
Ongoing conflict and political hurdles complicate negotiations. The context for these negotiations includes an ongoing "US-Iran war," with the Houthis opening a new front [^][^][^]. Congress maintains oversight authority under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) for agreements related to Iran's nuclear program [^][^]. However, the Administration's position on whether this specific deal requires congressional submission is a potential point of contention [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Before Mar 1, 2027
📈 August 02, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 20.0% to 33.0%
What happened: The provided research indicates the specified 13.0 percentage point spike in the "US-Iran nuclear deal?" market reflects a 7-day swing observed earlier in 2026 (e.g., May and June), rather than a singular event on August 2, 2026 [^][^][^]. However, on August 2, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly announced he had canceled a planned military strike on Iran, stating that an outline of a deal to end Iran's nuclear threat and reopen the Strait of Hormuz had been agreed upon by Tehran [^][^][^]. This significant traditional news announcement would have strongly driven up the perceived probability of a nuclear deal, leading to a substantial market movement on that date [^][^][^]. Social media was not identified as the primary source of this announcement.
📈 July 31, 2026: 8.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 27.0%
What happened: President Donald Trump's announcement on July 28, 2026, stating there was a "good chance" of progress in US-Iran talks, appears to be the primary driver of the market spike [^]. This declaration from a key figure, disseminated widely through news and social media, significantly increased optimism for a nuclear deal. The statement led the market movement, preceding the 8.0 percentage point spike on July 31, 2026. While not originating on social media, such a high-profile announcement would have been a significant contributing accelerant via social platforms, amplifying its impact.
📉 July 23, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 31.0% to 17.0%
What happened: The 14.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on July 23, 2026, was primarily driven by the preceding "nearly two weeks of escalation" in military hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, including U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure [^]. This intense conflict made the prospect of a nuclear deal seem distant, with contemporary expert commentary stating that "the question of getting to a nuclear deal is, you know, very far away at this time" [^]. No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as leading or coinciding with this price move. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this particular market shift.
Outcome: Before Feb 1, 2027
📉 August 01, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 28.0% to 18.0%
What happened: No direct evidence was found within the provided web research linking a specific social media post, viral narrative, or traditional news announcement to a 10.0 percentage point drop in the "US-Iran nuclear deal?" prediction market on August 1, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. While President Trump announced on August 2, 2026, that "parameters of a deal" had been agreed upon, this event followed the observed market movement and would typically increase, not decrease, the perceived likelihood of a deal [^][^][^][^][^]. Similarly, July 2026 polling indicating Iranian public opposition to nuclear weapons and past agreements did not directly coincide with an identified August 1st catalyst for such a sharp decline [^][^]. Therefore, based on the available information, social media was not identified as a primary driver or even a contributing accelerant for this specific price movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The prediction market resolves YES if a US-Iran nuclear deal is reached before its specific deadline, and NO if it is not. Each contract within the series has a distinct deadline for resolution, with examples including March 1, 2027; January 1, 2028; and January 20, 2029. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in the provided market description.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | $0.23 | $0.78 | 23% |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | $0.23 | $0.78 | 22% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.30 | $0.71 | 30% |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | $0.33 | $0.69 | 31% |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0.37 | $0.66 | 33% |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | $0.45 | $0.56 | 46% |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | $0.54 | $0.48 | 52% |
Market Discussion
As of August 2, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the suspension of planned military strikes on Iran, citing "perimeters of a deal" that include ending Iran's nuclear threat [^][^][^]. However, Iran has not officially confirmed the existence of such a deal, with Iranian semi-official agencies dismissing the claims as a "lie" or "wish list" [^][^][^]. Prediction market sentiment remains highly skeptical of a final nuclear deal being reached by late August 2026, assigning very low probabilities, reflecting the "whipsaw diplomacy" of volatile and unconfirmed diplomatic claims [^][^][^][^][^].
5. Trust Index
Largest single print on KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27 carried 88% of its $7,932 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 2d old)
Integrity risk· Large trades
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score79Good
Trade quality20% of score54Caution
Trust score74Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How do the reported 'parameters' of the 2026 US-Iran agreement compare to the key provisions of the 2015 JCPOA?
| MOU Signing Date | June 17, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Negotiation Window | 60-day window [^][^][^][^] |
| Reconstruction Funding | $300 billion [^][^][^][^] |
The 2026 US-Iran agreement is an interim MOU, differing from the 2015 JCPOA. This Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) lacks specific, binding nuclear limits, contrasting with the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was a finalized comprehensive nuclear agreement [^][^][^][^]. While the 2026 MOU commits both sides to "immediately address" nuclear issues and leaves concrete benchmarks to future negotiations, the 2015 JCPOA directly imposed comprehensive nuclear provisions [^][^][^][^].
The 2026 MOU, signed in Versailles, outlines broader strategic and economic goals. On June 17, 2026, the US and Iran signed this 14-point MOU, aiming to end recent military hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and establish a 60-day window to negotiate a comprehensive final agreement [^][^][^][^]. Key economic provisions of the 2026 MOU include a commitment by the US and regional partners to develop a plan for at least $300 billion in reconstruction funding for Iran, and the eventual termination of all sanctions, contingent upon the final deal [^][^][^][^].
7. What role will the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) play in the timeline for ratifying a potential US-Iran deal in 2026?
| INARA Review Period | 30 days [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| INARA Legal Status | Legally binding in 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Predicted Deal Completion | December 31, 2026 [^][^][^] |
The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act mandates a congressional review period for agreements. The Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act (INARA) of 2015 requires a 30-day congressional review period for any nuclear-related agreement with Iran, a mandate that remains legally binding in 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Despite this requirement, the Trump administration has reportedly not complied with INARA concerning the June 2026 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran. This non-compliance has initiated significant debate among legal experts and lawmakers regarding the administration's apparent disregard for statutory oversight [^][^][^][^][^].
Congressional intent for a vote faces significant challenges to enforcement. While there is bipartisan agreement within Congress that any final deal should be subject to a vote, substantial doubt exists about Congress's ability or political will to enforce INARA compliance or to override a presidential veto if the administration continues to bypass the legislative review process [^][^][^]. Consequently, INARA may not significantly influence the ratification timeline for a potential US-Iran deal in 2026, particularly if the administration circumvents the act [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets currently track 'December 31, 2026' as a leading timeframe for a final US-Iran nuclear deal, though market sentiment indicated growing skepticism as of July 2026 [^][^][^].
8. What evidence corroborates the 'cautious optimism' from Pakistani and Qatari mediators regarding a finalized US-Iran deal?
| Resumption of talks | Cautious optimism as of August 2, 2026 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Islamabad MoU timeline | 60-day timeline expiring mid-August 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Deal likelihood (2026) | Under 40% (by year-end 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have expressed cautious optimism regarding US-Iran talks. This outlook, articulated as of August 2, 2026, follows President Trump's decision to cancel planned military strikes on Iran [^][^][^]. The optimism is supported by ongoing direct communication between regional mediators and both Tehran and Washington, coupled with a proposed two-week ceasefire formula designed to facilitate formal negotiations [^][^][^]. These diplomatic efforts are grounded in the 'Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding,' signed in June 2026, which established a 60-day negotiation period, expiring in mid-August 2026, aimed at achieving a final deal, a temporary ceasefire, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^].
Analysts and markets remain skeptical of a comprehensive agreement. Despite these diplomatic initiatives and ongoing discussions, observers and prediction markets express significant doubt about the prospects of a full resolution [^][^][^][^]. As of early July, prediction markets indicated that the likelihood of a final nuclear deal being reached by the end of 2026 stood at under 40% [^][^][^][^]. This prevailing skepticism is largely attributed to deep-seated mistrust between the parties and the inherent technical complexities involved in nuclear negotiations [^][^][^][^]. An American official further underscored this sentiment by stating that a nuclear deal is currently considered "very far away" [^].
9. What alternative data sources can be used to monitor Iran's nuclear activities in the absence of IAEA inspectors in 2026?
| IAEA inspector withdrawal | July 2025 [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Lack of IAEA access for verification | Nearly year-long [^][^] |
| Alternative monitoring methods | High-resolution satellite imagery, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) [^][^][^][^][^] |
Alternative data sources are now crucial for monitoring Iran's nuclear activities. In the absence of IAEA inspectors, who withdrew from Iran in July 2025, monitoring now relies on high-resolution satellite imagery, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) [^][^][^][^][^]. This fundamental shift addresses the need for continued surveillance of Iran's nuclear program without direct international oversight.
These alternative sources are specifically employed to track fortification, construction, and potential damage at critical nuclear-related sites. Key locations monitored include Natanz, Fordow, and Pickaxe Mountain (Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā) [^][^][^][^][^]. Institutions such as the Institute for Science and International Security specifically analyze high-resolution satellite imagery to gather this vital intelligence [^][^].
Severe constraints hinder current nuclear verification efforts, making comprehensive assessment difficult. The IAEA has noted a nearly year-long lack of access, preventing the verification of enriched uranium stocks (HEU/LEU) or nuclear facilities [^][^]. Iran's continued refusal to implement the Additional Protocol and its violation of modified Code 3.1 further impede the ability to establish a new nuclear baseline for assessment [^][^].
10. What specific military or economic events in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a collapse of the current US-Iran negotiations before 2027?
| Negotiation Window Stalled | 60-day window [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Tanker Attacks | July 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Nuclear Deal Confidence | 38% by year-end 2026 (mid-July 2026) [^][^] |
Renewed military tensions in July 2026 jeopardized US-Iran nuclear talks. Attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz during that month severely jeopardized negotiations for a US-Iran nuclear deal, stalling a 60-day window intended for a final agreement. This critical period was built around a June 14, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) [^][^][^][^][^]. In response to these actions, the United States escalated economic pressure by revoking oil sanction waivers (General Licence X1) that had been part of an interim agreement [^][^].
Strait of Hormuz control is Iran's critical 'red line' and deterrence tool. For Iran, maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz is paramount, functioning both as an economic lifeline and a primary means of deterring US military and economic pressure [^][^]. This strategic significance has historically fostered a 'no war, no peace' dynamic, where military actions and inherent volatility in the Strait frequently cause diplomatic momentum to collapse [^][^][^]. Consequently, as of mid-July 2026, prediction markets reflected a significant drop in confidence for a final US-Iran nuclear deal by year-end, with implied probabilities falling to approximately 38% due to the stalled negotiations [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
As of August 2, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump halted planned military strikes against Iran, citing progress on a proposed deal [^][^][^][^]. This alleged deal includes the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran's nuclear threat [^][^]. The conflict started on February 28, 2026, with previous de-escalation efforts, such as a June 2026 memorandum of understanding, failing to hold [^][^]. In June 2026, President Trump announced a "Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," though no official text was released, and accounts of its contents varied between U.S. and Iranian sources [^]. This agreement initiated a 60-day negotiation period on Iran's nuclear program and U.S. sanctions, with a formal signing reportedly scheduled for June 19, 2026 [^]. Congress holds oversight authority over nuclear agreements with Iran, though the Administration has explored bypassing this review process [^][^][^].
Key bullish catalysts include recent diplomatic mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, alongside a mutual incentive to avoid prolonged conflict and economic disruption [^] [^] [^] . | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^]. Conversely, bearish catalysts are historical mistrust, the fragility of previous ceasefires, and skepticism regarding the substance of the current proposal [^][^][^].
Prediction markets remain skeptical about a final, formal US-Iran nuclear deal [^] [^] . December 31 Leads at 30% | Live Odds" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. Traders assign the highest probability for resolution by year-end (December 31, 2026) at approximately 30% [^][^]. As of June 2026, Polymarket showed a 66% probability for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 01, 2026
- Closes: January 20, 2029
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: As of August 2, 2026, U.S.
- Trigger: President Donald Trump halted planned military strikes against Iran, citing progress on a proposed deal [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This alleged deal includes the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran's nuclear threat [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The conflict started on February 28, 2026, with previous de-escalation efforts, such as a June 2026 memorandum of understanding, failing to hold [^] [^] .
14. Related News
Last updated: August 2, 2026, 12:23 UTC
Trump Halting Iran Strike Lifts Near-Term Nuclear Deal Probabilities
Odds of a US-Iran nuclear agreement being reached by early 2027 saw a significant increase in Sunday's trading session, following President Donald Trump's weekend announcement that he would hold off o...
Last updated: August 2, 2026, 12:23 UTC
Skepticism Over 60-Day Iran Talks Timeline Drives Down Near-Term Deal Odds
The release of details from a new U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has prompted traders to sharply discount the odds of a comprehensive peace deal being reached in the near term. The agreement, s...
Last updated: August 2, 2026, 12:23 UTC
US-Iran Deal Odds Surge for 2026 After Trump Announcement
The prediction market for a US-Iran nuclear deal experienced a significant repricing on Saturday, May 23, 2026, following President Donald Trump’s announcement that an agreement has been "largely nego...
Last updated: August 2, 2026, 12:23 UTC
US-Iran Deal Market Shifts Timeline to Autumn 2026
In the trading session on Friday, May 22, 2026, the prediction market for a new US-Iran nuclear agreement saw a significant repricing of its expected timeline. Probabilities for a deal being reached i...
Last updated: August 2, 2026, 12:23 UTC
Market Boosts Odds of Summer US-Iran Deal on Diplomatic Progress
The prediction market for a US-Iran nuclear deal shifted significantly on Wednesday, May 06, 2026, as traders repriced for a much shorter timeline to an agreement. Probabilities surged across all time...
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 3 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
- KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN: NO (Jun 01, 2026)
- KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG: NO (Aug 01, 2026)
