Topic tracker · Politics
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (0 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 12, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/11 - 5/17) | May 19, 2026 | 95.0% vs 97.0% | Report → |
| Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (5/4 - 5/10) | May 12, 2026 | 63.6% vs 75.0% | Report → |
| Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (4/27 - 5/3) | May 5, 2026 | 85.0% vs 89.0% | Report → |
