Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: James Comey at 0.0% model vs 100.0% market, suggesting a significant divergence in expectations for who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026. This indicates a strong disagreement on the likelihood of the most likely outcome.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The price for this market has followed a significant upward trend, starting at a 33.0% probability and reaching a high of 61.0%. The most dramatic movement was a 15.0 percentage point spike on April 28, 2026, when the price jumped from 33.0% to 48.0%. The provided context does not offer a specific news event or other market factor on that date to explain this sharp increase in perceived probability. Since that spike, the price has continued to climb, peaking at 61.0% before settling at its current level of 53.0%.
The market shows a total trading volume of 3,877 contracts, though sample data points indicate periods of zero volume, which could suggest that price movements sometimes occur on low liquidity. The initial price of 33.0% has acted as a clear support level from which the market has not dropped. The peak of 61.0% has established a resistance level that has not yet been surpassed. Overall, the sustained price action well above the starting point suggests that market sentiment has shifted significantly. Traders are currently pricing the likelihood of a "YES" resolution at 53.0%, indicating a majority belief that the event will occur before the resolution date.
- Upcoming 2026 Supreme Court rulings may redefine executive power over investigations.
- Federal prosecutors initiated a criminal investigation into Letitia James in 2026.
- James Comey faces federal criminal charges; an indictment was announced in 2026.
- New DOJ fraud division's 2026 priorities likely intensify federal program investigations.
- The market price experienced a significant spike on April 28, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz | 17.0% | 8.1% | As a public official, he may face scrutiny over official conduct. |
| Ilhan Omar | 49.0% | 36.3% | Her past political controversies could lead to future federal investigations. |
| Barack Obama | 7.1% | 2.7% | Former presidents rarely face federal charges, but new information could emerge. |
| Bill Clinton | 8.0% | 3.1% | As a former president, he could potentially face charges if new evidence arises. |
| Letitia James | 53.0% | 40.7% | Her high-profile investigations may lead to scrutiny over her official duties. |
Current Context
An Army soldier was charged with federal crimes in April 2026. Gannon Ken Van Dyke was indicted on April 23, 2026, facing charges including unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction [1][2][3][4][5][6]. These allegations assert that Van Dyke leveraged classified information from "Operation Absolute Resolve," a U.S. military effort to capture Nicolás Maduro, to place profitable bets on the Polymarket prediction marketplace [1][2][3][4][5][6]. On April 26, 2026, Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to all charges [3]. This case represents a landmark as the first instance where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has charged an individual with insider trading involving event contracts [3][4][6].
Federal anti-fraud initiatives and oversight are significantly increasing. The White House launched a new National Fraud Enforcement Division within the Department of Justice on January 8, 2026, dedicated to aggressively investigating and prosecuting those who defraud federal programs [7]. Additionally, executive orders in March 2026 established a dedicated task force to combat cybercrime and fraud, accelerating agency efforts to address vulnerabilities [7]. Congressional committees also intensified oversight in early 2026, focusing on potential corruption within executive agencies, fraud in federally funded state programs (such as Minnesota's social services), and judicial impeachment proceedings [8][9][10]. Federal contractors and grant recipients are experiencing heightened scrutiny regarding fund use and compliance [9]. A federal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which began in November 2025 concerning his congressional testimony, concluded by late April 2026, clearing the way for a new Federal Reserve chair nomination [8][11].
Prediction market regulation is rapidly evolving alongside key Supreme Court decisions. The legal landscape for online prediction markets is developing quickly, marked by ongoing jurisdictional conflicts between federal and state authorities [12]. Federal regulators, including the CFTC and the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York, have clearly articulated their intention to prosecute fraud, manipulation, and insider trading within these markets [3][4][5][6][13]. Proposed legislation, such as the PREDICT Act, seeks to prohibit government officials from trading on political events in prediction markets to prevent insider trading [12][2]. In broader legal developments, the Supreme Court is expected to issue its remaining opinions for the 2025-2026 term in May/June 2026 [14]. Among these, the Slaughter case addresses the President's authority to remove members of independent agencies, which could reconfigure the power of regulatory bodies and the executive branch [15][16][17][18][19]. A decision expanding presidential power might lead to significant shifts in workplace regulation and agency authority [19]. Other rulings are also anticipated on matters including copyright infringement, immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, tariffs, and gun control [15][16][20][17][14][18].
Sources (20)
- 1justice.gov
- 2lowenstein.com
- 3airandspaceforces.com
- 4foley.com
- 5mondaq.com
- 6dentons.com
- 7sidley.com
- 8uspresidentialreport.com
- 9pillsburylaw.com
- 10hklaw.com
- 11alston.com
- 12rotowire.com
- 13kesq.com
- 14reason.com
- 15rutgers.edulaw.rutgers.edu
- 16jacksonlewis.com
- 17substack.comemilyinyourphone.substack.com
- 18oedigital.comenergynews.oedigital.com
- 19fisherphillips.com
- 20americanbar.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 28, 2026: 15.0pp spike
Price increased from 33.0% to 48.0%
Outcome: Letitia James
What happened: The provided research does not contain information about social media activity, news, or market factors on April 28, 2026, that would explain the 15.0 percentage point price spike for Letitia James being charged with a federal crime. While a hypothetical scenario described her federal indictment in October 2025, those charges were reportedly dismissed in November 2025, with subsequent attempts for indictment declined in December 2025, predating the market movement [1]. Without information specific to April 28, 2026, it is not possible to identify the primary driver of this particular price movement. Consequently, there is no evidence to assess the role of social media activity as a primary driver or accelerant for this event.
Sources (1)
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is formally charged with a federal crime after the market's issuance and before January 1, 2027. Formal charges require a new criminal complaint, information, or indictment filed with an appropriate court, including military courts or pre-trial diversion agreements; arrests, civil lawsuits, administrative actions, traffic violations, sealed charges, or the reinstatement of charges filed prior to issuance are excluded. If no such charges are filed by the deadline, the market resolves to "No"; the market closes early if charges are filed, otherwise by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 pm EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Brennan | $0.68 | $0.36 | 64% |
| Letitia James | $0.55 | $0.47 | 53% |
| Ilhan Omar | $0.49 | $0.52 | 49% |
| Jack Smith | $0.36 | $0.69 | 36% |
| James Clapper | $0.30 | $0.73 | 30% |
| Adam Schiff | $0.35 | $0.70 | 29% |
| Peter Strzok | $0.32 | $0.71 | 29% |
| Fani Willis | $0.29 | $0.75 | 24% |
| Raúl Castro | $0.31 | $0.77 | 24% |
| Gustavo Petro | $0.18 | $0.87 | 21% |
| Keith Ellison | $0.21 | $0.84 | 21% |
| Hunter Biden | $0.16 | $0.87 | 20% |
| Mark Milley | $0.20 | $0.83 | 20% |
| Chris Krebs | $0.18 | $0.85 | 18% |
| Christopher Wray | $0.17 | $0.86 | 17% |
| Joe Kent | $0.17 | $0.87 | 17% |
| Tim Walz | $0.20 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Lisa Cook | $0.15 | $0.86 | 15% |
| Alvin Bragg | $0.12 | $0.91 | 14% |
| Jacob Frey | $0.13 | $0.91 | 13% |
| Elissa Slotkin | $0.11 | $0.93 | 12% |
| Tucker Carlson | $0.11 | $0.97 | 12% |
| Anthony Fauci | $0.15 | $0.86 | 11% |
| Liz Cheney | $0.12 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Hillary Clinton | $0.13 | $0.90 | 10% |
| Mark Kelly | $0.09 | $0.93 | 9% |
| Bill Clinton | $0.09 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Jerome Powell | $0.08 | $0.94 | 8% |
| Joe Biden | $0.08 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Barack Obama | $0.09 | $0.93 | 7% |
| Pam Bondi | $0.09 | $0.94 | 6% |
| Chris Christie | $0.06 | $0.97 | 6% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively speculating on the likelihood of several public figures facing federal charges in 2026, with John Brennan holding the highest probability at 64%, followed by Letitia James (53%), and Ilhan Omar (49%). Arguments for 'Yes' include specific scrutiny over Ilhan Omar's alleged connection to state funding involving her sister's company, and a strong conviction among some that figures like John Brennan are "guilty as hell" and will face charges. While some doubt existing charges for James Comey will stick, the main discussion revolves around anticipated federal indictments for other prominent individuals.
5. Trust Index
Integrity risk· Resolution quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score63Caution
Trade quality20% of score31High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score56Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. Which upcoming 2026 Supreme Court rulings on executive power could most directly impact federal investigations into figures like Christopher Wray or Jack Smith?
| Case 1 | Trump v. Cook (concerns presidential removal of independent officials) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Case 2 | Trump v. Slaughter (concerns for-cause removal protections for independent agencies) [4][5][6] |
| Trump v. Cook Oral Argument | Jan. 21, 2026 [3] |
Upcoming Supreme Court cases may redefine presidential power over investigations. Two significant Supreme Court cases, Trump v. Cook (25A312) and Trump v. Slaughter (No. 25-332), are scheduled for the 2026 docket and directly pertain to the independence of executive-branch investigative and prosecutorial functions [1][4]. Both cases examine the president’s authority to remove independent officials and the extent of judicial intervention to prevent such removals [1][4][6]. The outcomes could significantly impact the structural independence of personnel involved in investigative and prosecutorial decisions, potentially influencing federal investigations targeting figures such as Christopher Wray or Jack Smith [1][4][6].
Specific rulings will shape executive control over independent agency personnel. Trump v. Cook specifically challenges the president’s authority to remove Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, with oral arguments set for January 21, 2026 [1][2][3]. A ruling that diminishes the insulation of such officials from presidential control could establish a precedent affecting other investigation-related personnel, potentially leading to increased executive control over high-profile investigations within the Department of Justice or other executive branches [1][2][3]. Concurrently, Trump v. Slaughter addresses the constitutionality of 'for-cause' removal protections for independent multimember agencies under the separation of powers doctrine, and whether courts have the authority to block such removals [4][5][6]. These questions are fundamental to the structural independence of individuals who influence investigative and prosecutorial outcomes [4][5][6]. While external prediction markets track who might face federal charges in 2026, they do not specifically attribute such predictions to Supreme Court rulings [7][8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Trump v. Cook | Supreme Court Bulletin | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institutelaw.cornell.edu
- 2Trump v. Cook: an explainer | SCOTUSblogscotusblog.com
- 3Trump v. Cook (Independent Agencies) (25A312) | SCOTUSblogscotusblog.com
- 4Trump v. Slaughter | Supreme Court Bulletin | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institutesupct.law.cornell.edu
- 5Supreme Court To Determine Whether the President Can Remove Members of Multi-Member Federal Agencies | Last Month at the Supreme Court®lastmonthatthesupremecourt.com
- 6Supreme Court To Determine Whether The President Can Remove Members Of Multi-Member Federal Agencies - Trials & Appeals & Compensation - United Statesmondaq.com
- 7Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 8Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? | Gemini Predictionsgemini.com
- 9Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
7. What is the current status of publicly known federal investigations or grand jury proceedings involving figures like Fani Willis or Letitia James in 2026?
| Letitia James (2026) | New federal criminal investigation on financial transactions initiated [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Letitia James (Oct 2025) | Federal grand jury indictment on bank-fraud and false-statements charges, later dismissed/halted [3][4][5] |
| Fani Willis (2026) | Scrutiny and investigations related to a Department of Justice grant, not personal grand-jury proceedings [6][7][8] |
Federal prosecutors initiated a new criminal investigation into Letitia James in 2026. This probe centered on financial transactions between James and her longtime hairdresser Iyesata Marsh [1][2]. This development followed previous federal grand jury proceedings against James, which concluded in late 2025. Specifically, in October 2025, a federal grand jury in the Eastern District of Virginia had indicted James on charges of bank-fraud and false-statements [3][5]. However, a federal judge subsequently dismissed or halted that prosecution, and later grand juries declined to issue new indictments [4][5].
Fani Willis's office faced scrutiny over a federal grant in 2026. Public attention focused on investigations related to a $2 million grant from the Department of Justice [6][7]. These inquiries specifically concern funding and eligibility questions regarding the grant [6][7]. It is important to note that this scrutiny and these investigations are directed towards her office concerning the grant, rather than confirmed federal grand-jury charging proceedings against Willis personally [6][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1Prosecutors Said to Pursue New Investigation of Letitia Jamesnytimes.com
- 2U.S. prosecutors pursue new criminal probe into New York AG Letitia James over financial transactions - CBS Newscbsnews.com
- 3New York AG Letitia James indicted in Virginia after investigation by Trump's DOJ - CBS Newscbsnews.com
- 4Grand jury rejects new mortgage fraud indictment against New York Attorney General Letitia James: NPRnpr.org
- 5Prosecution of Letitia Jamesen.wikipedia.org
- 6Fani Willis Faces New Investigation Into Grant She Received From Biden's DOJ | WLT Reportwltreport.com
- 7Fani Willis Under Investigation Over $2 Million Grant from Biden DOJ - Slay Newsslaynews.com
- 8Judge denies Fani Willis' attempt to withhold payment as co-defendants seek nearly $17 million in legal fees - CBS Atlantacbsnews.com
8. How do the potential federal charges against former intelligence officials like James Comey compare to those against Peter Strzok regarding statutory basis and jurisdiction?
| Comey 2026 Indictment Location | Eastern District of North Carolina [1] |
|---|---|
| Comey Prior Case Location | Eastern District of Virginia [2][3] |
| Strzok Criminal Charges Identified | None publicly identified with specific statutory bases or charging court [4][5][6] |
James Comey faces two distinct sets of federal criminal charges. The Department of Justice announced a federal grand jury indictment in 2026, charging Comey in the Eastern District of North Carolina with threatening the President under 18 U.S.C. § 871 and transmitting a threat in interstate commerce under 18 U.S.C. § 875(c) [1]. These charges stemmed from an alleged Instagram image posted on May 15, 2025 [1]. Additionally, an earlier case record summarizes two congressional-related counts against Comey: false statements under 18 U.S.C. § 1001(a)(2) and obstruction of a congressional proceeding under 18 U.S.C. § 1505, filed in federal court with jurisdiction in the Eastern District of Virginia [2][3].
Peter Strzok does not face specific federal criminal charges. In contrast to Comey, the retrieved sources do not contain publicly identified federal criminal charges against Strzok with specific statutory sections or a charging court [4][5][6]. Instead, the available information focuses on civil litigation regarding his firing and various reporting or subpoena coverages, rather than an indictment with specified statutes or jurisdiction [4][5][6]. While grand jury subpoenas involving Strzok were mentioned in the context of a Trump-Russia probe, the provided information does not include details of specific federal criminal charges with a statutory basis and jurisdiction, as identified for Comey [6][4][5].
Sources (6)
- 1Office of Public Affairs | Federal Grand Jury Indicts Former FBI Director James Comey for Threats to Harm President Trump | United States Department of Justicejustice.gov
- 2https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.vaed.583483/gov.uscourts.vaed.583483.1.1.pdfstorage.courtlistener.com
- 3U.S. v. Comeylevin-center.org
- 4Peter Strzok, the FBI agent who sent anti-Trump texts, loses... - Politicopolitico.com
- 5Peter Strzok alleges federal government violated his rights in new court filing | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 6Grand jury subpoenas Brennan, Strzok, Page in Trump-Russia probe | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
9. How might the new DOJ National Fraud Enforcement Division's 2026 priorities trigger new charges against individuals on the list with ties to federal programs?
| Division Mission | To combat fraud targeting federal government programs, federally funded benefits, businesses, nonprofits, and private citizens nationwide [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] |
|---|---|
| Key Operational Feature | National Fraud Detection Center, a prosecutor-led, multi-agency data analytics team for identifying fraud and generating leads [8][4][9][7][10] |
| Enforcement Strategy | Comprehensive and coordinated approach to investigating and prosecuting fraud against taxpayer funds, centralizing existing DOJ fraud resources [1][8][4][9] |
The new DOJ National Fraud Enforcement Division (NFED) intensifies efforts against fraud targeting federal programs. This division is strategically positioned to combat fraud across federal government programs, federally funded benefits, businesses, nonprofits, and private citizens nationwide. Its explicit focus areas include healthcare fraud, tax fraud, benefits fraud, and schemes that misappropriate taxpayer dollars [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. This initiative underscores the Department of Justice's ongoing commitment to individual accountability in white-collar enforcement, signaling a potential rise in charges against individuals associated with federal programs [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][11].
The NFED utilizes data analytics and increased resources for investigations. A core element of its operational strategy is the National Fraud Detection Center, a prosecutor-led, multi-agency data analytics team. This center's primary function is to identify fraud across various government programs and generate actionable investigative leads [8][4][9][7][10]. The division is dedicated to rapidly and substantially boosting its prosecutorial resources, which, combined with enhanced data analytics capabilities, is expected to open new pathways for uncovering and prosecuting misconduct related to federal programs [4][5][9][12][10].
Centralized resources will lead to faster, more systematic fraud enforcement. By consolidating existing DOJ fraud resources under unified leadership, the NFED aims to implement a "comprehensive and coordinated approach" to investigating and prosecuting fraud against taxpayer funds [1][8][4][9]. This consolidation of authority, paired with a directive for aggressive pursuit of taxpayer-funded fraud, is anticipated to result in earlier investigative activity and closer coordination across cases. The overarching goal is to make federal fraud enforcement "faster, more systematic, and harder to anticipate" [8][9].
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JCOM: YES (Apr 28, 2026)
