Who will be arrested before 2027?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect James Comey to be arrested before 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This prediction market has established a clear, sideways trading range since its inception. The price has fluctuated between a low of 4.9% and a high of 11.0%. It opened at its peak of 11.0% and is currently trading at 9.8%, near the top of this range. This price action suggests the market has identified a support level around 5% and a resistance level at 11%. The initial drop from 11.0% to a low near 6.0% in late April 2026, followed by a recovery to the current 9.8%, represents the most significant volatility. However, without any specific news or external events provided in the context, these price movements cannot be attributed to a particular cause and likely reflect internal market dynamics or shifts in trader sentiment.
The total trading volume of 132 contracts across the market's history is notably low, indicating limited liquidity and participation. This low volume suggests that the price can be moved by relatively small trades, which may explain the observed volatility within the established range. The lack of significant volume accompanying the price swings indicates low market conviction behind these movements. Overall, the chart suggests a market with a stable, albeit uncertain, sentiment. Traders are consistently pricing the probability of an arrest before January 2027 between approximately 5% and 11%, implying a persistent belief in a low, but non-zero, chance of the event occurring, without any new information compelling a breakout from this long-held range.
- Ed Martin and Bill Pulte face federal grand jury investigations.
- Most federal felonies have a standard five-year statute of limitations.
- Pam Bondi plans strong prosecutorial focus as potential Attorney General.
- Donald Trump faces substantial state-level criminal indictment exposure.
- A federal target letter often signals a coming indictment.
- The market saw a significant price drop on April 15, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey | 75.0% | 67.3% | The provided background research details active grand jury investigations for other former officials but contains no information or specific citations related to James Comey, providing a neutral basis for assessing his arrest probability against the debiased market anchor. |
| Barack Obama | 11.0% | 4.6% | The provided background research details investigations concerning other former officials but offers no information or citations related to Barack Obama, providing no evidence to shift from the debiased market price. |
| Letitia James | 17.0% | 8.1% | The provided background research details investigations into Ed Martin, Bill Pulte, and John Brennan, offering no specific information or allegations concerning Letitia James to support or contradict the market's assessment of her potential arrest. |
| Hillary Clinton | 13.0% | 5.7% | The provided background research focuses exclusively on Ed Martin, Bill Pulte, and John Brennan, offering no information or citations regarding Hillary Clinton or any potential investigation or arrest concerning her, thereby providing no basis to adjust the debiased probability. |
| John Brennan | 67.0% | 64.8% | John Brennan is the subject of an active federal grand jury investigation with subpoenaed witnesses, providing strong evidence for potential arrest, yet an ongoing investigation does not guarantee an indictment or subsequent arrest. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 April 15, 2026: 11.9pp drop
Price decreased from 13.0% to 1.1%
Outcome: Lee Jun-seok
What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Mahmoud Khalil is arrested before January 1, 2027; this includes voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opened on September 6, 2025, and will close early if the arrest occurs, or by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST if no arrest is made.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Comey | $0.75 | $0.26 | 75% |
| John Brennan | $0.66 | $0.38 | 67% |
| Mahmoud Khalil | $0.44 | $0.63 | 39% |
| James Clapper | $0.31 | $0.76 | 31% |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | $0.28 | $0.78 | 30% |
| Adam Schiff | $0.18 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Letitia James | $0.17 | $0.85 | 17% |
| Hillary Clinton | $0.14 | $0.89 | 13% |
| Loretta Lynch | $0.11 | $0.93 | 12% |
| Susan Rice | $0.10 | $0.93 | 12% |
| Barack Obama | $0.10 | $0.91 | 11% |
| Candace Owens | $0.11 | $0.94 | 11% |
| Gavin Newsom | $0.08 | $0.94 | 10% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | $0.14 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Bill Clinton | $0.10 | $0.92 | 9% |
| John Kerry | $0.10 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Pam Bondi | $0.08 | $0.96 | 8% |
| Tom Homan | $0.07 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Kash Patel | $0.09 | $0.96 | 6% |
| Anthony Fauci | $0.06 | $0.97 | 6% |
| Brandon Johnson | $0.11 | $0.94 | 5% |
| Lisa Cook | $0.06 | $0.97 | 3% |
| Lee Jun-seok | $0.12 | $0.93 | 1% |
| Joe Biden | $0.05 | $0.99 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Traders show strong confidence that James Comey (75%) and John Brennan (67%) will be arrested before 2027, with some speculating that a recent price surge for Comey indicates "insider info" or an impending indictment. While Benjamin Netanyahu is also discussed, opinion is divided, with some betting Yes due to potential "house arrest" scenarios, and others suggesting No unless a formal indictment occurs. The overall market shows high conviction for the arrests of Comey and Brennan.
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score41High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score72Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. Which Former Officials Are Under Federal Grand Jury Investigation?
| Ed Martin & Bill Pulte Status | Subjects of federal grand jury investigations for alleged misconduct and improper leaking of grand jury materials [1] |
|---|---|
| Ed Martin Specific Allegation | Found to have improperly leaked grand jury material in a probe targeting the president's foes [2] |
| John Brennan Status | Subject of active federal grand jury investigation with witnesses subpoenaed to testify [3] |
Ed Martin and Bill Pulte face federal grand jury investigations. Both individuals are currently subjects of active federal grand jury investigations by the Department of Justice, which involve alleged misconduct and improper leaking of grand jury materials [1]. These probes specifically relate to investigations of critics of the former President and the Adam Schiff criminal probe [1]. Martin and Pulte are part of broader Department of Justice and FBI inquiries into top administration officials concerning investigations of the president's adversaries [4]. A Justice Department review found that Ed Martin improperly leaked grand jury material in a probe targeting the president's foes, resulting in his removal from a 'Weaponization Unit' [2]. Additionally, a federal grand jury is actively investigating the handling of the Adam Schiff criminal probe, which was reportedly led by Ed Martin and Bill Pulte [5].
John Brennan is also under active federal grand jury investigation. He is the subject of an active grand jury investigation by the Department of Justice [3]. Witnesses have been subpoenaed to testify before a federal grand jury in Washington D.C. in connection with this ongoing investigation involving Brennan [3].
Sources (5)
- 1Grand jury investigating potential misconduct in probes of Trump criticsms.now
- 2Justice Department review found Trump ally Ed Martin improperly leaked grand jury material in probe of president’s foes | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 3Witnesses subpoenaed to testify before DC grand jury in John Brennan investigation, AP sources say - The Washington Postwashingtonpost.com
- 4DOJ, FBI probing top Trump administration officials over investigations of president's adversaries: Sourcesabcnews.go.com
- 5A federal grand jury is investigating the handling of the Adam Schiff criminal probenbcnews.com
7. When Do Federal Statutes of Limitations Expire for Key Public Figures?
| Standard Federal Felony Statute of Limitations | Five years [1] |
|---|---|
| Expiration for Clinton, Comey, Brennan (most alleged offenses) | Before January 1, 2027 [2] |
| Expiration for Fauci (2022 alleged offenses) | Extends into 2027 [2] |
Most federal felonies, including specific statutes, carry a five-year limitation. The standard federal statute of limitations for felonies, encompassing charges such as gathering, transmitting, or losing defense information (18 U.S.C. § 793) and making false statements (18 U.S.C. § 1001), is five years from the date the alleged offense was committed [1]. For Hillary Clinton, publicly alleged offenses primarily relate to her tenure as Secretary of State (2009-2013) and the subsequent FBI investigation, which concluded in July 2016 [3]. The five-year statute of limitations for these allegations would have therefore expired by July 2021 at the latest. Similarly, for James Comey, allegations following his 2017 dismissal would have reached their expiration by late 2022 [4]. John Brennan's alleged conduct during his term as CIA Director (2013-2017) would have seen the statute of limitations expire by January 2022. Consequently, for Clinton, Comey, and Brennan, the statutes of limitations for the most serious publicly alleged offenses under these federal laws had all expired prior to January 1, 2027.
Anthony Fauci's alleged offenses from 2022 may extend past January 2027. In contrast, for Anthony Fauci, publicly alleged offenses are primarily connected to his involvement in the COVID-19 pandemic response, with claims spanning 2020, 2021, and 2022. The five-year statute of limitations for alleged offenses in 2020 would expire in 2025. Similarly, alleged offenses from 2021 would reach their five-year limit in 2026. Both of these expiration dates occur before January 1, 2027. However, any alleged offenses occurring in 2022 would have their five-year statute of limitations extend into 2027, meaning they would not expire prior to January 1, 2027.
Sources (4)
- 1Federal Crimes Statute of Limitations [2026 Updated]jamespaynelaw.com
- 2https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/USCODE-2023-title18/pdf/USCODE-2023-title18-partI-chap37-sec793.pdfgovinfo.gov
- 3Statement by FBI Director James B. Comey on the Investigation of Secretary Hillary Clinton’s Use of a Personal E-Mail Systemfbi.gov
- 4Report of Investigation of Former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director James Comey’s Disclosure of Sensitive Investigative Information and Handling of Certain Memorandaoig.justice.gov
8. What Are Pam Bondi's Prosecutorial Intentions as Potential Attorney General?
| Prosecutorial Focus | Prosecute "bad" prosecutors who indicted Trump [1] |
|---|---|
| Investigative Scope | Investigate "Trump foes" if appointed Attorney General [2] |
| Political Affiliation | Identified as a "Project 2025 lawyer" [3] |
Pam Bondi has articulated a strong prosecutorial focus on specific individuals. As a potential appointee for Attorney General in a prospective second Trump administration, Bondi has explicitly vowed to prosecute "bad" prosecutors who indicted former President Trump [1]. Nominated by President-elect Donald J. Trump for Attorney General [4] and identified as a "Project 2025 lawyer" by some sources [3], she would not rule out probes into "Trump foes" if confirmed [2]. This indicates a specific focus on individuals perceived as political opponents or those involved in legal actions against the former president [5].
Other potential appointees lack documented specific prosecutorial statements. While individuals such as Todd Blanche [6] and Harmeet Dhillon [7] are associated with Project 2025 or mentioned as potential candidates, the research does not detail similar specific public statements from them regarding prosecutorial intentions. The available information for these individuals primarily covers general legal or political involvement [6], [8]. Additionally, no individuals from a potential second Biden term's shortlist were referenced in the provided research.
Sources (8)
- 1AG pick Pam Bondi's past vow: Prosecute the 'bad' prosecutors who indicted Trumpnbcnews.com
- 2Pam Bondi doesn't rule out probes of Trump foes as attorney general | AP Newsuat.apnews.com
- 3Trump Installs Project 2025 Lawyer as Attorney General - Democratsdemocrats.org
- 4Statement by President-elect Donald J. Trump Announcing the Nomination of Pam Bondi as Attorney General of the United States | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
- 5What Pam Bondi, Trump's new AG pick, has said about investigating DOJ prosecutors - ABC Newsabcnews.go.com
- 6Todd Blancheproject2025admin.com
- 7Inside the race to be Trump’s next attorney general as MAGA stars jockey for top job in politically charged DOJ | The Independentindependent.co.uk
- 8"Demonic," "Godless," "Un-American:" Harmeet Dhillon's Own Misconduct Will Be an Issue in Don Lemon Case - emptywheelemptywheel.net
9. Which Public Figures Face State-Level Indictment Exposure?
| Donald Trump Legal Status | Convicted on 34 felony counts (May 30, 2024) [1] |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump Prosecution Type | State-level criminal (New York) [2] |
| Chad Bianco Legal Action | State lawsuit by CA Attorney General (challenging authority) [3] |
Donald Trump faces the highest state-level criminal indictment exposure. He has already been indicted and convicted in a New York state criminal prosecution. A New York grand jury indicted Trump in March 2023 on charges related to falsifying business records concerning "hush money" payments [1]. His trial commenced in April 2024, culminating in his conviction on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records on May 30, 2024 [1]. This ongoing prosecution, known as People v Donald J. Trump, represents a direct state-level criminal proceeding [2].
California's Attorney General initiated an aggressive action against Sheriff Bianco. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is currently subject to a significant state-level action by the California Attorney General's Office. The Attorney General filed a lawsuit against Bianco, alleging he overstepped his authority by launching an investigation into the 2025 general election and seizing ballots [3]. The California Supreme Court has since ordered Bianco to pause his probe and preserve the seized ballots [4]. While this is a fast-tracked action by a state-level prosecutor [3], publicly reported information describes it as a lawsuit challenging his authority rather than a criminal probe specifically targeting Bianco for personal indictment [5].
Sources (5)
- 1Prosecution of Donald Trump in New Yorken.wikipedia.org
- 2People v Donald J. Trump (Criminal) | NYCOURTS.GOVww2.nycourts.gov
- 3Attorney general’s lawsuit against California sheriff and candidate for governor put on fast track – East Bay Timeseastbaytimes.com
- 4CA Supreme Court orders Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a gubernatorial candidate, to pause probe, preserve seized ballots - ABC7 Los Angelesig.abcnews.com
- 5What to know about Chad Bianco, the AG and seized 2025 ballotsdesertsun.com
10. What is the Timeline from Federal Target Letter to Indictment?
| Timeline after target letter | Highly variable, weeks to over a year [1], [2] |
|---|---|
| Average time to indictment | Often 1-3 months [1], [2] |
| Evidence for specific individuals | No direct evidence in provided sources [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8] |
A target letter signifies a critical phase in a federal investigation. The receipt of a federal target letter by a high-profile individual's legal team marks a critical juncture in a federal investigation [1], [9]. The timeframe between receiving such a letter and a subsequent indictment or a negotiated resolution is highly variable, spanning from a few weeks to several months, and potentially exceeding a year in particularly complex cases [1], [2]. Upon receiving this letter, which designates an individual as a subject of a grand jury investigation, defense counsel typically initiates discussions with the prosecution to ascertain the allegations, present mitigating evidence, or explore resolutions like plea agreements, with the goal of preventing an indictment [1], [9].
Indictment follows grand jury evaluation, often leading to self-surrender. Should an indictment proceed, a grand jury reviews the evidence presented by the prosecution [1]. The typical duration from the issuance of a target letter to an indictment is usually 1 to 3 months, although this timeline can fluctuate considerably based on the complexity of the case, the volume of evidence, and the extent of pre-indictment negotiations [1], [2]. After an indictment, a negotiated self-surrender is a common procedural step, especially for high-profile individuals. This arrangement facilitates a discreet arrest process rather than a public one, wherein the individual agrees through their attorney to appear for processing and release on pre-arranged bail terms [2].
Evidence of target letters for specific individuals is currently unavailable. Regarding information about federal target letters issued to particular high-profile individuals from the prediction market context, existing web research does not contain specific confirmation of their issuance to anyone on the provided list [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8]. While Eric Swalwell was associated with allegations concerning mortgage fraud in November 2025 and April 2026, the available sources do not explicitly state that he formally received a federal target letter [7], [8].
Sources (9)
- 1How Long After a Target Letter Will I Be Indicted? - Spodek Law Group [2025]nyccriminalattorneys.com
- 2How Long After a Target Letter Will I Be Indicted? - Federal Criminal Lawyersfederallawyers.com
- 3Who will be arrested before 2027? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 4Who will be arrested 2026? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5Arrested Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 6Will Swalwell Win California Governor? Odds Fall 8pp Amid FBI File Fight | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
- 7Inside the sudden downfall of Eric Swalwell | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 8Eric Swalwell referred by Bill Pulte to the Justice Department over mortgage fraud allegations | CNN Politicsus.cnn.com
- 9Federal Target Letter: What It Means & What To Do Now - Seddiq Law Marylandseddiqlaw.com
