Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect a 25 bps increase, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • No change in rates appears slightly favored, following July's FOMC majority vote.
  • A 25 bps hike remains highly probable, backed by three dissenting members' inflation concerns.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
25 bps decrease 1.6% 0.9% The July 2026 FOMC statement projected a single 25 basis point rate cut for 2026.
No change 48.0% 46.4% The majority of the FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate at the July 2026 meeting.
25 bps increase 49.0% 50.5% Three FOMC members dissented at the July 2026 meeting, advocating for a 25-basis-point increase.
50+ bps decrease 0.9% 0.6% This outcome would likely occur under severe economic deterioration and swift disinflation.
50+ bps increase 1.4% 1.7% A substantial acceleration in inflation indicators from upcoming reports could compel a larger hike.

Current Context

Conflicting reports exist regarding the Federal Open Market Committee's September 2026 meeting schedule. Some sources indicate an FOMC meeting on September 15–16, 2026, with the interest rate decision announced on September 16 at 2:00 PM ET [^][^][^]. However, the Federal Reserve's official calendar, as of August 4, 2026, does not list an FOMC meeting or press release for September 2026 [^][^].
The July FOMC meeting revealed internal divisions on the rate path. At the July 28–29, 2026, meeting, the Committee voted 9–3 to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% [^][^]. Three members dissented, preferring a 25-basis-point hike, which has kept the possibility of a September rate increase in active debate [^][^]. As of early August 2026, financial and prediction markets remain divided on a September policy move, with probabilities for a rate hike fluctuating significantly based on incoming economic data, including the July employment report due August 7 [^][^]. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has adopted a communication strategy focusing on broader economic conditions rather than explicit forward guidance, introducing heightened uncertainty regarding the Committee's reaction function and future policy path [^][^][^].
Federal Reserve officials affirm current policy stance supports disinflation. Officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, have recently emphasized that the current monetary policy stance, with the federal funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent as of mid-June 2026, is well-positioned to support a disinflationary path toward the 2 percent goal [^][^][^]. Officials remain focused on achieving price stability while monitoring risks such as tariffs, energy shocks, and global supply disruptions [^][^][^].

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This market is inactive and illiquid. The contract has traded in a narrow range between 1.1% and 4.6% on zero total volume. The price drifted from an open of 2.6% on July 21 up to 3.9% before collapsing to its current level of 1.5% on August 4. These price movements do not reflect traded conviction but rather the adjustments of an automated market maker in the absence of any participant activity.
The sharp decline on August 4 appears to be a direct reaction to schedule uncertainty for the underlying event. While some financial calendars list a September 15-16 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve's own calendar as of August 4, 2026, does not. The price drop coincides with this information, suggesting the market is pricing in the high probability that no September meeting will occur, making a rate decision impossible.
Market sentiment implies a near-zero probability of a 50 bps rate cut in September 2026. This view is not based on economic forecasting but on the fundamental question of whether a meeting will even be held. The complete lack of volume means traditional technical levels of support and resistance are not meaningful. The chart simply reflects an un-traded contract repricing based on new logistical information.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 August 04, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 42.5% to 50.5%

Outcome: No change

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "No change" outcome was likely the interview with New York Fed President John Williams, published on August 3, 2026 [^]. Williams indicated that monetary policy was "currently well-positioned to support the disinflationary path" [^]. This statement, preceding the market movement on August 4, 2026, appeared to lead a shift in market sentiment towards maintaining the current federal funds rate, especially as investors were previously pricing in a high probability (around 77%) of a rate hike in September [^][^]. Social media was irrelevant as a primary or contributing factor based on the provided information.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Polymarket market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. The market will resolve to one of the displayed options (e.g., "No change," "25 bps increase") corresponding to the actual basis point change.

The relevant FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, and the market's end date is September 16, 2026. Resolution may occur as soon as the FOMC’s official statement is issued.

Special conditions include rounding up any unlisted basis point changes to the nearest 25 (e.g., 12.5 bps becomes 25 bps). If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market will resolve to "No change," with official resolution sources being federalreserve.gov.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
25 bps increase $0.49 $0.52 49%
No change $0.49 $0.52 48%
25 bps decrease $0.02 $0.98 2%
50+ bps increase $0.01 $0.99 1%
50+ bps decrease $0.01 $0.99 1%

Market Discussion

Traders are closely divided on the Federal Reserve's September decision, with a near-even split between no change (51%) and a 25 basis point rate increase (48%). Arguments for a hike stem from persistent U.S. inflation above the 2% target, hawkish dissents at the July FOMC meeting, and geopolitical tensions. Conversely, those expecting no change point to the Fed's recent rate holds and a lack of strong forward guidance, with the market's consensus heavily dependent on incoming July and August inflation and labor-market data.

5. Trader Dashboard

A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.

25 bps decreasePrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
50+ bps decreaseTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
No changeTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
25 bps increaseTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor
50+ bps increaseTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant movehigh confidence
  • Factor

trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 4, 2026

6. What specific thresholds in the upcoming July and August 2026 jobs and inflation reports would likely compel the FOMC to alter the federal funds rate in September?

Implied Probability for 25bps Hike (Sept 2026)53-55% (as of Aug 4, 2026) [^][^][^]
Hawkish Shift Triggers (September Hike)NFP > 200K, Core CPI MoM >= +0.3%, or Core PCE > 2.5% [^]
Dovish Shift Triggers (September Stability/Cut)NFP 100K-200K, Unemployment 4.1-4.2%, Core CPI MoM +0.2% [^]
Upcoming economic reports will dictate the FOMC's September rate decision. The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) September 2026 decision on the federal funds rate is heavily contingent on forthcoming jobs and inflation reports. A hawkish shift, likely resulting in a 25 basis point rate hike, would be triggered if Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) surpass 200,000, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month reaches +0.3% or higher, or core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) remains above 2.5% [^]. Conversely, conditions that would support rate stability or even a reduction include NFP figures between 100,000 and 200,000, an unemployment rate within the 4.1-4.2% range, and a Core CPI month-over-month increase of +0.2% [^].
Critical economic data releases will precede the September FOMC meeting. Key data influencing this decision include the July jobs report, scheduled for release on August 7, 2026, the July CPI report, expected on August 13, 2026, and the July PCE data, which will become available in late August 2026 [^][^]. As of August 4, 2026, prediction markets indicate a closely contested outcome for the September 16, 2026 meeting, with implied probabilities for a 25 basis point rate hike fluctuating between 53% and 55% [^][^][^]. Adding to the potential for market volatility, the September 16, 2026, meeting will also feature the release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which could significantly influence expectations for future rate adjustments [^][^].

7. How do the recent public statements of the three dissenting FOMC members from July 2026 compare with those of Chair Kevin Warsh and the concurring majority?

FOMC Vote to Maintain Rates9-3 (July 29, 2026 meeting) [^][^][^][^]
Federal Funds Rate Maintained3.50%-3.75% (July 29, 2026 meeting) [^][^][^][^]
Dissenters' Preference25-basis-point rate increase [^][^][^][^][^]
The FOMC maintained interest rates despite three dissenting votes. At its July 29, 2026 meeting, the federal funds rate was held steady at 3.50%-3.75% following a 9-3 vote [^][^][^][^]. Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan dissented, advocating for a 25-basis-point increase [^][^][^][^]. Hammack cited persistent, high inflation and insufficient policy restrictiveness as key concerns [^][^][^][^][^]. In contrast, the majority's decision to pause was influenced by factors such as weak consumer confidence, downward revisions in recent jobs reports, and benign inflation data [^][^].
Chair Warsh acknowledged dissent but highlighted majority's rate hold. Chair Kevin Warsh characterized the dissenting votes as a healthy "family fight," emphasizing the large majority's support for the decision to hold rates steady [^][^]. Unlike the dissenters, Warsh has generally avoided providing specific forward guidance on his personal interest rate outlook [^][^]. Nevertheless, the Committee adopted a more hawkish stance under Warsh's leadership in 2026, indicated by the June 2026 dot plot, which shifted towards a hike-leaning path for the federal funds rate by year-end [^][^].

8. What evidence from recent FOMC minutes and press conferences clarifies how Chair Kevin Warsh's move away from explicit forward guidance is affecting market expectations for September 2026?

Sep 2026 Rate Hike Probability60% to 70% (following July FOMC meeting) [^][^]
2026 Federal Funds Rate Midpoint3.8% (June 2026 FOMC forecast) [^]
Forward Guidance PolicyExplicitly omitted in June 2026 FOMC statement [^]
Chair Kevin Warsh has significantly altered the Fed's communication strategy. He has initiated a significant shift away from explicit forward guidance, which he deems unsuitable for current economic conditions [^][^][^]. Under Warsh, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adopted a more data-dependent, "unfiltered" approach that deliberately avoids providing explicit signals about future rate actions [^][^][^]. This change was evident in the June 2026 FOMC announcement, where the policy statement notably omitted forward guidance [^].
This strategic shift has increased market uncertainty and volatility. The abandonment of explicit forward guidance has led to a "risk premium" within the Treasury bond market, as investors struggle to anticipate the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory [^][^][^]. Chair Warsh asserts that "surprises are not the objective" but maintains that the Fed will act solely based on incoming data to achieve its 2% inflation target, unconstrained by previous practices or market demands for rolling forecasts [^][^]. Consequently, market expectations for a September 2026 rate hike have fluctuated, with estimates ranging between 60% and 70% following the July FOMC meeting [^][^]. Furthermore, the median FOMC forecast for the federal funds rate target range midpoint for 2026 was raised to 3.8% as of June 2026, indicating a more hawkish stance [^].

9. What is the official status and scheduled date of the September 2026 FOMC meeting, according to the Federal Reserve Board's most recent publications and calendars?

Meeting DatesSeptember 15–16, 2026 [^][^][^]
Meeting TypeSummary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting [^][^][^]
Rate Decision ReleaseSeptember 16, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. ET [^][^][^]
The September 2026 FOMC meeting is officially scheduled and designated as an SEP. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has officially scheduled its September 2026 meeting for September 15–16, 2026 [^][^][^]. This specific gathering is designated as a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) meeting [^][^][^].
The September 2026 meeting will feature key economic updates and decisions. During this SEP meeting, the committee is slated to release updated quarterly economic forecasts and the "dot plot" detailing individual member rate expectations [^][^][^]. The interest rate decision and its accompanying policy statement are scheduled for release at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, September 16, 2026. Following this, the Fed Chair's press conference will commence at 2:30 p.m. ET on the same day [^][^][^].
The FOMC conducts regular meetings with specific purposes annually. The Federal Open Market Committee holds eight regularly scheduled meetings each year to determine the near-term direction of U.S. monetary policy [^][^]. Meetings held in September, among others, commonly include the release of economic projections and a subsequent press conference [^][^].

10. Which potential global economic shocks, such as the energy price and supply chain risks cited by John Williams, pose the most significant threat to the Fed's current policy stance before the September 2026 meeting?

Most significant threat to Fed policyIran-Middle East conflict [^][^][^]
Federal funds rate (June 2026)3.5 to 3.75 percent [^][^][^]
Primary economic risk in 2026 (John Williams)Middle East conflict [^][^][^][^][^]
Persistent global conflict presents the most significant threat to the Fed. The Iran-Middle East conflict, as a source of persistent global economic shocks, represents a major challenge to the Federal Reserve's policy stance before the September 2026 meeting [^][^][^]. These shocks, specifically energy price volatility and related supply chain disruptions, contribute to inflationary expectations and complicate the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) path to its 2% inflation target [^][^][^]. John Williams identified the Middle East conflict as a primary source of economic risk in 2026, noting that it creates a supply shock that risks both increasing inflation through higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions, and simultaneously dampening economic activity [^][^][^][^][^]. As of June 2026, the FOMC has maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, with officials citing elevated inflation, lingering effects of tariffs, and global supply disruptions from the Middle East as key factors in the current economic outlook [^][^][^].
Other risks include tariffs and uncertain AI investment impacts. Beyond the Middle East conflict, potential economic risks highlighted by Fed officials include the persistent inflationary impact of tariffs and uncertainty regarding the effects of the AI investment boom on prices [^][^][^]. Other critical factors include a race between AI-driven technology investment demand and supply capacity, causing sharp cost increases in semiconductors and power infrastructure [^][^]. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding the full impact of these investments on long-term productivity versus near-term inflation [^][^].

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its next meeting on September 15-16, 2026, with the interest rate decision to be announced on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET [^] [^] [^] . This meeting includes the release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the 'dot plot,' making it a highly anticipated event for assessing the Federal Reserve's path for inflation, growth, and interest rates [^]. As of August 4, 2026, prediction markets show market participants are split, with a slight lean towards a 25-basis-point rate hike (approximately 55-56% probability) compared to a hold (approximately 41-43% probability), with very low expectations for a rate cut [^][^][^][^][^]. The CME FedWatch Tool provides market-implied probabilities for FOMC rate decisions using 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices [^][^][^].
Key catalysts for the September decision include upcoming CPI, PCE, and monthly employment reports [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] . (Live) | MacroOdds" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. Traders continuously monitor these reports, along with energy price volatility and ongoing geopolitical tensions, to adjust their rate expectations [^][^][^][^][^]. Federal Reserve officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, remain focused on achieving the 2% inflation goal, with policy currently positioned to support a disinflationary path [^][^]. Risks from global supply disruptions and uncertainty regarding the impact of AI investment are acknowledged [^][^].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: September 16, 2026

12. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its next meeting on September 15-16, 2026, with the interest rate decision to be announced on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: This meeting includes the release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the 'dot plot,' making it a highly anticipated event for assessing the Federal Reserve's path for inflation, growth, and interest rates [^] .
  • Trigger: As of August 4, 2026, prediction markets show market participants are split, with a slight lean towards a 25-basis-point rate hike (approximately 55-56% probability) compared to a hold (approximately 41-43% probability), with very low expectations for a rate cut [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
  • Trigger: The CME FedWatch Tool provides market-implied probabilities for FOMC rate decisions using 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices [^] [^] [^] .

14. Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.