Short Answer

A 25 basis point increase in the Federal Reserve's September 2026 decision is a toss-up, with the market pricing this outcome at 53.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market has traded between 0.4% and 1.8% YES probability, with a current reading of 0.4%. Total volume: 0 contracts.
  • Since last update (~36d): The "25 bps increase" outcome surged, market-led by +6.0pp; edge compressed significantly.
  • "No change" probability plummeted, market-led by -6.0pp; edge compressed for this outcome.
  • The overall edge between model and market compressed to 0.0 (+0.5pp), boosting confidence by +2.0pp.
  • A 25 bps increase leads probability mass, fueled by the strong August jobs report.
  • Holding rates steady remains likely, given closely split market expectations.
  • The August 2026 CPI release on September 11, 2026, is a key catalyst.

Current Context

While certain reports indicated an FOMC meeting and interest rate decision on September 15–16, 2026, with an announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET on September 16, and a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m. ET [1][2][3][4][5], the official FOMC calendar does not currently list a rate-setting meeting for September 2026. Similarly, an official FOMC press release for September 10, 2026, is not listed on the committee's public schedule [6][7][8]. Reports from September 9, 2026, showed financial markets and analysts divided on the prospect of a September rate decision [9][10][11][12][13][14]. Federal funds futures, reflecting market expectations for a September rate move, priced in approximately a 60% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. This was driven by a stronger-than-expected August jobs report, which added 162,000 jobs, and hawkish rhetoric from some Fed officials [9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due September 11, 2026, was viewed as a critical factor for any potential FOMC rate adjustment [10][13][15][16]. The federal funds target range stood at 3.50% to 3.75% as of August 17, 2026 [8].
Internal Fed debate persists regarding inflation and economic growth. Some officials, like Governor Christopher Waller, favor holding rates steady if inflation data cools [10][11][12][15]. Others are concerned about persistent inflation exceeding the 2% target, citing recent geopolitical shocks and resilient labor market data [10][11][12][15]. The FOMC's longer-run Summary of Economic Projections for the federal funds rate midpoint was 3.25% as of June 17, 2026 [17].
Sources (17)
  1. 1Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: September 2026federalreserve.gov
  2. 2The Fed - Meeting calendars and informationfederalreserve.gov
  3. 3FOMC Meeting Schedule September 2026 - Dates & Timefedratecalc.com
  4. 4FOMC Rate Decision September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  5. 5Next FOMC Meeting: September 15–16, 2026 Countdown | FedRateCalcfedratecalc.com
  6. 6Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  7. 7Release Calendar | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
  8. 8FOMC Press Release, Release Date: 2026-08-17 | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
  9. 9UBS forecasts two US Fed rate hikes in 2026 after strong jobs report | Reutersreuters.com
  10. 10Markets View September Rate Hike As More Likely Than Notforbes.com
  11. 11Hike Or Hold? Debating The Coming Fed Decision - RIArealinvestmentadvice.com
  12. 12Waller Urges Patience, but Bond Market Keeps Rate Hike in Play - Connect Moneyconnectmoney.com
  13. 13Daily: Strong US jobs data likely to tip the balance for the Fed | UBS Globalubs.com
  14. 14PNC Economics Research - Payrolls - 4 September 2026pnc.com
  15. 15162,000 Jobs, a Smaller Labor Force, and a Fed That Is Arguing About Hikes | Gryphon Financial Partnersgryphonfp.com
  16. 16The +162K Jobs Report Is Weaker Than It Looksarkominaresearch.substack.com
  17. 17Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint (FEDTARCTMLR) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 25 bps increase

📈 September 04, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 42.5% to 50.5%

What happened: The primary driver for the 8.0 percentage point spike in the "25 bps increase" outcome on September 4, 2026, was news indicating that "strong NFP revives Fed hike bets" [1]. This economic data development likely increased market expectations for a rate hike, causing the upward movement in prediction market probabilities [1]. While Fed Governor Christopher Waller also indicated support for maintaining rates on the same day if inflation improved, which would typically reduce hike probabilities [2], the strong NFP report appears to have been the more influential factor for the observed spike. There is no evidence of social media activity as a primary driver in the provided information.

Outcome: No change

📈 September 03, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 44.5% to 57.5%

What happened: The primary driver for the 13.0 percentage point spike in the "No change" outcome on September 3, 2026, was reports of "dovish Fed comments" [3]. These comments, which coincided with the market movement and led to a rally in Euro FX futures, indicated a less hawkish stance, thereby increasing the perceived likelihood of rates remaining stable [3]. While the presence of an official FOMC rate decision in September 2026 is disputed by various sources [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12], market participants appear to have reacted to these perceived shifts in Fed sentiment. Social media activity was irrelevant to this specific price movement, as no direct posts or viral narratives related to Fed policy were identified on that date.

📉 August 28, 2026: 20.0pp drop

Price decreased from 68.5% to 48.5%

What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver, particularly social media activity, for the 20.0 percentage point drop in the "No change" outcome on August 28, 2026. Key events that typically influence Fed expectations, such as the stronger-than-expected August 2026 jobs report and the upcoming August 2026 CPI release, were reported or scheduled for dates after August 28, 2026 [13]. Therefore, these events cannot be attributed as the cause of this specific market movement. Social media activity was not found to be a primary driver or contributing accelerant for this particular date.
Sources (13)
  1. 1United States Dollar Index rises as strong NFP revives Fed hike bets | Bitget Newsbitget.com
  2. 2Will the FED hike rates in Sept.? Gate bets 60% on keeping rates unchanged and 41% on a hike—what signal is Waller sending? | Gate Newsgate.com
  3. 3Euro FX futures rally to 1.1640 following dovish Fed comments. - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  4. 4FOMC Meeting Schedule September 2026 - Dates & Timefedratecalc.com
  5. 5The Fed - Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reservefederalreserve.gov
  6. 6FOMC Rate Decision September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  7. 7Next FOMC Meeting: September 15–16, 2026 Countdown | FedRateCalcfedratecalc.com
  8. 8Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  9. 9Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  10. 10Economic Release Calendar | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  11. 11Release Calendar | ALFRED | St. Louis Fedalfred.stlouisfed.org
  12. 12Economic Release Calendar - FOMC Press Release | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  13. 13UBS forecasts two US Fed rate hikes in 2026 after strong jobs report | Reutersreuters.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to one of the defined basis point change options (e.g., '25 bps increase', 'No change') based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate after the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. The relevant FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, and the market's end date is September 16, 2026. Special conditions include rounding changes not explicitly listed up to the nearest 25 basis points, and if no official statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to 'No change'.

Market Discussion

Traders are primarily divided on whether the Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point interest rate increase or keep rates unchanged at its September 2026 meeting, with a slight lean towards a hike (54%). Arguments for an increase include a stronger-than-expected August jobs report, persistent inflation (PCE near 3.7%), and hawkish signals from Fed officials. The market remains tightly priced, with the final decision heavily dependent on upcoming data like the August CPI report and any pre-meeting communications.

5. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Sep 14, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 58 Caution

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

Integrity risk· Information exposure

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score54Caution
Trade quality20% of score72Good
Trust score58Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 2 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
30High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
72Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

5 contracts · worst first

No change64
Tradeable · high confidence

Quoted spread 8.1% of price with size at both touches

25 bps decrease65
Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

50+ bps decrease65
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

50+ bps increase84
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 11.1% of price over 3 traded bars

24h traded notional $33,309 · 24h
25 bps increase91
Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.1% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
74Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

5 contracts · worst first

25 bps increase74
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

No change—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

50+ bps increase—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

25 bps decrease—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

50+ bps decrease—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

5 contracts · worst first

25 bps increase95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
No change95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
50+ bps increase95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
25 bps decrease95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
50+ bps decrease95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
72Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 72 (notional-weighted across 5 scored legs)

25 bps increase86Market scoreLiquidity91Move quality74Rule clarity95
Why 86
Liquidity
91 · Deep · high confidence

Quoted spread 1.1% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
74 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
No change64Market scoreLiquidity64Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 64
Liquidity
64 · Tradeable · high confidence

Quoted spread 8.1% of price with size at both touches

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
50+ bps increase84Market scoreLiquidity84Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 84
Liquidity
84 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 11.1% of price over 3 traded bars

24h traded notional $33,309 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
25 bps decrease65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Scored from 24h activity alone — realized cost unmeasurable (capped at 65)

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
50+ bps decrease65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality–Rule clarity95
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 14, 2026

6. What specific inflation reading in the August CPI report would serve as the tipping point for the FOMC to enact a rate hike in September 2026?

August CPI Year-over-Year2.9% [1]
August Core CPI Year-over-Year3.1% [1]
Pre-report Hot CPI Thresholdexceeding 3.3% [2][3]
Before the August CPI report, markets anticipated a specific inflation tipping point. Released on September 11, 2026, the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was widely seen as a pivotal factor for the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate decision at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting [2][4][3][5][6]. Market consensus prior to the report suggested that an August CPI reading exceeding 3.3% year-over-year would likely prompt a 25-basis-point rate hike [2][3]. Adding to these expectations, Cleveland Fed Nowcasts had projected August headline inflation to rise by 0.4% month-over-month [2][4][5][6].
Actual August CPI figures lessened pressure for an immediate rate hike. The August 2026 CPI report, published on September 11, 2026, indicated a 0.4% monthly increase and a 2.9% year-over-year rise in headline inflation [1]. Core CPI also increased by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [1]. These results were interpreted by market observers as giving the Federal Reserve justification to consider a rate cut, rather than implementing an increase.
Market sentiment already favored rate cuts before the CPI release. As of September 9, 2026, market expectations already pointed towards potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the September 2026 meeting, with no strong indication of an impending hike [1][7]. Consequently, the CME FedWatch Tool did not identify a specific inflation "tipping point" in expert literature that would have triggered a September 2026 rate hike, which aligned with the prevailing sentiment that favored cuts [8][9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1US: CPIcmegroup.com
  2. 2Markets View September Rate Hike As More Likely Than Notforbes.com
  3. 3Kalshi Sets August CPI Odds at 66% Before Sept 11 | Lines.comlines.com
  4. 4Fed one hot CPI print away from September rate hike - Seeking Alphaseekingalpha.com
  5. 5Waller: 3.05% Core Inflation Decides Sept Fed Hike | GetFinanceBriefgetfinancebrief.com
  6. 6Payrolls surprise flips September hike odds back toward 60%; Trump pressures cuts into the quiet period - Fed Watch - sembrsembr.live
  7. 7Could Fed Adjust Rates Ahead of Midterm Elections? Here's a...cmegroup.com
  8. 8FedWatch - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  9. 9CME FedWatch Tool User Guidecmegroup.com
  10. 10FedWatch API - CME Groupcmegroup.com

7. What specific metrics from the August jobs report and recent statements from Fed officials form the primary evidence for the market's expectation of a September 2026 rate hike?

August 2026 Jobs Added162,000 [1][2][3][4]
Market Expectation for Jobs Added53,000–56,000 [1][2][3][4]
Market Pricing for Sept 2026 Hike55%–60% [5][6][4]
Strong August jobs report fuels September 2026 rate hike expectations. The August 2026 jobs report showed the U.S. economy adding 162,000 jobs, substantially exceeding market predictions of 53,000–56,000 [1][2][3][4]. This significant increase in job growth is identified as the primary reason for heightened market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September 2026 [1][2][3][4]. Consequently, market pricing for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15–16, 2026 meeting has risen to approximately 55%–60%, marking a shift from a previous outlook that favored maintaining current rates [5][6][4].
Federal Reserve officials' statements further support rate hike possibilities. Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials also contribute to these expectations. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has consistently expressed a hawkish view, noting that disinflationary progress has not been sufficient [7][1][8]. Other officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, have indicated that the upcoming August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release on September 11, will be a key factor in their decision to either support a rate hike or maintain current rates [7][1][9][10][11].
One source suggests no evidence for September 2026 rate hike. However, it is important to acknowledge that as of September 2026, one source indicates an absence of evidence supporting an expectation of a September 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike [12]. This perspective draws on historical and contextual data from 2024, a period when the Federal Reserve was reportedly focused on potential rate cuts due to cooling inflation and risks to employment [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms - CNBCcnbc.com
  2. 2Strong job gains signal Fed hike as Trump levels new rate-cut demandreuters.com
  3. 3US adds 162,000 jobs in August, raising Fed rate hike expectationsaljazeera.com
  4. 4One jobs print flipped September to a hike, and the oil market stopped pricing reliefalphadrift.app
  5. 5FOMC September 2026 Odds for a Rate Hike Surpass 50%finance.yahoo.com
  6. 6Fed decision in September? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7Warsh Sounds Hawkish, but Will There Be a September Rate Hike?morningstar.com
  8. 8Jobs report August 2026: - CNBCcnbc.com
  9. 9Not so fast on rate hikes, some Fed officials say - Axiosaxios.com
  10. 10Fed governor Waller muddies outlook on possible rate hike later this...pbs.org
  11. 11Rate Rise in Play as Fed Officials Await Inflation Datanytimes.com
  12. 12Continuing unemployment insurance claims up 35% from a 54-year low in June 2022; FED focuses on job market ahead of Sept. 18 interest rate decision - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

8. How do the economic arguments supporting a 25-basis-point rate hike compare with the case for holding rates steady at the September 2026 meeting?

25-basis-point rate hike probability45%-56% [1][2][3][4]
Hold rates steady probability44%-55% [1][2][3][4]
Higher unemployment probabilityHighest level since April 2020 (as of September 2026) [5]
Market expectations for the September 2026 rate decision remain closely split, indicating significant uncertainty regarding the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) next move. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike ranges from 45% to 56%, while the likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady is estimated between 44% and 55% [1][2][3][4]. Economic arguments supporting a rate increase include inflation persistently remaining above the Fed's 2% target and hawkish rhetoric from Chair Kevin Warsh [6][3]. Additionally, members Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented at the July meeting, advocating for a rate hike [7]. Policymakers are concerned that current monetary policy may not be sufficiently restrictive, suggesting that delaying action could necessitate more substantial adjustments in the future [8]. Businesses also reported strong demand influencing pricing decisions, alongside rising costs for energy, transportation, and materials as of August 2026 [9].
Conversely, recent economic data and other factors bolster the case for holding rates steady at the September 2026 meeting. This position is supported by observed cooling in labor market and inflation data, the potential for policy lags, and political pressure from the Trump administration in anticipation of the November midterm elections [6][3][4][10]. Some officials believe that maintaining current rates is a reasonable approach given the need to balance inflation risks with increasing uncertainty in the labor market [8]. As of September 2026, labor market expectations have deteriorated, with the mean probability of higher unemployment reaching its highest point since April 2020, while medium-term inflation expectations have slightly declined [5].
Sources (10)
  1. 1FOMC September 2026 Odds for a Rate Hike Surpass 50%finance.yahoo.com
  2. 2Fed decision in September? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 3Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms - CNBCcnbc.com
  4. 4Why Fed Will Hold Rates Steady in September Against the Oddsnextpredict.io
  5. 5Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Unemployment Expectations Deteriorate - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
  6. 6Warsh Sounds Hawkish, but Will There Be a September Rate Hike?morningstar.com
  7. 7September FOMC: How XPredict Prices Hold, Hike, and Cutxt.com
  8. 8It Takes Two to Make an Economy Go Rightclevelandfed.org
  9. 9SORCE Insights: An Update on Firms’ Costs and Pricesclevelandfed.org
  10. 10https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762?r=kirillspepolymarket.com

9. Will the September 15-16, 2026, FOMC meeting include an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and how might it differ from the June 2026 projections?

FOMC Meeting DateSeptember 15-16, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]
Probability of 25 bps rate hike (early Aug 2026)55-58% [8]
July 2026 FOMC Vote (Hold Rates)9-3 [8]
The September 2026 FOMC meeting will feature updated economic projections. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, is set to include an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and its accompanying "dot plot" [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. The SEP is a quarterly release, issued in March, June, September, and December, that provides participants' projections for crucial economic indicators. These indicators encompass real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, inflation, and the projected path of the federal funds rate [9][10]. The upcoming September projections will incorporate current economic conditions, thereby updating the figures previously released in June 2026 [9][10].
Market participants hold divided views on the September interest rate decision. As of early August 2026, predictions regarding the September interest rate decision showed a split among market participants. Prediction markets indicated a slightly higher probability, approximately 55-58%, for a 25-basis-point rate hike, contrasting with a 41-43% probability of maintaining current rates [8]. This sentiment followed the July 2026 FOMC meeting, where the committee voted 9-3 to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. In that meeting, three dissenting members had advocated for a 25-basis-point increase [8].
Sources (10)
  1. 1The Fed - Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reservefederalreserve.gov
  2. 22026 FOMC Meeting Schedule: Sep 15–16 & All Dates | FedRateCalcfedratecalc.com
  3. 3FOMC Meeting Schedule September 2026 - Dates & Timefedratecalc.com
  4. 4FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate...fred.stlouisfed.org
  5. 5Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint (FEDTARRMLR) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  6. 6Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Median (FEDTARMDLR) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  7. 7Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint (FEDTARCTMLR) | FRED | St. Louis Fedfred.stlouisfed.org
  8. 8September 2026 Fed Meeting: September 15–16 FOMC Guidepolymarkettrader.com
  9. 9Summary of Economic Projections, September 17, 2025newyorkfed.org
  10. 10Introduction to the CME FedWatch Tool - CME Groupcmegroup.com

10. Which leading economic indicators, beyond CPI and jobs data, will Jerome Powell and the FOMC weigh most heavily for the September 2026 decision?

Preferred Inflation GaugePersonal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), especially core PCE [1][2]
Labor Market IndicatorJOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) for labor demand breadth [2][3]
Consumer Unemployment ExpectationsHighest level since April 2020 (as of early September 2026) [4][5][6]
The FOMC prioritizes specific inflation measures and external economic influences. For its September 2026 decision, Jerome Powell and the FOMC will primarily focus on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, particularly core PCE, as their preferred inflation gauge [1][2]. Beyond the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and top-line jobs data, significant factors include energy price volatility, especially oil, and geopolitical tensions, due to their impact on inflationary pressures and supply chain stability [1][2]. The FOMC also considers consumer inflation expectations, such as those from the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations [5], and business survey data on pricing and demand from sources like the Cleveland Fed SORCE [7][8].
Broader labor market health, financial stability, and overall economic activity are crucial. Labor market health is assessed using a broader view, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) to monitor labor demand beyond just the unemployment rate and payrolls [2][3]. Policymakers are also closely watching financial conditions, noting factors like AI-related investment affecting economic activity [9], and various financial condition indices (FCI) [4][10][11], yield spreads, and monetary policy indices [5][7][8][12]. As of early September 2026, the FOMC operates in an environment where inflation remains elevated, but labor market signals indicate cooling, with consumer unemployment expectations reaching their highest point since April 2020 [4][5][6]. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI) are also critical for gauging economic activity and balancing the Fed's dual mandate goals [4][10][11].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Fed September 2026: Prediction Market Odds | PMFpredictionsmarketfans.com
  2. 2September 2026 Fed Meeting: September 15–16 FOMC Guidepolymarkettrader.com
  3. 3Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - 2026 M07 Resultsbls.gov
  4. 4GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)bea.gov
  5. 5Medium-Term Inflation Expectations Tick Down; Unemployment Expectations Deteriorate - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORKnewyorkfed.org
  6. 6Tech Earnings Wrap and Shifting Fed Rate Hike Probabilitiescmegroup.com
  7. 7SORCE Insights: An Update on Firms’ Costs and Pricesclevelandfed.org
  8. 8It Takes Two to Make an Economy Go Rightclevelandfed.org
  9. 9Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committeefederalreserve.gov
  10. 10Monetary Policy and Financial Conditions - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  11. 11Focusing on Fundamentals Amid Great Complexity - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantaatlantafed.org
  12. 12Balancing Act: The Dual Mandate on an Economic Tightropeclevelandfed.org

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The August 2026 CPI release, scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, is expected to be a major catalyst for the upcoming Federal Reserve decision [1][2][3].
The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15–16, 2026 [4][5][6][7]. The interest rate decision, Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and "dot plot" will be announced on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 2:00 PM ET, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 PM ET [4][5][6][7].
Market sentiment, supported by a strong August jobs report showing 162,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1 percent, currently leans toward a 60-65% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September [1][8][9][10][11]. The decision environment is characterized by political pressure from the Trump administration to avoid hikes and concerns over inflation remaining above the 2% target [1][8][12][9]. Market participants use the CME FedWatch Tool to assess the probability of FOMC rate moves [13][14][15].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: September 16, 2026
Sources (15)
  1. 1Markets View September Rate Hike As More Likely Than Notforbes.com
  2. 2Schedule of Selected Releases for September 2026data.bls.gov
  3. 3September 2026 U.S. Economic Calendar: CPI, Jobs & Fed | FedRateCalcfedratecalc.com
  4. 4Federal Reserve Board - Calendar: September 2026federalreserve.gov
  5. 5The Fed - Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reservefederalreserve.gov
  6. 6FOMC Meeting Schedule September 2026 - Dates & Timefedratecalc.com
  7. 7FOMC Rate Decision September 2026: Date, Time & What to Expect | Finance Calendarfinancecalendar.com
  8. 8Strong job gains signal Fed hike as Trump levels new rate-cut demandreuters.com
  9. 9Will the Fed Hike Rates in September? A 25-Basis-Point Move Is...chase.com
  10. 10Employment Situation Summary - 2026 M08 Resultsbls.gov
  11. 11Employment Situation News Release - 2026 M08 Resultsbls.gov
  12. 12Trump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms - CNBCcnbc.com
  13. 13FedWatch - CME Groupcmegroup.com
  14. 14CME FedWatch Tool User Guidecmegroup.com
  15. 15Introduction to the CME FedWatch Tool - CME Groupcmegroup.com