Topic tracker · Elections
Primary margins of victory
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (0 live, 3 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Primary margins of victory markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 10, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory | April 28, 2027 | 7.7% vs 5.0% | Report → |
| Georgia Republican Governor primary: first round margin of victory | May 19, 2027 | 8.5% vs 11.0% | Report → |
| Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary? | June 9, 2027 | 5.3% vs 8.2% | Report → |
