Topic tracker · Elections

Primary margins of victory

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 5 so far (5 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Primary margins of victory markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated August 26, 2026

Live markets

Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff margin of victory? Kalshi

Gentner Drummond, 0-3%

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

Mike Mazzei, 0-3%

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

96.8K contracts Refresh

FL-07 Republican primary margin of victory? Kalshi

Ryan Elijah, 12-16%

Market Model 97.0% 69.0%

Ryan Elijah, ≥20%

Market Model 1.0% 0.0%

28.8K contracts Refresh

Los Angeles mayoral election first round: margin of victory Kalshi

Spencer Pratt wins

Market Model 31.0% 23.1%

Karen Bass, 4-8%

Market Model 14.0% 19.5%

35.5K contracts Refresh

Georgia Republican Governor primary: first round margin of victory Kalshi

Burt Jones, 3-6%

Market Model 96.0% 34.6%

Rick Jackson, 6-9%

Market Model 23.0% 8.5%

1.7K contracts Refresh

Margin of victory in the Maine Democratic Senate primary? Kalshi

Graham Platner, ≥50%

Market Model 20.0% 18.8%

Graham Platner, 30-40%

Market Model 20.0% 18.8%

4.7K contracts Refresh

HUMAN MACHINE