Alabama Republican Senate nominee 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Barry Moore is identified as Donald Trump's preferred candidate.
- Steve Marshall shows strong early fundraising from Alabama donors.
- Marshall secured the significant endorsement of the Alabama Farmers Federation.
- Moore's campaign has established 56 county coordinators statewide.
- Jared Hudson also established a comprehensive 67-county captain network.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Moore | 90.1% | 78.1% | Donald Trump's preferred candidate and strong county-level organization give Barry Moore a significant advantage. |
| Jared Hudson | 9.9% | 16.7% | Jared Hudson lacks significant public endorsements, major fundraising, or widespread visible campaign infrastructure. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 17, 2026: 10.1pp spike
Price increased from 80.0% to 90.1%
Outcome: Barry Moore
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Barry Moore wins the Republican Party's nomination for the 2026 Alabama Senate seat, with the outcome verified by state governments. Conversely, it resolves to "No" if he does not secure the nomination. The market opened on August 12, 2025, and will close either when Moore wins the nomination or by November 3, 2026, 10:00 AM EST, if he does not; payouts are projected 30 minutes after closing. The event is noted as mutually exclusive.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Moore | $0.91 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Jared Hudson | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
Market Discussion
The market overwhelmingly favors Barry Moore as the Alabama Republican Senate nominee at 81%. However, some traders believe Jared Hudson, currently at 17%, has momentum and will experience rapid growth, potentially forcing a runoff with Moore. Steve Marshall is seen as a very distant third with 3.1% of the market.
5. Which Candidates Show High-Level Communication with Trump's Orbit?
| Trump's Preferred Candidate | Barry Moore for Alabama U.S. Senate [1] |
|---|---|
| Candidate Mar-a-Lago Engagement | Rodney Walker's campaign [2] |
| Key Trump Campaign Advisors | Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita (Co-chairs) [3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Who is Barry Moore? Trump’s Alabama US Senate pick is an early supporter with political rootsal.com
- 2Rodney Walker takes Senate campaign to Mar-a-Lago - Alabama Gazettealabamagazette.com
- 3Chris LaCivita's homecoming: He and Susie Wiles helped Trump return to the White Housewashingtonexaminer.com
- 4Donald Trump's secret weapon: Mild-mannered Florida woman Susie Wilestuscaloosanews.com
6. How Did Bruce Pearl and Steve Marshall's Q1/Q2 2025 Senate Fundraising Compare?
| Bruce Pearl Senate Campaign Status | Did not run for U.S. Senate in 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Steve Marshall Total Raised (Q1/Q2 2025) | $406,208.57 [2] |
| Steve Marshall In-State Contributions | Over 90% from Alabama donors [3] |
7. Did ALFA and BCA Endorse Same U.S. Senate Candidate?
| ALFA U.S. Senate Endorsement | Steve Marshall for U.S. Senate (2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| BCA U.S. Senate Endorsement Status | None indicated for 2026 U.S. Senate [2] |
| BCA ProgressPAC Funds | $4.2 million for 2026 elections [2] |
Sources (5)
- 1ALFA reveals 2026 cycle endorsements — FarmPAC backs Marshall, Allen, Robertson, Hill, Dobson, Chen1819news.com
- 2Alabama Business Council Raises $4.2 Million for 2026 Elections – HERE Huntsvilleherehuntsville.com
- 3Steve Marshall Launches Farmers for Steve Marshall Coalition In Addition to Alabama FarmPAC Endorsement - Steve Marshall for Senatestevemarshallforsenate.com
- 4BCA's ProgressPAC Endorses Pro-Business Legislative Champions - The Business Council of Alabamabcatoday.org
- 5BCA ProgressPAC Backs Allen for Alabama Lt. Governoralpolitics.com
8. Which Alabama Campaigns Have Established County-Level Networks and Offices?
| Jared Hudson County Network | All 67 counties [1] |
|---|---|
| Barry Moore Coordinators | 56 county coordinators [2], [3], [4] |
| Rodney Walker Physical Offices | 5 physical offices [5] |
Sources (7)
- 1Jared Hudson names county captain network in all 67 counties, reports $1.5 million haul since January | Alabama Politicsspotonalabama.com
- 2Barry Moore unveils 56 county coordinators in Alabama U.S. Senate bid - Yellowhammer Newsyellowhammernews.com
- 3Barry Moore Campaign Releases List of 56 County Coordinatorsalpolitics.com
- 4Barry Moore unveils 56 county coordinators in Alabama U.S. Senate bid | Alabama Politicsspotonalabama.com
- 5Rodney Walker's Senate campaign opens five offices across statealreporter.com
- 6Steve Marshall Launches Statewide County Chairmen for U.S. Senate race - Steve Marshall for Senatestevemarshallforsenate.com
- 7Steve Marshall's U.S. Senate campaign announces chairmen in 47 Alabama counties | Alabama Politicsspotonalabama.com
9. Who Holds Highest Second-Choice Support in Alabama Senate Primary?
| Second-choice preference data for late 2025 polls | Not available (Based on [1]) |
|---|---|
| Specific candidate second-choice percentages | Not found in provided research (Based on [1]) |
| Polling timeframe covered by research | General polling for 2026 primary, not late 2025 specific second-choice (Based on [1]) |