Georgia Republican Senate nominee 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Brian Kemp definitively announced he will not run for Senate.
- Buddy Carter leads in fundraising among active Republican candidates.
- Marjorie Taylor-Greene lacks specific public endorsements and fundraising data.
- Both Carter and Collins primarily rely on large-dollar donor contributions.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Collins | 87.0% | 61.5% | Market higher by 25.5pp |
| Brian Kemp | 1.0% | 0.4% | Market higher by 0.6pp |
| Buddy Carter | 5.0% | 25.0% | Model higher by 20.0pp |
| Derek Dooley | 12.0% | 8.0% | Market higher by 4.0pp |
| Marjorie Taylor-Greene | 1.0% | 0.8% | Market higher by 0.2pp |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 28, 2026: 14.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 24.0%
Outcome: Buddy Carter
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if Mike Collins wins the Republican Party's nomination for the 2026 Class II Georgia Senate seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. The outcome will be verified from state government sources. The market opened on May 5, 2025, and will close upon Collins winning the nomination or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Collins | $0.88 | $0.13 | 87% |
| Derek Dooley | $0.13 | $0.91 | 12% |
| Buddy Carter | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| Brad Raffensperger | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Brian Kemp | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| John King | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Marjorie Taylor-Greene | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Reagan Box | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Rich McCormick | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Who Has Endorsements for Georgia's 2026 Senate Race?
| Brian Kemp's 2026 Senate Candidacy | Not running for U.S. Senate [1] |
|---|---|
| Marjorie Taylor-Greene's 2026 Senate Candidacy | Potential candidate [2] |
| MTG Endorsements from Specified Individuals | No public endorsements reported [3] |
6. What Are Georgia Republican Senate Candidates' Q1-Q2 2024 Fundraising Sources?
| Mike Collins Total Receipts | $417,008.00 (Q1 & Q2 2024 FEC filings) [1] |
|---|---|
| Buddy Carter Total Receipts | $629,050.00 (Q1 & Q2 2024 FEC filings) [2] |
| Dooley for Georgia Total Receipts | $25,000.00 (Q1 & Q2 2024 FEC filings) [3] |
7. Which Candidate Secured Georgia GOP County Chair Endorsements by Q2 2025?
| County Chair Endorsements Status | Data on majority endorsements from Georgia's Republican county-level party chairs by Q2 2025 is not available [1]. |
|---|---|
| GRA Endorsement Conventions | Held April 24, 2025 [2], and around April 29, 2025 [3] |
| Prediction Market Odds | Available for 2026 Georgia Republican Senate nominee [4] |
Sources (6)
- 12025 GRA Endorsements - The Georgia Republican Assemblygeorgiara.com
- 27th & 11th Regional Endorsement Convention Selects District Candidates - The Georgia Republican Assemblygeorgiara.com
- 3GRA Wins BIG at the GA GOP Congressional District Conventions - The Georgia Republican Assemblygeorgiara.com
- 4Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner Predictions & Od... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 5Georgia Republicans re-elect Josh McKoon as GOP chairman at annual conventionwuga.org
- 6Georgia Republican Senate nominee? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
8. Georgia GOP Senate Primary: Moderate Voter Favorability in H1 2025?
| H1 2025 GA GOP Primary Polling | No specific data on moderate/independent voter favorability found [1]. |
|---|---|
| Relevant Polling Dates Found | October and November 2025 (AJC poll [1], AJC article [2]) |
| Other Source Types | Prediction markets (PredictIt [3], Polymarket [4]); different election cycles (2024 Presidential [5], 2022 Gubernatorial [6], 2026 Gubernatorial [7]) |
Sources (8)
- 1Senate poll: Ossoff riding high in Georgia; MAGA firebrand leads GOP field.ajc.com
- 2How Georgia Republicans feel about governor, Senate races and key state issuesajc.com
- 32026 US Senate Predictions | Who will win the Georgia Republican Senate primary?predictit.org
- 4Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner Predictions & Od... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 5Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News - ABC Newsprojects.fivethirtyeight.com
- 6Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News - ABC Newsprojects.fivethirtyeight.com
- 7Georgia Statewide 2026 GOP Primary | co/efficientcoefficient.org
- 8Georgia Senate seat would be toss-up between Kemp and Ossoffajc.com
9. Will Brian Kemp Run for U.S. Senate in 2026?
| Senate Run Decision | Not running for U.S. Senate in 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Decision Reported | Early May 2025 [1] |
| Deadline for Candidacy | January 31, 2026 [1] |