Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Peggy Flanagan to be the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market opened with a high probability of 81.0%, which has served as an early resistance level. Since its launch, the price has followed a consistent, gradual downward trend, falling to its current level of 76.0%. The trading range has been established between the 81.0% high and a low of 71.0%, which may now act as a support level. The steady decline in probability suggests a slow and steady erosion of market confidence in the outcome. As no specific news or developments were provided as context, this price action does not appear to be a reaction to any single event, but rather a reflection of shifting baseline sentiment among traders over time.
The total trading volume of 2,228 contracts indicates a moderate level of interest and financial commitment from market participants. However, the sample data points show zero volume on those specific days, suggesting that trading activity may be intermittent rather than constant. This pattern can imply that conviction builds or changes in bursts, rather than through a continuous flow of trades. The overall price action suggests that while the market still heavily favors a "YES" outcome with a 76.0% probability, sentiment has become less certain since trading began. The market is pricing in a slightly higher degree of uncertainty or the potential for an alternative outcome than it did initially.
  • Senator Tina Smith's endorsement of Flanagan strongly implies she will not seek re-election.
  • Peggy Flanagan received a direct U.S. Senate endorsement from Senator Smith.
  • Senator Smith publicly favored Flanagan over Angie Craig for the nomination.
  • Tina Smith's campaign showed strong Q1 2025 fundraising and re-election focus.
  • Other contenders like Omar and Ellison lack active bids or key endorsements.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Angie Craig 26.0% 18.4% Angie Craig was explicitly passed over by Senator Tina Smith, who endorsed Peggy Flanagan instead.
Peggy Flanagan 76.0% 72.8% Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan received a key endorsement from sitting Senator Tina Smith for the U.S. Senate.
Ilhan Omar 1.0% 1.1% No declared campaign or significant traction for the nomination has emerged for this candidate.
Melisa López Franzen 1.0% 1.1% No declared campaign or significant traction for the nomination has emerged for this candidate.
Jacob Frey 1.0% 1.1% No declared campaign or significant traction for the nomination has emerged for this candidate.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Peggy Flanagan wins the Democratic Party's nomination for the 2026 Class II Minnesota Senate seat; otherwise, it resolves to "No," as the event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on March 28, 2025, and will close upon the outcome's occurrence or by November 3, 2026, at 10:00 am EST. Outcome verification will be sourced from state governments.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Peggy Flanagan $0.76 $0.29 76%
Angie Craig $0.22 $0.79 26%
Betty McCollum $0.01 $1.00 1%
David Wellstone $0.01 $1.00 1%
Ilhan Omar $0.02 $1.00 1%
Jacob Frey $0.01 $1.00 1%
Keith Ellison $0.01 $1.00 1%
Melisa López Franzen $0.01 $1.00 1%
Melissa Hortman $0.01 $1.00 1%
Steve Simon $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Traders discussing the Minnesota Democratic Senate nominee largely support Peggy Flanagan, highlighting her perceived authenticity, independence from PAC money, and alignment with progressive politics, even suggesting she could be the first Native and Anishinaabe woman in the US Senate. Conversely, Angie Craig is criticized as an "establishment candidate," "spineless," and compared to Kyrsten Sinema, partly due to her alleged acceptance of AIPAC funds. The market reflects this sentiment, showing a strong consensus for Flanagan as the likely nominee.

4. What is Tina Smith's 2025-2026 campaign fundraising status?

Q1 2025 Total Receipts$530,361.08 [1]
Q1 2025 Cash on Hand$1,053,744.15 [1]
Q1 2019 Total Receipts$300,105.77 [2]
Senator Tina Smith's campaign reported strong early fundraising for 2025. Her principal campaign committee, Tina Smith for Minnesota, recorded $530,361.08 in total receipts for the first quarter of 2025. By March 31, 2025, the campaign concluded the quarter with $1,053,744.15 cash on hand [1]. Total disbursements for Q1 2025 were $82,357.69. Information for the second quarter of 2025 is not yet publicly available [3].
Smith's 2025 fundraising significantly surpasses her 2019 re-election cycle's start. Compared to Q1 2019, when her campaign reported $300,105.77 in total receipts and $173,088.37 cash on hand, Q1 2025 figures represent a substantial increase [2]. For further context, in Q2 2019, her campaign raised $638,054.34 and had $705,744.38 cash on hand [2].
Regarding her 2026 re-election bid, no new senior staff hires are confirmed. Senator Smith is actively focusing on her campaign [4]. However, the available sources do not contain publicly available information specifying whether she has hired a new 2026 campaign manager or other senior staff [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1The Downballot's 1Q 2025 Senate and House fundraising reports roundupthe-downballot.com
  2. 2TINA SMITH FOR MINNESOTA - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  3. 3TINA SMITH FOR MINNESOTA - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  4. 4Tina Smith looks to 2026 re-election bid as she departs DSCC vice chair rolestartribune.com

5. Who Has Endorsed Peggy Flanagan for 2026 U.S. Senate?

Peggy Flanagan EndorsementSenator Tina Smith (ahead of Caucus Night in February 2026) [1]
Klobuchar/Walz EndorsementsNo specific information found for 2026 U.S. Senate race [2]
Tina Smith's PreferenceFavors Peggy Flanagan "over Angie Craig" [1]
Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan received an early, significant DFL endorsement from Senator Tina Smith. Senator Smith publicly declared her support for Flanagan ahead of Caucus Night in February 2026, explicitly favoring her "over Angie Craig" for the U.S. Senate seat [1]. This endorsement from a prominent DFL figure signals strong backing from a major party leader and highlights Flanagan as a preferred candidate, reflecting a larger debate over the future direction of Democrats [1].
Senator Klobuchar and Governor Walz have not yet publicly signaled support for any candidate. The available research does not detail specific signals of support, such as key staff hires, PAC donations, or public praise, from Senator Amy Klobuchar or Governor Tim Walz for any particular candidate in the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota [2]. While Governor Walz has expressed an intention to be active in 2026 midterm races, the provided sources do not indicate an endorsement or specific support from him for a DFL U.S. Senate primary candidate [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Tina Smith endorses Peggy Flanagan over Angie Craig in Minnesota Senate race - NewsBreaknewsbreak.com
  2. 2A look ahead at the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Tim Walz says he'll play active role in 2026 midterm raceswww2.startribune.com

6. Who Secured Key MN Progressive Endorsements by EOY 2025?

Peggy Flanagan Indivisible EndorsementEndorsed for U.S [1]. Senate [2]
TakeAction/Our Revolution MN EndorsementsNone found for 2026 U.S [1]. Senate race by EOY 2025 [2]
Candidate Meeting 2+ Endorsement CriteriaNone confirmed by EOY 2025 [1]
Peggy Flanagan secured an Indivisible endorsement for her 2026 U.S. Senate campaign. Flanagan has received an endorsement from Indivisible for her U.S. Senate campaign in Minnesota [3]. This endorsement is part of Indivisible's "first 2026 primary endorsements," which includes backing "three progressive candidates" [2]. While Indivisible endorses multiple progressive candidates, based on the provided sources, there is no information indicating that Indivisible has also endorsed Ilhan Omar or Keith Ellison for the U.S. Senate. This makes Flanagan's endorsement from Indivisible appear exclusive among these three specific candidates in the provided research.
No candidate meets the criteria for multiple exclusive progressive endorsements. To satisfy the research question, a candidate must secure exclusive endorsements from at least two of the three specified organizations: TakeAction Minnesota, Our Revolution MN, or Indivisible MN. The available sources do not explicitly confirm any endorsements for Ilhan Omar or Keith Ellison from any of the listed organizations for the 2026 U.S. Senate race by EOY 2025. Furthermore, there is no explicit information confirming endorsements for Peggy Flanagan, Ilhan Omar, or Keith Ellison from TakeAction Minnesota or Our Revolution MN that directly pertains to the 2026 U.S. Senate race by EOY 2025 [4]. Therefore, based on the available research, no candidate currently meets the specified condition of securing exclusive endorsements from at least two of the three key Minnesota progressive organizations by EOY 2025.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Endorsements - Peggy Flanagan for Minnesotapeggyflanagan.com
  2. 2We're excited to announce our first... - Indivisible Guide | Facebookfacebook.com
  3. 3Peggy Flanagan US Senate MN | Indivisibleindivisible.org
  4. 4TakeAction Minnesota announces full slate of legislative endorsements  - TakeAction MNtakeactionminnesota.org

7. Can Angie Craig's Out-of-District Contributions Be Determined?

Calculation FeasibilityPercentage of individual campaign contributions from outside Minnesota's 2nd congressional district cannot be calculated from provided research [1].
Missing DataSources lack a list of zip codes defining Minnesota's 2nd congressional district [1].
Available DataAngie Craig's campaign committee 'Angie Craig for Minnesota' [2] provides detailed individual contributor information, including zip codes [3].
The requested contribution percentage from outside the district cannot be determined. The precise percentage of individual campaign contributions for suburban-based candidate Angie Craig originating from zip codes outside of Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, which would measure her ability to build a statewide financial base, cannot be calculated from the available web research results. This is primarily because the provided sources do not include a definitive list or definition of the specific zip codes that constitute Minnesota's 2nd congressional district.
Available filings detail individual contributor information, including their zip codes. While Angie Craig maintains the 'Angie Craig for Minnesota' committee [2], and its Schedule A provides detailed individual contributor information, including zip codes [3], the essential data needed for geographic analysis is absent. To accurately perform the requested analysis, the zip codes of her contributors, detailed in FEC Disclosure Form 3 [4] and its associated Schedule A [3], would need to be compared against a comprehensive list of zip codes defining the 2nd congressional district. Without this crucial geographic boundary information, the requested calculation cannot be performed to assess contributions from outside that district.
Sources (4)
  1. 1FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Angie Craig for Congressdocquery.fec.gov
  2. 2ANGIE CRAIG FOR MINNESOTA - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  3. 3Schedule A for ALL Line #'sdocquery.fec.gov
  4. 4FEC Disclosure Form 3 for Angie Craig for Minnesotadocquery.fec.gov

8. What are the 2026 Minnesota DFL endorsement process deadlines?

Precinct CaucusesTuesday, February 4, 2026 [1]
DFL State ConventionMay 30-31, 2026 [1]
Campaign Chairs by Q2 2025No specific data available from provided sources [2]
The 2026 DFL endorsement process begins in early February. Key organizational deadlines for seeking the official Minnesota DFL party endorsement at the 2026 state convention commence with precinct caucuses on Tuesday, February 4, 2026 [1]. These caucuses are the initial step, where local delegates are selected [3]. Following this, Senate District conventions are scheduled throughout March and April 2026, typically concluding by mid-April [1]. Subsequently, Congressional District conventions will occur throughout April and May 2026 [1]. The final and decisive event for statewide endorsements, such as for the U.S. Senate, is the DFL State Convention, slated for May 30-31, 2026 [1], where candidates seek the party's official endorsement [1].
Specific data on candidate county chairs is currently unavailable. Regarding candidates who have established campaign chairs in at least 50 of Minnesota's 87 counties by the end of Q2 2025, the provided web research does not contain specific data to identify any candidates meeting this organizational metric [2]. While individuals such as Melisa López Franzen [4], Scott Dibble [5], and Peggy Flanagan [6] are potential candidates for the 2026 U.S. Senate election, and incumbent Senator Tina Smith [2] is widely expected to seek re-election, the available sources do not publish detailed internal campaign organizational data, such as the number of county chairs established by a specific deadline.
Sources (6)
  1. 1https://dfl.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/1.a-2025-08-02-2026-2027-Call-Draft-Rev-004.pdfdfl.org
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Minnesotaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Minnesota's party endorsement conventions are weeks away. Here's how the state's major elections are shaping up - CBS Minnesotacbsnews.com
  4. 4Melisa for MNmelisaforminnesota.com
  5. 5Scott Dibble for Minnesota Senatescottdibble.com
  6. 6Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota | Democrat for U.S. Senatepeggyflanagan.com