LA-02 Democratic nominee?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Troy Carter holds over $1.6M cash-on-hand, indicating strong funding.
- Incumbent Troy Carter secured robust institutional and national party endorsements.
- Renada Collins lacks FEC filings, finances, and organizational campaign structure.
- John Day shows minimal campaign presence, lacking finances and endorsements.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renada Collins | 4.0% | 2.3% | Renada Collins lacks campaign finance data or institutional endorsements, indicating severe viability issues. |
| Troy Carter | 95.2% | 97.7% | Incumbent Troy Carter has a significant financial advantage and strong institutional endorsements. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Troy Carter wins the Democratic Party nomination for the 2026 LA-02 House seat; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The outcome is verified by the Democratic and Republican Party websites. The market opened on February 26, 2026, and will close after the outcome occurs, or by November 3, 2027, if the outcome is not determined by then. Individuals employed by the specified "Source Agencies" are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Carter | $0.99 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Renada Collins | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Trust Index
“Renada Collins” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
Trust score capped by Market integrity (20).
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Market integrity 20 is below the safety floor of 30, so the score can't exceed 40.
5. Which Candidates Hold Endorsements in LA-02 Democratic Primary?
| Troy Carter 2026 Endorsements | Orleans Parish Democratic Executive Committee (OPDEC), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DSCC) [1] |
|---|---|
| Renada Collins 2026 Endorsements | None identified from key organizations or prominent leaders [2] |
| Troy Carter 2021 Endorsements | Louisiana AFL-CIO, Congressional Black Caucus PAC [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1The DSCC Has Made Its Picks in Louisiana’s Democratic Primaries - The Bayou Progressivebayouprogressive.com
- 2Renada Collins - Ballotpediadocker.ballotpedia.org
- 3Troy Carter receives two important endorsements in the race to replace Cedric Richmond | Local Politics | nola.comprojects.nola.com
- 4Endorsed Candidatesopdecla.org
- 5JEFFERSON PARISH DEMOCRATIC EXECUTIVE COMMITTEEjpdemocrats.org
6. What are the 2026 campaign finance details for Troy Carter and Renada Collins?
| Troy Carter Cash-on-Hand | $1,617,219.86 (as of December 31, 2025) [1] |
|---|---|
| Troy Carter 2026 Operating Expenditures | $28,665.48 (as of December 31, 2025) [1] |
| Renada Collins 2026 Financial Data | No financial data on file with FEC [2] |
7. What are LA-02 Democratic Candidates' Stances on Crime and Infrastructure?
| Troy Carter's Crime Focus | Securing federal funding for criminal justice initiatives (New Orleans) [1] |
|---|---|
| Renada Collins's Platform | Comprehensive approach to crime (root causes, law enforcement) and federal investment in modernizing infrastructure (roads, bridges, public transit, broadband) [2] |
| John Day's Platform | Addressing systemic issues contributing to crime (community policing, prevention) and federal investment in repairing infrastructure (roads, bridges, ports, renewable energy) [3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Congressman Carter, Mayor Cantrell Announce New Funding for Criminal Justice Initiatives in New Orleans | Representative Troy Cartertroycarter.house.gov
- 2Renada Collins For You - Congressional District 2 Candidaterenadacollinsforyou.com
- 3John Day for Congressjohndayforcongress.com
- 4Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026 (May 16 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
8. Are Internal Polls for LA-02 Showing Incumbent Deviations?
| LA-02 Internal Polling Data | No information available regarding non-public or local polling data [1] |
|---|---|
| Deviation from Incumbent Support (LA-02) | No significant deviations from expected incumbent support reported among specific voter blocs [1] |
| Public Polling on LA-02 Election | Not reported; public poll pertained to a Louisiana Senate primary race [2] |
9. What is the Ad Buy Advantage for Carter and Collins in LA-02?
| TV Ad Schedule | Specific details for final 21 days not available [1] |
|---|---|
| Digital Ad Volume | Specific details for final 21 days not available [1] |
| Ad Messaging Focus | Specific details for New Orleans market not available [1] |