Topic tracker · Elections
Election place in primaries
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Election place in primaries markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 8, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Senate Democratic primary: 2nd place | August 4, 2027 | 24.3% vs 31.0% | Report → |
| Florida Republican governor primary: 2nd place | August 18, 2027 | 24.9% vs 19.0% | Report → |
