Short Answer

Voter turnout exceeding 220,000 in the Louisiana 06 House General Election is priced as likely by the market (88.0%), although expectations for lower turnout from a December runoff in a less competitive district lead the model to a 76.8% probability.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Market expectations for voter turnout in Louisiana's 6th congressional district have collapsed since late September. The probability of turnout exceeding the contract's threshold fell from 73.0% on September 27 to 4.0% by October 11. The drivers for this steep decline are not apparent from available information.

Research identified several sharp but short-lived price spikes during this period, including on October 1, October 5, and October 8. However, no specific news event, social media narrative, or other catalyst was found to coincide with these movements. The price action in a market with only 1,000 total contracts traded suggests low liquidity may be a factor.

The broader context includes a revised election calendar, with a November 3 primary and a December 12 general election, which followed congressional map litigation. As of October 11, a related market contract asking if total participation will exceed 193,000 votes priced the outcome at just 25%, consistent with the contract's overall downward trajectory.

The December runoff and redrawn district suggest lower overall voter turnout.
Turnout above 193,000 appears likely, given the district's strong Republican lean.
Turnout exceeding 220,000 appears less likely, near 2022's declining benchmark.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome	Market	Model	Why
Above 230K	4.0%	2.7%	The December runoff suggests turnout will likely fall below the 2022 benchmark of 235,928.
Above 193K	11.0%	85.0%	A December general election runoff in a less competitive district suggests lower overall turnout.
Above 210K	4.0%	80.0%	A December general election runoff in a less competitive district suggests lower overall turnout.
Above 200K	5.0%	83.0%	A December general election runoff in a less competitive district suggests lower overall turnout.
Above 220K	88.0%	76.8%	Turnout is expected to fall near or below 2022 levels due to the December runoff and less competitive district.

Current Context

Prediction markets currently price low turnout for Louisiana's 6th District election. As of October 11, 2026, a contract asking if total participation will exceed 193,000 votes quotes a Yes price of 25%, with a bid-ask range of 12%–21% and a last trade at 25% ^[1]. This threshold is a market question, not an observed result, as the November 3 primary and December 12 general election have not yet occurred ^[1]. The contract will resolve based on certified Louisiana Secretary of State results ^[1]. The election calendar changed following congressional map litigation; the general election is set for December 12, 2026, with a primary on November 3, 2026, and a runoff possible ^[2].

District 6, redrawn to favor Republicans, faces a crowded primary field. The new district, resulting from the Supreme Court's Louisiana v. Callais ruling, is described as Republican-leaning and includes much of metropolitan Baton Rouge, the River Parishes, and upper Bayou Lafourche ^[2]. Incumbent Cleo Fields is not seeking re-election ^[3]. The November primary lists 10 candidates: three Democrats, six Republicans, and one Libertarian ^[2]. A WBRZ/Greater Baton Rouge Economic Partnership poll of nearly 800 likely voters, conducted September 19–21, showed Rick Edmonds at 13.8%, Chauna Banks at 13.2%, Blake Miguez at 9.7%, Lindsay Garcia at 7.7%, and Patrick Forbes at 7.6%; all other candidates polled at 4% or below ^[3].

Forecasts heavily favor a Republican winner, but a runoff is probable. DDHQ's October 10 forecast assigned a 98% win probability to the Republican grouping and projected an R+23 margin ^[4]. Polymarket showed Republican Party odds around 92% versus Democratic Party odds around 7% ^[5]. A Kalshi-tracked market on October 9 indicated approximately 92.5% Republican and 8.4% Democratic odds ^[6]. Expert assessments characterize the seat as Safe/Solid Republican ^[3]. However, the crowded jungle primary field introduces uncertainty regarding which Republican will advance, making a December runoff likely ^[2]. A Democratic victory path would involve advancing from the primary and winning a low-turnout runoff ^[2].

Sources (6)

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability

Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Above 200K

📉 October 11, 2026: 87.0pp drop

Price decreased from 92.0% to 5.0%

What happened: Based on the provided information, the asserted 87.0 percentage point drop for the "Above 200K" outcome in the Louisiana 06 House General Election voter turnout market on October 11, 2026, cannot be attributed to any specific driver. The election was scheduled for November 3, 2026, meaning no official turnout data would be available by October 11, 2026 ^[1]^[2]. The supplied web research explicitly states that the "drop 87.0pp" does not correspond to observed election turnout results as of October 11, confirming only a live prediction market and no certified 2026 turnout ^[3]^[4]^[1]. Therefore, social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors cannot be identified as primary drivers for a market movement that is not supported by the provided data for the specified date.

📈 October 08, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 12.0%

What happened: No specific social media activity, viral narrative, or influential post was identified as a catalyst for the 12.0 percentage point price spike in the "Above 200K" turnout prediction market on October 8, 2026 ^[5]^[6]^[7]. The primary election-related news that day was an administrative error that temporarily switched approximately 67,000 statewide Louisiana voters to inactive status; however, officials clarified this did not affect eligibility ^[8]^[9]. While this event likely generated discussion, the available research provides no causal evidence linking this administrative error or any social media activity to the specific 12.0 percentage point increase in the market ^[8]^[10]^[11]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and the primary driver for this particular price movement remains unconfirmed by the provided sources.

📈 October 01, 2026: 54.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 54.0%

What happened: On October 1, 2026, no specific social media activity, traditional news story, or other catalyst was identified as the primary driver for a 54.0 percentage point spike in the "Above 200K" outcome for the Louisiana 06 House General Election voter turnout prediction market ^[12]^[13]^[6]. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, and official turnout numbers are unavailable at this time, with the market remaining speculative ^[14]^[1]^[15]. While campaign activity included candidate forums and mobilization efforts around this period, the provided research does not report any direct cause for such a significant market movement ^[13]^[6]^[12]. Therefore, social media was irrelevant in explaining this reported price movement based on the available information.

Outcome: Above 193K

📉 October 05, 2026: 40.0pp drop

Price decreased from 65.0% to 25.0%

What happened: The provided research does not corroborate a 40.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 193K" outcome for the Louisiana 06 House General Election turnout market on October 05, 2026 ^[1]^[4]^[15]. As the election is an all-party primary scheduled for November 3, 2026, with early voting in late October, official turnout figures would not be available by the alleged movement date ^[16]^[14]^[17]. Therefore, no primary driver, including social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors, could be identified for this unverified price movement; social media was irrelevant given the lack of evidence for the event itself ^[18].

📉 September 30, 2026: 27.0pp drop

Price decreased from 92.0% to 65.0%

What happened: The provided web research does not support the occurrence of a 27.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 193K" prediction market for the Louisiana 06 House General Election voter turnout on September 30, 2026 ^[1]^[4]^[15]. The available sources detail current market prices and election metadata but do not document the specified price movement or any correlating news or social media catalysts ^[1]^[4]^[15]. Consequently, identifying a primary driver for this non-documented movement, including any social media activity from key figures or viral narratives, is not feasible with the given information. Social media activity is irrelevant here as the market movement itself is unsubstantiated by the provided data.

Sources (18)

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves YES if the voter turnout for the Louisiana 06 U.S. House race's determinative election exceeds 193,000 votes, and NO if it is 193,000 or fewer. The relevant election round is either the November 3, 2026 open primary or the December 12, 2026 general election, depending on which one determinatively elects the representative. Only votes cast in that single, determinative round are counted, and votes from different rounds are not combined.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket	Yes (price)	No (price)	Last trade probability
Above 220K	$0.95	$1.00	88%
Above 193K	$0.84	$0.98	11%
Above 200K	$0.84	$1.00	5%
Above 210K	$0.98	$1.00	4%
Above 230K	$0.58	$1.00	4%
Above 100K	$0.98	$0.98	0%
Above 120K	$0.96	$0.98	0%
Above 60K	$0.99	$0.98	0%
Above 80K	$0.98	$0.98	0%

Market Discussion

On October 11, 2026, the prediction market for Louisiana 06 House General Election voter turnout indicated a low-confidence consensus below 193,000, contrasting with a more bullish September 29 snapshot ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This turnout is likely to be significantly influenced by the open-seat, ten-candidate primary on November 3, 2026, and the high probability of a December 12 runoff, with candidate mobilization emerging as a key factor in the solid Republican district ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]^[8]^[9].

Sources (9)

5. Trust Index

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up

Integrity80% of score83Good

Trade quality20% of score44High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile

Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply

6. What does historical turnout data from the 2022 and 2024 Louisiana 6th District elections suggest for the December 12, 2026 general election?

2022 LA 6th Dist. Turnout	235,928 total votes (2022 election) ^[1]^[2]
2024 LA 6th Dist. Turnout	296,033 total votes (2024 election) ^[3]^[4]^[5]
Turnout Increase (2024 vs 2022)	25.5% (increase from 2022 to 2024) ^[3]

The 2026 runoff anticipates significantly lower turnout than the presidential year. Historical turnout data from the 2022 and 2024 Louisiana 6th District elections suggests that the December 12, 2026 general election runoff will likely see substantially lower turnout than the 2024 presidential-year total ^[1]^[3]^[6]. The anticipated lower-salience December setting makes reaching above 230,000 votes less likely than exceeding 193,000, though both historical totals surpass the 193,000 threshold ^[1]^[3]^[7]^[8]^[6].

Historical data reveals distinct turnout patterns for Louisiana's 6th District. In 2022, a low-salience November election recorded 235,928 total votes ^[1]^[2]. Conversely, the 2024 election, which occurred during a presidential year, drew 296,033 total votes, representing a 25.5% increase from the 2022 figure ^[3]^[4]^[5]. The 2026 contest is scheduled with a November 3 primary and a potential December 12 general election runoff ^[6].

Turnout for the 2026 December runoff is projected significantly lower. A standalone December runoff in 2026 is expected to fall substantially below the 2024 total of 296,033 and could plausibly be near or below the 2022 total of 235,928 ^[1]^[3]^[6]. However, since both the 2022 and 2024 totals exceeded 193,000, a turnout above this threshold is historically defensible, particularly if the runoff proves competitive ^[1]^[3]^[7]^[6]. While a total above 193,000 is considered possible, achieving turnout above 230,000 is less likely, as it would require retaining at least 77.7% of the 2024 turnout despite the less prominent December timing ^[1]^[3]^[7]^[8].

Sources (8)

7. Which potential runoff matchup from the November 3 primary is most likely to drive voter turnout above the 193,000 threshold in the December 12 general election?

Turnout Threshold for Market	193,000 votes ^[1]^[2]
Market Election Date	November 3, 2026 (Louisiana 06 House general election) ^[1]^[2]
Threshold Probability	About 25% (on October 11, 2026) ^[1]^[2]

Insufficient verified information exists to predict runoff voter turnout. Research findings do not provide enough substantiated information to identify which potential runoff matchup is most likely to drive voter turnout above the 193,000 threshold in the December 12 general election. The available evidence does not establish a reliable November 3 primary candidate field, confirm a December 12 general-election date, or provide verified head-to-head runoff matchups for Louisiana's 6th Congressional District ^[1]^[2].

The election details and timing provided were incorrect. The prediction market in question is actually labeled for a November 3, 2026, Louisiana 06 House general election, not a December 12 general election. This market's 193,000-vote threshold was priced at approximately 25% on October 11, 2026 ^[1]^[2].

Candidate information from social media lacks independent verification. One search result mentioned Chedrick Greene winning a special election; however, this information originated from a Facebook post and lacked independently verified details sufficient to identify the most turnout-driving runoff matchup ^[3]. Given that the premise and candidate information are not substantiated by the retrieved sources, no defensible matchup-specific prediction can be made; any claim that a particular pairing is most likely to exceed 193,000 votes would be speculative ^[1]^[2].

Sources (3)

8. How do the fundraising totals and get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations of leading candidates Rick Edmonds and Chauna Banks compare as of the latest FEC filings?

Rick Edmonds Total Receipts	$512,092.45 ^[1]
Rick Edmonds Cash on Hand	$314,940 ^[2]^[3]
Chauna Banks Financial Activity	No disclosed financial activity ^[3]^[4]^[2]

Rick Edmonds has significantly outpaced Chauna Banks in fundraising as of recent filings. As of the latest FEC filings, Edmonds reported total receipts exceeding half a million dollars, specifically $512,092.45, between January 1 and July 18, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[5]. This sum includes $340,917 from individuals, $16,100 from committees, and $155,000 in candidate loans. Edmonds also reported $197,152.32 in disbursements and held $314,940 cash on hand ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[5]. In contrast, Chauna Banks' FEC candidate page shows no disclosed 2025–2026 financial activity, nor does Ballotpedia list any receipts or expenditures for her campaign, making a direct financial comparison impossible ^[3]^[4]^[2].

Comparable get-out-the-vote operation metrics are currently unavailable for either candidate. Publicly indexed sources did not document specific metrics such as canvass contacts, volunteer counts, or early-vote programs for either Edmonds' or Banks' campaigns ^[4]^[2]^[3]. Therefore, a firm operational comparison of their get-out-the-vote efforts cannot be made from the latest filings ^[4]^[2]^[3]. Both Edmonds and Banks were identified as primary candidates in the sources, with the Louisiana primary election scheduled for November 3, 2026, and the general election for December 12, 2026 ^[4]^[2]^[6].

Sources (6)

9. What is the official timeline for the Louisiana Secretary of State to certify and publish final vote totals for the December 12, 2026 election?

Final Certification Deadline	On or before Saturday, December 26, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Parish Returns Filing Deadline	Thursday, December 17, 2026, 4:00 p.m. ^[1]^[2]^[3]
Clerk Transmit to SOS Deadline	Friday, December 18, 2026, noon ^[1]^[2]^[3]

The Louisiana Secretary of State certifies election results by December 26, 2026. The official deadline for the Louisiana Secretary of State to promulgate the final certified vote totals for the U.S. Representative general election held on December 12, 2026, is on or before Saturday, December 26, 2026, assuming no timely contest is filed ^[1]^[2]^[3]. This timeline is established by statute for processing election returns ^[2]^[3].

Preceding steps include parish returns and transmission to the Secretary of State. Prior to the final certification, parish election returns must be filed with the clerk of court by 4:00 p.m. on Thursday, December 17, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. Subsequently, the clerk is required to transmit these results to the Secretary of State by noon on Friday, December 18, 2026 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. It is important to distinguish these official processes from unofficial election-night results, which are transmitted and posted progressively after polls close but do not represent the officially certified final totals necessary for prediction market resolution ^[4]^[5]^[6]^[7]. The Louisiana Secretary of State’s official 2026 calendar specifies the election date but does not include a separate publication date for the final vote totals ^[1]^[8]^[9]^[2]^[3].

Sources (9)

10. How are the newly redrawn district lines expected to influence partisan enthusiasm and voter registration trends in the Baton Rouge area before the 2026 election?

LA-06 Partisan Rating	R+16 ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]
Prediction Market Turnout (Above-193,000)	25% (October 11, 2026) ^[5]^[6]^[2]
Prediction Market Turnout (Above-230,000)	14% (October 11, 2026) ^[5]^[6]^[2]

Newly redrawn district lines significantly favor Republicans for the 2026 election. Louisiana's 6th Congressional District (LA-06) is expected to undergo substantial partisan shifts that generally benefit Republicans in the Baton Rouge area before the 2026 election ^[1]^[7]^[8]. Following a Supreme Court decision to strike down a previous map, the enacted replacement reestablishes LA-06 as a strongly Republican district, assessed with an R+16 rating ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. This redistricting effort primarily reallocates many Black voters out of the former LA-06 coalition, concentrating a significant portion of East Baton Rouge's Black population into another majority-Black district ^[3]^[4]^[9].

The new district is expected to boost Republican enthusiasm and registration. These changes are anticipated to diminish perceived competitiveness and reduce Democratic mobilization efforts within the redrawn LA-06, while simultaneously increasing Republican motivation ^[3]^[4]^[9]^[1]^[7]^[8]. The likely impact on partisan enthusiasm is asymmetric: Republican voters are expected to gain motivation from a clearer opportunity to pick up the seat, particularly given that incumbent Democrat Cleo Fields is not running, whereas Democratic voters face weaker incentives for candidacy and victory ^[1]^[2]^[3]^[4]. Consequently, there is an expectation of weaker Democratic voter registration growth and potential disengagement in the new LA-06, juxtaposed with gains in Republican registration and organizing as the district becomes more electorally significant to Republicans ^[1]^[2]^[8]^[4].

Current data limitations hinder precise forecasts, but trends are clear. While published sources do not provide current Baton Rouge precinct-level registration data, the direction of these partisan trends is considered defensible, even without precise numeric forecasts ^[1]^[2]^[8]^[4]. The prediction market for the November 3, 2026 election in Louisiana 06 currently indicates relatively modest turnout, with the 'Above-193,000' contract priced at approximately 25% and 'Above-230,000' at 14% as of October 11, 2026 ^[5]^[6]^[2]. However, this market primarily focuses on total votes cast, not directly on voter registration or partisan enthusiasm, and its prices do not indicate whether potential registration changes are Democratic or Republican ^[5]^[6].

Sources (9)

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The Louisiana 6th Congressional District election is set against a structurally Republican backdrop, with the redesigned district estimated at R+29.8 to R+34.2 for the 2024 presidential result and a Cook PVI of R+16 ^[1]^[2]^[3]. DDHQ projects an R+23 margin and assigns the Republican field a 98% combined win probability ^[2]. Prediction markets reflect this outlook, with Kalshi odds reporting a 92.5% Republican probability on October 9 and Polymarket showing 92% Republican on October 11 ^[4]^[5]. The primary field includes six Republican candidates, and the absence of a Democratic incumbent contributes to the bullish Republican market position ^[1].

Despite the strong Republican baseline, several factors introduce potential volatility. A nonpartisan open primary on November 3, 2026, features ten candidates: three Democrats, six Republicans, and one Libertarian ^[6]^[7]^[8]^[1]. A September 19–21 JMC poll revealed 35.7% of voters remain undecided, with leading candidates Rick Edmonds at 13.8% and Chauna Banks at 13.2% ^[1]. Turnout composition could also be a factor, given mixed historical context from prior elections under different district boundaries ^[9]^[3]^[10]. A fragmented open primary, post-primary candidate consolidation, or any late national or district-specific Democratic surge could influence the outcome ^[1].

The immediate timeline includes October 13 for online GeauxVote registration, and early voting from October 20–27, excluding Sunday, October 25 ^[7]^[8]^[1]. The primary election is scheduled for November 3, with polls open 6 a.m.–8 p.m. ^[7]^[8]. If no candidate secures a majority, a runoff election will occur on December 12, 2026 ^[6]^[7]^[8]. Key dates for a potential runoff include online registration by November 21 and early voting from November 28–December 5, excluding Sunday, November 29 ^[7]^[8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

Expiration: November 03, 2027
Closes: November 03, 2027

Sources (10)

12. Keep Exploring

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map. More US Elections markets See more us elections setups in the same theme. Browse all Elections markets Keep exploring adjacent elections markets. Track this in the app Open the live app flow and keep following this market in real time.

Louisiana 06 House General Election: voter turnout

Short Answer

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

3. Significant Price Movements

Outcome: Above 200K

📉 October 11, 2026: 87.0pp drop

📈 October 08, 2026: 12.0pp spike

📈 October 01, 2026: 54.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 193K

📉 October 05, 2026: 40.0pp drop

📉 September 30, 2026: 27.0pp drop

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

5. Trust Index

6. What does historical turnout data from the 2022 and 2024 Louisiana 6th District elections suggest for the December 12, 2026 general election?

7. Which potential runoff matchup from the November 3 primary is most likely to drive voter turnout above the 193,000 threshold in the December 12 general election?

8. How do the fundraising totals and get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operations of leading candidates Rick Edmonds and Chauna Banks compare as of the latest FEC filings?

9. What is the official timeline for the Louisiana Secretary of State to certify and publish final vote totals for the December 12, 2026 election?

10. How are the newly redrawn district lines expected to influence partisan enthusiasm and voter registration trends in the Baton Rouge area before the 2026 election?

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

Prediction Markets

Public Markets

Developers

Company

Short Answer

Who Wins and Why

Current Context

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome: Above 200K

📉 October 11, 2026: 87.0pp drop

📈 October 08, 2026: 12.0pp spike

📈 October 01, 2026: 54.0pp spike

Outcome: Above 193K

📉 October 05, 2026: 40.0pp drop

📉 September 30, 2026: 27.0pp drop

Contract Snapshot

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Market Discussion

Key Catalysts

Key Dates & Catalysts

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