Who will win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election
Short Answer
The model identifies a significant divergence in the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, with Iliana Yotova's probability at 42.9% according to the model versus 57.0% on the market, suggesting the market overestimates her likelihood of winning.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market demonstrates a strong and rapid upward trend for the "YES" contract. The price surged 20 percentage points in a short period, climbing from a low of 37.0% on April 15 to its current high of 57.0% by April 29. This steep, uninterrupted climb reflects a significant and swift shift in market sentiment. Traders have rapidly repriced the likelihood of a "YES" outcome, moving it from an underdog position to that of a clear favorite, implying a greater than 50% probability of success.
The cause for this significant price spike is not apparent from the provided context. The movement appears to be driven by trading dynamics rather than a specific external event. The total traded volume of 1,178 contracts suggests a reasonable level of market participation and conviction behind the price move. The initial price of 37.0% has acted as a firm support level from which the rally launched, while the current high of 57.0% now serves as the key resistance point. The chart suggests that buying pressure has been dominant, with little selling interest to slow the ascent.
- GERB candidate projected to win narrowly in a simulated runoff.
- GERB benefits from significant Vazrazhdane voter transfer in a runoff.
- WCC-DB appears further along in identifying a presidential candidate.
- Iliana Yotova garners significant "second choice" support among Radev voters.
- Vazrazhdane's anti-aid stance aligns with strong Bulgarian public sentiment.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iliana Yotova | 57.0% | 42.9% | Iliana Yotova garners significant "second choice" support from President Radev's sympathetic voters. |
| Nikolai Denkov | 20.0% | 17.4% | A WCC-DB candidate like Denkov narrowly loses in simulated runoffs with limited Vazrazhdane voter support. |
| Rosen Zhelyazkov | 15.0% | 14.1% | A GERB candidate like Zhelyazkov wins simulated runoffs with strong Vazrazhdane voter transfer. |
| Vasil Terziev | 8.6% | 8.2% | This candidate is among those considered for the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. |
| Blagomir Kotsev | 6.8% | 6.6% | This candidate is among those considered for the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
If Iliana Yotova officially wins the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election, as certified by the Central Election Commission, and either takes office or the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office, the market resolves to "Yes"; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opens on December 17, 2025, and closes upon official declaration of the winner or by November 15, 2027, with payout occurring 30 minutes after closing. Contested results are settled based on the final certified outcome by the relevant authority or highest court, and the market can remain open for up to two years from the original election date in cases of postponements or annulled results before the winner takes office.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iliana Yotova | $0.59 | $0.44 | 57% |
| Nikolai Denkov | $0.21 | $0.80 | 20% |
| Rosen Zhelyazkov | $0.16 | $0.90 | 15% |
| Vasil Terziev | $0.10 | $0.97 | 9% |
| Blagomir Kotsev | $0.07 | $0.99 | 7% |
| Krum Zarkov | $0.06 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Yanaki Stoilov | $0.05 | $1.00 | 4% |
| Kostadin Kostadinov | $0.07 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Nataliya Kiselova | $0.06 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Atanas Atanasov | $0.06 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score93Strong
Trade quality20% of score48High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 37% of the price to slippage.
Trust score84Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. Which Bulgarian Bloc Leads in Presidential Nominations?
| WCC-DB Contender | Andrey Gyurov (potential nomination viewed positively) [1] |
|---|---|
| Official Candidate Announcement | Neither GERB-SDS nor WCC-DB has officially announced a single presidential candidate [2] |
| Polling Shifts Post-Announcement | No available data on immediate polling shifts among base voters after an announcement [2] |
The We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) bloc appears further along in identifying a potential presidential candidate. Andrey Gyurov, a former Member of Parliament, has emerged as a leading contender for the WCC-DB presidential nomination, with his potential candidacy reportedly viewed positively by key figures within the coalition, suggesting early internal consensus [1]. In contrast, the available sources do not provide comparable information regarding specific presidential candidates or the consolidation process within the GERB-SDS bloc [3].
Neither bloc has officially announced a single presidential candidate for the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election. The provided sources do not contain information confirming that either GERB-SDS or WCC-DB has yet officially consolidated behind and announced a single candidate [2]. Therefore, it is not possible to definitively state which bloc will be the first to make such an official announcement.
No polling data exists on immediate candidate support shifts following an announcement. The available sources do not provide any specific facts, data points, or statistics regarding the immediate polling shift for a candidate among their coalition's base voters in the 30 days following an official announcement for either GERB-SDS or WCC-DB [2].
Sources (3)
- 1Andrey Gyurov Emerges as Leading PP-DB Presidential Candidate for the Upcoming Vote - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agencynovinite.com
- 22026 Bulgarian presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
- 3Bulgaria: GERB-SDS Set to Remain Leading Force Unless New Political Contender Emerges - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agencynovinite.com
6. What is Iliana Yotova's Support Among Radev-Sympathetic Voters?
| Yotova General First Choice | 10% (Gallup International Balkan, February 28, 2026 [1]) |
|---|---|
| Zarkov General First Choice | 3% (Gallup International Balkan, February 28, 2026 [1]) |
| Kostadinov General First Choice | 12% (Gallup International Balkan, February 28, 2026 [1]) |
Vice President Iliana Yotova shows strong potential as a 'second choice' candidate. According to a March 5, 2026, study by Alpha Research, Vice President Iliana Yotova has positioned herself as a strong 'second choice' among voters who consistently approve of term-limited President Rumen Radev, indicating significant early support in the context of upcoming presidential elections [2].
Specific 'second choice' numerical distributions remain unavailable in current polling data. Despite Yotova's strong positioning, detailed numerical distributions of 'second choice' preferences for her, Krum Zarkov, or Kostadin Kostadinov among Radev's consistent approvers are not explicitly provided in the available polling data [2]. While general polling from Gallup International Balkan on February 28, 2026, offered overall first-choice preferences for presidential candidates—listing Iliana Yotova at 10%, Krum Zarkov at 3%, and Kostadin Kostadinov at 12%—this data does not specify these figures as 'second choices' originating from President Radev's consistent supporters [1].
7. What is Bulgarian Public Opinion on Military Aid to Ukraine?
| EU arms funding opposition | 62% of Bulgarians [1] |
|---|---|
| Opposition to sending military aid | 84% of Bulgarians [2] |
| Vazrazhdane Plovdiv-grad mandates | 1 mandate [3] |
Bulgarian public sentiment overwhelmingly opposes providing military assistance to Ukraine. A Eurobarometer poll indicated that 62% of Bulgarians are against the EU financing arms for Ukraine [1]. This opposition is further underscored by the Bulgarian Prime Minister's assertion that 84% of Bulgarians do not support sending military aid [2]. Consequently, Bulgarians are the least supportive within the EU regarding military aid or other forms of assistance for Ukraine [4], with 94% advocating for a negotiated end to the conflict and many attributing blame to Western nations [5].
Vazrazhdane's anti-aid platform aligns with widespread public sentiment. This dominant public sentiment against military aid directly correlates with the nationalist Vazrazhdane party's platform, which has openly opposed such assistance. While specific polling data explicitly linking support for Kostadin Kostadinov in key electoral districts like Plovdiv, Varna, and Burgas with military aid sentiment is not available, Vazrazhdane has demonstrated an electoral presence in these areas, for example, securing one mandate in Plovdiv-grad [3]. This suggests that the party's anti-military aid position resonates with a segment of the local electorate in these districts that largely shares the national anti-aid stance.
Sources (5)
- 1Eurobarometer poll: 62% of Bulgarians oppose EU financing purchase and supply of arms to Ukraine – The Sofia Globesofiaglobe.com
- 2Bulgarian PM: 84% of Bulgarians do Not Want us to Send Military Aid to Ukraine - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agencynovinite.com
- 3Пловдив-град при 98% протоколи: Радев с 46.3%, Възраждане влиза с 1 мандатplovdiv24.bg
- 4Bulgarians are Last in EU in terms of Supporting Military Aid or any Other Help for Ukraine - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agencynovinite.com
- 594% of Bulgarians Want the War in Ukraine to End Through Negotiations, Most Blame the West - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agencynovinite.com
8. What are Public Trust Levels in Bulgaria's Political Institutions?
| Zhelyazkov Cabinet Trust | 22% [1] |
|---|---|
| Kristalina Georgieva Approval | 59% [2] |
| Political Institutions Trust Trend | General decline [3] |
Public trust in Bulgaria's political institutions is significantly declining amidst fatigue. A general downturn in confidence towards governing bodies and leading political parties has been observed [3]. This trend is exacerbated by voter fatigue amid persistent political tensions [4]. For instance, the Zhelyazkov Cabinet recorded only 22% trust at the start of its third month in office [1], reflecting a low and decreasing public confidence in the established political landscape [3].
Non-partisan public figures consistently achieve higher trust ratings than politicians. In stark contrast to the diminishing trust in political parties and government, several non-partisan individuals enjoy considerably greater public confidence. President Rumen Radev consistently holds the highest personal trust ratings among public figures [5]. Additionally, EU Commissioner Kristalina Georgieva stands out as Bulgaria's most popular politician, with a 59% approval rating [2]. These figures demonstrate significantly greater public confidence compared to the general political establishment, suggesting that individuals outside direct partisan politics tend to command more public trust [3].
Sources (5)
- 1site.bta Trust in Zhelyazkov Cabinet Down to 22% at Start of Its Third Month in Office, Shows Market Links Pollbta.bg
- 2Commissioner Georgieva Rises as Bulgaria's Most Popular Politician - Study - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agencynovinite.com
- 3Survey Shows Decline in Trust Towards Bulgaria’s Political Institutions - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agencynovinite.com
- 4Bulgarian Politics: GERB Retains Lead in July Poll, Voter Fatigue Grows Amid Political Tensions - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agencynovinite.com
- 5Measure: The government has a credit of trust, but the president is at the top of the rating ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - Bulgaria | ФАКТИ.БГfakti.bg
9. What are the projected outcomes of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential runoff?
| Projected Runoff Margin | 0.6% (GERB vs WCC-DB) [1] |
|---|---|
| GERB Candidate Projected Vote | 50.3% [1] |
| WCC-DB Candidate Projected Vote | 49.7% [1] |
A GERB versus WCC-DB runoff election projects the narrowest margin. A simulated second-round matchup for a potential 2026 Bulgarian presidential election between candidates from GERB and We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) is projected to be exceptionally close, with a margin of just 0.6% [1]. An Alpha Research poll conducted in October 2026 presented this specific projection, indicating the GERB nominee is anticipated to secure 50.3% of the vote, while the WCC-DB candidate would garner 49.7% [1].
Voter redistribution from non-advancing parties significantly impacts the outcome. The reallocation of support from parties whose candidates do not advance to the runoff plays a critical role in this close contest [1]. Specifically, 70% of Vazrazhdane voters are projected to support the GERB candidate, with 30% going to the WCC-DB candidate [1]. Supporters of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) also show a strong preference for GERB, with 90% gravitating to their candidate and 10% to WCC-DB [1]. In contrast, voters for the Socialist Party (BSP) are more evenly split, with 60% favoring the WCC-DB candidate and 40% supporting the GERB candidate [1].
