Who will win the next Argentine presidential election 2027
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Javier Milei to win the next Argentine presidential election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Based on the chart data, this market is characterized by a stable, sideways trading pattern with very low volatility. The price has been confined to an extremely narrow 3-point range, fluctuating between 63.0% and 66.0%. This indicates a market in equilibrium, with 63.0% acting as a clear support level and 66.0% serving as resistance. The current price of 64.0% sits near the bottom of this established range. There have been no significant price spikes or drops, and therefore, no specific market-moving events can be identified from the provided information.
The total trading volume of 377 contracts, spread across 119 data points, suggests very light trading activity. This low volume indicates a lack of strong market conviction or new information driving price discovery. The price movements within the narrow range have occurred on thin trading, meaning a small number of contracts are enough to shift the price. Overall, the market sentiment appears to be one of steady, moderate confidence in a "YES" outcome, as the price has consistently held well above 50%. However, the absence of an upward trend and the low liquidity suggest that traders are in a "wait-and-see" mode, likely anticipating future catalysts to form a stronger directional bias.
- LLA achieved a landslide win, gaining majorities in 2025 mid-terms.
- Argentina concluded 2025 with the lowest inflation in eight years.
- Successful IMF funding reviews extend Argentina's program through 2029.
- Persistent social and labor opposition fueled general strikes against policies.
- The center-right Juntos por el Cambio formally dissolved, weakening the bloc.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | 64.0% | 67.8% | His party's landslide 2025 mid-term win and strong economic performance position them favorably for 2027. |
| Horacio Rodríguez Larreta | 7.9% | 6.8% | He remains a notable figure in the broader Argentine political landscape. |
| Eduardo de Pedro | 8.0% | 6.9% | The Peronist/Kirchnerist bloc achieved formal unification, impacting their political standing. |
| Patricia Bullrich | 10.0% | 8.6% | She maintains a visible presence within the Argentine political spectrum. |
| Sergio Massa | 13.0% | 10.0% | The Peronist/Kirchnerist bloc achieved formal unification, impacting their political standing. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the next Argentine presidential election by the National Electoral Chamber or relevant electoral authority, who is subsequently sworn in or whose inauguration date passes; otherwise, it resolves to "No." This resolution applies even if the winner dies or is incapacitated after the election but before taking office, and contested results are based on the final certified outcome. The market opened on July 15, 2025, and closes either when the outcome occurs or by October 30, 2028, at 10:00 AM EDT, with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing. If the election is postponed, the contract remains open for a maximum of two years, and employees of Source Agencies are prohibited from trading.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Javier Milei | $0.66 | $0.36 | 64% |
| Sergio Massa | $0.13 | $0.90 | 13% |
| Patricia Bullrich | $0.10 | $0.97 | 10% |
| Eduardo de Pedro | $0.08 | $0.99 | 8% |
| Horacio Rodríguez Larreta | $0.08 | $0.98 | 8% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score86Strong
Resolution quality is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score56Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score80Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What Was Argentina's Inflation and Dollar Blue in 2025?
| 2025 Interannual Inflation | 31.5% [1] |
|---|---|
| December 2025 Monthly Inflation | 2.8% [2] |
| Lowest Annual Inflation | In eight years [1] |
Argentina concluded 2025 with significantly reduced annual inflation. The interannual inflation rate, as reported by INDEC, reached 31.5% [1]. This figure represents a significant deceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) trajectory and is the lowest annual inflation Argentina has experienced in eight years [1]. The monthly inflation rate for December 2025 was specifically recorded at 2.8%, indicating a strong shift towards price stabilization [2].
Sustained stabilization is crucial for Milei's reelection prospects. Historical data regarding the parallel 'dollar blue' exchange rate for 2025 is accessible [3]. The sustained stabilization of both the inflation rate and the 'dollar blue' rate would serve as a critical indicator for the viability of Javier Milei's potential reelection [3].
6. How are Argentine Political Blocs Realigning for 2025 Elections?
| Peronist/Kirchnerist Bloc Status | Formally unified as "Fuerza Patria" [1] |
|---|---|
| Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) Status | Formally dissolved [2] |
| New Center-Right Alliance | "Somos Buenos Aires" formed by UCR, CC, GEN [2] |
The Peronist/Kirchnerist bloc has formally unified for the 2025 elections. This bloc, featuring figures like Sergio Massa and Eduardo "Wado" de Pedro, plans to operate as a united front, frequently adopting the name "Fuerza Patria" across the majority of Argentina's provinces [1]. This sustained unity within the Peronist movement aligns with consistent pre-election analyses [3].
Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) has formally dissolved ahead of the 2025 elections. A key factor in this dissolution was the absorption of a significant portion of the PRO party, a crucial JxC component, by President Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) [3]. Following this fragmentation, other former JxC members, including the Radical Civic Union (UCR), the Civic Coalition (CC), and the GEN party, have established a new alliance named "Somos Buenos Aires" [2].
Negotiations are ongoing for a potential PRO and UCR reunion. Despite the formal end of JxC, discussions persist between the PRO and the UCR regarding a potential reunification for the 2025 elections. These negotiations are particularly focused on the province of Buenos Aires, with the PRO actively seeking the UCR's participation in such an agreement [4].
Sources (4)
- 1El peronismo sostuvo la unidad y acordó presentarse como "Fuerza Patria" en la mayoría de las provinciaselagora.digital
- 2El peronismo va unido y se rompió finalmente JxC: los radicales, la CC, el GEN y otros formaron «Somos Buenos Aires»treslineas.com.ar
- 3Elecciones 2025: el peronismo va unido, Milei absorbió al PRO y el radicalismo quedó dividido - Noticias de Necocheanden.com.ar
- 4La UCR y el PRO negocian volver a juntarse: le sacarían el tercer lugar en Diputados a los gobernadoresclarin.com
7. What Are the Impacts of CGT General Strikes Against Milei?
| First General Strike Date | January 24, 2024 [1] |
|---|---|
| Second General Strike Call | April 10, 2025 [2] |
| Estimated Economic Loss | $575 million [3] |
The General Confederation of Labour (CGT) has initiated significant strikes against Milei's reforms. The General Confederation of Labour (CGT) has organized substantial general strikes and major protests in direct opposition to President Javier Milei's austerity and labor reform measures. The first national general strike, called by the CGT, occurred on January 24, 2024 [1]. This event witnessed tens of thousands of participants marching to Congress, causing considerable disruption across Argentina, notably impacting public transport, bank services, and state offices [4]. Specific disruptions included stoppages of buses, trains, subways, and absences among port workers [4].
Organized labor actions have incurred a substantial economic impact. These widespread organized labor actions have imposed a significant economic cost on the country. The Argentine government estimated an economic loss of $575 million for Argentines as a result of a strike called by the CGT, attributed to its impact on national activity [3]. This underscores the profound ability of organized labor to disrupt the nation's economy through such widespread protests. Furthermore, the CGT has scheduled a second general strike for April 10, 2025 [2].
Sources (4)
- 1General strike begins: Protest against Milei's labour reforms underway | Buenos Aires Timesbatimes.com.ar
- 2Argentina unions to strike against Milei on April 10 | Reutersreuters.com
- 3The government estimates a loss of 575 million dollars for Argentines due to the strike called by the CGT | La Derecha Diario en Inglésderechadiario.com.ar
- 4Argentina strike poses major test to Milei’s shock economic agendacnbc.com
8. What is the status of Argentina's IMF funding reviews?
| IMF Extended Arrangement Approval | April 12, 2025, US$20 billion (International Monetary Fund) [1] |
|---|---|
| First Review Completion Date | July 31, 2025 (IMF Executive Board) [2] |
| Second Review Approval & Disbursement | April 15, 2026, US$1 billion (IMF Executive Board) [3] |
Argentina secured a substantial IMF funding program extending through 2029. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board approved a 48-month Extended Arrangement for Argentina on April 12, 2025, valued at US$20 billion [1]. This program established the framework for subsequent quarterly reviews and disbursements. Argentina has successfully passed its initial reviews and continues to maintain access to this funding, which is scheduled to run through April 2029, well beyond the 2026 timeframe.
Argentina successfully completed its first two quarterly IMF reviews. The IMF Executive Board concluded the first review of the Extended Arrangement on July 31, 2025 [2]. Subsequently, in April 2026, the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the second review of Argentina's program [4]. This was followed by the Executive Board's approval on April 15, 2026, which unlocked a US$1 billion disbursement to Argentina [3]. The successful completion of these reviews within the 2025-2026 period confirms Argentina's adherence to the necessary conditions for continued access to the IMF funding program as planned.
Sources (4)
- 1IMF Executive Board Approves 48-month US$20 billion Extended Arrangement for Argentinaimf.org
- 2IMF Executive Board Completes First Review of the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility for Argentinaimf.org
- 3IMF Greenlights Argentina's Second Review — Rio Timesriotimesonline.com
- 4IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on the Second Review under Argentina's Extended Fund Facility Arrangementimf.org
9. What Were La Libertad Avanza's Congressional Gains in 2025?
| Chamber of Deputies Seats Gained | 69 seats [1] |
|---|---|
| Senate Seats Gained | 22 seats [1] |
| LLA Total Chamber of Deputies Seats | 107 seats [1] |
Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party significantly increased its congressional presence in 2025. In the 2025 mid-term elections, LLA gained 69 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, expanding its representation from 38 to 107 deputies [1]. In the Senate, the party secured an additional 22 seats, growing from 7 to 29 senators [1]. This resulted in a total net gain of 91 seats for LLA across both chambers.
LLA and allies secured legislative majorities in both congressional chambers. Following these elections, La Libertad Avanza emerged as the largest bloc in the Chamber of Deputies with 107 seats [1]. Although this falls short of an absolute majority (129 seats) for LLA alone, the party and its key allies are projected to collectively achieve a simple majority in the Lower House [1]. In the Senate, LLA now holds 29 out of 72 seats, which is below the 37 needed for a simple majority [1]. However, with the support of its traditional allies, La Libertad Avanza is expected to form a working majority in the Upper House, facilitating legislative progress [1].
Strengthened legislative power is crucial for Milei's remaining term and 2027 prospects. These election results solidify President Javier Milei's legislative power, providing his administration with greater capacity to advance its agenda. This enhanced position in both chambers, particularly through forming majorities with allied parties, is considered a crucial determinant for the success of his remaining two years in office and a significant indicator for the outcome of the 2027 presidential election [1].
