Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing for Lai Ching-te being out as President of Taiwan before January 1, 2028 (17.3% model vs 29.0% market), attributing its lower probability to the opposition's insufficient legislative seats for a successful impeachment.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has exhibited a sideways trend with very low volatility, trading within a narrow range between a 1.0% and 5.7% probability. The price began at 5.0%, briefly touched a low of 1.0%, and is currently trading back at 5.0%. This indicates that the market's perceived probability of Lai Ching-te's early exit has remained consistently low since trading began. The price history establishes a clear support level at 1.0% and a resistance level around 5.7%, with the price spending most of its time near the upper end of this range.
Despite the report that an impeachment motion passed an initial legislative stage on December 26, 2025, there has been no corresponding significant or sustained spike in the market price. The price has remained stable and low, suggesting that traders have not interpreted this development as substantially increasing the likelihood of Lai's removal from office. The total traded volume is extremely low, at only 5 contracts. This minimal activity suggests a lack of market participation and very low conviction from traders. The price fluctuations within the range are likely attributable to a few small trades in an illiquid market rather than a broad reaction to news.
Overall, the chart indicates a strong market sentiment that Lai Ching-te is highly unlikely to leave the presidency before the end of his term. The consistent low price, which has never exceeded 5.7%, reflects a consensus that an early exit is a remote possibility. The lack of trading volume further underscores that there is little speculative interest or belief in the "Yes" outcome, with the market largely discounting political challenges like the impeachment motion as unlikely to succeed.
  • Opposition lacks the required supermajority for a 2026 impeachment vote.
  • Taiwan's Legislative Yuan currently operates without a single party majority.
  • Significant political or economic catalysts may alter the opposition's strategy.
  • The current impeachment effort faces hurdles common to previous presidential challenges.
  • Public approval ratings have shown significant fluctuations since May 2024 inauguration.
  • Opposition's impeachment grounds center on constitutional and legislative disputes.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before January 1, 2027 3.2% 2.9% The opposition lacks sufficient legislative seats (62) for the 76 votes needed to pass the impeachment motion.
Before July 1, 2027 26.0% 15.4% The opposition lacks sufficient legislative seats (62) for the 76 votes needed to pass the impeachment motion.
Before January 1, 2028 29.0% 17.3% The opposition lacks sufficient legislative seats (62) for the 76 votes needed to pass the impeachment motion.

Current Context

Lai Ching-te began his four-year presidential term on May 20, 2024, becoming Taiwan's first physician-president and marking the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) third consecutive term in office [1][2][3]. His current presidential term is set to conclude with the next election scheduled for 2028 [2][3].
An impeachment motion against President Lai is advancing in the legislature. The motion passed its initial stage on December 26, 2025, with a vote of 60 to 51 [4][5][6]. A final vote on May 19, 2026, will require 76 out of 113 votes for the impeachment to proceed to trial, a threshold that may be challenging for the opposition parties to meet, as they collectively hold approximately 60 seats [7][8].
Prediction markets indicate Lai Ching-te will likely remain president. Polymarket odds, as of recent updates, show an 87.5% probability that President Lai will retain his position through December 31, 2026 [9][10]. There is no current evidence suggesting his resignation, significant health issues, or other forms of removal from office, and he remains actively involved in governance, as demonstrated by his participation in various events in March 2026 [9].
Sources (10)
  1. 1President Lai-President & vice president｜Office of the President Republic of China(Taiwan)english.president.gov.tw
  2. 2Presidency of Lai Ching-teen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Lai Ching-teen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Taiwan Parliament Impeachment Targets Lai Ching-tetelesurenglish.net
  5. 5Update: Taiwan lawmakers vote to pass motion to impeach island's leader Lai Ching-tetaiwansnews.net
  6. 6Taiwan legislature passes motion to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-teheidoh.com
  7. 7Legislature to hold roll-call vote on Lai impeachment - Taipei Timestaipeitimes.com
  8. 8Lai Ching-te's impeachment case will be put to a vote on May 19th to request a trial; opposition parties may struggle to pass the threshold. - VOCO News | Global Chinese Instant News Networknews.vocofm.com
  9. 9Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  10. 10Lai Ching-te Out as Taiwan President by End of 2026?lines.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 May 08, 2026: 8.0pp drop

Price decreased from 34.0% to 26.0%

Outcome: Before July 1, 2027

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point price drop on May 08, 2026, was likely the market's reassessment of the viability of the impending impeachment motion against President William Lai. News released on April 25, 2026, confirmed a roll-call vote on an impeachment motion was scheduled for May 19, 2026, but also emphasized the high thresholds required for presidential removal, including two-thirds approval at the Constitutional Court stage [1]. This context likely tempered initial expectations, decreasing the perceived probability of Lai Ching-te being out as President before July 1, 2027. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant factor in the provided information.

📈 May 07, 2026: 12.0pp spike

Price increased from 22.0% to 34.0%

Outcome: Before July 1, 2027

What happened: The 12.0 percentage point spike in the "Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan?" prediction market on May 07, 2026, was primarily driven by the upcoming impeachment vote scheduled for May 19, 2026 [1]. News of the legislature preparing for a roll-call vote on Lai's impeachment had been reported in late April 2026 [1], creating heightened anticipation as the date approached [2]. Despite reports that opposition parties might struggle to meet the required 76 votes [2], the proximity of such a significant political event likely increased the perceived risk in the market. Social media activity was not identifiable as a primary driver or contributing accelerant given the provided information.
Sources (2)
  1. 1Legislature to hold roll-call vote on Lai impeachment - Taipei Timestaipeitimes.com
  2. 2Lai Ching-te's impeachment case will be put to a vote on May 19th to request a trial; opposition parties may struggle to pass the threshold. - VOCO News | Global Chinese Instant News Networknews.vocofm.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves "Yes" if Lai Ching-te leaves office or announces his departure (to occur within the next year) before July 1, 2027, confirmed by listed news sources. If these conditions are not met by July 1, 2027, the market resolves "No." In the event of his death, the market resolves based on the last traded price prior to death, unless the Exchange determines that price is unavailable, inconsistent, or not representative of a fair settlement, in which case a fair value will be determined by the Exchange or Outcome Review Committee.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before January 1, 2027 $0.12 $0.98 3%
Before July 1, 2027 $0.34 $0.74 26%
Before January 1, 2028 $0.33 $0.76 29%

Market Discussion

Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as President on May 20, 2024, with his term expected to end in 2028 [1][2]. An impeachment motion against him passed an initial 60-51 vote on December 26, 2025, and a final vote is scheduled for May 19, 2026, requiring 76+ votes to proceed to the Constitutional Court [3][4][5]. However, with the opposition holding approximately 60 seats in the legislature, they may struggle to achieve the supermajority needed, and prediction markets currently suggest a low probability (7.5%-13.5%) of Lai being out by the end of 2026 [5][6][7][8][9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1Presidency of Lai Ching-teen.wikipedia.org
  2. 22024 Taiwanese presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Legislature passes motion to start impeachment proceedings against Lai - Focus Taiwanfocustaiwan.tw
  4. 4Legislature to hold roll-call vote on Lai impeachment - Taipei Timestaipeitimes.com
  5. 5Lai Ching-te's impeachment case will be put to a vote on May 19th to request a trial; opposition parties may struggle to pass the threshold. - VOCO News | Global Chinese Instant News Networknews.vocofm.com
  6. 6Taiwan legislature passes motion to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-teheidoh.com
  7. 7Taiwan opposition takes aim at president in long-shot impeachment | Taiwan Politics | Politics | Taiwan Current Newstcn.tw
  8. 8Lai Ching-te Out as Taiwan President by End of 2026?lines.com
  9. 9Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026? Predicti... | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
  10. 10Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by De… 7.5% Odds | Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 71 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score43High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score71Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity80
Structural prior — no screens applyGood
Info fairness80
Structural prior — no screens applyGood
Trade quality43
Order book is critically thinHigh Risk
Market integrity
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Trade quality
43High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

Move quality avg 86 across 1 legs

$100 order: 27.1c slippage (~97% of a 27.9c contract)

$1,000 order: 53.1c slippage (~190% of a 27.9c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before January 1, 2028–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Before July 1, 2027–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 7d

No trades in the last 7d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Before January 1, 2027–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality86Rule clarity40
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
86 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 2d

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. What is the current composition of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan, and how does the opposition's seat count compare to the supermajority required for the May 2026 impeachment vote?

Total Legislative Yuan Members113 [1][2]
Votes Required for Impeachment76 [3][4]
Combined Opposition Seats62 [5][3][4]
Taiwan's Legislative Yuan currently lacks a single party majority. The 11th Legislative Yuan, which began on February 1, 2024, is composed of 113 members [1][2]. The Kuomintang (KMT) holds 52 seats, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has 51 seats, and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) accounts for 8 seats [1][6][7][8]. Additionally, two independent members caucus with the KMT, bringing their aligned caucus to a total of 54 seats [1][2]. With an absolute majority requiring 57 seats, no single party or aligned caucus presently holds control of the legislature [6][8].
Impeachment requires a supermajority, which the opposition currently lacks. To pass an impeachment motion against the President or Vice President in the Legislative Yuan, a supermajority of two-thirds of all members is mandated, necessitating 76 votes out of 113 [3][4][9][10][11][12][13][14]. The combined opposition, comprising the KMT, TPP, and the two independents, possesses 62 seats, which is fewer than the required 76 votes [5][3][4]. Impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te have been initiated, with a roll-call vote slated for May 19, 2026 [9][10][11][4][14]. However, political observers generally view this impeachment as a "long-shot" and "unlikely to succeed" due to the opposition's inability to secure the necessary supermajority [5][3][4]. Furthermore, even if it were to pass the legislature, it would likely be unsuccessful in the Constitutional Court, as it would require agreement from at least two-thirds of its justices, all of whom were appointed by the preceding DPP president [4].
Sources (14)
  1. 1wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3tcn.tw
  4. 4channelnewsasia.com
  5. 5aljazeera.com
  6. 6globaltaiwan.org
  7. 7csis.orginterpret.csis.org
  8. 8wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9focustaiwan.tw
  10. 10taipeitimes.com
  11. 11aa.com.tr
  12. 12judicial.gov.twcons.judicial.gov.tw
  13. 13president.gov.twenglish.president.gov.tw
  14. 14yenisafak.comen.yenisafak.com

7. What political or economic catalysts before May 2026 could realistically alter the KMT-TPP coalition's calculus on the impeachment of President Lai?

KMT-TPP Legislative Seats62 of 113 [1][2][3]
Impeachment Quorum Required76 seats [1][2][3]
Prediction Market Odds (Lai out by Dec 31, 2026)7-12.5% YES (as of April-May 2026) [4][5][6][7]
The KMT-TPP coalition currently lacks sufficient votes to impeach President Lai. The coalition holds 62 of the 113 legislative seats, falling short of the 76 votes required for an impeachment quorum [1][2][3]. The impeachment vote, scheduled for May 19, 2026, is widely perceived as unlikely to succeed and has been described as symbolic or a farce due to persistent procedural hurdles [8][9][10]. Despite these challenges, the coalition maintains unity in its push for impeachment [9][3].
No specific catalysts identified to alter the impeachment calculus before May 2026. The provided research does not detail any particular political or economic catalysts that could realistically change the KMT-TPP coalition's current stance or capabilities regarding impeachment before the May 2026 timeframe [9][3][8][10]. While the Constitutional Court has resumed operations, legislative passage remains a prerequisite for any impeachment proceedings to advance [11][12]. Furthermore, prediction market odds reflect the perceived unlikelihood of a successful impeachment, with President Lai being 'out by Dec 31, 2026' having low odds, standing at 7-12.5% YES as of April-May 2026, considering the current parliamentary arithmetic [4][5][6][7].
Sources (12)
  1. 111th Legislative Yuanen.wikipedia.org
  2. 22024 Taiwanese legislative electionen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3KMT, TPP criticize Lai as hearings continue - Taipei Timestaipeitimes.com
  4. 4Lai Ching-te Out as Taiwan President by End of 2026?lines.com
  5. 5Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by De… 7.5% Odds | Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
  7. 7Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?perplexity.ai
  8. 8Taiwan legislature to vote May 19 on unlikely Lai impeachmenttaiwannews.com.tw
  9. 9China & Taiwan Update, April 24, 2026 | AEIaei.org
  10. 10EDITORIAL: Lai impeachment vote is a farce - Taipei Timestaipeitimes.com
  11. 11Taiwan opposition KMT, TPP announce move to impeach President Laiasiapacificnews.net
  12. 12Taiwan Constitutional Court resumes operation following constitutive quorum controversies - JURIST - Newsjurist.org

8. How does the current impeachment effort against Lai Ching-te compare to previous major political challenges faced by Taiwanese presidents?

Required Majority for RemovalTwo-thirds parliamentary majority (148 legislators) [1][2][3]
Lai Impeachment Vote ScheduledMay 19, 2026 [1][4][5]
Polymarket Probability of Removal13% by December 31, 2026 [6][2]
Lai Ching-te's impeachment faces significant hurdles similar to past challenges. The ongoing impeachment effort against President Lai Ching-te closely mirrors previous major political challenges, particularly the 2006 recall attempt against Chen Shui-bian [1][2][3]. Both instances share a formidable structural obstacle: the constitutional requirement for a two-thirds parliamentary majority to remove a president, rendering such efforts highly improbable [4][2][3].
Lai's current impeachment is widely anticipated to fail. Initiated in December 2025, with hearings in January 2026, a definitive vote is scheduled for May 19, 2026 [1][4][5]. This effort is widely anticipated to fail because the opposition currently lacks the necessary two-thirds parliamentary majority required to unseat him [4][2]. The low perceived success rate is further reflected in a Polymarket contract, 'Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026?', which shows approximately a 13% 'Yes' probability, emphasizing the difficulty of reaching the required vote threshold [6][2].
Historical precedent confirms the formidable challenge of achieving a two-thirds majority. Chen Shui-bian's 2006 recall bid serves as a clear example of this difficulty [3]. During that attempt, only 119 out of 221 legislators voted for his removal, falling significantly short of the 148 votes needed to reach the two-thirds threshold [3]. Despite facing serious corruption allegations and intense political pressure, Chen Shui-bian ultimately survived the recall bid, highlighting the extremely demanding nature of the impeachment vote requirement [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Taiwan legislature passes motion to initiate impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-teheidoh.com
  2. 2CNA Explains: The impeachment bid against Taiwan’s Lai – and why it’s unlikely to succeed - CNAchannelnewsasia.com
  3. 3Taiwan Leader Survives Bid to Recall Himwashingtonpost.com
  4. 4Experts Testify in Lai Impeachment Hearing as Final Vote Date Set - TaiwanPlustaiwanplus.com
  5. 5Presidential impeachment hearings begin as parties clash over constitutionality - Focus Taiwanfocustaiwan.tw
  6. 6Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2... | Polymarketpolymarket.com

9. What do public approval rating trends from major Taiwanese pollsters since May 2024 indicate about Lai Ching-te's political capital ahead of the 2026 vote?

Initial Approval Rating40-50% (May 2024) [1]
Record Low Approval31% (August 2025 Formosa) [2]
Odds of Early Departure13% (May 2026 Prediction Markets) [3][4]
President Lai Ching-te experienced significant approval rating fluctuations post-inauguration. His public approval initially stood between 40-50% in May 2024 [1]. By November 2024, his approval had reached 42.8% against 43% disapproval, marking his first "death cross" [5]. Throughout 2025, while some reports indicated stable positive sentiment, such as 45.7% approval in May 2025 by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF) [6] and a 57.3% rebound reported by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) [7], other reports showed significant drops, including a record low of 31% approval in August 2025 due to issues like recalls and tariffs [2].
Lai Ching-te's approval ratings showed signs of recovery by early 2026. Towards the end of 2025, TPOF reported an approval rating of 43.4% versus 48.6% disapproval in December 2025, noting a narrowing gap [8]. Further recovery was indicated by a Formosa report covering December 2025 and February 2026, which showed 46% approval against 48% disapproval [9]. Despite these signs of improvement, disapproval percentages remained close to or slightly above approval ratings during these periods.
Despite rating shifts, Lai Ching-te's political capital remains stable for his tenure. Impeachment motions against him have consistently failed, and market predictions suggest low odds of their future success [4][10][11]. As of May 2026, prediction markets estimated only a 13% chance of Lai Ching-te being out of office by the end of 2026, with Lines indicating 13.5% [3][4].
Sources (11)
  1. 1[PDF] Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation - May 2024 Public Opinion Polltpof.org
  2. 2President Lai Ching-te’s approval rating drops to record 31%│TVBS新聞網news.tvbs.com.tw
  3. 3Lai Ching-te Out as Taiwan President by End of 2026?lines.com
  4. 4Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5President Lai's Approval Rating Plummets with a ＂Death Cross＂： Expert Reveals Five Critical Factors﹐Trouble from Within - 長風基金會fairwindsfoundation.org
  6. 6https://www.tpof.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/20250520-TPOF-May-2025-Public-Opinion-Poll-–-English-Excerpt.pdftpof.org
  7. 7Lai’s approval rebounds to 57% ahead of first year, KMT plans protest-News-Radio Taiwan Internationalen.rti.org.tw
  8. 8President Lai’s approval rating narrows gap in new poll│TVBS新聞網news.tvbs.com.tw
  9. 9Lai's Approval Ratings Show Signs of Recovery as Opposition Loses Public Support | Yi Junyao | Taiwan - The Storm Mediaworld.storm.mg
  10. 10Lai Ching-te impeached before 2026? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  11. 11Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com

10. What are the specific allegations and legal arguments put forth by the opposition as the formal grounds for impeaching President Lai Ching-te?

Opposition seats in legislature62 seats (out of 113) [1][2][3][4][5]
Votes required for impeachment76 votes (two-thirds majority) [1][2][3][4][5]
Final impeachment vote scheduledMay 19, 2026 [6][3][5]
The opposition's impeachment grounds center on constitutional and legislative disputes. The primary formal grounds for impeaching President Lai Ching-te stem from a significant dispute over the Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures [6][2][3][4][5]. The opposition's legal argument asserts that the executive branch's refusal to implement legislation duly passed by the legislature constitutes a violation of the constitution and the established legislative process [7][2][3][4], which they interpret as an evasion of oversight [8][5]. Further allegations include President Lai "selling out the island's interests," disregarding Taiwan's economy and livelihoods, and focusing instead on a "resist China, protect Taiwan" narrative [9][10]. They also cited an alleged attempt to eliminate political opponents through a "Mass Recall campaign" targeting KMT legislators in June 2025, which ultimately failed [10]. These actions, they contend, "hollow out" democratic norms [6][1][7][2][3][4][5] and set a dangerous precedent for Taiwan's democracy [6][1], with the impeachment proceedings intended to highlight the Legislature's constitutional role [3].
The impeachment effort faces historical hurdles and symbolic intent. This impeachment bid is considered unprecedented in Taiwan's constitutional history [9][6][2][3][4][5]. The opposition currently holds 62 seats in the 113-seat legislature, falling short of the two-thirds majority (76 votes) required to pass an impeachment motion [1][2][3][4][5]. Public hearings have been held, and a final vote is scheduled for May 19, 2026 [6][3][5]. Many observers view this impeachment effort as largely symbolic, aimed at registering protest, criticizing the president, and rallying core supporters, rather than achieving his removal from office [7][2][5].
Sources (10)
  1. 1scmp.com
  2. 2channelnewsasia.com
  3. 3focustaiwan.tw
  4. 4chinadaily.com.cn
  5. 5ecct.com.tweuroview.ecct.com.tw
  6. 6tcn.tw
  7. 7aljazeera.com
  8. 8aa.com.tr
  9. 9news.cnenglish.news.cn
  10. 10chinamil.com.cneng.chinamil.com.cn

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as President on May 20, 2024, and his term is set to conclude on May 20, 2028 [1][2][3]. Despite leading a minority government, opposition impeachment efforts have failed due to the lack of a 2/3 majority [4]. Polymarket indicates a 7.5-11% 'Yes' probability for Lai Ching-te being 'out by Dec 31, 2026', based on a volume of $25K+ [4][5][6].
Upcoming elections are pivotal, with local elections in Nov 2026 expected to be foundational for the 2028 presidential race [7][8][9][10]. The 2028 presidential election is expected in Jan 2028, mirroring the Jan 13, 2024 election [7][8][9]. The KMT and TPP opposition parties are reportedly cooperating for the 2026 local elections, eyeing a challenge to the DPP in 2028 [10][11][12].
China is closely monitoring the 2028 elections, reportedly preferring the KMT for cross-strait reconciliation over invasion [7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: July 01, 2026
  • Closes: January 01, 2028
Sources (12)
  1. 1Presidency of Lai Ching-teen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Lai Ching-teen.wikipedia.org
  3. 32028 Taiwanese presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  5. 5Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by De… 7.5% Odds | Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan in 2026? Predicti... | Polymarketbase.polymarket.com
  7. 7How the 2028 Taiwanese Elections Could Determine Beijing’s Calculus in the Taiwan Strait | Atlas Institute for International Affairsatlasinstitute.org
  8. 8Taiwan Presidential Election 2028 Date: What Is Known So Far (2026) | PoliticaHubpoliticahub.com
  9. 92024 Taiwanese presidential electionen.wikipedia.org
  10. 10Taiwan’s opposition parties join forces for local elections with eye on 2028 race | South China Morning Postscmp.com
  11. 11Donovan’s Deep Dives: The KMT’s 2028 presidential calculus is changingtaipeitimes.com
  12. 12KMT, TPP to collaborate for presidential election - Taipei Timestaipeitimes.com