Who will win the next Zambian National Assembly election?

The United Party for National Development (UPND) is strategizing to capitalize on structural advantages and economic achievements within the 70 newly established constituencies. The party aims to consolidate its base in regions where most of these new areas are located, leveraging the increased Constituency Development Fund (CDF) to visibly demonstrate its impact at the grassroots level ^[3][4][5]. The UPND also plans a centralized approach for candidate adoption, employing internal consultations to strategically position new candidates ^[6]. This strategy may also involve encouraging smaller or youth-led parties to run independently, with the intention of absorbing their proportional representation votes and aligning after the election ^[7]. Furthermore, the UPND intends to emphasize its economic accomplishments, such as debt restructuring and reduced inflation, to appeal to voters in both urban and rural areas ^[3][2].

Conversely, the Patriotic Front (PF) is focusing its strategy on discrediting the UPND's governance and energizing its own supporters. The PF campaign accuses the current administration of "five years of lies, mismanagement of the economy, rampant corruption, broken promises, and abuse of human rights" ^[8][3][2]. This narrative is designed to delegitimize any potential gains made by the UPND in the new constituencies ^[9][4][5]. The PF also plans intensive ground mobilization efforts in both new and existing constituencies to ensure high voter turnout, recognizing that party unity is a critical factor for successfully contesting these electoral areas ^{[3][10][8][1][11]}.

Despite the PF's counter-campaign, UPND currently holds a lead in public opinion polls. Incumbent President Hichilema and the UPND are ahead, with Hichilema securing 60% support compared to 35% for the combined opposition in a recent survey ^[1][2]. However, a significant portion of the electorate, specifically 32%, remains undecided or unwilling to disclose their voting intentions. This indicates a potential for shifts in voter sentiment as the election approaches ^[1][2].

Persistent internal disputes severely hinder the Patriotic Front's electoral viability ^[1]. The Patriotic Front (PF) is significantly hampered by persistent internal leadership disputes, which have led to legal paralysis and cast doubt on its ability to effectively field candidates or maintain its legal standing for the 2026 general election (1)(2)(3)(4) ^[2]. This intense factional infighting has prompted some observers to suggest a potential electoral collapse for the party, raising concerns that it may become politically irrelevant before the 2026 elections (1)(2)(3)(4) ^[3]. The available research, however, does not explicitly detail the specific impact a final resolution of these disputes would have on the PF's electoral competitiveness against the United Party for National Development (UPND) (1)(2)(3)(4) ^[4]. The incumbent UPND faces challenges despite opposition fragmentation ^[5]. Despite the struggles within the Patriotic Front, the incumbent United Party for National Development (UPND) confronts significant challenges, including economic hardship, rising costs of living, and accusations of democratic backsliding, which critics argue could jeopardize its re-election bid in 2026 (5)(6) ^[6]. To counter the governing UPND, the PF has joined the Tonse Alliance, which has designated Brian Mundubile as its presidential candidate for the 2026 election (6) ^[1]. Nevertheless, the opposition bloc generally remains fragmented compared to the incumbent's consolidated position (6) ^[2].

UPND shows strong local incumbency advantage in by-elections. Recent by-election results from 2025 indicate robust local performance for the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) as the 2026 general election approaches. The party secured significant victories, including 445 votes in Ntanda Ward (Mpongwe) compared to 64 for the Socialist Party, and 887 votes in Mang’unza Ward (Choma) against 64 for the runner-up. These wins are interpreted as a clear indication of the party's strength at the local level ^[1][2].

Negative economic sentiment contrasts with local election successes. This local political success, however, is set against a backdrop of strongly negative economic sentiment reported across Zambia during 2024-2025. Afrobarometer data reveals that a substantial 66% of Zambians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, representing a 20-point increase since 2022. Furthermore, 73% describe the current economic condition as “fairly bad” or “very bad,” with only 36% of the population anticipating economic improvement in the coming year ^[3].

Economic woes create significant political risk for the incumbent. The challenging economic environment, characterized by persistent inflation exceeding 15% for several months and a severe 2024 drought that destroyed 70% of the harvest, is directly linked to increased political risk for the incumbent government. Experts suggest that the upcoming 2026 election could function as a referendum on the administration's performance, potentially diminishing the 'change' dividend the ruling party previously enjoyed amid growing cost-of-living pressures ^[4][5].

Zambia's 2026 elections prompt ongoing voter intention research. The next general elections, which will include the election of both the President and members of the National Assembly, are scheduled for August 13, 2026 ^[1]. In preparation for these elections, the Zambia Election Research Network (ZERN) is noted for actively conducting research on public perceptions and voter intentions ^[2].

Limited data exists on reputable commercial polls in Zambia. Despite ZERN's ongoing work, there is a recognized limitation in systematically available data regarding the historical accuracy of publicly released polling information in Zambia ^[3]. While organizations like the Zambian Election Panel Survey (ZEPS) were significant for studying the 2021 election, ZEPS is primarily an academic research project rather than a commercial polling entity ^[3]. The research indicates a lack of specific information on other reputable commercial polling organizations conducting national voter intention surveys for the 2026 election, as well as an absence of comprehensive historical accuracy data for polling within the country ^[3].

Economic policies and legislative actions significantly influence voter sentiment. The UPND government's economic policies and actions in late 2025 and early 2026 are crucial in shaping voter perception. While the government emphasizes improved GDP growth and successful debt restructuring under an IMF program, critics argue that these policies have caused substantial hardship for citizens ^[1][7][8][2]. This has led to widespread discontent among voters, marked by rising costs of living, persistent inflation, and inconsistent electricity supply ^[3][4][5][6]. Furthermore, there are allegations that the government is intentionally delaying more severe structural reforms until after the August 2026 election, a factor that could further impact public perception ^[1][7][8][2].

A constitutional amendment has reshaped the political landscape. A major legislative action in late 2025 involved a constitutional amendment that increased the National Assembly from 167 to 280 seats and introduced 40 proportional representation seats specifically for women, youth, and persons with disabilities ^[1][2]. This development takes place amidst growing political tensions, documented increases in electoral code violations, a decline in voter education initiatives, and general concerns regarding the integrity of the electoral process leading up to the August 13, 2026, polls ^[3][4][5][6]. Surveys suggest that President Hichilema may be vulnerable due to public discontent, even in the absence of a unified opposition challenger ^[3][4][5][6].

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) announced 70 new constituencies on 2026-04-16, anchored on the constitutional amendment that increased constituency-based seats from 156 to 226, for the August 2026 general election cycle ^[1]. The ECZ also stated the delimitation exercise kicked off in February 2026 with consultations in 116 districts, with names and boundaries to be published in the Government Gazette by 2026-04-15 and taking effect after the next dissolution of Parliament ^[2].

At least one public analysis links Zambia’s 2026 constituency delimitation to a projected UPND advantage of ~133 out of 226 constituency seats (~58.8%) under past voting patterns ^[3]. A second analysis claims the delimitation generates a UPND “structural seat bonus,” citing ~155–165 of 226 at ~50% popular vote, and discusses how proportional representation or nominated seats could shift the final composition ^[4].