New Taipei mayoral election winner?

Lee Shu-chuan's platform prioritizes societal issues and infrastructure development. His campaign, conducted in joint effort with the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), addresses critical issues such as the declining birth rate, an aging population, and the expansion of public childcare services ^[1][2][3]. Lee's individual pledges include a 'Sports City 2.0' plan, promising a major domed stadium in Shulin within eight years, alongside the establishment of an AI tech corridor ^[1]. The KMT and TPP joint platform further focuses on expanding social housing, ensuring a stable energy supply, and facilitating digital transition and AI adoption for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) ^[2][3].

Su Chiao-hui's campaign focuses on social challenges and youth welfare. Her platform particularly emphasizes population aging, youth welfare, and strategies to address demographic decline ^[4][3]. Su's campaign draws significant support from senior figures within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) ^[4][3].

Polling data from Q3 2026 supports a tightening race between candidates. As of September 21, 2026, there is no completed Q4 polling data available, as Q4 begins in October ^[4]. However, Q3 data supports the narrative of a tightening race between Lee Shu-chuan and Su Chiao-hui ^[3][2][5][1]. The strongest direct evidence for this comes from a September 1 survey commissioned by the Taipei Hsinmin Association, which found Su Chiao-hui leading Lee Shu-chuan 35.2% to 34.7%, a narrow margin of only 0.5 percentage points ^[1].

Additional Q3 polls and simulations show a close, yet not evenly matched, race. Further indicating a narrow contest, a September 8 TPOC AI simulation showed Lee leading 36.9% to 32.7%, a 4.2-point difference, while Su had a slightly higher favorability rating (35.7% versus 34.7%) ^[2]. The September 15 TPOC AI simulation continued to show a relatively close race, with Lee at 37.9% and Su at 31.5%, a 6.4-point Lee advantage, and close favorability ratings ^[3]. The broader Q3 polling record was directionally mixed, with Lee leading by 6.9 points in a July TVBS poll and by 6.7 points in a late August TVBS survey, contrasted with Su's lead in the September 1 Hsinmin survey ^[6][5][1]. This Q3 data supports the idea of a 'tightening' race, as Su is within a few points in multiple recent surveys, has led one survey, and enjoys comparable or better favorability ^[3][2][5][1]. However, it does not support the conclusion that the candidates are 'evenly matched,' because conventional and later September results generally show Lee ahead by roughly 4–7 points, and prediction markets still strongly favor Lee ^{[3][2][5][1][7][8]}.

Key endorsements and strategic events could significantly boost candidate support. For KMT candidates, endorsements from KMT Chair Cheng Li-wun would be significant ^[1][2][3]. A female candidate could benefit substantially from joint campaign appearances with her influential father and active support from President Lai Ching-te and other high-ranking DPP officials, leveraging her family's political legacy and mobilizing the party base ^[2][4][5][6]. Additionally, a unified policy platform showcasing opposition cohesion and successful policy announcements, particularly those highlighting cooperation with Taipei and directly benefiting New Taipei residents, could enhance a candidate's appeal ^{[1][2][12][13][14]}. Developments related to the "Keelung–New Taipei–Taipei–Taoyuan Cooperation and Exchange Platform," which addresses inter-city issues, might also influence public perception, especially for candidates emphasizing regional collaboration ^[7]. Public debates focusing on critical local issues such as housing affordability, environmental sustainability, childcare, elderly care, and youth employment are vital for swaying undecided voters ^{[1][8][9][10][7][11]}.

Broader influences and unforeseen missteps significantly shape campaign dynamics. Shifts in online public opinion, viral social media campaigns, and influential media coverage can profoundly shape voter perceptions ^[15]. Heightened political polarization and external influence operations, including potential cognitive warfare or economic incentives from Beijing, might unexpectedly elevate cross-Strait relations as a catalytic issue, impacting voter sentiment on national identity and security ^[16][17]. Conversely, any significant missteps, gaffes, or newly uncovered controversies related to either candidate or their close associates could act as major negative catalysts, potentially altering the electoral landscape ^[1][17].

Public prediction markets for New Taipei's 2026 election lack specific turnout models. The specific prediction market for the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election does not appear to be primarily driven by specific, publicly disclosed district-level voter turnout models ^[1][2]. There is no public evidence indicating that this particular prediction market relies on a proprietary or unique district-level turnout model, nor does it publicly show reliance on historical voter turnout data from the Central Election Commission (CEC) for modeling outcomes, despite such data being utilized by academic research and political analysts in Taiwan ^{[3][4][5][6][7]}.

Other key factors influence New Taipei's mayoral election predictions. Instead, the prediction markets for the New Taipei mayoral election are primarily driven by other elements. These include general polling data, the consolidation of the opposition, such as a potential Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) alliance, and the administrative records of the candidates ^[1][2]. These factors are understood to be the main influences shaping the market's predictions for the upcoming election ^[1][2].

The KMT-TPP coalition formed to consolidate opposition for New Taipei mayor. The Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) solidified their alliance for the 2026 New Taipei mayoral election by holding a coordinated primary in April 2026 ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}. Lee Shu-chuan defeated TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang in this primary ^{[1][2][3][4][5]}. Following his defeat, Huang Kuo-chang suspended his mayoral bid, pledged his full support to Lee Shu-chuan, and announced that his campaign headquarters would serve as a joint base for TPP city councilor candidates and Lee's mayoral campaign ^[3][4][5]. Lee Shu-chuan is now positioned as the primary opposition challenger, supported by promises of shared governance and the recruitment of TPP talent ^[1][2][6].

Polling and prediction markets indicate the coalition effectively consolidated support. The coalition's effectiveness in mobilizing support is evidenced by polling data and favorable prediction market sentiment, which show consolidated TPP support ^[1][3][4]. A TVBS poll conducted in late August 2026 showed Lee Shu-chuan leading with 39.8% compared to 33.1% for Democratic Progressive Party candidate Su Chiao-hui ^[1][3][4]. Furthermore, trader sentiment on prediction markets consistently favors Lee Shu-chuan due to the successful consolidation of opposition votes ^[1][3][4].

The 2026 New Taipei mayoral election, scheduled for November 28, 2026, as part of Taiwan's local government elections, presents a significant political event ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]}. The main contenders for the New Taipei mayoralty are Lee Shu-chuan, a KMT/TPP joint candidate, and Su Chiao-hui from the DPP ^[4][9].

The race is highly competitive, based on current polling and prediction market data. Lee Shu-chuan maintains a lead in several AI-based simulations and prediction market contracts, with probabilities reaching approximately 80% on Polymarket ^{[10][11][12][13][14]}. Conversely, traditional polling shows the contest tightening to within the margin of error, occasionally indicating a lead for Su Chiao-hui ^[10][15]. The divergence between AI simulations/prediction markets and traditional polling suggests potential volatility as the election approaches.

Upcoming dates on the election timeline will serve as key catalysts for market probability shifts. These include the candidate ballot number lottery on October 23, 2026, and the official mayoral campaign period, which runs from November 13 to November 27, 2026 ^[7][16][8]. These events are likely to influence voter sentiment and campaign momentum.