Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect a Coalition including ODM to win the next Kenyan Senate election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Based on the chart data, this market shows a complete absence of price movement. The probability for the ODM party to win the 2027 Kenyan Senate election has remained static at 56.0% since the market's inception. There have been no spikes, drops, or any fluctuations whatsoever. The overall trend is perfectly sideways, with the price never deviating from its starting point across all 159 data points.
The reason for this static price is evident from the trading volume. The total volume traded is zero contracts, indicating that no buying or selling has ever occurred in this market. Without any transactions, there is no market pressure to drive the price up or down. This lack of volume suggests a complete absence of trader participation and, therefore, no market conviction. The price has not changed because it has never been tested by actual trading activity.
Technically, the 56.0% mark acts as both the sole support and resistance level, as the price has never moved away from it. However, this is a consequence of zero activity rather than a level established through trading. The chart does not reflect any genuine market sentiment or collective belief about the outcome of the election. The 56.0% probability simply represents the initial price at which the market was listed, not an evolving consensus from participants.
  • Widespread public dissatisfaction with incumbent government's economic management persists.
  • Four Mount Kenya governors are aligning with the Jubilee Party.
  • Orange Democratic Movement shows strong popularity in Western and Coastal regions.
  • United Democratic Alliance currently leads Nairobi polls with 25% popularity.
  • Major opposition parties benefit from voter discontent with the incumbent.
  • Kenya experienced significant food insecurity and rising cost of living in 2025.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Coalition including ODM 56.0% 57.2% The coalition benefits from a strong national presence and established voter base.
Coalition including UDA 36.0% 31.3% The coalition garners significant support from its regional strongholds.
Coalition including DCP 12.0% 11.5% The coalition shows potential for growth and appeals to specific voter demographics.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

  1. What exactly triggers a YES resolution: The market resolves to "Yes" if a registered pre-election coalition including the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) wins the most seats in the next Kenyan Senate election, expected by 2027 at the latest. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) provides official certification for the outcome.
  2. What triggers a NO resolution: The market resolves to "No" if a registered pre-election coalition including ODM does not win the most seats in the next Kenyan Senate election. This event is mutually exclusive with other listed outcomes for the Senate election.
  3. Key dates/deadlines: The market opened on July 16, 2025, at 10:00 AM EDT. It will close after the outcome occurs or by August 30, 2028, at 10:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
  4. Any special settlement conditions: The winner is the party or formal pre-election coalition that wins the most seats. In case of a tie for most seats, the winner is the party that forms the government; if a tie persists, it's the party with the higher share of the vote. If the election is postponed, the contract remains open for a maximum of two years, and contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority. Persons employed by any Source Agencies are prohibited from trading.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Coalition including ODM $0.55 $0.54 56%
Coalition including UDA $0.45 $0.64 36%
Coalition including DCP $0.12 $0.97 12%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 71 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score95Strong
Trade quality20% of score0Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score71Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Info fairness95
Structural prior — no screens applyStrong
Trade quality0
Order book is critically thinAvoid
Market integrity
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Trade quality
0Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 4.0c slippage (~8% of a 51c contract)

$1,000 order: 26.9c slippage (~53% of a 51c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Coalition including ODM–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity80
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 6d

No trades in the last 6d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
80 · Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Coalition including UDA–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity80
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 5d

No trades in the last 5d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
80 · Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. How Do Kenyan Parties Currently Poll in Key Regions?

ODM Popularity Western Kenya30% (Infotrak polls) [1]
ODM Popularity Coast Region27% (Infotrak polls) [1]
UDA Popularity Nairobi25% (Infotrak polls) [1]
Recent Infotrak polling shows varied party popularity across key swing regions. Current polling data from Infotrak provides insights into the popularity of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) parties within Western Kenya, the Coast region, and Nairobi. ODM demonstrates significant leads in Western Kenya, registering 30% popularity compared to UDA's 22% [1]. Similarly, along the Coast, ODM holds a 27% popularity rating, with UDA trailing at 18% [1].
UDA currently holds a narrow lead over ODM in Nairobi. In contrast to the other regions, the UDA party currently holds a slight edge over ODM in the capital city, with recent Infotrak data indicating UDA's popularity at 25% compared to ODM's 22% [1]. It is important to note that these figures reflect party popularity rather than individual net approval ratings for leaders. Furthermore, the available sources do not contain projections for future approval rating trends for the 12-month period leading up to the 2027 election [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1Party popularity battle: UDA vs ODM — What recent Infotrak and TIFA polls really say - Radio47radio47.fm

6. Which Mount Kenya Governors are Aligning with Jubilee for 2027 Elections?

Governors for Jubilee SenateFour Mount Kenya governors [1]
Nyeri Governor's 2027 PlanMutahi Kahiga to run for Senate [2]
Jubilee Party AffiliationConstituent member of Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Coalition [3]
A significant number of Mount Kenya governors are expected to align with the Jubilee Party. By the official campaign period deadline in 2027, a substantial segment of governors from the Mount Kenya region is projected to publicly align with the Jubilee Party. This party is a key member of the Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Coalition. Reports indicate that four Mount Kenya governors are seeking Senate seats in 2027 on the Jubilee ticket, actively choosing not to align with the political party associated with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua [1].
Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga exemplifies this political realignment among governors. Governor Kahiga plans to vie for a Senate seat in 2027 once his gubernatorial term concludes [2]. He has publicly denounced a party associated with Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua [4]. This collective action by multiple governors suggests a deliberate shift towards a political coalition separate from the ruling Kenya Kwanza alliance, positioning these governors within the Azimio la Umoja–One Kenya Coalition or as part of a notable opposition bloc [1].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Worried four Mt Kenya governors seek senate seats 2027 on Jubilee not Gachagua DCP – Weekly Citizenweeklycitizen.co.ke
  2. 2Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga Sets Sights on Senate Seat in 2027 | Dawan Africa | Dawan Africadawan.africa
  3. 3List of 47 Kenyan Governors and Their Counties in 2026nyongesasande.com
  4. 4Mutahi Kahiga Changes Tune, Denounces Gachagua's Party In Front of William Ruto - Tuko.co.ketuko.co.ke

7. What Factors Are Driving Kenya's Worsening Food Insecurity and Cost of Living?

Population Facing Acute Food Insecurity3.3 million Kenyans (late 2025) [1]
Kenyans Identifying Economy as Most Serious Problem67% (December 2025) [2]
Blame for Rising Cost of LivingMost Kenyans blame government economic management (January 2025) [3]
Kenya faced widespread food insecurity and financial hardship in 2025. By late 2025, 3.3 million people experienced acute food insecurity, indicating a regression in the country's Global Hunger Index ranking [4]. This worsening hunger situation was exacerbated by the Finance Bill 2025, which contributed to increased costs for essential goods such as food and transport [5]. Throughout 2025, multiple surveys consistently highlighted pervasive financial struggles among Kenyans [6]. A December 2025 poll further underscored these concerns, revealing that 67% of the population viewed the economy as the country's most serious problem [2].
Kenyans blame government policies for rising costs, heightening future concerns. Public sentiment largely attributes the escalating cost of living to the government's economic management [3], leading a majority of Kenyans to reject various government plans due to deepening financial worries [7]. Looking towards 2027, the combination of severe food insecurity, heightened food costs resulting from recent legislation, and widespread financial hardship suggests that public worry about hunger will intensify. Unless substantial policy changes occur, public perception is likely to continue reflecting deep concern over the cost of living and the impact of government economic strategies, with hunger remaining a critical underlying anxiety leading into the upcoming elections.
Sources (7)
  1. 1Hunger worsens in Kenya as 3.3 million face acute food insecurityeastleighvoice.co.ke
  2. 2TIFA Report: 67% of Kenyans Say Economy Is the Country’s Most Serious Problem - Nairobi Wirenairobiwire.com
  3. 3https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/AD935-Kenyans-blame-govt-economic-management-for-increasing-cost-of-living-Afrobarometer-9jan25.pdfafrobarometer.org
  4. 4Kenya’s Hunger Regression: What Kenya’s New Global Hunger Index Ranking Really Means - IEA Kenyaieakenya.or.ke
  5. 5Finance Bill 2025 has pushed up food, transport costs, Tifa survey showsthe-star.co.ke
  6. 6TIFA: More Kenyans struggling financially under Ruto’s governmentnewsflash.co.ke
  7. 7Kenya: Majority of Kenyans Reject Ruto-Raila's Broad-Based Govt Plan As Cost of Living Concerns Deepen - Tifa Poll - allAfrica.comallafrica.com

8. Will EU Observers Trust Kenya's New IEBC Preparations?

IEBC Selection Panel Members9 (chaired by Dr. Nelson Makanda) [1]
New IEBC ChairpersonErastus Edung [2]
New IEBC CommissionersSix new commissioners appointed [3]
President Ruto recently appointed a new IEBC chairperson and commissioners. The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) selection panel, comprising nine members and chaired by Dr. Nelson Makanda, has concluded its work [1]. Following the panel's process, President William Ruto appointed Erastus Edung as the new IEBC chairperson, alongside six new commissioners [2]. These appointments contribute to the broader list of IEBC commissioners in Kenya from 2011 to 2026 [4].
Future EU EOM assessment of IEBC preparations remains uncertain. The available research does not definitively predict whether the new commission's pre-election preparations will be rated as 'transparent and trusted' by the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) in their preliminary 2027 report. While previous EU Election Follow-Up Missions have recorded observations [5] and called for expedited electoral reform to ensure transparency [6], a specific rating cannot be determined at this stage. The IEBC has presented its 2027 Election Readiness Framework to Members of Parliament, indicating ongoing preparations [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Dr. Nelson Makanda picked as chairperson for IEBC Selection Paneleastleighvoice.co.ke
  2. 2President Ruto gazettes appointment of new IEBC chair, commissioners | KBC Digitalkbc.co.ke
  3. 3Ruto appoints Erastus Edung as IEBC chair, names 6 new commissionersk24.digital
  4. 4Complete list of all IEBC commissioners in Kenya from 2011 to 2026 - Tuko.co.ketuko.co.ke
  5. 5The European Union Election Follow-Up Mission Final Report for Kenya 2025eeas.europa.eu
  6. 6https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/kenya/eu-election-follow-mission-calls-kenyan-authorities-expedite-electoral-reform-ensure-transparent_eneeas.europa.eu
  7. 7IEBC - newsiebc.or.ke

9. What are the proposed constitutional changes in Kenya by 2025?

Proposed BillConstitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2025 documented [1]
Executive Role AdvocacySenator Cherargei advocates for Prime Minister and Opposition Leader roles [2]
Party ProposalUDA leaders propose 'Raila for Prime Minister' [3]
Political figures and parties in Kenya are actively advocating for executive structure amendments. Several prominent figures and groups are calling for constitutional changes by the end of 2025, which would alter the structure of the executive, potentially reintroducing a Prime Minister position. Senator Cherargei has publicly proposed amending the Constitution to establish the offices of Prime Minister and Official Opposition Leader [2]. Similarly, leaders within the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) have supported constitutional changes, including a proposal for 'Raila for Prime Minister' following the African Union Commission (AUC) loss [3].
Legislative efforts are underway for a 2025 constitutional amendment bill. These legislative initiatives include a "Constitution of Kenya (Amendment) Bill, 2025," documented through a Bills Digest from Parliament and a source bill from the Senate, indicating ongoing processes related to such amendments [1]. While there is clear political momentum and active legislative initiatives concerning constitutional amendments to restructure the executive, the provided sources do not definitively confirm the successful passage of such bills through both houses of Parliament and a potential referendum by the end of 2025. The information points to the initiation and advocacy for these changes rather than their completion within the specified timeframe.
Executive amendments could significantly reshape 2027 pre-election coalition agreements. Nonetheless, these ongoing discussions and proposals are a significant factor in Kenya's political landscape, especially as political alliances for the 2027 elections are already forming by 2025 [4]. If successfully enacted, any constitutional amendment altering the executive structure would likely reshape these pre-existing or nascent coalition agreements by altering the political offices available and the distribution of power.
Sources (4)
  1. 1https://www.parliament.go.ke/sites/default/files/2025-08/Bills%20Digest%20-%20The%20Constitution%20of%20Kenya%20%28Amendment%29%20Bill%2C%202025.pdfparliament.go.ke
  2. 2Cherargei Calls for Constitution Ammendment to Create Prime Minister and Opposition Leader Offices - Kenyans.co.kekenyans.co.ke
  3. 3Raila for Prime Minister! UDA leaders push for constitutional changes after AUC losseastleighvoice.co.ke
  4. 4Inside Kenya’s 2025 political alliances ahead of the 2027 electionsthe-star.co.ke