Who will win the next Greek general election?

Political scandals, despite rejections, fuel early election speculation. Prime Minister Mitsotakis has publicly dismissed any discussion of an early general election in 2026, despite revived media speculation linking such a move to ongoing corruption and wiretapping scandals ^[4][1]. Specifically, discussions in spring 2026 revolved around dynamics stemming from both the OPEKEPE subsidy-corruption and the Predator wiretapping controversies ^[1]. European Chief Prosecutor Laura Kovesi emphasized the need to address OPEKEPE allegations involving "corruption, nepotism and clientelism," urging the lifting of parliamentary immunity for 13 lawmakers ^[5]. Concurrently, the Predator spyware controversy has persisted, triggering renewed debate and calls from the opposition for resignations and an early election ^[6][7][8]. Arguments for an early poll suggest it could be a strategic move to "derail" plans for new parties and prevent a "slow drip" of further scandal revelations before mid to late 2026 ^[1].

Economic instability, particularly from the Middle East, could prompt early elections. The conflict in the Middle East is cited as a significant factor with potential electoral implications ^[2]. Higher global oil and gas prices could quickly lead to inflationary pressure within Greece, negatively impacting its crucial tourism and investment sectors ^[2]. Analysis has identified inflation, transport costs, and energy costs as key channels through which economic strain could manifest ^[3]. Although Greece's energy supply is currently secure, officials have noted that a prolonged Middle East conflict could substantially increase natural gas procurement costs due to tighter LNG markets, subsequently driving up domestic prices ^[9]. These economic trajectories, alongside developments in political scandals, are expected to influence the incentives for Prime Minister Mitsotakis to consider calling an early election ^[10].

New Democracy maintains lead despite declining support since June 2023. Since the June 2023 election, polling trends indicate a decrease in public support for New Democracy, though the party consistently maintains a substantial lead over other political parties ^{[4][8][9][6][7][10]}. Its performance in the June 2024 European Parliament elections, at 28.3%, reflected a downward trend compared to its 2023 national results ^[1]. Aggregated data from December 2025 showed New Democracy at 29% ^[6], while in May 2026, polls placed the party's support in the range of 24.5% (raw voting intention) to 32.2% (projected vote share) ^{[2][4][11][12]}. Despite these dynamics, the opposition remains fragmented ^[6][10], with a high percentage of undecided voters and a broader sense of disillusionment with political leaders also evident ^[4][13][10].

SYRIZA's support plummeted, allowing PASOK to solidify second place. SYRIZA has experienced a dramatic decline in public support ^[5][14]; after garnering 17.83% in June 2023 ^[15][16][17], its support now hovers between 4% and 7% in recent polls ^{[2][3][4][5][6][7]}. Its June 2024 European Parliament election performance saw its support drop to less than half of its 2023 national polls ^[18], a decline attributed in part to internal turmoil and leadership changes within the party ^[5][6][18]. In contrast, PASOK – Movement for Change, which received 11.84% in June 2023 ^[15][16][17], has shown limited gains ^[7]. Recent polls in May 2026 place PASOK around 14.8% to 14.9% ^[2][3], with other polls ranging from 11% to 16% ^{[4][8][13][19][7][10]}. While some polls suggest a "modest resurgence" ^[10] or "limited gains" ^[7], others describe its polling numbers as "stagnant" ^[8]. PASOK has, however, frequently solidified its position as the second-largest party, particularly benefiting from SYRIZA's disarray ^[5][14].

New Democracy prioritizes tax reductions and prudent fiscal management. ND's economic strategy centers on reducing taxes, with a specific aim to eliminate the self-employed tax by 2027 ^[6][7]. Fiscal targets include achieving a primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP for both 2024 and 2025, alongside a goal to reduce the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 120% by 2030 ^[1]. Additionally, the proposed 2025 budget allocates an €870 million support package, which features pension increases and further tax reductions for citizens ^[7].

SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL propose progressive taxation and debt relief. In contrast, SYRIZA's economic proposals include increasing the tax-free threshold to €10,000, lowering the Value Added Tax (VAT) on food to 6%, and introducing windfall taxes on energy companies ^[2][3]. Regarding public debt, SYRIZA calls for a debt write-off conference and a 120-installment repayment plan for outstanding arrears ^[3]. PASOK-KINAL also advocates for progressive taxation and reductions in work-related taxes, alongside a 5% levy on bank super-profits exceeding €400 million ^[4][5]. Both SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL support a 120-installment plan for addressing public debt ^[3][8].

Opinion was the most accurate Greek pollster in the 2023 elections. According to PolitPro's accuracy check, which compared final pre-election polls to official results, Opinion achieved an average deviation of 1.2 percentage points ^[1][2]. Following Opinion, Pulse RC and Metron Analysis also demonstrated high accuracy ^[1]. Each recorded an average deviation of 1.5 percentage points, both receiving a "Highly Accurate" rating ^[1].

Several other Greek pollsters also achieved high accuracy ratings. In the same PolitPro ranking, MRB showed an average deviation of 1.8 percentage points, and RASS 1.9 percentage points, both earning "Highly Accurate" ratings ^[1]. Institutes like GPO were considered less accurate, with an average deviation of 2.1 percentage points ^[1].

A party likely needs 38% of the vote for a majority. Under current Greek electoral law, a leading party would likely require approximately 38% of the national vote to secure an absolute majority of seats in the Hellenic Parliament ^[1]. This legislative body is composed of 300 seats, which are allocated across 56 constituencies using a system of reinforced proportional representation ^[2].

The electoral system awards bonus seats to the leading party. This mechanism incorporates a sliding-scale majority bonus for the party that finishes first ^[3]. It awards 20 extra seats to the leading party upon reaching 25% of the national vote ^[3]. An additional seat is granted for every 0.5 percentage points above 25%, with the bonus capped at a maximum of 50 extra seats for parties receiving 40% or more of the national vote ^[3]. Conversely, no bonus is applied if a party receives less than 25% of the national vote ^[3].

The prediction market contract for the next Greek general election (2027) resolves to "Yes" if New Democracy wins ^[1][2]. Currently, odds indicate New Democracy as the top outcome, with other major outcomes like SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL showing much lower implied likelihoods ^[3][2][1]. New Democracy is described as "optimistic" and maintaining a lead over PASOK ahead of the election season ^[4]. The Kalshi contract closes on 2028-07-30T14:00:00Z, although the Greek parliamentary election itself is scheduled before 25 July 2027 ^[1][2][5][6].

Potential factors that could alter political competition closer to the election include scandals/investigations and the possible emergence of new opposition parties, such as those connected with Tsipras and Karystianou ^[7][4][8]. While these developments are highlighted as potentially influencing the political landscape ^[7][4][8], the Greek government is reportedly downplaying speculation about snap elections ^[7].