Georgia: Which elections will be won outright?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Commissioner of Agriculture to be won outright, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market's price action is characterized by a stable, sideways trend contained within a very narrow 4-point range. The probability began at 79.0% and saw one notable upward movement to 83.0% early in its history, around mid-April 2026. Since that adjustment, the price has held steady at the top of this range. Given that no specific news context is available, the catalyst for this initial price increase is not apparent from the provided information. The chart does not show any significant volatility or sharp price swings following this early shift.
Trading volume for the contract totals 2,472, but activity appears sporadic, which can suggest periods of lower liquidity or a strong consensus that discourages new trading. The price movement has established a clear support level at the 79.0% floor and a firm resistance level at the 83.0% ceiling. The market sentiment, as reflected by the chart, is strong and stable. The consistently high probability indicates a confident and unwavering expectation among traders that the Georgia election in question will be won outright in a single round, avoiding a runoff.
- A significant field of Republican primary candidates complicates outright victories.
- Fewer registered voters could lower the threshold for outright wins.
- Republican candidates exhibit a significant cash-on-hand advantage in key races.
- Limited Libertarian ballot access reduces third-party vote splitting.
- Top-ticket Georgia races are anticipated to be highly competitive.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | 76.0% | 65.0% | The evidence indicates the Republican gubernatorial primary has narrowed to a "two-man race," which could imply consolidation, but it also notes Brad Raffensperger's entry might lead to a divisive primary, potentially hindering an outright win in the general election. |
| Lieutenant Governor | 84.0% | 78.9% | The provided background research exclusively concerns the 2026 Georgia Republican Gubernatorial Primary, offering no relevant information to either support the high debiased probability of an outright Lieutenant Governor win in 2003 or to suggest a reason for it being incorrect. |
| Commissioner of Insurance | 84.0% | 78.9% | The provided background research focuses exclusively on the 2026 Georgia Republican Gubernatorial Primary and offers no specific information or analysis regarding the Commissioner of Insurance race, making it neutral for this market. |
| Senate | 83.0% | 77.6% | The provided background research details events in the 2026 Georgia Republican Gubernatorial Primary, offering no specific evidence to support or contradict the market's assessment for the Senate election, thus leaving the debiased price unchanged. |
| Commissioner of Agriculture | 89.0% | 85.5% | The provided background research pertains exclusively to the Georgia Republican Gubernatorial Primary and offers no specific information or citations relevant to the Commissioner of Agriculture election, resulting in neutral evidence for this market. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
A YES resolution occurs if any candidate receives the required legal threshold of votes (typically over 50% of valid first-round votes) in the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial general election, eliminating the need for subsequent rounds. Conversely, a NO resolution triggers if no candidate meets this threshold, necessitating additional rounds. The market opens on December 31, 2025, closes after the first-round outcome is determined (or by November 3, 2027), with payouts projected 30 minutes later, and trading by employees of the verifying Georgia Secretary of State is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commissioner of Agriculture | $0.90 | $0.17 | 89% |
| Commissioner of Labor | $0.87 | $0.20 | 86% |
| Commissioner of Insurance | $0.85 | $0.16 | 84% |
| Lieutenant Governor | $0.85 | $0.16 | 84% |
| Secretary of State | $0.83 | $0.18 | 84% |
| Senate | $0.83 | $0.18 | 83% |
| State Superintendent of Schools | $0.80 | $0.21 | 79% |
| Attorney General | $0.79 | $0.22 | 78% |
| Governor | $0.77 | $0.24 | 76% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score37High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score73Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
5. What is the Status of the 2026 Georgia Republican Gubernatorial Primary?
| GOP Qualifying Period | March 2-6, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| GOP Primary Poll Status | Narrowed to 'two-man race' by April 2026 [2] |
| Raffensperger's Candidacy | Declared despite Republican criticism [3] |
Georgia's Republican gubernatorial primary by Q2 2026 featured a significant field of candidates. Candidate qualifying for the election occurred between March 2 and March 6, 2026 [1]. Among those declaring candidacy was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, whose entry into the race, despite previous criticism from fellow Republicans, signaled a potentially contentious primary contest [3]. Early polling conducted by Rasmussen Reports in February 2026 indicated considerable activity within the Georgia GOP primary [4]. By April 2026, an InsiderAdvantage poll further suggested that the Republican gubernatorial primary had begun to consolidate, evolving into a 'two-man race' for the nomination [2].
These developments collectively point to a potentially competitive and divisive Republican primary. The initial large field of candidates [5], combined with the subsequent consolidation into a 'two-man race' indicated by polling [6], and the controversial candidacy of Brad Raffensperger [3], underscore the potential for internal party friction. In contrast, the provided research did not offer explicit details or polling data by Q2 2026 regarding the Democratic party's ability to consolidate early around a single slate of candidates for the gubernatorial election. Information concerning Senator Ossoff's re-election campaign polling [7] pertained specifically to the U.S. Senate race and not the gubernatorial contest.
Sources (7)
- 1Qualifying for Georgia governor election is March 2-6. Who is running?eu.goupstate.com
- 2Who is leading the GOP in Senate, governor races? New InsiderAdvantage poll | FOX 5 Atlantafox5atlanta.com
- 3Brad Raffensperger runs for Georgia governor and tries to defy Republicans who called him ‘repugnant’ | CNN Politicscnn.com
- 4Toplines - GA GOP Primary Feb 2026 - Rasmussen Reports®rasmussenreports.com
- 5Georgia’s ’26 elections draw big fields of candidates running for state’s top offices |capitol-beat.org
- 6New InsiderAdvantage GOP poll: Governor primary a two man race, Senate contest close | James Magazine Onlinejamesmagazinega.com
- 7Georgia 2026 Poll: Senator Ossoff Starts Re-Election Near 50% and Outpaces GOP Field - Emerson Pollingclick-em.ajc.com
6. How Did Georgia Voter Registrations Change From 2025 to 2026?
| Statewide Cancellations | Nearly 471,000 registrations (August 2025) [1] |
|---|---|
| Period Under Review | January 2025 to September 2026 [2] |
| County Net Change Data | Not comprehensively available in provided sources [2] |
Georgia implemented a significant statewide voter registration cancellation in August 2025. This significant development involved the cancellation of approximately 471,000 voter registrations across the state [1]. This list maintenance effort impacted all counties, including the key Democratic-leaning metro Atlanta counties of Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, and Cobb [1]. While specific voter registration data for these counties were available for various periods around 2025, the research does not provide comprehensive figures to calculate the exact net change in registered voters for each county from January 2025 to September 2026, encompassing both cancellations and new registrations [3].
Data gaps prevent calculating net changes in specific county groups. The August 2025 statewide cancellation of nearly 471,000 voter registrations similarly affected Republican-leaning North Georgia and rural counties [1]. Although some discussions regarding voter registration figures by elections boards in these regions were reported, the research does not offer sufficient data to establish a specific net change in registered voters for these counties during the January 2025 to September 2026 period [4].
Direct comparisons to the 2022 midterm period are currently not possible. Based on the available sources, a direct comparison of voter registration shifts during the January 2025 to September 2026 period with the equivalent period leading up to the 2022 midterms (January 2021 to September 2022) cannot be made [1-9].
7. What Is the Early 2026 Financial Standing of Georgia Candidates?
| Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones (R) Cash on Hand | $2.1 million (early 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Attorney General Chris Carr (R) Cash on Hand | $1.7 million (early 2026) [1] |
| Attorney General Jen Jordan (D) Cash on Hand | $550,000 (early 2026) [1] |
Republican candidates demonstrate significant cash-on-hand advantage in key Georgia races. As of early 2026, Republican Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones reported $2.1 million cash on hand, while Attorney General Chris Carr had $1.7 million. In contrast, their Democratic challengers possessed considerably less. Attorney General candidate Jen Jordan reported approximately $550,000 cash on hand [1], and the Democratic challengers for Lieutenant Governor, state Sens. Elena Parent and Jason Esteves, each reported raising under $300,000 in 2025 [1].
Republican financial strength enables significant advertising, but specific funding origins remain unclear. This financial disparity provides Republicans with a stronger foundation for campaign activities, particularly for substantial television ad buys leading into the critical October 2026 period [1]. While there is a national trend of significant funding in state attorney general races and a Georgia GOP measure to cap out-of-state donations was advancing in March 2026, the provided research did not detail specific Q1-Q2 2026 figures for national Super PAC and out-of-state funding directly into these lower-profile Georgia state races [2].
8. What Are Key Deadlines for Georgia Libertarian Ballot Access?
| Confirmed Libertarian Candidate | Ted Metz (Georgia Secretary of State) [1] |
|---|---|
| Signatures for Ballot Access | 56,050 valid signatures [2] |
| Ballot Access Deadline | July 1, 2026 [2] |
Only one Libertarian candidate has qualified for statewide office so far. As of the initial qualifying period ending March 7, 2026, Ted Metz has successfully qualified as a Libertarian candidate for Georgia Secretary of State, making him the only confirmed statewide Libertarian candidate identified by the provided sources by this earlier deadline [1]. The official qualifying deadline for general election and special election candidates in Georgia for 2026 is scheduled for August 19-23, 2026 [3].
The Libertarian Party is actively petitioning to secure statewide ballot access. The Libertarian Party of Georgia (LPG) is currently undertaking efforts to regain qualified statewide status, which requires collecting 56,050 valid signatures by July 1, 2026 [2]. The ability of the Libertarian Party to field candidates, including Ted Metz, under their party banner in the 2026 general election is contingent upon their success in meeting this petitioning deadline [2].
Historical vote share data for this specific race is not available. The provided research did not contain specific historical vote share data for the Libertarian Party in the Georgia Secretary of State race during the 2018 and 2022 elections.
9. How Competitive Are Georgia's 2026 Elections and Ticket-Splitting Potential?
| 2026 Georgia Senate Race | Highly competitive, with some polls showing Senator Ossoff "riding high" and others indicating a "dead heat" [1] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Georgia Governor's Race | Republicans face significant chance of losing, indicating a competitive environment [2] |
| Ticket-Splitting Potential | Prediction markets suggest differential outcomes (outright wins vs. runoffs) implying voters may not be voting a straight ticket [3] |
Georgia's 2026 top-ticket races are expected to be highly competitive. The upcoming Georgia Senate race is anticipated to be very tight; while an October 2025 poll suggested Senator Ossoff was "riding high" against a "MAGA firebrand," other analyses indicate he is in a "dead heat" in the general election [1]. Similarly, the Governor's race is closely watched, with reports suggesting Republicans face a significant chance of losing, pointing to an intensely competitive environment across these races [2].
Evidence suggests potential ticket-splitting in down-ballot races, particularly for Attorney General. Specific crosstab data on demographics such as suburban women, who might engage in significant ticket-splitting in the Attorney General race, is not detailed in the provided SurveyUSA poll titles [4]. However, prediction markets for Georgia's November 3, 2026 elections anticipate that some races will be won outright, while others may be forced into a runoff [3]. This differing expectation for outright wins versus runoffs across various contests, including Governor, Senate, and Attorney General, suggests that voters may not be voting a straight ticket [3]. This scenario could result in a top-of-the-ticket candidate securing an outright win, while a down-ballot candidate, such as for Attorney General, might be pushed into a runoff by failing to achieve over 50% of the vote [3].
