Short Answer

Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that the Democratic party is most likely to win the Vermont Senate in 2028, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Based on the provided chart data, the price for the Democratic candidate to win the 2028 Vermont Senate election has remained consistently high and stable. The price has moved within a narrow band, from a starting point of 90.9% to its current level of 95.9%. Given the minimal number of data points, the overall trend is best characterized as sideways, with no significant price spikes or drops to analyze. This lack of volatility corresponds directly with the provided context, which indicates a complete absence of any major news, candidate announcements, or other developments specifically related to this future U.S. Senate race.
The market has experienced extremely low trading volume, with only 12 contracts traded in total. This thin liquidity suggests that very few traders are participating in the market at this early stage. The low volume indicates that the current price, while high, may not reflect a broad consensus and could be easily moved by a small number of new trades. The stability of the price is therefore more likely a reflection of a lack of new information or trading interest rather than a strong, tested conviction from a wide pool of participants.
Due to the limited price history, it is not possible to identify any established support or resistance levels. However, the price has consistently held above 90%, indicating this is a key psychological threshold for the few active traders. Overall, the chart suggests a strong market sentiment favoring a Democratic victory in 2028, which is unsurprising given the state's political landscape. This sentiment appears to be a baseline assumption held by the market in the absence of any specific campaign news, rather than a reaction to any recent events.
  • Vermont consistently supports Democratic candidates in federal and presidential elections.
  • The current U.S. Senator for this seat is Democrat Peter Welch.
  • The 2028 U.S. Senate election is scheduled for November 7, 2028.
  • National forecasters have not yet rated the 2028 Vermont Senate race.
  • Absence of specific non-incumbent candidates leaves room for unforeseen developments.
  • Republican Senate candidates historically underperform even popular Republican governors.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Republican party 7.0% 3.1% The 2028 election is distant, and no specific non-Democratic candidates have yet been announced.
Democratic party 95.9% 96.9% Vermont consistently demonstrates a strong Democratic partisan lean, and the incumbent is a Democrat.

Current Context

Vermont's U.S. Senate election for Peter Welch's seat is scheduled for 2028. A U.S. Senate election for the state of Vermont is scheduled for November 7, 2028, to fill the seat currently held by Peter Welch (D) [1][2]. As of May 2026, there is no winner for this 2028 election, as the contest has not yet taken place [3]. Prediction markets are actively tracking the potential outcome of this future event [3].
Recent candidate announcements concern the Vermont State Senate, not the U.S. Senate. It is important to note that recent news regarding Vermont Senate candidates, such as Elizabeth Hunt and David Brickner announcing their candidacies, refers to the Vermont State Senate for 2026, not the U.S. Senate election scheduled for 2028 [4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 12028 United States Senate electionsen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Vermont's Current U.S. Senators | Vermont Senate Candidatessenatemajority.com
  3. 3Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  4. 4South Burlington pediatrician Elizabeth Hunt announces Senate candidacy - Vermont Daily Chroniclevermontdailychronicle.com
  5. 5Brickner For Windsor District Senatemountaintimes.info

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if a Democratic party representative is sworn in as a Vermont Senator for the term beginning in 2029; otherwise, it resolves to No, as this is a mutually exclusive event verified by the United States Congress. The market opened on July 15, 2025, and will close early following the Senator's swearing-in or by November 7, 2029, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Democratic party $0.96 $0.09 96%
Republican party $0.06 $0.98 7%

Market Discussion

The 2028 U.S. Senate election in Vermont is scheduled for November 7, 2028, to fill the Class 3 seat currently held by Democrat Peter Welch [1][2][3]. As of May 2026, prediction markets had established markets for the race, specifically tracking whether a Democratic party representative will be sworn in for the term beginning in 2029 [4]. Vermont Republicans have identified the 2028 federal Senate race as a long-term strategic goal, with some party figures suggesting that building a foundation in the 2026 cycle is essential for future competitiveness [5].

Sources (5)
  1. 12028 United States Senate electionsen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2United States Senate elections, 2028 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 32028 United States Senate electionsen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Exclusive: Roper to nominate Ingalls for Vermont GOP Chair - Vermont Daily Chroniclevermontdailychronicle.com

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Oct 1, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 67 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score29Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score67Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Market integrity80
Structural prior — no screens applyGood
Info fairness80
Structural prior — no screens applyGood
Trade quality29
Order book is critically thinAvoid
Market integrity
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Trade quality
29Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 1.9c slippage (~2% of a 94.7c contract)

$1,000 order: 3.5c slippage (~4% of a 94.7c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Democratic party–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 3d

No trades in the last 3d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Republican party–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 1, 2026

5. In the event of an open seat, who are the likely primary contenders for the Democratic and Republican nominations in Vermont for 2028?

Incumbent SenatorPeter Welch (Democrat) [1][2]
Election Year2028 [1]
Seat StatusNot currently an open seat [3][4]
The Vermont U.S. Senate seat is not currently projected as open for 2028. Incumbent Democrat Peter Welch presently holds the U.S. Senate seat for Vermont, having been elected in 2022 [1][2]. Despite the premise of an open seat for the 2028 election, there is no current indication that the seat will be vacant, nor is there an established list of potential primary contenders [3][4].
Past Democratic political figures in Vermont focused on other offices. For the Democratic nomination, notable figures in Vermont's political landscape have included Becca Balint, Molly Gray, and Kesha Ram Hinsdale [4][5]. However, these individuals have historically pursued other political offices rather than the U.S. Senate seat [4].
Information regarding Republican primary contenders is currently insufficient. There is not enough information available to identify likely primary contenders for the Republican nomination in Vermont for the 2028 election.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Vermont's Current U.S. Senators | Vermont Senate Candidatessenatemajority.com
  2. 22028 United States Senate electionsen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  4. 4Who will take Leahy’s place in the Senate and why does everyone think it’s Welch?vtdigger.org
  5. 5State Senator Kesha Ram Hinsdale joins race for Congress | Local News | benningtonbanner.combenningtonbanner.com

6. How has Vermont's federal election data since 2012 demonstrated the state's partisan lean in presidential and Senate races?

2024 Presidential Vote (Democratic)63.8% [1]
2020 Presidential Vote (Democratic)66.1% [2]
2024 U.S. Senate Vote (Bernie Sanders)63.2% [3]
Vermont consistently supports Democratic presidential candidates with significant margins. Since 2012, the state has reliably voted for Democratic presidential nominees in federal elections. For example, the Democratic candidate secured 66.6% of the vote in 2012 [4], followed by 56.7% in 2016 [5]. This trend continued with 66.1% in 2020 [2] and 63.8% in 2024 [1], demonstrating a clear and persistent preference for Democratic presidential candidates.
Senator Bernie Sanders's strong re-election margins underscore Vermont's federal lean. In U.S. Senate races, Vermont has consistently re-elected Bernie Sanders, an Independent who caucuses with the Democratic Party, by substantial margins. His victories include 71.1% of the vote in 2012 [6] and 63.2% in 2024 [3]. However, despite this strong alignment with federal Democratic politics, Vermont's state-level political landscape can present different outcomes, as evidenced by the 2024 state senate election where Republicans ended the Democratic-Progressive supermajority [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 12020 United States presidential election in Vermonten.wikipedia.org
  2. 2United States presidential elections in Vermonten.wikipedia.org
  3. 32024 United States Senate election in Vermonten.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Presidential voting trends in Vermont - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Vermont Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin270towin.com
  6. 62012 Senatorial General Election Results - Vermontuselectionatlas.org
  7. 72024 Vermont Senate electionen.wikipedia.org

7. How does Governor Phil Scott's statewide approval rating compare to the baseline performance of past Republican U.S. Senate candidates in Vermont?

Gov. Scott Feb 2026 Approval74% (Morning Consult) [1]
Gov. Scott Apr 2025 Approval75% (Morning Consult) [2][3]
2022 US Senate GOP Vote28.0% (Gerald Malloy) [4]
Governor Phil Scott consistently maintains high statewide approval ratings, often exceeding 70%. Recent polls indicate strong public support, with Morning Consult reporting his approval at 74% in February 2026 [1]. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll in October 2025 showed 61% of Vermont residents approved of his job performance [4]. Other data from Morning Consult further illustrates this trend, showing a 72% approval rating in August 2025 [5] and a 75% approval rating with a +58 net approval in April 2025 [2][3].
Republican U.S. Senate candidates consistently receive significantly lower vote shares compared to Governor Scott's popularity. Historically, these candidates have struggled to gain traction, typically securing less than 35% of the vote. For example, in the 2022 U.S. Senate election, Republican candidate Gerald Malloy garnered only 28.0% of the vote [4]. Similarly, Republican Lawrence Zupan received 27.47% in 2018 [6], and Scott Milne secured 33.03% in the 2016 U.S. Senate race [5].
Sources (6)
  1. 1ballotpedia.org
  2. 2vermont.govelectionarchive.vermont.gov
  3. 3sevendaysvt.com
  4. 4wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org

8. What are the key FEC reporting dates for the 2028 election cycle that will reveal initial fundraising data for potential candidates?

Year-End Report DueJanuary 31, 2028 [1][2]
Quarterly Report Due DatesApril 15, July 15, October 15 (of election year) [1][2]
Pre-Election Report Filing12 days before election date [3][2]
Key FEC reporting dates outline the 2028 election cycle's financial disclosures. For the 2028 election cycle, these include the Year-End report for the 2027 nonelection year, which is due on January 31, 2028, covering activity through December 31, 2027. Federal candidate committees also must submit quarterly reports on April 15, July 15, and October 15 of the election year, which cover financial activity through the end of the previous quarter [1][2].
Early fundraising data emerges with candidates' first financial report. Initial fundraising data for potential 2028 candidates will be revealed in their first quarterly report submitted after they register their campaign committee. This report must encompass all financial activity, including any "testing the waters" expenditures, that occurred prior to the committee's official registration [1][2].
Pre-election reports provide crucial financial updates before elections. Beyond the standard quarterly filings, candidates participating in primary or general elections must file pre-election reports. These specific reports are due 12 days before the respective election date and cover financial activity through the 20th day preceding the election [3][2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 Quarterly filersfec.gov
  2. 2FEC | Candidate | Quarterly reportsfec.gov
  3. 3FEC | Candidate | Pre-election reportsfec.gov

9. How do national Senate race forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the 2028 Vermont Senate contest?

2028 Vermont Senate RatingsNot issued by national forecasters (as of May 15, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5]
Forecasters' Current Focus2026 midterm election cycle [1][2][3][4][5]
2028 Vermont Senate Prediction MarketExists on Kalshi [6]
National forecasters have not yet rated the 2028 Vermont Senate race. As of May 15, 2026, prominent national Senate race forecasters, including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, have not released any ratings or analyses for the 2028 Vermont Senate contest. Their current focus remains on the upcoming 2026 midterm election cycle [1][2][3][4][5].
A prediction market provides an early look at the 2028 Vermont Senate contest. Despite the absence of ratings from established political forecasters, a prediction market is available on Kalshi regarding the potential winner of the 2028 Vermont Senate race. This market's resolution is based on whether a Democratic party representative is sworn in as a Senator for Vermont for the term commencing in 2029 [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Vermont Senate | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  2. 22026 CPR Senate Race ratings | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  3. 3Find a Race | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  4. 4Senate | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  5. 5Senate Maps | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  6. 6Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The primary catalyst for potential shifts in market probability is the next U.S. Senate election in Vermont, which is scheduled for November 7, 2028 [1][2][3]. This election will be for the seat currently held by Senator Peter Welch (D) [1][2].
Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, have established markets for the 2028 Vermont U.S. Senate election [4]. These markets will resolve based on whether a Democratic party representative is sworn in for the term beginning in 2029 [4]. Recent news regarding Vermont Senate elections has referred to the Vermont State Senate, rather than the U.S. Senate, with candidates announcing runs for districts like Chittenden and Windsor [5][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 07, 2029
  • Closes: November 07, 2029
Sources (6)
  1. 12028 United States Senate electionsen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Vermont's Current U.S. Senators | Vermont Senate Candidatessenatemajority.com
  3. 3United States Senate elections, 2028 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Vermont Senate winner? (2028) Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5South Burlington pediatrician Elizabeth Hunt announces Senate candidacy - Vermont Daily Chroniclevermontdailychronicle.com
  6. 6Brickner For Windsor District Senatemountaintimes.info