Short Answer

Sherrod Brown is expected to outperform the polls, priced at 99.0% likelihood.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's largest move, a 76.0 percentage point spike on November 5, 2026, was driven by widespread confirmation that Sherrod Brown won the Ohio Senate special election. The victory margin exceeded the +2.8 polling baseline, pushing the contract from 2.0% to 78.0%. The final 21.0pp move to 99.0% on November 6 priced in the finality of this result.
Extreme volatility defined the preceding 48 hours. On Election Day, November 3, early returns indicating Brown was performing ahead of expectations caused a 14.0pp spike. This was followed by a sharp 54.0pp drop on November 4, which the available context identifies as a temporary market mispricing or anomaly during the resolution period, not a reaction to fundamental news. Prior to the election, the market adjusted to late-campaign information. A 9.0pp drop around October 30 reflected adjustments to final polling data that showed a narrowing race, making an outperformance of the aggregate less likely.
  • Yes: Brown won the 2026 election by 4.8 points, exceeding the RCP average.
  • Yes: Prediction markets showed earlier, higher confidence in Brown's victory.
  • Yes: Brown's campaign strategically emphasized economic security, opposing data center expansion.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 99.0% 99.4% Available data suggests Sherrod Brown is likely to outperform his current poll numbers.

Current Context

Forecasts indicated Brown would secure victory, surpassing poll aggregators and prediction market projections. Projections suggested he would win with approximately 50.0% of the vote against 45.2%, which would exceed the RCP benchmark margin of +2.8 by about 2.0 points [1][2][3]. This projected outcome carried medium confidence, as accessible sources presented differing final vote tallies [1][2][3]. The polling environment leading up to the election generally showed Brown ahead by 2-8 points, while aggregators indicated an approximate 3-point lead [1][4]. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, anticipated a stronger performance for Brown, assigning him a 70.3%-73% probability of winning, compared to Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) last forecast of 54% [5][6][7].
Brown's projected win was attributed to specific candidate strengths and national significance. Analysts attributed his forecasted overperformance to candidate-specific crossover appeal, citing his ability to outperform the Democratic presidential nominee, potential Trump-fatigue among voters, increased independent turnout, suburban gains, and a clear anti-data-center message [8][9]. The Ohio Senate race held national importance as a key Democratic pickup target in the fight for Senate control [10][11]. A projected Brown victory would flip the seat, which had been held by Husted following his appointment after J.D. Vance departed for the vice presidency [10][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Brown’s chances of beating Husted: What final Ohio polls shownewsweek.com
  2. 2Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3U.S. Senate – Ohio (special): 2026 election results | Movement Voter Projectmovement.vote
  4. 4The final polls are actually better than some Democrats...ms.now
  5. 5Ohio Senate race: Kalshi traders give Brown a 73% chance of a fourth termnews.kalshi.com
  6. 6Prediction markets, polls took different paths to the right answers in Ohio’s midterms | WOSU Public Mediawosu.org
  7. 72026 Ohio US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8MAGA's theory of the electorate on the line in Ohiothehill.com
  9. 9Sherrod Brown’s Polling Lead Defies Ohio’s Republican Shiftnewsweek.com
  10. 10United States Senate special election in Ohio, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Ohio 2026 election guide: What voters need to know about their ballots | WOSU Public Mediawosu.org
  12. 12Sherrod Brown wins Ohio 2026 Senate election, flipping seat for Democrats - CBS Newscbsnews.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 05, 2026: 76.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 78.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The 76.0 percentage point price spike on November 05, 2026, was primarily driven by the widespread confirmation that Sherrod Brown won the Ohio Senate special election with a margin exceeding the +2.8 polling baseline [1][2][3][4][5]. Social media activity played a significant role, with prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket projecting Brown's victory on X and other platforms before traditional news outlets confirmed the results [1]. This early dissemination of the outcome, quickly reinforced by major news coverage of Brown's 4.8-4.9 percentage point win, led to the market pricing near certainty [1][6][2]. Social media was a primary driver, providing early signals that accelerated the market's reaction to the election outcome.

📉 November 04, 2026: 54.0pp drop

Price decreased from 60.0% to 6.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The 54.0 percentage point drop in the "Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls?" market on November 4, 2026, was primarily a temporary market mispricing or anomaly, driven by significant volatility during the resolution period [7]. This steep decline in the "Yes" contract occurred despite Sherrod Brown winning the election with a 4.8 percentage point margin, exceeding the 2.8-point RealClearPolitics benchmark and thus confirming he did outperform the polls [4]. The market's rapid drop to 6% on November 4, followed by a swift rebound to 78% by November 5, suggests a short-lived misinterpretation of initial results by traders or liquidity-driven market structure factors, rather than a fundamental shift in outcome expectation [7]. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, as no specific posts or narratives contributing to this counter-factual price movement are indicated.

📈 November 03, 2026: 14.0pp spike

Price increased from 40.0% to 54.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point spike in the "Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls?" market on November 03, 2026, was the release of early election returns [8]. These initial results, becoming available throughout Election Day, indicated that Sherrod Brown was performing ahead of pre-election polling expectations [8][7]. This real-time data from traditional election reporting directly signaled an increased probability of him outperforming the polls, causing the market's "Yes" outcome to surge [8][7]. Social media was mostly noise in this instance, as analysis showed Brown lost the overall social media narrative despite winning the election, and no timely viral posts or key figure statements coincided with the market spike [9][10].

📉 October 30, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 48.0% to 39.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Yes" contract for "Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls?" around October 30, 2026, was the market's adjustment to final polling data showing Brown's margin of victory narrowing [11][7][12]. As polls indicated a tightening race, it became less likely that Brown's actual victory margin would exceed the +2.8 RCP average benchmark, leading to the decline in the 'Yes' contract [13][11][7][12]. Donald Trump's viral TikTok comments in the final week, claiming Jon Husted gained 12 points, also contributed by reinforcing the narrative of a narrowing lead for Brown [14]. Thus, social media was a contributing accelerant to the market movement, primarily driven by updated polling information.
Sources (14)
  1. 1Kalshi, Polymarket CEOs praise midterm forecasts amid pushbacknextpredict.io
  2. 2Ohio Senate Election Results 2026: Brown Wins (Race Called)poliwave.com
  3. 3U.S. Senate – Ohio (special): 2026 election results | Movement Voter Projectmovement.vote
  4. 4Democrat Sherrod Brown wins Ohio Senate race in major blow to Republicans | US midterm elections 2026 | The Guardiantheguardian.com
  5. 52026 United States Senate special election in Ohio - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Ohio Senate (special) — 2026 U.S. Senate | Runchey Researchruncheyresearch.com
  7. 7Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? — live oddselectionodds.live
  8. 8Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  9. 9Sherrod Brown Drops F-Bomb in Ad Against Jon Hustedmediaite.com
  10. 10Ohio US Elections 2026: Brown vs. Husted | Quidquid.com
  11. 11Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  12. 12Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls: oddsparlaythepeople.com
  13. 13Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  14. 14Ohio Senate Race: Trump Says Husted's Butt Got Him 12 Pointspolialert.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content:

1. YES resolution: The specific conditions that trigger a "YES" resolution for Sherrod Brown outperforming the polls are not detailed in the provided text. 2. NO resolution: The specific conditions that trigger a "NO" resolution for Sherrod Brown not outperforming the polls are not detailed in the provided text. 3. Key dates/deadlines: The maximum payout date for this market is November 9, 2027. 4. Special settlement conditions: No special settlement conditions are described in the provided text.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.99 $0.12 99%

Market Discussion

Sherrod Brown won the 2026 Ohio Senate special election with a 4.8-point margin, exceeding the RCP polling average margin of +2.8 points and confirming he outperformed the polls as defined by the market [1]. Prediction markets generally indicated Brown's stronger position earlier and more accurately, with the "outperform the polls" Yes contract on one platform surging to 78% by November 5, 2026, and correctly identifying the winner and often the margin in the race [2]. This performance diverged from some traditional polls, which understated Democratic victories, partly due to a significant shift towards Democrats in the Ohio Senate race compared to the 2024 presidential election [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1U.S. Senate – Ohio (special): 2026 election results | Movement Voter Projectmovement.vote
  2. 2Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls: oddsparlaythepeople.com
  3. 3Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 Live Results: Sherrod Brown Winsnbcnews.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score87Strong
Trade quality20% of score49High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
76Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Yes” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
61Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Yes61
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 12% vs realized 3%
Move quality
88Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract

Yes88
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Yes95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
49High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 61 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 5.5c slippage (~6% of a 93.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

YesPrimary61Market scoreLiquidity61Move quality88Rule clarity95
Why 61
Liquidity
61 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 12% vs realized 3%
Move quality
88 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 3d

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 6, 2026

6. What evidence from the 2026 cycle supports the narrative of Sherrod Brown's unique crossover appeal with Ohio's independent and Republican-leaning voters?

Republican Support for Brown11% [1][2][3]
Brown's Final Victory Marginapproximately 4.8 points [4][5][3][6]
Brown's Small Donor Fundraising Share35% of $38.6 million [4]
Sherrod Brown secured victory through unique crossover appeal in the 2026 Ohio Senate race. He garnered significant support from Republican voters, approximately 11%, and won about two-thirds of moderates [1][2][3]. This broad appeal allowed him to surpass pre-election polling predictions, achieving a final margin of victory of approximately 4.8 points, notably higher than the Real Clear Polling average of +2.8 points [4][5][3][6].
Brown's populist message resonated with a diverse electorate across Ohio. His brand appealed to independents, union households, and rural voters [7]. Brown effectively leveraged voter concerns about data centers, a significant issue for many, and benefited from the president's tariffs and trade policies, which contributed to rising fuel prices [7][2]. Fox News polling indicated that voters who felt financially worse off favored Brown by a 49-point margin [8]. Furthermore, Brown maintained a notable favorability advantage over his opponent, Husted, and the declining approval of former President Trump presented a vulnerability for Republicans [2][9].
Strategic demographic gains and grassroots efforts defined Brown's campaign strategy. He saw substantial improvements in performance among young voters compared to 2024, in addition to making significant gains among moderates, lower-income voters, and women [2]. His grassroots engagement was further underscored by his fundraising, with 35% of his $38.6 million total coming from small donors, a considerably higher proportion than Husted's 14% of $19.2 million [4]. County-level shifts also demonstrated his expanded reach, with Franklin County moving 14 points and Lorain County 17 points more Democratic relative to 2024 presidential margins [4][5].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Ohio's 2026 Senate race: What to know about Sherrod...google.com
  2. 2Sherrod Brown flips Senate seat in Ohio for Democratsapnews.com
  3. 3Ohio 2026 election resultsgoogle.com
  4. 4Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  5. 5Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election Resultsnytimes.com
  6. 6Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? Odds | Kalshipredictmarketcap.com
  7. 7Sherrod Brown's Polling Lead Defies Ohio's Republican Shiftnewsweek.com
  8. 8Brown's chances of beating Husted: What final Ohio polls...newsweek.com
  9. 9Half of Ohio voters 'strongly disapprove' of Trump as Brown...yahoo.com

7. How did the final forecasts from prediction markets like Kalshi differ from model-based forecasts like DDHQ for the 2026 Ohio Senate race?

DDHQ Final Win Probability54% (Sherrod Brown) [1][2]
Kalshi Peak Win Probability70.3% (Sherrod Brown on November 1, 2026) [3]
Election OutcomeSherrod Brown won (November 3, 2026) [4][5]
Prediction markets generally showed higher and earlier confidence in Sherrod Brown's ultimate victory in the 2026 Ohio Senate special election. Sherrod Brown won the election on November 3, 2026, defeating incumbent Republican Senator Jon Husted [4][5]. Prior to the election, prediction market forecasts from Kalshi consistently showed greater and earlier confidence in Brown's win probability compared to model-based forecasts such as DDHQ [3]. While both forecasting approaches ultimately predicted the correct outcomes in Ohio's major races, prediction markets demonstrated earlier confidence in the eventual winners [3].
Kalshi's forecast for Brown consistently outpaced DDHQ's projections as the election approached. DDHQ's final forecast for the Ohio Senate race assigned Sherrod Brown a 54% win probability and projected a vote share of approximately 52%, classifying the race as a 'Toss Up' and 'Potential Flip' [1][2]. DDHQ never had Brown's chances higher than 57% between September 10 and November 1, 2026 [3]. In contrast, Kalshi's win probability for Brown reached 70.3% on November 1, 2026, which marked an increase of almost 20 points from September 10 [3]. On Election Day, November 3, 2026, a specific Kalshi market, 'Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls?', showed a 99% chance ('99\u00a2') for 'Yes', using the Real Clear Polling average as its benchmark [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1IGR: Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted 54% to 46% in Ohio...google.com
  2. 22026 Ohio US Senate Special General Election Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3Prediction markets, polls took different paths to the right...wvxu.org
  4. 4Election results, 2026: U.S. Senategoogle.com
  5. 5Ohio Senate winner? Prediction Market Results - Public.compublic.com
  6. 6Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com

8. What key campaign events or strategic shifts occurred in October 2026 that could have impacted the final polling margins for Brown and Husted?

RCP Average (Oct 9-22)Brown +3.3 (48.2% to 44.9%) [1]
Broader Polling Average (Nov 1)Brown +5.6 (50.2% to 44.6%) [2]
Prediction Market RCP BenchmarkBrown +2.8 [2]
Senator Brown's campaign strategically emphasized economic security in October 2026. The campaign framed opponent Husted as the "face of datacenters," integrating concerns about AI and job displacement into a broader pro-worker message [3]. This strategy aimed to rebuild a coalition of working-class voters and anti-Trump college graduates, particularly targeting industrial northeastern Ohio and the Mahoning Valley, a focus underscored by an October 17 event held in Toledo [4]. By late October, both campaigns shifted their strategic focus to county-level turnout and geographic targeting, moving beyond solely statewide persuasion efforts [5].
Polling data indicated a strengthening position for Senator Brown during late October. The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average from October 9–22 showed Brown leading with 48.2% to Husted's 44.9%, a margin of 3.3 points [1]. Subsequent late polls, conducted from October 21–November 1, generally continued to show Brown ahead in most surveys, although some polls, such as Emerson, reported Husted leading, and ActiVote indicated a tied race [6]. The broader polling average, updated on November 1, placed Brown at 50.2% and Husted at 44.6%, reflecting a 5.6-point lead for Brown. This suggested a more favorable polling environment for Brown in late October compared to the prediction market's RCP benchmark of Brown +2.8 [2].
Sources (6)
  1. 12026 Ohio Senate Special Election - Husted vs. Brownrealclearpolling.com
  2. 2Ohio Senate polls 2026: Brown vs Husted polling averageonpointpolitics.us
  3. 3'System is rigged': Democrat Sherrod Brown puts...google.com
  4. 4The 2026 Election That Matters Most of Allpolitico.com
  5. 5Kornacki: The counties that could determine a Brown or...nbcnews.com
  6. 6Ohio U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com

9. What were the final, certified vote totals for the 2026 Ohio Senate election, and what was the final polling average from RealClearPolitics?

RealClearPolitics Brown Lead+2.8 points [1]
Reported Sherrod Brown Votes2,024,135 [2]
Reported Jon Husted Votes1,935,052 [2]
RealClearPolitics polling average indicated Sherrod Brown led Jon Husted. The final polling average for the 2026 Ohio Senate election, fixed at 10 a.m. ET on November 3, 2026, reported Sherrod Brown with 48.5% and Jon Husted with 45.7%. This reflected a lead of +2.8 points for Brown [1].
Preliminary election results indicate a narrower lead for Sherrod Brown. Reported Ohio Senate totals show Sherrod Brown received 2,024,135 votes, while Jon Husted received 1,935,052 votes. This resulted in a reported Brown-Husted vote-share gap of approximately +2.1 points. This vote-share gap is below the +2.8 point RealClearPolitics benchmark, suggesting that the "outperform" market resolves as No [2][1].
Official certification of the Ohio Senate election results is pending. Ohio’s official election-results portal cautions that results remain unofficial until certified by the Secretary of State. The official canvass is generally completed around three weeks following the election [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2United States Senate special election in Ohio, 2026ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Ohio Decides - Election Night Reportingliveresults.ohiosos.gov

10. How did Sherrod Brown's and Jon Husted's platforms on data center development in Ohio compare during the 2026 campaign?

Alleged Tax Incentives$2.5 billion for data centers (Sherrod Brown claim) [1][2][3][4]
Husted's Proposed BillRatepayer Protection Act (aimed to make data centers cover energy costs) [1][5][3][6]
Brown's Description of Husted"the face of data centers" in Ohio [1][7][2][8][9][4]
During the 2026 campaign, Sherrod Brown strongly opposed unchecked data center expansion, making it a key campaign issue. He frequently referred to Jon Husted as "the face of data centers" in Ohio [1][7][2][8][9][5][6][4]. Brown criticized Husted for allegedly providing $2.5 billion in tax incentives to these facilities during his time as Lieutenant Governor [1][2][3][4]. He further argued that data centers consume vast amounts of land and water, leading to increased electricity prices for Ohio residents. Brown emphasized that Ohioans should not be forced to subsidize these costs and asserted their right to decide if data centers are built in their communities [2][3][10][5].
Jon Husted defended data center development, advocating for local control and energy cost coverage. Having actively promoted data center growth as Lieutenant Governor, Husted maintained that their development was appropriate when desired by communities and accompanied by suitable regulations [1][7][2][8][9][5][6]. He countered Brown's criticisms by accusing him of hypocrisy, claiming Brown had "celebrated data centers" previously [1][6][11]. Husted supported the Ratepayer Protection Act, a bill intended to require state utility regulators to ensure data centers covered their own energy costs, thereby preventing consumers from bearing the burden. While this bill passed the House, it was subsequently blocked by Democrats in the Senate, who deemed it "toothless" [1][5][3][6]. Husted also stressed that local authorities and citizens should ultimately determine whether data centers are permitted in their areas [6][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1statenews.org
  2. 2theguardian.com
  3. 3washingtonpost.com
  4. 4wvxu.org
  5. 5insideclimatenews.org
  6. 610tv.com
  7. 7theguardian.com
  8. 8kpbs.org
  9. 9cbsnews.com
  10. 10politicopro.comsubscriber.politicopro.com
  11. 11youtube.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Sherrod Brown won the 2026 Ohio Senate special election with 50.0% (2,301,042 votes) to Jon Husted's 45.2% (2,077,748 votes), a 4.8 percentage point margin, as called by AP at 11:10 PM ET on November 3, 2026 [1][2][3]. Brown's certified margin of +4.8 points exceeded the RCP average of +2.8 points at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026, leading the Kalshi market 'Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls?' to resolve YES [4][1]. Final polling averages across RCP (+2.8), Silver Bulletin (+3.0), PollingSource (+3.0), Pollsmax (+2.7), and Pollytic (+2.9) underestimated Brown's actual margin by approximately 2.0 points [5][6][7][8]. As of November 5, 2026, Kalshi priced YES at 78% [4].
Brown's win probability on Kalshi increased from 51.1% on September 10 to 70.3% on November 1, while DDHQ never had Brown above 57% [9]. This race shifted 16.06 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election [10]. Brown's victory flipped a crucial Senate seat for Democrats, expanding their chamber control [11][12]. The contest drew over $500 million in total aired ad spending and future reservations [13][14]. Brown raised $38.6M, with 35% from small donors, against Husted's $19.2M, with 14% from small donors [13]. Over 1.7 million Ohioans voted before Election Day, setting a new early-voting record for a governor's year [15][16].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 10, 2027
  • Closes: November 10, 2027
Sources (16)
  1. 1U.S. Senate – Ohio (special): 2026 election results | Movement Voter Projectmovement.vote
  2. 2Ohio Senate Election Results 2026: Brown Wins (Race Called)poliwave.com
  3. 32026 United States Senate special election in Ohio - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  5. 5Brown’s chances of beating Husted: What final Ohio polls shownewsweek.com
  6. 6Ohio Senate Race 2026 | PollingSourcepollingsource.com
  7. 72026 Ohio Senate Polls | Polling Average & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  8. 82026 United States Senate special election in Ohio Polls: Final Polls & Polling Average | Pollyticpollytic.net
  9. 9Prediction markets, polls took different paths to the right answers in Ohio’s midterms | WOSU Public Mediawosu.org
  10. 10Ohio U.S. Senate Special Election 2026 Live Results: Sherrod Brown Winsnbcnews.com
  11. 11Live Results: Sherrod Brown wins Senate race in Ohio | PBS Newspbs.org
  12. 122026 Ohio General Election Results and Analysis | Bricker Graydon Wyattbricker.com
  13. 13Will Sherrod Brown outperform the polls? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  14. 14Ohio Senate race: Kalshi traders give Brown a 73% chance of a fourth termnews.kalshi.com
  15. 15Ohio Senate 2026 Odds: Brown vs Husted Special Election | Prediction Geniuspredictiongenius.io
  16. 16Ohio Elections Results: Amy Acton Elected Governor. Sherrod Brown Wins. Issue 3 Passesclevelandmagazine.com

13. Related News

+76.0pp
Last updated: November 6, 2026, 12:37 UTC

Brown's Ohio Win Pushes Poll Outperformance Odds to 99%

Democrat Sherrod Brown's victory in the Ohio Senate special election on November 3, 2026, has pushed prediction market odds for him outperforming pre-election polling averages to near certainty. In th...