Will the NPVIC reach 270 electoral votes?

Michigan's NPVIC bill, HB 4156, passed the House but lacks priority. In Michigan, House Bill 4156, which proposes joining the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC), has advanced through and passed the House of Representatives ^[1]. However, the provided research does not explicitly detail a stated priority level for its passage from Governor Gretchen Whitmer or specific legislative leaders before the end of the 2025 session ^[1].

Minnesota enacted NPVIC legislation; Nevada's efforts stalled. Minnesota has already enacted legislation (HF 1395) to join the NPVIC, making it the 16th jurisdiction to do so ^[2]. As the compact is already law in Minnesota, the question of its current priority level for passage before the end of the 2025 session is no longer applicable. Conversely, attempts to pass NPVIC legislation in Nevada, such as Assembly Joint Resolution 6A (AJR6A) ^[4], have failed ^[3]. The Nevada Legislature will not pass a National Popular Vote plan bill during the current year, 2025 ^[5], indicating that the NPVIC lacks sufficient support for advancement or is not a legislative priority in the ongoing session.

Pro-NPVIC groups target key legislative chambers to secure electoral votes. Organizations supporting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) aim to accumulate 270 electoral votes for the compact to become effective, having currently secured 205 electoral votes from 16 states and the District of Columbia ^[1]. To advance this objective, these groups often align with efforts to establish Democratic trifectas in states that have not yet joined the compact. For the 2024 and 2026 election cycles, key Republican-controlled state legislative chambers targeted for a flip to Democratic control include the Arizona House, Arizona Senate, New Hampshire House, Wisconsin Assembly, and Wisconsin Senate ^[2]. Other chambers, such as the Georgia House and Senate, and North Carolina House and Senate, are identified as more challenging "Deep Red" targets ^[3].

Targeted chambers are highly competitive with significant financial backing. Current election forecasts indicate that the Arizona House and Arizona Senate are expected to feature "closely contested legislative elections" and are among the "most competitive" state legislative chambers in 2026 ^[2]. The New Hampshire House is also considered a "challenging target" for Democrats but remains competitive ^[2]. In Wisconsin, both the Assembly and Senate chambers are viewed as competitive, with the Assembly particularly so ^[2]. While specific fundraising differentials for individual chambers are not detailed in the available research, both the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) and the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) have announced substantial investments and expanded target maps for the 2026 cycle, signaling significant financial commitment to these state legislative races ^[4].

Opponents, including groups like the Federalist Society, primarily challenge the NPVIC under the Compact Clause. They contend that the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) fundamentally alters the presidential election process, constituting a "combination among the states" that circumvents the Electoral College without congressional consent ^[1]. This perspective suggests that the Compact diminishes individual state sovereignty, usurps federal authority over elections, and creates a de facto national government for presidential elections by binding member states to a national popular vote outcome. This shift in electoral power is seen as infringing upon the interests of non-compacting states and the federal structure ^[1].

Beyond the Compact Clause, opponents raise additional constitutional arguments against the NPVIC. They argue it violates Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution, which grants state legislatures power to appoint electors "in such manner as the Legislature thereof may direct" ^[2]. The argument posits that the Compact unconstitutionally delegates this legislative power, as the collective actions of other states would determine how a member state's electors cast their votes, rather than an independent choice by its own legislature ^[2]. Further concerns include potential violations of the Fourteenth Amendment's "one person, one vote" principle, due process, and equal protection, especially if a state's electoral votes are cast for a candidate not chosen by its own voters ^[2].

Constitutional law scholars hold a divided legal consensus on the NPVIC's constitutionality. Among scholars who have published on the topic in the last five years, some support opponents, asserting the NPVIC clearly violates the Compact Clause due to its significant impact on federalism and election mechanics, thus requiring congressional consent ^[1]. Conversely, a substantial number of scholars argue the NPVIC does not violate the Compact Clause because it does not enhance the power of compacting states relative to the federal government or encroach on federal authority in a way that necessitates congressional consent ^[2]. These scholars often maintain that the Compact represents a legitimate exercise of state legislative power under Article II, Section 1 ^[3]. The ongoing debate highlights fundamental disagreements over interpreting the Compact Clause and the boundaries of state legislative action within the constitutional framework ^[2].

Virginia joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Virginia added its 13 electoral votes to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) ^[1]. This agreement among states pledges to award their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote, becoming effective once states totaling 270 electoral votes join ^[4]. Currently, the Compact includes 16 states and the District of Columbia, collectively holding 196 electoral votes ^[2].

Pennsylvania and Arizona introduced bills related to national popular vote. In Pennsylvania, the National Popular Vote Act was introduced in 2023 as House Bill 1481 and Senate Bill 980 ^[3]. Similarly, Arizona has seen legislative proposals concerning the NPVIC, including HB2806 during the 2023-2024 session and HB4013 in the 2024-2025 session ^[5].

Research lacks specific legislator positions or concerns about impacts. The provided research, however, does not contain information regarding the publicly stated positions of individual moderate Democratic legislators in the Republican-controlled chambers of Pennsylvania or Arizona. Furthermore, there is no evidence indicating that any legislators are withholding support for such measures due to concerns over down-ballot race impacts.

Michigan officially joined the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) in February 2023, contributing its 15 electoral votes after Governor Gretchen Whitmer signed related legislation into law ^[3]. Although a direct voter initiative aiming to enact the compact for the 2024 ballot was proposed, it ultimately did not qualify due to an insufficient number of signatures ^[4]. Despite the failure of the ballot initiative, polling data from May 2024 indicates that 66% of Michigan residents support a national popular vote for president ^[1].

In Arizona, efforts to adopt the NPVIC have primarily occurred through legislative channels, with House Bill 4013 and Senate Bill 1300 introduced in 2024 ^[5]. However, these bills have not advanced beyond committee referrals, and there is currently no record of an actively qualifying direct ballot initiative for the NPVIC in the state ^[5]. Notwithstanding the lack of legislative progress, a May 2024 poll shows significant public support, with 64% of Arizonans favoring a national popular vote for president ^[1].

Nationally, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has been enacted by 16 states and the District of Columbia, collectively contributing 205 electoral votes toward the 270 required for the compact to take effect ^[2]. Broad public opinion research consistently underscores widespread support for a national popular vote for president. A Pew poll, for instance, found that 63% of American adults support either a constitutional amendment or the NPVIC specifically ^[6], with state-level polls frequently showing support exceeding 70% in numerous states ^[7].