Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Karen Bass to win the Los Angeles Mayoral election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has demonstrated notable stability, trading within a tight 6-point range between 61.0% and 67.0% since its inception. The current price of 62.0% is nearly unchanged from its starting point, establishing a clear sideways trend. This lack of significant price movement suggests that recent developments, such as the confirmation of a November runoff, were largely anticipated by market participants and did not introduce new information sufficient to alter the baseline forecast. The price action indicates a consistent market expectation for the outcome.
Trading volume has been substantial, totaling over 2.3 million contracts. The concentration of high volume within this narrow price channel points to a strongly held equilibrium. Instead of sharp price discovery, the volume suggests significant liquidity and conviction from participants on both sides of the trade around the low-60s probability level. The market has established firm support near 61.0% and resistance at 67.0%, with the price consistently reverting to the middle of this band.
Overall, the chart reflects a mature market with a stable consensus. The sentiment has been consistently pricing a "YES" outcome at a probability of approximately 62-63%. The absence of volatility, coupled with high volume, indicates that the current price reflects the market's durable assessment of the political fundamentals of the race, pending a significant, unexpected catalyst.
  • Since last update (~105d): Karen Bass's probability surged +38.1pp as the model led, widening the edge.
  • Spencer Pratt's outcome resolved to no, removing -18.3pp from the model.
  • Nithya Raman's market probability fell -19.0pp, compressing the edge as market led.
  • The confidence score in the market's pricing increased by +1.0pp.
  • Karen Bass secured significant fundraising and a higher primary vote share. Bass's campaign highlights her record despite precedent of incumbent runoff defeat.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Nithya Raman 38.0% 34.1% Nithya Raman benefits from the precedent of an incumbent mayor losing a runoff election.
Karen Bass 62.0% 65.9% Karen Bass secured more primary votes and raised significantly more campaign funds than Raman.

Current Context

The Los Angeles mayoral election proceeds to a November runoff. The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is ongoing, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4]. No winner has been declared [1][2][3][4]. The nonpartisan primary election, held on June 2, 2026, advanced incumbent Karen Bass and City Council member Nithya Raman to the runoff [1][5][3][6][7]. Bass received 34.3% of the vote, and Raman secured 29.0%, as neither candidate attained more than 50% [1][5][3][6][7]. Republican candidate Spencer Pratt was eliminated after finishing third with 25.5% of the vote [1][8][3]. This marks the first instance since 2005 that an incumbent Los Angeles mayor has faced a runoff election [6][7].
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass faces Nithya Raman in the general election. Karen Bass remains the 43rd and current Mayor of Los Angeles, campaigning for reelection [9][10]. She and Nithya Raman are the candidates for the November 3 general election [6][7].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2Nithya Raman advances over Spencer Pratt to face L.A. Mayor Karen Bass in a runoffnbcnews.com
  3. 32026 Los Angeles mayoral electionen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Mayoral election in Los Angeles, California (2026)ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Los Angeles Mayor Primary 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  6. 6Incumbent Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in L.A. mayoral runoff, a first for an incumbent since 2005 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7LA Mayor Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in Nov. 3 general election, becoming first incumbent to face a runoff since 2005 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Spencer Pratt out of LA mayor race as left-wing rival Nithya...bbc.com
  9. 9Mayor | City of Los Angeleslacity.gov
  10. 10About Mayor Karen Bass | Mayor Karen Bassmayor.lacity.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

A "Yes" contract for a specific candidate resolves to YES if that candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election, and to NO if they do not. The market begins on November 3, 8:00 am EST, with a maximum payout date of June 2, 2027. No special settlement conditions are explicitly mentioned in the provided information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Karen Bass $0.62 $0.39 62%
Nithya Raman $0.38 $0.63 38%

Market Discussion

As of August 11, 2026, incumbent Karen Bass, the current Mayor of Los Angeles, and city councilmember Nithya Raman advanced from the June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary election to the general election runoff, which is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. As of August 2026, prediction markets consistently favor incumbent Karen Bass to win the upcoming November runoff, with implied probabilities for her victory typically ranging between 62% and 66% [2].

Sources (2)
  1. 1Mayor | City of Los Angeleslacity.gov
  2. 2Los Angeles Mayoral Election Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 89 Strong
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score92Strong
Trade quality20% of score75Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 11% of the price to slippage.

Trust score89Strong

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
89Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
87Deep

Size fills near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Karen Bass87
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.8% of price over 17 traded bars

24h traded notional $37,468 · 24h
Nithya Raman87
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.3% of price over 17 traded bars

24h traded notional $92,844 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Karen Bass—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Nithya Raman—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Karen Bass100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Nithya Raman100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
75Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 87 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.5c slippage (~3% of a 49.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.6c slippage (~3% of a 49.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 5.3c slippage (~11% of a 49.5c contract)

Karen Bass87Market scoreLiquidity87Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 87
Liquidity
87 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.8% of price over 17 traded bars

24h traded notional $37,468 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Nithya Raman87Market scoreLiquidity87Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 87
Liquidity
87 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.3% of price over 17 traded bars

24h traded notional $92,844 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What do the latest campaign finance disclosures reveal about the fundraising strengths and spending priorities of Karen Bass versus Nithya Raman ahead of the runoff?

Karen Bass Funds Raised (June 2026)$510,000 [1][2]
Nithya Raman Funds Raised (June 2026)$170,000 [1][2]
Independent Expenditure Support for Bass (Primary)Over $2.5 million [1]
Karen Bass significantly outraised Nithya Raman ahead of the runoff. During the June 2026 reporting period, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass demonstrated stronger fundraising capabilities, collecting $510,000 compared to challenger Nithya Raman's $170,000 [1][2]. With publicly funded matching funds, Bass's total campaign funds exceeded $1.1 million, while Raman's stood at just under $750,000 [1]. Additionally, independent expenditure groups spent over $2.5 million supporting Bass and $1.2 million opposing Raman during the primary election, with only $88,000 spent in support of Raman [1]. In the primary election, Bass secured 34.3% of the vote, and Raman received 29.0%, setting the stage for their runoff on November 3, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7].
Campaign finance disclosures do not detail specific spending priorities. The latest campaign finance reports primarily highlight fundraising strengths and do not explicitly detail the spending priorities for either campaign [1]. However, Mayor Bass is campaigning on her first-term achievements, which include reductions in street homelessness and crime, and housing development [6][8]. Challenger Raman, conversely, is campaigning as an agent of change, criticizing Bass's handling of the city's financial crisis and infrastructure, and alleging [1].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Bass, Raman file latest campaign finance reports in...latimes.com
  2. 2Karen Bass outpaces Nithya Raman in campaign fundraisingnbclosangeles.com
  3. 3How Nithya Raman went from last-minute candidate to the...latimes.com
  4. 4Nithya Raman advances over Spencer Pratt to face L.A....nbcnews.com
  5. 5Spencer Pratt out of LA mayor race as left-wing rival Nithya...bbc.com
  6. 6Incumbent Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in L.A....news.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7LA Mayor Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in Nov. 3...news.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Housing, homelessness divide top LA mayoral candidates ahead of June 2 primary - read their survey responses below - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

6. What potential campaign events or external factors between now and November 3, 2026, could act as significant catalysts to shift momentum in the Bass-Raman runoff?

Bass primary vote share34% [1][2]
Raman primary vote share29% [1][2]
Spencer Pratt primary vote share26% [1][2]
Key campaign issues and ideological differences will drive momentum in the Bass-Raman runoff. Significant factors include homelessness and encampment management, police department funding and hiring, housing construction policies, and the broader economy and job market [3][4][5]. Further identified issues encompass housing affordability and supply, public safety and infrastructure, and the influence of special interests versus urgent city governance [1][2]. Both candidates frame the election as a choice between their competing ideologies, with challenger Raman criticizing incumbent Bass for maintaining status quo politics [4][5][1][2].
Winning over Latino voters and primary supporters is crucial for shifting momentum. Capturing the Latino electorate is a particularly important factor, especially given that Bass demonstrated broader support in Latino-majority neighborhoods during the primary election [6]. The primary also underscored the importance of securing votes from supporters of eliminated candidates, as incumbent Bass received 34% of the vote, Raman 29%, and third-place finisher Spencer Pratt 26% [1][2]. These primary results highlight the significance of appealing to voters who initially supported other candidates in this Democrat-versus-Democrat matchup [7][8][4][1][2].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Incumbent Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in L.A....news.ballotpedia.org
  2. 2LA Mayor Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in Nov. 3 general election, becoming first incumbent to face a runoff since 2005 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3Karen Bass slams Nithya Raman over homeless...thehill.com
  4. 4Pratt out, Raman in: What LA can expect in the mayoral racecalmatters.org
  5. 5Progressive Nithya Raman advances to November runoff...pbs.org
  6. 6Bass carried more Latino neighborhoods than Raman and...latimes.com
  7. 7Why the L.A. mayoral runoff is about to be a 'knife fight'latimes.com
  8. 8Nithya Raman advances over Spencer Pratt to face L.A....nbcnews.com

7. What precedent does the 2005 Los Angeles mayoral runoff—the last time an incumbent faced a runoff—set for Karen Bass's reelection campaign?

Karen Bass Primary Vote34% [1][2]
Nithya Raman Primary Vote29% [1][2]
Karen Bass Election Probability62-65% [3][4][5][6][7]
The 2005 Los Angeles mayoral runoff established a precedent for incumbent defeat. Current Mayor Karen Bass is the first sitting mayor since 2005 to face a runoff election [8]. The 2005 election saw incumbent James Hahn defeated by Antonio Villaraigosa, demonstrating that an incumbent can be unseated under such circumstances [8][1][2].
Karen Bass failed to secure a majority in the 2026 primary. In the June 2, 2026, primary election, Bass received 34% of the vote, falling short of the required majority [1][2][9][10][11]. This outcome necessitates a runoff election against Nithya Raman, who garnered 29% of the primary votes, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][9][10][11]. Spencer Pratt received 26% of the vote in the primary election [1][2].
Karen Bass is currently favored to win the general election. As of August 11, 2026, prediction markets suggest Bass is the favored candidate [3][4][5][6][7]. Her implied winning probabilities typically fall between 62% and 65%, while Nithya Raman's probabilities range from 35% to 38% [3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Incumbent Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in L.A....news.ballotpedia.org
  2. 2LA Mayor Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in Nov. 3...news.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3LA Mayoral Election Odds 2026: Bass vs Raman Prediction Market Newscovers.com
  4. 4Los Angeles Mayor winner - Prediction Marketsrobinhood.com
  5. 5Los Angeles Mayor winner? — Compare Odds on 3 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 62026 Los Angeles Mayor Election Race | Polls, Candidates & Oddspredictionedge.com
  7. 7Los Angeles Mayor Winner? — odds compared across every prediction market · Predictions Networkthebestpredictionmarkets.com
  8. 82005 Los Angeles mayoral electionen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9Why Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass Has to Fight for Her Jobnytimes.com
  10. 10Mayoral election in Los Angeles, California (2026)ballotpedia.org
  11. 11LA Mayor Odds 2026: Bass Vs Raman Model Verdict | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com

8. Which public polling firms have the most accurate track records in recent Los Angeles municipal elections, and what is their release schedule for the Bass-Raman runoff?

Runoff Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2][3]
Primary Election DateJune 2, 2026 [4][5]
Incumbent in runoff since2005 [4]
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral runoff is set for November 3. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass will face City Councilmember Nithya Raman in this general election, following a June 2, 2026, nonpartisan primary where no candidate achieved the 50% threshold [4][5][1][2][3]. Notably, Mayor Bass is the first incumbent Los Angeles mayor to participate in a runoff election since 2005 [4]. As of August 11, 2026, publicly available information does not identify specific polling firms with established track records of high accuracy in recent Los Angeles municipal elections, nor is there a standardized release schedule for polls concerning the upcoming Bass-Raman runoff [4][5][6].
Several prominent firms conduct polls in Los Angeles elections. Despite the absence of a defined public schedule for the November runoff, institutions such as the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS), the Loyola Marymount University (LMU) Center for the Study of Los Angeles, and the USC Dornsife College (which partners with the LA Times) are active in the municipal polling landscape [2][7]. The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll and UC Berkeley IGS are frequently recognized for their rigorous methodology within California [2][7][8][9]. Conversely, the LMU poll has drawn scrutiny regarding its methodology and has produced what have been described as "controversial" results in recent election cycles [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Los Angeles Mayor Primary 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
  2. 22026 Los Angeles mayoral electionen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Spencer Pratt out of LA mayor race as left-wing rival Nithya...bbc.com
  4. 4Incumbent Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in L.A....news.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5LA Mayor Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in Nov. 3 general election, becoming first incumbent to face a runoff since 2005 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt locked in tight race to make...ap.org
  7. 7Raman's LA Mayor Win Odds Fall 30 Points to 20% | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
  8. 8Silver Bulletin pollster ratings, January 2026 updatenatesilver.net
  9. 9Are Polls Reliable?blueprint.ucla.edu

9. How do Karen Bass's and Nithya Raman's proposed policies on homelessness and public safety compare, and which candidate's platform is resonating more with key voter blocs?

Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1]
Bass Win Probability62-64% [1]
Raman Win Probability36-38% [1]
Mayor Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman present contrasting policy approaches for Los Angeles. Incumbent Bass campaigns on a platform emphasizing order, police enforcement, and her 'Inside Safe' initiative, which she credits with a 17.5% reduction in street homelessness, decreased crime rates, and accelerated housing development [1][2][3][4]. In contrast, progressive challenger Raman advocates for systemic changes focusing on mental health, supportive services, and expanded affordable housing to address the root causes of homelessness [1][5][6][7]. Raman criticizes Bass's administration as a "broken status quo," arguing for more urgent, structural changes to address homelessness and civic dysfunction [1][7][8][2][3][4].
The 2026 mayoral election highlights evolving political influence in Los Angeles. Scheduled for November 3, 2026, the general election is described as a potential referendum on the city’s political landscape [1][9][8][2][3][4]. Prediction markets currently favor Bass, indicating an approximate 62-64% implied probability of winning, compared to Raman's 36-38% [1][9][8]. Bass continues to draw support from traditional business and police interests, while Raman garners backing from progressive groups like the Democratic Socialists of America [2][3][4].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Nithya Raman says she's facing political punishment for...nbclosangeles.com
  2. 2Incumbent Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in L.A. mayoral runoff, a first for an incumbent since 2005 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  3. 3LA Mayor Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in Nov. 3 general election, becoming first incumbent to face a runoff since 2005 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Incumbent Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt, Nithya Raman, and 13 others running in nonpartisan primary for mayor of Los Angeles - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Opinion | LA's homelessness uptick lets Raman target Bass...calmatters.org
  6. 6LA’s Broken City: Bass vs. 2 Outsiderseurweb.com
  7. 7Nithya Raman edges out Spencer Pratt to face Karen Bass...theguardian.com
  8. 8LA Mayoral Election Odds 2026: Bass vs Raman Prediction Market Newscovers.com
  9. 9Nithya Ramanen.wikipedia.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Prediction markets for US elections react to high-quality state-level polling, debate performances, candidate endorsements, legal developments, campaign finance reports, and economic data such as inflation and unemployment [1]. Key dates for the 2026 US midterm cycle include primary dates through September 2026 and the general election on November 3, 2026 [2]. Poll aggregates and prediction market data continuously fluctuate based on these events [3][4].
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is ongoing, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [5][6][7][8]. Following the nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and City Council member Nithya Raman advanced to a runoff election on November 3, 2026 [9][10][5][6][7]. This marks the first time since 2005 that a sitting Los Angeles mayor has been forced into a runoff election [6][7]. In the primary, Bass received 34% of the vote, Raman received 29%, and Republican candidate Spencer Pratt received 26% [6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 02, 2027
  • Closes: June 02, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1Election Prediction Markets 2026: How to Trade | TradeAlgotradealgo.com
  2. 2Which party will win the House in 2026 Odds & Prediction Market Analysis | CryptoSlatecryptoslate.com
  3. 32026 Midterm Elections Tracker: Live Markets vs. Pollsactionnetwork.com
  4. 4Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Odds & Prediction...cryptoslate.com
  5. 5Mayoral election in Los Angeles, California (2026)ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Incumbent Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in L.A. mayoral runoff, a first for an incumbent since 2005 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7LA Mayor Karen Bass to face Nithya Raman in Nov. 3 general election, becoming first incumbent to face a runoff since 2005 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  8. 8United States mayoral elections, 2026ballotpedia.org
  9. 92026 Los Angeles mayoral electionen.wikipedia.org
  10. 10Nithya Raman advances to November runoff against Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass | AP Newsapnews.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 8 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXMAYORLA-26-AMIL: NO (Jun 09, 2026)
  • KXMAYORLA-26-ABEU: NO (Jun 09, 2026)
  • KXMAYORLA-26-SPRA: NO (Jun 08, 2026)
  • KXMAYORLA-26-RHUA: NO (Jun 09, 2026)
  • KXMAYORLA-26-VWAL: NO (Jun 09, 2026)