Alaska Governor margin of victory

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds a significant lead in Alaska's gubernatorial race. As of November 4, 2026, with 211,337 total votes counted, Kreiss-Tomkins (D) has 103,837 votes (49.13%) against Bernadette Wilson (R) with 61,734 votes (29.21%), Dave Bronson (R) with 30,003 votes (14.20%), and Treg Taylor (R) with 15,763 votes (7.46%) ^{[1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]}. Ranked-choice voting (RCV) analysis by Alaska News projects Kreiss-Tomkins will reach approximately 50.8% after Taylor's elimination and about 55% in a final round against Wilson, indicating a lead of roughly 20,000 votes ^[1]. This outcome is expected despite a Republican strategy to split the vote, as Republican voters are reportedly not ranking in sufficient numbers for a GOP candidate to win through RCV tabulation ^[10][11][12]. Jim Lottsfeldt, an expert, anticipates Kreiss-Tomkins will win outright before RCV tabulation ^[10].

Prediction markets strongly indicate a Kreiss-Tomkins victory in the Alaska Governor race. As of November 7, 2026, Kreiss-Tomkins shows odds of 99% on Kalshi (1.3 million contracts), over 99% on Polymarket ($1.9 million), and 99% on PredictIt ^{[13][3][14][15]}. Pre-poll-closing odds also favored him, standing at 87% (Kalshi), 88% (Polymarket), and 93% (PredictIt) ^{[13][3][14][15]}. This election represents a notable political shift in Alaska, contrasting with the 2022 governor's race (R+26.1) and 2024 presidential race (R+13.1); the 2026 governor's race currently shows a D+20 margin according to a New York Times analysis ^[3][4][14]. If victorious, Kreiss-Tomkins would be the state's first Democratic governor since Tony Knowles (who left office in 2002) and, at 37, the youngest governor in state history ^{[10][1][13][3][12][16]}.

Final election results await further vote tabulation and certification. The next vote update is scheduled for November 10. The deadline for domestic absentee ballots is November 13, while ranked-choice results and overseas ballot deadlines are set for November 18. The target certification date is November 25 ^[10][3][4]. As of November 6, 2026, the Associated Press has not called the race, and the Alaska Division of Elections has not certified results; the final outcome depends on RCV tabulation beginning November 18, 2026 ^[10][3][11]. Expert consensus aligns with a Democratic win; Sabato's Crystal Ball rated the race 'Likely Democratic' on November 2, and Cook and Inside Elections rated it 'Lean D' ^[10][14][16]. Kreiss-Tomkins significantly outperformed primary polls, finishing first with 22.52% (37,006 votes) despite pre-election polling between 8-15%, partly due to record campaign spending and an AI-driven get-out-the-vote campaign ^[17][18][19]. Ivan Moore of Alaska Survey Research notes that outstanding votes tend to favor Democrats ^[10][14][16].