Short Answer

AOC is not expected to endorse Darializa Avila Chevalier, as the market awaits her decision before November 3, 2026, pricing this outcome at 13.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's decline from 47% to 13% coincides with a series of endorsements by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez for other candidates. Throughout September, she endorsed Peggy Flanagan (September 17), Angie Nixon (September 2), and Tom Perriello (September 24) in various races across the country. These actions appear to have steadily lowered trader expectations that she would endorse the specific candidate in this market.
The single largest drop, a 16.0 percentage point fall on September 25, does not correspond to a specific driver identified in the provided information. While this drop occurred the day after the Perriello endorsement, the context does not establish a direct causal link for the move's magnitude. The market shows a consistent downward trend throughout this period of unrelated endorsement activity.
  • Connie Chan's federal primary progress positions her for an endorsement trigger.
  • Claire Valdez demonstrates strong policy alignment and a significant small-dollar donor base.
  • Cori Bush's incumbency typically does not attract AOC's primary endorsements.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Darializa Avila Chevalier 13.0% 5.7% Darializa Avila Chevalier shows strong grassroots support and policy alignment with AOC.
Claire Valdez 13.0% 5.7% Claire Valdez is a union organizer focusing on labor rights with strong local progressive ties.
Connie Chan 19.0% 9.4% Connie Chan has received endorsements from multiple progressive groups.

Current Context

AOC has already endorsed multiple progressive candidates in the 2026 cycle. As of September 25, 2026, her notable endorsements include Tom Perriello for Virginia's 5th Congressional District (September 24), Peggy Flanagan for Minnesota Senate (September 17), and Angie Nixon for Florida Senate (September 2) [1]. Ballotpedia identifies other endorsements, such as David Orkin (New York Assembly District 38), Analilia Mejia (New Jersey’s 11th), Edward Markey (Massachusetts Senate), and Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan Senate) [2]. AOC endorses selectively and generally later, after candidates demonstrate grassroots momentum [3]. Her choices reflect a focus on working-class agendas, supporting progressive, grassroots-backed Democrats, and candidates committed to universal healthcare and opposing corporate PACs [3]. These endorsements aim to validate candidates with existing local momentum and expand her progressive coalition and national profile, often in strategically meaningful House and Senate contests, including those in challenging districts [1]. Before November 3, she is more likely to endorse additional progressive congressional candidates than a single national presidential or Senate leadership figure [2]. No retrieved source establishes a confirmed specific future endorsee [2].
AOC is a strong favorite in her own 2026 House re-election bid. She secured the Democratic primary for New York's 14th District on June 23 with 86.9% of the vote and is listed for the November 3, 2026 general election against Republican/Conservative candidate Diamant Hysenaj [4]. DDHQ rated her race as Safe Democratic, projecting a 99% win probability for AOC with an estimated 37–38 point Democratic margin [5]. The 2026 general election is Tuesday, November 3 [4]; early voting in New York is scheduled from October 24 to November 1 [6]. Nationally, the 2026 electoral environment favors Democrats in the House but is more competitive in the Senate [7]. DDHQ’s September 18 forecast listed Democrats at 70% for House control and 52% for Senate control [7]. Prediction markets showed varying probabilities: a September 17 comparison reported Kalshi and Polymarket at roughly 88% for Democratic House control and 58%/59% for Democratic Senate control, while a September 24 Kalshi tracker indicated approximately 92% Democratic House and 62% Democratic Senate probabilities [8]. These figures represent market-implied probabilities, not certainties [8]. No retrieved evidence provides a market price for whom AOC will endorse [9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1AOC endorses Democratic hopeful in deep-red Virginia districtwashingtonexaminer.com
  2. 2Endorsements by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezballotpedia.org
  3. 3How AOC and Ro Khanna’s midterm endorsements could influence the Democratic Party - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  4. 4New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  5. 52026 New York US House 14 Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6New York State AFL-CIO Endorsements 2026nysaflcio.org
  7. 72026 Election Forecast - DDHQ Votesvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Midterm Election Prediction Markets: Kalshi & Polymarketipredicta.co
  9. 92026 New York US House 14 Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 September 25, 2026: 59.0pp drop

Price decreased from 72.0% to 13.0%

Outcome: Claire Valdez

What happened: The provided research does not identify a specific primary driver for the 59.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for "Claire Valdez" on September 25, 2026. While the market had Claire Valdez as the leading outcome at 82% as of August 2, 2026, and AOC was generally reported as not endorsing Valdez by September 25, the retrieved evidence explicitly states that it "do[es] not substantiate the stated 59.0 percentage-point drop or identify a verified social-media catalyst" for that date [1][2][3][4][5]. Therefore, no social media activity or traditional news event can be pinpointed as the cause from the given information. Social media was irrelevant in terms of a documented catalyst for this specific price movement according to the provided sources.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Mamdani and AOC endorse DSA legislative candidatescityandstateny.com
  2. 2Who will AOC endorse? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  3. 3New York's 7th Congressional District election, 2026 (June 23 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Claire Valdez defeated three other candidates in the Democratic primary for New York's 7th Congressional District on June 23, 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 52026 New York US House 7 Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content:

1. The exact triggers for a YES resolution are not specified. 2. The exact triggers for a NO resolution are not specified. 3. The only key date mentioned is November 3, 2026, associated with "Max payout." 4. No special settlement conditions are detailed in the provided text.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Connie Chan $0.19 $0.93 19%
Claire Valdez $0.68 $0.85 13%
Darializa Avila Chevalier $0.79 $0.87 13%

Market Discussion

Prediction market activity for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement in the November 3, 2026 election shows Claire Valdez as the leading candidate, with odds at 72% as of September 20, 2026 [1]. While Ocasio-Cortez has a documented pattern of endorsing prominent progressive or Democratic nominees, and traders view her past endorsements as meaningful signals [2][3][4][5][6][7], as of September 25, 2026, there is no retrieved evidence that she is preparing to endorse another 2026 candidate [8][9]. Therefore, if the market refers to a future presidential endorsement, 'unknown/not yet announced' is the best-supported answer [8][9][5][6].

Sources (9)
  1. 1Who will AOC endorse in 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2AOC endorses Markey as incumbent faces primary challenge from Moulton | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  3. 3AOC's endorsement power: Full list of candidates and a look at her recordground.news
  4. 4AOC Boosts El-Sayed on Prediction Markets as Michigan Senate Primary Clears Up - DeFi Ratedefirate.com
  5. 5Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Presidential election endorsements, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 82026 New York US House 14 Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 New York US House 14 Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 67 Caution

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good

Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score24Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score67Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
67Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Claire Valdez” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
29Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

3 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Claire Valdez27
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Darializa Avila Chevalier29
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Connie Chan—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
82Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

3 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Darializa Avila Chevalier82
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 2d

Claire Valdez82
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 2d

Connie Chan—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Connie Chan100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Darializa Avila Chevalier100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Claire Valdez100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
24Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 29 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 49.6c slippage (~108% of a 46c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 settled or closed — not scored

Connie Chan–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Darializa Avila ChevalierPrimary29Market scoreLiquidity29Move quality82Rule clarity100
Why 29
Liquidity
29 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
82 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 2d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Claire Valdez27Market scoreLiquidity27Move quality82Rule clarity100
Why 27
Liquidity
27 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
82 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 2d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 25, 2026

6. How do the policy platforms of Cori Bush and Claire Valdez align with AOC's key legislative priorities for the 2026 cycle?

Valdez policy alignmentAligns with AOC on public housing, tenant rights, labor, taxing the rich [1][2][3]
Bush policy alignmentAligns with AOC on healthcare, housing as a right, anti-poverty [1][4][5][6][3]
Valdez endorsement odds82% on August 2, 72% on September 20 [7][8]
Claire Valdez's policy platform demonstrates a stronger alignment with Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez's key legislative priorities, particularly concerning public and social housing, tenant-centered housing investment, and labor and working-class affordability. Valdez's platform advocates for taxing the rich, tenant protections, worker empowerment, Palestinian freedom, and directly champions the Homes Act public housing option. These stances align with AOC's Green New Deal focus on a just transition, union jobs, economic security, affordable housing, and environmental justice [1][2][3][9][10][11]. Conversely, Cori Bush's record and 2026 platform strongly align with AOC on universal health care, housing as a right, anti-poverty policy, and working-class economic security, including an Unhoused Bill of Rights. However, the available evidence is less explicit regarding Bush's climate and labor-transition agenda, which is a significant component of AOC's Green New Deal [1][4][5][6][3][9]. Overall, Valdez appears to be the closer match to AOC's combined labor-housing-tax-the-rich and movement-socialist agenda [1][2][9].
Claire Valdez has advanced, while Cori Bush lost her primary. Prediction market evidence favors Claire Valdez for an endorsement, with reports indicating 82% odds on August 2 and 72% on September 20 [7][8]. Valdez won the New York's 7th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, successfully advancing from that election [12][2][13][14][6]. In contrast, Cori Bush lost the 2026 Missouri-01 Democratic primary [4][5]. Consequently, Valdez is the active candidate whose endorsement would be relevant for the upcoming November general election [2][6]. As of September 25, 2026, the retrieved evidence does not document an endorsement of either candidate by Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez [3].
Sources (14)
  1. 1JVP Action Endorsements 2026jewishvoiceforpeace.org
  2. 2Meet All the New Progressives and Democratic Socialists...portside.org
  3. 3New York's 7th Congressional District election, 2026 (June...ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Election Live Blog: Scenes from McKinney Victory Partydemocraticleft.dsausa.org
  5. 5Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2026 (August 4 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Rep. Wesley Bell and former Rep. Cori Bush are again running against each other in the Democratic primary for Missouri's 1st Congressional District - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Who will AOC endorse? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  8. 8Who will AOC endorse? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  9. 9DELIVERING A GREEN NEW DEALocasio-cortez.house.gov
  10. 10GREEN NEW DEAL FOR PUBLIC HOUSING ACTocasio-cortez.house.gov
  11. 11Claire Valdezballotpedia.org
  12. 12The Rise of Democratic Socialism: What Employers Need...fisherphillips.com
  13. 13Endorsements by Justice Democrats PACballotpedia.org
  14. 14Claire Valdez defeated three other candidates in the Democratic primary for New York's 7th Congressional District on June 23, 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

7. Which upcoming electoral milestones or fundraising deadlines for Darializa Avila Chevalier and Connie Chan could trigger an endorsement from AOC before November 2026?

Darializa Avila Chevalier Cash on Hand$222,087 (as of June 30, 2026) [1][2]
Connie Chan Total Receipts$1,094,321.06 (through June 30, 2026) [3]
Next General Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][4]
Upcoming federal election deadlines present strategic timing for potential endorsements. Both Darializa Avila Chevalier and Connie Chan are advancing to the November 3, 2026 general election, which is the primary upcoming electoral milestone for both candidates [1][4]. While the research does not document an endorsement from AOC for either candidate, potential fundraising triggers for such an endorsement exist before the general election [5][6]. These include the federal campaign finance disclosure deadlines on October 15 for quarterly reports and October 22 for Pre-General reports, which are inferred as strategic timing to maximize attention and fundraising [7][8][9][10].
Darializa Avila Chevalier is a strong progressive contender in New York. She secured the Democratic primary for New York-13 on June 23 and is a general election candidate for the November 3, 2026 election [1][10]. As of June 30, 2026, her campaign reported raising $1,354,602, spending $1,132,514, and holding $222,087 in cash on hand [1][2]. Although AOC did not endorse Chevalier during the primary, a general election endorsement remains a possibility [11][12]. Chevalier boasts a strong progressive endorsement profile, including support from Justice Democrats, NYC DSA, UAW, and Zohran Mamdani [11][5][13].
Connie Chan advanced in California, also facing key financial deadlines. She progressed from California's June 2, 2026 top-two primary and is set to compete against Scott Wiener in the November 3 general election [4][10]. FEC data indicates that Chan had $1,094,321.06 in receipts through June 30, 2026, with a pro-Chan PAC spending an additional $475,000 by May 30 [3][14]. Chan received an endorsement from Nancy Pelosi prior to the primary [4]. The federal campaign finance disclosure deadlines in October are relevant for Chan as potential strategic moments for an endorsement to garner attention and financial support [7][8][9][10][5][6].
Sources (14)
  1. 1New York's 13th Congressional District election, 2026...ballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 New York House Election Polls, Odds & Candidatespredictionedge.com
  3. 3CHAN, CONNIE - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  4. 4Scott Wiener (D) and Connie Chan (D) advanced from the...news.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Darializa Avila Chevalier - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6California's 11th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 Pre- and Post-General reportsfec.gov
  8. 8FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 Quarterly filersfec.gov
  9. 9FEC | Dates and Deadlines | 2026 supplemental filing information congressional committeesfec.gov
  10. 10New York's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11The 2026 NYC congressional primaries to watchcityandstateny.com
  12. 12The Dems already had AOC. Now they have DAC.yahoo.com
  13. 13New York's 13th Congressional District election, 2026 (June 23 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  14. 14Super PAC Network Backing Connie Chan Received...dropsitenews.com

8. What is the historical pattern of AOC's endorsements in contested primaries, and how does Cori Bush's incumbency factor into this calculus for 2026?

2024 MO-1 Primary ResultWesley Bell defeated Cori Bush 51.1% to 45.6% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
AOC 2024 Bush EndorsementEndorsed Cori Bush [1][7]
AOC 2026 EndorsementNo endorsement for Bush reported as of August 2026 [1][7]
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez selectively endorses progressive candidates over mere incumbents. Her historical primary endorsement pattern consistently aligns with progressive organizations and candidates, rather than simply supporting those already holding office [8][9][10][11][12]. For the 2026 Missouri-1 Democratic primary, this pattern was particularly relevant because Cori Bush was not the incumbent, having lost to Wesley Bell in the 2024 Democratic primary. This change in status significantly influenced the calculus for any potential endorsement from Ocasio-Cortez in the 2026 race [1][2][3][4][5][6].
For 2026, Cori Bush's non-incumbency complicated a potential AOC endorsement. Ocasio-Cortez's documented primary endorsements generally reflect an ideological, coalition-oriented approach. While she had endorsed Bush in 2024, as of August 2026 reporting, Ocasio-Cortez had not endorsed her in the 2026 contest, demonstrating that a previous endorsement does not automatically guarantee a repeat [1][7]. The decision involved weighing ideological alignment with Bush against the customary incumbent-protection logic that would favor Bell, who ultimately defeated Bush in the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary election. The retrieved sources do not explicitly document an endorsement by Ocasio-Cortez for either Bush or Bell in this particular contest [2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Cori Bush's Comeback Bid Tests Limits of Progressive...wsj.com
  2. 2Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2026 (August 4 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Rep. Wesley Bell and former Rep. Cori Bush are again running against each other in the Democratic primary for Missouri's 1st Congressional District - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell defeated four other candidates in the Democratic primary for Missouri's 1st Congressional District on Aug. 4, 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2026 (August...ballotpedia.org
  6. 6Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  7. 7Progressive Cori Bush seeks to return to Washington by...cnn.com
  8. 8Endorsements by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezballotpedia.org
  9. 9New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2020 (June 23 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 10Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins renomination over three challengers - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
  11. 11New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2024ballotpedia.org
  12. 12New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2024...ballotpedia.org

9. Is there publicly available polling data for the respective 2026 primary races involving Claire Valdez and Connie Chan?

Claire Valdez NY-07 Primary Win55.9% (June 23, 2026) [1]
Connie Chan CA-11 Primary Result29.7% (June 2, 2026) [2][3]
Valdez Data for Progress Poll24% (January 15–19, 2026) [4][5]
Publicly available polling data exists for Claire Valdez's 2026 New York congressional Democratic primary. An Emerson College/PIX 11 survey conducted from May 16–17, 2026, indicated Valdez with 23% support [6]. A separate Data for Progress poll, fielded from January 15–19, 2026, showed her receiving 24% among likely Democratic primary voters [4][5]. Claire Valdez ultimately secured victory in the NY-07 Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, winning with 55.9% of the certified results [1].
Primary polling data for Connie Chan's 2026 California District 11 top-two primary is not publicly available. Although her primary race was publicly documented, the retrieved sources do not contain specific polling figures for that contest [7]. Chan advanced from California's nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026, placing second with 29.7% of the vote, behind Scott Wiener who garnered 40.7% [2][3]. Consequently, publicly reported polling for Chan primarily reflects runoff or general election scenarios. For example, a Lake Research Partners poll from July 14–19 indicated Wiener at 45% and Chan at 40% among likely general election voters [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 12026 NY-07 Congressional Democratic Primary | Polls &...cityandstateny.com
  2. 2California 11th Congressional District 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  3. 3Wiener, Chan advance to general election for CA's 11th...abc7news.com
  4. 4New York's 7th Congressional District election, 2026 (June...ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Four candidates are running in June 23 Democratic...news.ballotpedia.org
  6. 6New York City 2026 Congressional Polling: NY-07, NY-10...emersoncollegepolling.com
  7. 72026 California US House 11 Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8Scott Wiener, Connie Chan have tight race for Congress...missionlocal.org
  9. 9Connie Chan: 2026 California U.S. House Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com

10. How does the small-dollar donor base for Claire Valdez compare to that of Connie Chan for the 2026 election cycle?

Claire Valdez Small-Dollar DonorsMore than 22,000 (early June 2026) [1][2]
Connie Chan Total DonorsMore than 3,000 (June/July 2026) [3][4]
Valdez Lead in Unitemized Contributions$493,972.45 (as of June 30, 2026) [5][6]
Claire Valdez significantly outraised Connie Chan in small-dollar donor count. For the 2026 election cycle, Claire Valdez's NY-07 campaign accumulated over 22,000 small-dollar donors by early June 2026, with contemporaneous reports indicating approximately 20,000 donors contributing an average of about $45 [1][2]. Valdez herself publicly stated surpassing 15,000 individual donors by late April/May, with an average contribution around $50 [7]. In contrast, Connie Chan's CA-11 campaign reported over 3,000 donors as of June/July 2026 [3][4]. This indicates Valdez's donor base was at least 7.3 times larger than Chan's, representing a difference of at least roughly 19,000 donors [1][2][3][4].
Valdez also led substantially in unitemized individual contributions, a small-dollar proxy. As of June 30, 2026, Claire Valdez's FEC committee reported $620,052.01 in unitemized individual contributions [5][8]. Connie Chan's committee reported $126,079.56 in unitemized individual contributions for the same date [6][9]. This demonstrates Valdez's lead over Chan by $493,972.45 in this category, an amount approximately 4.9 times greater than Chan's [5][6].
Direct comparisons between the two campaigns are subject to some qualifications. Sources may not provide perfectly identical small-dollar totals or cutoff dates, and Chan's reported donor total could include donors without a specific small-dollar breakdown. Furthermore, the FEC coverage periods for these figures differed slightly, with Chan's including an earlier fundraising period from November 20, 2025, to June 30, 2026, compared to Valdez's period of January 1 to June 30, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Valdez Faces Scrutiny Over PAC Money in NY-7 Racebkreader.com
  2. 2Valdez Reverses No-PAC Pledge at NY-7 Debatebushwickdaily.com
  3. 3Wiener grows cash lead in D11 race, Chan contributions...sfexaminer.com
  4. 4Wiener leads money race to succeed Pelosi, but Chan...missionlocal.org
  5. 5CLAIRE VALDEZ FOR CONGRESS - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  6. 6CHAN, CONNIE - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  7. 7Photo by Claire Valdez on April 29, 2026.instagram.com
  8. 8Schedule A for Line #11AIdocquery.fec.gov
  9. 9CONNIE CHAN FOR CONGRESS - committee overview | FECfec.gov

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 general election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026, presents several market catalysts. Before Election Day, these include primary results and nominee quality, Labor Day campaign acceleration, September-October debates, early-voting and turnout data, generic-ballot polling, presidential approval, inflation/unemployment, and mid-decade redistricting [1]. As of September 18, 2026, DDHQ’s model shows Democrats with a 70% chance to win the House and a 52% chance to win the Senate [2][3]. This marks an update from DDHQ’s July 15, 2026, release, which described divided congressional control as the most likely outcome, with Democrats at 62% for House control and Republicans at 57% to retain the Senate [4].
AOC's latest reported 2026 endorsement is Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon, announced September 3, ahead of Nixon's November 3 matchup with Republican Sen. Ashley Moody [5][6]. AOC is reported to endorse selectively and generally later than many national figures, often waiting for grassroots momentum [7][8]. If AOC makes another nationally salient endorsement before November 3, 2026, the most likely target is a progressive Democratic or Working Families-aligned candidate [9][10]. Catalysts for an AOC-endorsement market include a candidate entering or winning a primary, AOC appearing at a campaign event, an official endorsement announcement, a major progressive coalition decision, or a filing/ballot deadline [9][11][10].
The period from September 25 through November 2 is a final window for endorsements, debates, polling, fundraising, and early-vote-information [12][1]. Key state registration deadlines during this time include October 5 in Arizona, Florida, and Georgia, October 19 in Alabama, and October 26 in Colorado [13]. November 3, 2026, serves as Election Day and the principal resolution catalyst, with most Senate contracts expected to resolve within approximately 24-48 hours after this date [12][1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2026
  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (13)
  1. 12026 Midterm Elections: Prediction Market Odds and Trading Guide - PredictMarkets.compredictmarkets.com
  2. 22026 Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 U.S. Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Decision Desk HQ Releases 2026 Congressional Forecast Model | DDHQdecisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorses Florida state Rep Angie Nixon for US Senate | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  6. 6AOC's Endorsement Power: Full List of Candidates and a...newsweek.com
  7. 7How AOC and Ro Khanna’s midterm endorsements could influence the Democratic Party - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  8. 8AOC is taking her time ahead of 2028 | Semaforsemafor.com
  9. 9Endorsements by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezballotpedia.org
  10. 10Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezballotpedia.org
  11. 11U.S. House election endorsements, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  12. 122026 Midterm Elections: The races that will decide control of Congressnews.kalshi.com
  13. 132026 election and voting dates - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXENDORSEAOC-26NOV03-CBUS: NO (Aug 06, 2026)