Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout
Short Answer
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election is likely to see turnout above 1.1 million voters, as historical general election patterns and final ballot processing suggest total votes will substantially exceed preliminary counts. The market prices this outcome at 98.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market price surged 47 percentage points on November 4, driven by news reports of lower-than-expected voter turnout in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff. Early reports from election night indicated turnout was tracking at approximately 29-32% of registered voters. This sharply revised expectations downward.
With only 738,322 ballots counted as of early November 4, the market repriced to a near-certainty that the final vote count would resolve below the contract's apparent 900,000 threshold. The move from 51.0% to 98.0% shows how decisively the initial returns settled the question of total turnout for traders, even while the outcome of the mayoral race itself remained too close to call.
- Turnout above 1.1 million appears likely, building on 2026 primary's increased participation.
- Final vote count is expected to surpass 2026 primary's 867,677 city-wide ballots.
- Reaching 1.25 million votes is less probable due to consistent lower-than-expected turnout reports.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.1M | 98.0% | 97.0% | Ongoing ballot processing and historical general election turnout support a substantially higher final vote count. |
| Above 1.0M | 30.0% | 98.0% | Ongoing ballot processing and historical general election turnout support a higher final vote count. |
| Above 1.3M | 5.0% | 8.1% | Lower-than-expected voter turnout figures indicate a ceiling for overall participation despite ongoing processing. |
| Above 1.25M | 15.0% | 11.6% | Lower-than-expected voter turnout reports limit the potential for exceptionally high vote counts like 1.25 million. |
| Above 1.05M | 75.0% | 97.5% | Ongoing ballot processing and historical turnout patterns indicate a substantially higher vote count. |
Current Context
General election results remain uncertain with a narrow lead. As of 3 a.m. November 4, 2026, Nithya Raman held an approximate 15,000-vote lead over Karen Bass (51.1% to 48.9%) with 738,322 ballots counted [1][2]. NBC News Decision Desk declared the race too close to call [1]. The official canvass for the November 3, 2026 election began November 4, with results scheduled for certification by November 27, 2026 [3]. This contest marks the first Los Angeles mayoral runoff involving an incumbent in over two decades, with Bass seeking a second term [1][4].
Voter turnout in the general election shows a decline from the primary. Los Angeles County's total registered voters numbered 5,908,408 [5]. By 12:04 a.m. November 4, 2026, 1,822,223 ballots were cast and counted in the general election, representing a 30.84% turnout among registered voters in LA County [5]. In contrast, the June 2, 2026 primary saw 867,677 ballots cast in the city of Los Angeles, translating to 39.03% turnout, a 31% increase from the 2022 primary [6][7][8]. LA County processed 2,227,461 ballots in the primary, with 37.81% of eligible voters participating, and the share of vote-by-mail ballots decreased by roughly 3 percentage points to 82%, indicating a rise in in-person voting compared to 2022 [9][8]. Bass won 34.3% in the primary, Raman 29.0%, and Spencer Pratt 25.5% [6][8].
Prediction markets favored Bass despite tied pre-election polls. On Election Day, November 3, 2026, traders on a prediction market assigned Karen Bass a 58% probability of winning the LA mayoral race, an increase from 38% one month prior, while Nithya Raman was priced at 42%, with over $109 million in trading volume [10][11][4]. A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the LA Times, conducted October 19-25, 2026, surveyed 2,197 likely voters and reported Bass and Raman tied at 40% each, with 19% undecided and a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points [12][13][6]. Bass's late surge in polling stemmed largely from gaining support among Spencer Pratt's primary voters; her backing among this group rose from 22% in September to 41% in October, while Raman's support from Pratt voters declined from 16% to 14% [14][12][13].
Sources (14)
- 1Nithya Raman holds early lead over Karen Bass as other...nbclosangeles.com
- 2LA Mayor Election Results 2026: Bass vs. Raman, Live · The Basinbasin.la
- 3Live updates: See Los Angeles election resultsnbclosangeles.com
- 4LA Mayoral Election Odds 2026: Bass vs Raman Prediction Market Newscovers.com
- 5Election Results, Los Angeles County, Californialaalmanac.com
- 62026 Los Angeles mayoral electionen.wikipedia.org
- 7Election surprise—voter turnout spikes in the city of Los Angelesxtown.la
- 8L.A. County certifies 2026 primary election ballots, including Los Angeles Mayor and Governor - Los Angeles Timeslatimes.com
- 9Election Results Certified by LA County Board of Supervisors - Crescenta Valley Weeklycrescentavalleyweekly.com
- 10LA mayor odds: Traders give Bass 58% chance over Ramannews.kalshi.com
- 11Bass vs. Raman Prediction: Who Will Win the LA Mayoral Race?covers.com
- 12Bass comes from behind, now in dead heat with Raman in mayor's race, new poll shows - Los Angeles Timeslatimes.com
- 13Karen Bass, Nithya Raman in dead heat in race for LA mayor – NBC Los Angelesnbclosangeles.com
- 14Democrats Karen Bass, Nithya Raman face off in the Los Angeles mayoral election - CBS Los Angelescbsnews.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 1.0M
📉 November 04, 2026: 47.0pp drop
Price decreased from 77.0% to 30.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 47.0 percentage point drop was traditional news reporting on lower-than-expected voter turnout figures for the Los Angeles mayoral runoff. As of late Tuesday night on November 3, 2026, the runoff was tracking at approximately 29-32% of registered voters, significantly below the 2024 benchmark and implying total votes well under 1.0 million [1][2]. This data, available as votes were being counted around the market's date, directly contradicted the "Above 1.0M" outcome. While social media influenced campaign dynamics earlier, there is no evidence of specific activity on November 4, 2026, directly causing this substantial drop in turnout prediction. Social media was mostly noise in this context.
📉 November 03, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 94.0% to 78.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 16.0 percentage point drop was traditional news reporting on lower-than-expected voter turnout. On November 3, 2026, reports indicated approximately 1.72 million ballots counted countywide, representing 29.13% of registered voters [1]. This percentage turnout was a significant drop of 13-16 percentage points compared to the 2022 mayoral runoff's approximately 45% turnout, signaling reduced overall voter engagement [1]. Market participants likely reacted to these low percentage figures, leading to a downward adjustment in the perceived likelihood of the Los Angeles mayoral election's total votes exceeding 1.0 million, despite high county-level vote totals. Social media was mostly noise in this specific event.
Outcome: Above 1.2M
📉 November 02, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 21.0% to 8.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 13.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 1.2M" prediction market for Los Angeles mayoral voter turnout on November 02, 2026, was likely persistent social media activity spreading conspiracy theories about vote-counting [3][4]. Throughout the 2026 LA mayoral race, influencers on platforms like X and TikTok amplified fraud claims and skepticism regarding election integrity, which likely eroded market confidence in the reliable affirmation of reported turnout figures [3][5][6]. This widespread social media-driven distrust likely coincided with the price move, causing the drop despite early voting data indicating turnout well over 1.2 million ballots [3][7]. Social media was a primary driver by undermining confidence in the election results themselves.
Sources (7)
- 1LA Mayor Election Results 2026: Bass Vs. Raman [Live Updates] | Los Angeles, CA Patchpatch.com
- 2Equal turnout would have moved the mayor's race by one point · The Basinbasin.la
- 3The online meltdown over LA’s vote count - POLITICOpolitico.com
- 4Red Mirage, Blue Shift, Online Cope - by Renee DiRestaagentsofinfluence.substack.com
- 5MAGA Meltdown: Spencer Pratt’s LA Mayoral Election Flop & Fraud Claims Explained (2026)kwva270.org
- 6MAGA Meltdown: Spencer Pratt’s LA Mayoral Election Flop & Fraud Claims Explained (2026)midorinomachi.com
- 7Early voting turnout in LA County outpaces same point in 2022 midtermsabc7.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For contracts in the Los Angeles mayoral election voter turnout market, a 'YES' resolution occurs if the final official voter turnout exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., "Above 1.45M"), and a 'NO' resolution occurs if it is at or below that threshold. Settlement for these contracts will take place only after the results are officially certified, with a maximum payout date of November 3, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.1M | $1.00 | $0.59 | 98% |
| Above 900K | $0.99 | $0.05 | 95% |
| Above 950K | $0.99 | $0.24 | 87% |
| Above 1.05M | $0.97 | $0.62 | 75% |
| Above 1.15M | $0.95 | $0.59 | 41% |
| Above 1.0M | $0.93 | $0.65 | 30% |
| Above 1.25M | $0.92 | $0.80 | 15% |
| Above 1.2M | $0.92 | $0.83 | 14% |
| Above 1.35M | $0.91 | $0.92 | 9% |
| Above 1.3M | $0.91 | $0.93 | 5% |
| Above 1.45M | $0.91 | $0.90 | 3% |
| Above 1.4M | $0.98 | $0.92 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders in the "Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout" market overwhelmingly predict that the final voter turnout will be below 1.35 million. The probability for turnout exceeding 1.35 million has recently dropped to 9%, reflecting a strong consensus against higher turnout thresholds. As 62.7% of votes are counted, market sentiment suggests it is highly unlikely for turnout to reach or surpass 1.35M, 1.4M, or 1.45M.
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score77Good
Market integrity is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score44High Risk
Trust score71Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How does the 31% increase in turnout for the June 2026 primary compare to past election cycles, and what does it imply for the November general election?
| June 2026 Primary Turnout Increase | 31% compared to June 2022 [1] |
|---|---|
| LA City Ballots Cast (June 2026 Primary) | 867,677 [1] |
| Kalshi Prediction Nov 2026 Turnout (Above 1.0M) | 99% probability [2][3][4][5] |
The June 2026 Los Angeles primary saw a significant increase in voter turnout. The city's primary election experienced a 31% rise in voter participation compared to the June 2022 primary, with 867,677 ballots cast [1]. This surge led to a citywide turnout of 39.03% and more than doubled the votes recorded in the March 2017 mayoral primary [1]. This level of engagement ran counter to pre-election predictions, indicating robust voter interest in Los Angeles politics [1][6]. Countywide, participation also increased, with over 2.22 million residents casting ballots [1].
The primary's turnout suggests potential advantages for the November general election. Experts anticipate a larger and potentially more progressive voter turnout in the November 2026 general election than observed in the primary, which could favor progressive candidate Nithya Raman over incumbent Karen Bass [7]. In the primary, Raman advanced with 247,781 votes (29.0%), while Bass received 292,593 votes (34.3%) [8][7]. Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, indicate a 99% probability of general election turnout surpassing 1.0 million and a 51% probability of it exceeding 1.3 million [2][3][4][5]. Early results from November 4, 2026, show Raman with an initial lead of 51.1% (377,458 votes) against Bass's 48.9% (360,864 votes), though the race is currently too early to call [6].
Sources (8)
- 1Election surprise—voter turnout spikes in the city of Los Angelesxtown.la
- 2Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 3Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 4Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 5Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6Nithya Raman holds early lead over Karen Bass as other...nbclosangeles.com
- 7June 2, 2026, election resultsballotpedia.org
- 8California Primary 2026: Live Election Resultsnytimes.com
7. What get-out-the-vote (GOTV) strategies are the Bass and Raman campaigns deploying in the final month before the November 2026 election?
| Churches mobilized for Bass (Project BIG VOTE) | 4,000 Los Angeles churches [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Raman support (18-29 year olds) | 69% of likely voters [3][4] |
| Ballot return rate (voters under 35) | 8% as of early November 2026 [4] |
In the final month before the November 2026 election, Karen Bass's campaign deployed traditional grassroots outreach and extensive community mobilization. Her campaign was characterized as an 'almost perfect 20th-century campaign,' utilizing methods such as old-school handouts, door hangers, and precinct walking by senior volunteers [4]. A significant component of her Get-Out-The-Vote (GOTV) efforts included the National Black Church Initiative activating 'Project BIG VOTE' in late September 2026, which mobilized its network of 4,000 Los Angeles churches [1][2]. The Bass campaign also hosted a GOTV Block Party featuring young volunteers and campaigned alongside SEIU workers in late October 2026, advocating for higher wages and improved working conditions [5][6].
Conversely, Nithya Raman's campaign concentrated on online platforms to engage younger voters. Her strategy heavily utilized social media posts featuring influencers, spoofs of microdramas, and celebrity supporters including Natalie Portman and Poppy Liu [4]. This approach aims to mobilize younger demographics, among whom Raman leads significantly, with 69% of likely voters aged 18-29 and 74% of voters aged 30-39 supporting her [3][4]. This emphasis is particularly important given that only 8% of Los Angeles voters under 35 had returned their ballots by early November 2026, compared to 31% of voters over 65 [4]. Raman also targeted renter-heavy areas, having garnered 37% of the vote in neighborhoods where at least 80% of households rent during the June 2 primary [3].
Sources (6)
- 1National Black Church Initiative Activates Project BIG VOTE...knoxnews.com
- 2National Black Church Initiative Activates Project BIG VOTE...lohud.com
- 3Raman leads among younger voters, polls show, but Bass...latimes.com
- 4In L.A., a Stark Generational Divide May Determine...futurecaucus.org
- 5L.A. Forward GOTV Block Party: Vote Now Before...facebook.com
- 6Karen Bass Campaigns with SEIU Workers for Higher...facebook.com
8. How do the demographic and geographic voter bases for Karen Bass and Nithya Raman compare, and which candidate's supporters have a higher historical propensity to vote?
| Bass support over 65 | 33% of voters over 65 (Karen Bass) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Raman support under 65 | 22% among voters under 65 (Nithya Raman) [3][1] |
| Bass support Latino precincts | 37.5% of votes in majority-Latino precincts (Karen Bass) [4] |
Karen Bass garnered support from older, Latino voters across diverse LA areas. Bass's voter base demonstrated strength among older residents and Latino voters, whereas Nithya Raman's support was notably stronger with younger voters [4][3][1][2]. Geographically, Bass's support was concentrated in regions such as the South Bay, central Los Angeles, and the Northeast Valley, frequently in middle-class communities, and extended into Black, Latino, and white liberal strongholds [4][5][6][7]. In the June 2026 LA mayoral primary, Bass secured 37.5% of votes in majority-Latino precincts, carrying 120 out of 144 such precincts, indicating broad Latino support across the city [4]. Raman's support, while described as less geographically concentrated overall, included her council district and precincts with younger voters, prominently dominating the Westwood precinct, which encompasses UCLA [4][5][6].
Bass supporters exhibited higher historical voting propensity, particularly older demographics. Bass's supporters demonstrated a greater historical likelihood to vote [1]. Early voting in California typically originates from higher-propensity, older voters, with Bass securing 33% of voters over 65 [1][2][3]. In contrast, Raman attracted only 7% from voters over 65, but she was the leading vote-getter at 22% among voters under 65 [3][1]. This pattern aligned with the late vote pool, which tends to include more younger and lower-propensity voters [3][1]. This demographic shift within the late ballot count largely accounted for Raman's late surge in the primary, consistent with historical data indicating that older individuals participate in elections at higher rates than younger populations [1][7].
Sources (7)
- 1How Late Ballots Helped Nithya Raman Overtake Spencer Pratttheballotbook.com
- 2Bass, Raman in Dead Heat in Race for LA Mayorkesq.com
- 3Survey of Likely Nonpartisan Primary Voterscygn.al
- 4Opinion | Will Latino voters stick with Karen Bass for LA...calmatters.org
- 5See the Areas Where the L.A. Mayoral Candidates Built...nytimes.com
- 6Bass, Pratt and Raman dominated in different parts of the citylatimes.com
- 7APCA Youth Development Report Los Angelesadvancementprojectca.org
9. What is the official reporting schedule for Los Angeles County ballot counts between Election Night 2026 and the final certification deadline?
| Initial Election Night Results Update | November 3, 2026, at approximately 8:30 PM [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| LA County Results Certification Date | November 27, 2026 [1][4][5][6] |
| California State Certification Deadline for Counties | December 3, 2026 [1][4][5][6] |
Los Angeles County initiates election results reporting on Election Night 2026. The county is scheduled to begin reporting election results on Election Night, November 3, 2026. The first updates are anticipated at approximately 8:30 PM, specifically for Vote by Mail ballots received prior to Election Day. A second update is scheduled for 8:45 PM for Vote Center ballots cast before Election Day. Following 9 PM, recurring results will be released as Election Day Vote Center ballots are counted, culminating in semi-final results once all Election Day ballots have been processed [1][2][3].
Daily updates continue until certification, processing all remaining ballots. Beyond Election Night, Los Angeles County plans to issue results updates twice daily from November 4-6, 2026, at 9:00 AM and 4:00 PM [7][2][3]. Subsequently, from November 7 through November 27, updates will be posted daily between 4:00-5:00 PM [7][2][3]. During this post-election period, the county actively processes various remaining ballots, including vote-by-mail ballots postmarked by Election Day that must be received by November 10, 2026, and clears conditional and provisional ballots [1][7][2][8]. The official election canvass begins on November 4, 2026, with the Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk scheduled to certify the election results on November 27, 2026. The statewide deadline for county certification is December 3, 2026 [1][4][5][6].
Sources (8)
- 1Key Dates and Deadlines - California Secretary of Statesos.ca.gov
- 2november 3, 2026 - general electioncontent.lavote.gov
- 3Live Resultslavote.gov
- 4Official Canvass - Vote Counting Processsos.ca.gov
- 5Live updates: See Los Angeles election resultsnbclosangeles.com
- 6You voted, now what? How to track your ballot and when to...lapublicpress.org
- 7REPORTING ELECTION RESULTScontent.lavote.gov
- 8When will California election results be final? What to knowdesertsun.com
10. What does the changing ratio of vote-by-mail to in-person voting since 2022 suggest about total turnout projections for the 2026 LA mayoral election?
| LA County Primary Turnout (2026) | 38% of eligible voters (vs 28% in 2022) [1] |
|---|---|
| LA Mayoral Race Primary Votes (2026) | More than 850,000 (30% increase from nearly 650,000 in 2022) [1] |
| LA Mayoral General Election Turnout Expectation | Potentially 61% (vs 50% in prior cycle) [2] |
The 2026 primary election showed increased voter engagement and shifting patterns. The share of vote-by-mail ballots decreased, with one report indicating a drop of approximately 3 percentage points to 82% [1], while another noted 89% voted by mail, a slight decrease from over 90% in June 2022 [3]. Despite a continued high mail-in share, ballot processing accelerated, with 61% of votes counted within the first two days of Election Day, an increase from 50% in June 2022 [3]. Concurrently, Los Angeles County primary turnout surged from 28% of eligible voters in 2022 to 38% in 2026 [1]. The Los Angeles mayoral race specifically saw more than 850,000 votes cast, marking a 30% increase from nearly 650,000 in 2022, with a city-wide turnout of 39.03% [1].
Expectations for November 2026 general election project significantly higher turnout. This upward trend in voter engagement from the primary appears to contribute to projections for the general election. As of November 3, 2026, Los Angeles County voter turnout was described as 'healthier' than in 2022, with approximately 1.9 million ballots cast countywide and overall turnout trending higher than the 28% recorded in 2022 [4]. Projections anticipate that voter turnout for the November 2026 election could reach 61%, potentially setting records, compared with 50% in the prior cycle if current trends persist [2]. These projections are further reflected in prediction market prices for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election total vote count, which resolves on November 3, 2027. The market assigns a 99% probability to 'Above 1.0M' votes, 51% to 'Above 1.3M', and 3% to 'Above 1.45M' [5].
Sources (5)
- 1L.A. County certifies 2026 primary election ballotslatimes.com
- 2Election Day: Voters to decide on California governor, L.A....ktla.com
- 3Voter turnout so far - Los Angeleslaist.com
- 4LA County voter turnout is "healthier" than in 2022...facebook.com
- 5Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass faces challenges despite endorsements and financial advantages. Her campaign benefits from endorsements by Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, alongside the LA County Federation of Labor, which represents over 800,000 workers [1][2]. Bass also maintains a 3-to-1 spending advantage, with $3.77 million raised compared to Raman's $1.19 million [2]. Key headwinds for Bass include a 50% unfavorable rating, a 3.4% rise in the 2026 homeless count, and approximately 41% of participants in her Inside Safe program reportedly returning to the street [3][4]. City Councilmember Nithya Raman's catalysts include strong support from younger voters, with 69% of likely voters under 30 and 74% of those aged 30-39 favoring her [1]. Raman also holds endorsements from Bernie Sanders and ACCE [1]. Historical precedent suggests challengers tend to perform well in forced municipal runoffs [1].
Market dynamics and voter turnout also present significant catalysts. Kalshi prediction markets on November 3, 2026, priced Bass at 58% ($0.58) and Raman at 42% ($0.42), with trading volume exceeding $109 million [1]. However, Polymarket showed Raman at 99% on that date, possibly reflecting early vote counts, and the market was volatile, with Raman briefly reaching 51% on October 22 [5][6][7]. As of 3 a.m. November 4, 2026, with 62.7% of the expected vote counted, Raman led Bass 51.1% to 48.9% [8]. Voter turnout prediction contracts on Kalshi indicate a 99% probability of exceeding 900,000 votes, and a 51% probability of exceeding 1.3 million votes [9]. The 218,000 primary voters who supported Spencer Pratt remain a significant undecided bloc, as Pratt refused to endorse either candidate [10][3].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (10)
- 1LA mayor odds: Traders give Bass 58% chance over Ramannews.kalshi.com
- 2LA Mayoral Election Odds 2026: Bass vs Raman Prediction Market Newscovers.com
- 3Bass Vs Raman Odds: The Fake Poll Kalshi Didn't Buy | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
- 4Devastating wildfire and homelessness loom over Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass' bid for second term | PBS Newspbs.org
- 5Los Angeles Mayoral Electionpolymarket.com
- 6LA mayor odds: Raman retakes market lead over Bass at 51%news.kalshi.com
- 7LA Mayor Race Polls vs. Prediction Market Odds — Preduck Blogblog.preduck.com
- 8Nithya Raman holds early lead over Karen Bass as other...nbclosangeles.com
- 9Los Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 10Nithya Raman Ousts Spencer Pratt in LA Mayor Runoff Racelamag.com
