Short Answer

Ashley Hinson is likely to win the 2026 Iowa Senate race, consistently favored by prediction markets in a deeply Republican state, despite recent polling indicating an exceptionally close contest. The market prices her victory at 59.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The release of conflicting polling data appears to be the primary driver of this market's recent movement. The price for a Republican victory in the Iowa Senate race declined from 45.0% to 42.0% around October 15, a move that coincides with reports of a Suffolk poll showing Democrat Josh Turek with a 4-point lead (48%-44%). This poll contradicted other surveys, introducing significant uncertainty into a race previously seen as a narrow Republican advantage.
The market has since stabilized at the 42.0% level. This price reflects the aggregate of mixed polling signals. While the Suffolk poll was bearish for Republican chances, other polls from CNN/SSRS and NYT/Siena showed Republican Ashley Hinson holding a slim 1- to 2-point lead. The market is currently pricing a toss-up race, weighing the competing polling results without a clear directional conviction. Very low trading volume on October 22 suggests the market is awaiting new information before repricing the odds.
  • Since last update (~43d): The model's overall edge against the market widened by -4.1pp, shifting to -4.5.
  • Ashley Hinson's model probability decreased 8.9pp; market fell 5.0pp, widening the edge as model-led.
  • Josh Turek's model probability rose 8.9pp; market gained 5.0pp, with the edge also model-led.
  • Ashley Hinson leads in prediction markets, reflecting Iowa's "deeply Republican" federal electorate.
  • October polling averages show the race "exceptionally close," with Turek tied or slightly ahead.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Josh Turek 42.0% 45.5% The race is a "Toss-up" with October polling averages effectively tied or showing him slightly ahead.
Ashley Hinson 59.0% 54.5% Polling averages show the race as exceptionally close or slightly favor her opponent, despite market predictions.

Current Context

Iowa's open U.S. Senate race shows mixed polling results. As of October 22, 2026, the contest features Republican Ashley Hinson, Democrat Josh Turek, and Libertarian Thomas Laehn, with incumbent Republican Joni Ernst not seeking reelection [1][2][3]. Recent polling indicates a competitive environment: The New York Times reported CNN/SSRS at Hinson +2 (45%-43%), Suffolk at Turek +4 (48%-44%), and NYT/Siena at Hinson +1 (48%-47%) [1][2][3]. A newer co/efficient survey cited by PoliAgg positioned Hinson at 48% and Turek at 45% [4].
Expert forecasts and prediction markets narrowly favor Hinson. PoliAgg shifted Iowa from Toss-up to Tilt Republican on October 21 following a roughly 0.5-point Hinson polling advantage [4]. However, Cook Political Report maintained a Toss-up rating for the open seat on October 20 [5]. Iowa election analyst Dave Price described the contest as surprisingly competitive, linking its closeness to inflation, gas and grocery prices, and dissatisfaction with Donald Trump [1][4][5]. Prediction markets reflect this narrow preference: Kalshi's October 20 report gave Hinson 56% versus Turek 44% after the final debate [6]. Polymarket showed approximately 57% for Hinson and 43% for Turek on October 22, with a cross-market tracker reporting similar figures of about 57% Republican/Hinson and 42%-43% Democratic/Turek [7][8].
Cost-of-living concerns drive a high-spending, close contest. Both candidates have focused final campaign pitches on cost-of-living and health-care affordability [1][9][2]. Outside spending is projected to establish a new record for an Iowa Senate race [1]. Iowa’s general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Early voting runs from October 14 to November 2. Mail-ballot and registration deadlines passed on October 19 [3]. Ashley Hinson stands as the current favorite and most defensible projected winner as of October 22. The evidence supports a close, high-uncertainty race rather than a confident call. A reasonable synthesis suggests roughly 55%-60% for Hinson and 40%-45% for Turek, broadly consistent with prediction markets but less certain than a safe-Republican rating [1][6][4][5][7].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Iowa Senate race tightens with less than two weeks to election daywowt.com
  2. 2Iowa U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  3. 3United States Senate election in Iowa, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Iowa Senate race moves to tilt-R amid four Senate rating shifts — PoliAggpoliagg.com
  5. 52026 CPR Senate Race ratingscookpolitical.com
  6. 6Iowa Senate odds: Hinson leads Turek 56% to 44% after final debatenews.kalshi.com
  7. 7Iowa Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  8. 8Iowa Senate Odds — Live Prediction Market Pricespredictionscout.com
  9. 9Iowa Senate chatbots end week split while markets favor Hinsonvotingmonitor.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market asks "Iowa Senate winner?" and resolves based on the winning party of the Iowa Senate general election.

1. YES resolution: A "Yes" contract for a specific candidate (e.g., Ashley Hinson) resolves to YES if that candidate officially wins the Iowa Senate general election. 2. NO resolution: A "No" contract for a specific candidate (e.g., Ashley Hinson) resolves to YES if that candidate does not win the Iowa Senate general election. 3. Key dates/deadlines: The Iowa Senate general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. 4. Special settlement conditions: The market specifically states it "Resolves by winning party," meaning the determination of the winning candidate and their associated party will be the basis for resolution.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Ashley Hinson $0.59 $0.42 59%
Josh Turek $0.42 $0.59 42%

Market Discussion

Traders in the Iowa Senate winner market currently favor Republican Ashley Hinson with a 58% probability, despite general polls showing a near-even race with Democrat Josh Turek. Arguments for Hinson include her substantial fundraising lead ($13.5M vs $6.3M) and Iowa's recent Republican presidential voting trends. Conversely, Turek demonstrates strong small-donor support (43%) and advocates for policies like tax relief, higher minimum wage, and expanded healthcare, with an associated market suggesting he might outperform current polling.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 84 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score81Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 3% of the price to slippage.

Trust score84Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
86Deep

Size fills near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Josh Turek85
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.4% of price over 15 traded bars

24h traded notional $19,499 · 24h
Ashley Hinson86
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.7% of price over 17 traded bars

24h traded notional $15,169 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Ashley Hinson—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Josh Turek—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Ashley Hinson100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Josh Turek100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
81Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 86 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 58.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 58.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.8c slippage (~3% of a 58.5c contract)

Ashley Hinson86Market scoreLiquidity86Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 86
Liquidity
86 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.7% of price over 17 traded bars

24h traded notional $15,169 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Josh Turek85Market scoreLiquidity85Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 85
Liquidity
85 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.4% of price over 15 traded bars

24h traded notional $19,499 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 24, 2026

5. What are the distinct geographical and demographic paths to victory for Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek in Iowa?

Turek's lead in YouGov poll47-46 [1][2][3]
Trump's 2024 vote in YouGov sample52-41 [1][2][3]
Iowa's federal electorateRemains deeply Republican [4][5][6]
Ashley Hinson’s strategy focuses on solidifying Republican and rural support. Her path to victory involves consolidating the small-town and rural Republican vote, dominating the exurban and suburban Republican base, and actively mobilizing older, rural, socially conservative, and Trump-aligned voters [4][5][6][1]. Geographically, Hinson aims to significantly increase vote totals in Iowa's redder western, northern, and central rural areas, while simultaneously minimizing Democratic advantages in population centers like Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and Iowa City [4][5][6]. A key advantage for Hinson is that Iowa's federal electorate consistently remains deeply Republican, even when statewide polls indicate close races [4][5][6]. Her strategy also involves keeping Republicans unified and winning over a sufficient number of independents who either prefer Republican governance or harbor distrust towards national Democrats [4][1][6].
Josh Turek aims for victory through a broad coalition and high turnout. His strategy is built on maximizing margins in Democratic-leaning metropolitan areas and college communities, achieving strong performance in suburbs, and attracting voters alienated by President Trump, independents, and those who prioritize specific issues [1][7][8][2][3]. Geographically, Turek aims to prevent Hinson from rebuilding the typical Republican rural margin, necessitating gains across a broad coalition that includes metro and college turnout, suburban improvements, independent voter consolidation, and enough rural vote retention to keep Hinson from securing a majority [5][6][4]. Demographically, Turek sees opportunity among voters concerned with costs, Social Security, health care, and abortion [1][2][3]. Third-party and undecided voters are pivotal for both candidates; Hinson benefits if these voters return to the Republican ticket or do not vote in Democratic-leaning areas, while Turek benefits if they consolidate behind him as an anti-Trump or anti-establishment alternative [1][7][9]. A recent YouGov poll indicated Turek leading 47–46, despite President Trump having carried the state's recalled 2024 vote 52–41 within that same sample [1][2][3].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Dem Senate Candidates Narrowly Lead in OH, TX, IAcookpolitical.com
  2. 2Midterm Elections in Iowa, September 2026 - Marist Pollmaristpoll.marist.edu
  3. 3Iowa Senate odds: Hinson leads Turek 56% to 44% after final debatenews.kalshi.com
  4. 4Ashley Hinson shows Republicans' midterm balancing act...washingtonpost.com
  5. 5Iowa Senate Odds 2026: Hinson Vs Turek Verdict | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  6. 6Hinson vs. Turek: Iowa Senate Odds and AI Prediction · Sikt Intelligencesiktintelligence.com
  7. 72026 Polls: Iowa Senate270towin.com
  8. 8Iowa U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  9. 9Iowa Senate 2026 Polls — Turek vs Hinson — PoliAggpoliagg.com

6. What polling data and expert ratings from October 2026 underpin Ashley Hinson's status as the narrow favorite?

Prediction Market Probability for Hinson58%-61% (Kalshi, October 22, 2026) [1]
PollingSource Average (Hinson vs Turek)Hinson 46.3% to Turek 45.3% (R+1.0) [2]
Sikt's Model Win Probability for Hinson55% (October 21) [3]
Ashley Hinson is narrowly favored despite extremely close polling data. Her status as a narrow favorite in the October 2026 Iowa Senate race is primarily based on prediction market and model probabilities modestly exceeding 50% [4][3][1]. However, October polling averages consistently depicted the race as effectively tied or with only a slight Republican advantage of approximately one point [5][2][4][3][1]. Expert ratings and various models generally characterized the contest as a toss-up with a slight Republican tilt, rather than indicating a strong lead for Hinson [4][3].
October polling data consistently indicated an exceptionally close and often tied contest. PollingSource's latest-three average put Hinson at 46.3% and Turek at 45.3% (R+1.0), which included an October 19 co/efficient poll showing Hinson leading 49% to 46% [2]. Prediction Edge reported a five-poll-style average with both candidates at 46.3%, noting October polls showed Hinson advantages ranging from 1.6 to 3 points, and Turek advantages from 1 to 7 points [6]. RealClearPolling's earlier average through October 6 even showed Turek ahead 45.8% to 45.3% [4]. Specific surveys highlighting Hinson's slim lead included CNN/SSRS (Hinson 45% to Turek 43%) and NYT/Siena (Hinson 48% to 47%), while other polls indicated Turek ahead, such as YouGov (Turek 47% to Hinson 46%) and Suffolk (Turek 48% to Hinson 44%) [5][2][6][7].
Prediction markets and expert models synthesize factors beyond just raw poll numbers. For instance, Sikt's October 21 model assigned Hinson a 55% win probability, describing it as a near coin flip, based on Iowa's Republican electoral history, Hinson's financial advantages, and outside support, while also considering the Democratic national environment and Turek's fundraising [3]. Prediction markets like Kalshi showed Hinson at approximately 58%–61% versus Josh Turek at 42% as of October 22, 2026 [1][8]. These traded probabilities explicitly contrast with polls sometimes showing Turek ahead, suggesting the market incorporates Iowa's Republican baseline (e.g., Trump's 13-point win in 2024), historical trends, candidate resources, and potential polling errors [3][1][8]. Expert ratings, such as RealClearPolitics, categorized the race as a Toss Up [4].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Iowa Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Hinson vs. Turek | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2Iowa Senate Race 2026 | PollingSourcepollingsource.com
  3. 3Hinson vs. Turek: Iowa Senate Odds and AI Prediction · Sikt Intelligencesiktintelligence.com
  4. 42026 Iowa Senate - Hinson vs Turekrealclearpolling.com
  5. 5Iowa U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  6. 62026 Iowa Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  7. 7Undecided Iowa voters are making up their minds in tight...yahoo.com
  8. 8Iowa Senate odds: Hinson leads Turek 56% to 44% after final debatenews.kalshi.com

7. Which potential late-game events could shift momentum between Hinson and Turek before the November 3 election?

Time remaining in raceFinal 12 days [1][2][3][4][5]
Turek's missed floor votes58% of Iowa House floor votes [2][6]
Hinson's Iran war votesSeven votes [7][8][9]
Iowa's close Senate race could shift with late developments [1][2][3][4][5]. The Iowa Senate race is described as exceptionally close, with a significant number of undecided voters remaining in the final 12 days before the election [1][2][3][4][5]. Potential late-game events that could substantially shift momentum between candidates Hinson and Turek include foreign-policy and energy-price shocks, sudden changes in affordability costs, candidate-specific controversies, and the effective execution of turnout strategies [2][4][5][7][8][9][6][10]. Affordability, encompassing gasoline, diesel, health-care, and prescription-drug costs, is a central closing message for both campaigns. A sharp change in fuel prices or a compelling late economic narrative could materially influence undecided and crossover voters [2][4][5].
Candidate controversies and prior records may sway voter sentiment [2][7][8][9][6]. Turek has attacked Hinson for her seven votes supporting the continuation of the Iran war, while Hinson can highlight Turek's record, including his missing 58% of Iowa House floor votes [2][7][8][9][6]. The October 14 WHO 13 confrontation was identified as the final debate [2][9]. Therefore, future significant momentum events are more likely to be unplanned news shocks, damaging late ads, major endorsements, or visible campaign missteps rather than additional formal debates [2][9].
Turnout and coalition execution are crucial for the race outcome [2][6][10]. Given the proximity of the race, turnout and coalition execution will likely be decisive [2][6][10]. Hinson benefits from Republican alignment, including endorsements, while Turek aims to attract some former Trump supporters [2][6][10]. Any campaign's late ground-game, absentee or early-vote mobilization, or turnout failure could alter the outcome [2][6][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Iowa Senate race narrows as Turek leads Hinson by 2...kcci.com
  2. 2Iowa Senate race tightens with less than two weeks to...wowt.com
  3. 32026 Iowa Senate - Hinson vs Turekrealclearpolling.com
  4. 4Iowa U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  5. 5Undecided Iowa voters are making up their minds in tight...newsweek.com
  6. 6Iowa's 2026 Senate race: What to know about Josh Turek...fox9.com
  7. 7Iowa Senate odds: Hinson leads Turek 56% to 44% after final debatenews.kalshi.com
  8. 8U.S. Senate candidates Hinson and Turek debate Iran war...iowapublicradio.org
  9. 9Hinson, Turek tangle in fierce final Iowa Senate debatethehill.com
  10. 10United States Senate election in Iowa, 2026ballotpedia.org

8. How does outside spending from PACs and other independent groups break down between Hinson and Turek in the final weeks?

Total Independent Spending$127.05 million (as of October 21, 2026) [1][2]
Independent Spending Benefiting Ashley Hinson$69.21 million (54.5% of total independent spending) [1][2]
Projected Total Ad SpendingApproximately $195 million by Election Day [3][4][2]
Overall independent spending favored Hinson in the final weeks. As of October 21, 2026, general-election independent spending reached $127.05 million, with Ashley Hinson benefiting from $69.21 million and Josh Turek from $57.84 million, representing a split of 54.5% versus 45.5% respectively [1][2]. Attack spending significantly surpassed positive spending, with approximately $53.8–$54.9 million opposing Turek compared to $48.3–$48.4 million opposing Hinson [1][4][2].
Specific spending details highlight major contributions for each candidate. Independent spending benefiting Ashley Hinson totaled $69.21 million, which included $14.35 million supporting Hinson and $48.41 million opposing Josh Turek [2][4]. The largest contributors benefiting Hinson were Senate Leadership Fund/SLF PAC ($35.18M), AFP Action ($11.39M), and Fight On Iowa ($9.98M) [2][4]. Independent spending benefiting Josh Turek totaled $57.84 million, consisting of $9.43 million supporting Turek and $54.86 million opposing Ashley Hinson [2][4]. Major contributors benefiting Turek included WinSenate ($28.29M), VoteVets ($7.88M), and Lower Costs Now ($5.79M) [2][4]. Overall, including campaign spending, total money benefiting Hinson was tracked at $77.68 million versus $74.39 million benefiting Turek [1][2].
Outside spending strategies in the final weeks were asymmetric. Republican-aligned groups, prominently led by SLF PAC, focused their efforts on attacking Turek, with SLF PAC reporting an Iowa expenditure of roughly $34–35 million and pledging to reach $53 million by Election Day [3][4][2]. Concurrently, Democratic-aligned WinSenate concentrated its spending on attacking Hinson, dedicating approximately $28.2–$28.3 million to these efforts [3][4][2]. The race's projected total ad spending was expected to reach about $195 million by Election Day [3][4][2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Iowa Senate 2026 Polls — Turek vs Hinson — PoliAggpoliagg.com
  2. 2Iowa Senate Race 2026: Hinson vs. Turek Money Trackervotelog.org
  3. 3Three SuperPACS Have Spent More Than Half a Billion...legis1.com
  4. 4Iowa Senate Race Heats Up: Millions in Outside Attack Adsdailysignal.com

9. How do Ashley Hinson's and Josh Turek's platforms compare on key economic issues like inflation and healthcare?

Inflation rate (January 2026)2.4% [1][2][3][4]
Proposed insulin cost cap$25 per month [3][4]
Iowans potentially losing Medicaid coverage (Turek's claim)110,000 [3][4]
Hinson and Turek present distinct economic platforms on inflation and healthcare. Ashley Hinson generally advocates for market-oriented solutions, tax relief, and reduced regulation, while Josh Turek champions stronger federal controls, expanded public coverage, and worker-oriented interventions [2][3]. Regarding inflation and the cost of living, Hinson proposes tax relief for working families, making middle-class tax cuts permanent, cutting wasteful federal spending, and lowering regulatory burdens [2][3]. She attributes affordability problems primarily to taxes, government waste, inflation, and excessive regulation [1][2][3][4]. Conversely, Turek emphasizes direct price controls and worker interventions, including a federal ban on grocery price gouging, closing corporate tax loopholes, raising and indexing the minimum wage, and banning private-equity purchases of homes and farmland [2][3].
Healthcare is a key area of divergence between the candidates' proposals. Hinson favors a market-oriented, incremental approach focused on lowering premiums and drug prices through pharmacy-benefit-manager transparency and accountability, alongside strengthening rural hospitals and maternal care [2][3]. Turek, who views healthcare as a human right, proposes a public option, protecting and expanding Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, restoring full Medicaid funding for 110,000 Iowans he states are at risk of losing coverage, and capping insulin at $25 per month and other prescription costs [3][4]. Despite their differences, both candidates support some tax relief, reducing prescription-drug costs, and improving rural access to care. Their core disagreement lies in whether affordability should be addressed through tax and spending restraint and market reforms or through stronger federal controls and expanded public coverage [2][3][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Iowans are earning more, paying less after Trump's return - Ashley Hinson for Iowaashleyhinson.com
  2. 2Issues - Ashley Hinson for Iowaashleyhinson.com
  3. 3Pushing for Change | Josh Turek's Platformturek4iowa.com
  4. 4U.S. Senate - Josh Turek | Candidates in Eastern Iowa Electionsthegazette.com
  5. 52026 Iowa Senate race: Josh Turek (D) vs. Ashley Hinson (R)2026election.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of October 22, 2026, prediction markets show Republican Ashley Hinson as a narrow favorite over Democrat Josh Turek, with Kalshi indicating approximately 58–59% for Hinson and Polymarket at 56–57% [1][2][3]. This slim lead does not represent a decisive projection [1][2][3]. The final debate on October 20 served as a recent market catalyst, with Kalshi reporting Hinson at 56% against Turek at 44% afterward [4]. Material market price movements can result from debates, late endorsements, campaign scandals, major spending, or new high-quality polls [2][3][4].
Potential upside for Turek includes a late polling-confirmed Democratic national environment and economic backlash among Iowa farmers and other voters due to fuel, fertilizer, tariff, and cost pressures [5]. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand's turnout assistance is another factor, though one survey found roughly 6% backed both Sand and Hinson [5]. Bullish catalysts for Hinson involve Iowa's underlying Republican lean, the open-seat replacement advantage for the GOP, and Republican-aligned economic messaging, including the announced Iowa steel-mill project [5]. A key bearish risk for Hinson is that market pricing may underweight the polling signal; for example, a 535 model gave Turek a 56% win probability and Iowa Ledger's recent average narrowly favored Turek [6][7][8]. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with polling open 7 a.m.–8 p.m. Iowa time [9][10][11].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Iowa Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Pollskalshi.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-senate-election-winner?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  3. 3Iowa Senate 2026 Odds and Forecast | Nijinnmidterms.nijinn.io
  4. 4Iowa Senate odds: Hinson leads Turek 56% to 44% after final debatenews.kalshi.com
  5. 5Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska Senate Seats In Play, Traders Warydefirate.com
  6. 6Iowa 2026 polling average · Iowa Ledgeriowaledger.com
  7. 7YouGov finds Turek and Hinson a point apart in Iowa, and our estimate holds at 56% · 535535.wtf
  8. 8Iowa Senate 2026 — Odds & Model Forecast | Pollsscopes.com
  9. 9Three Year Election Calendar | Iowa Secretary of State - Paul D. Patesos.iowa.gov
  10. 10General Election | Iowa Secretary of State - Paul D. Patesos.iowa.gov
  11. 11Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Accessfec.gov