Short Answer

Bill Hagerty is highly likely to win the 2026 Tennessee Senate race, supported by overwhelming polling data showing a 25-30 point lead, non-partisan forecasts, and a significant fundraising advantage (96.0%).

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The establishment of the general election matchup following the August 2026 primaries provides the core context for this market. The race is a rematch between incumbent Republican Senator Bill Hagerty and Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw. The provided data points, which begin on August 26, reflect trading after this ticket was set.
No specific news or development cited in the provided context explains the subsequent decline in the contract's price. The market's valuation of a Republican victory fell from 5.7% to 1.7% in late August and early September. The total volume of 266 contracts suggests limited market participation, where price changes may not be driven by significant new information or broad conviction.
  • Since last update (~28d): Bill Hagerty's model probability rose 2.5pp; market fell 1.8pp, flipping the edge.
  • Marquita Bradshaw's model probability decreased 2.5pp, while market fell 1.8pp, widening the edge.
  • Our confidence score increased by 3.0pp, now reflecting higher certainty in the outcome.
  • Headline model probability decreased by 2.5pp; headline market probability fell 1.8pp.
  • Republicans are favored; Hagerty leads by 25-30 points in recent polls.
  • Hagerty maintains a $15.97 million fundraising advantage in a reliably Republican state.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Marquita Bradshaw 1.7% 1.0% Marquita Bradshaw faces significant polling deficits and a massive fundraising disadvantage in a reliably Republican state.
Bill Hagerty 96.0% 99.0% Bill Hagerty leads significantly in polls and forecasts, backed by a massive fundraising advantage in a Republican state.

Current Context

The 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Early voting for the general election will take place from October 14 to October 29, 2026 [1][2]. Following the August 2026 primary elections, the contest features a rematch between incumbent Republican Senator Bill Hagerty and Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Senator Hagerty currently maintains a significant lead in current forecasts. Prediction markets and recent polling indicate a substantial lead for Senator Hagerty over Marquita Bradshaw [9][10]. As of September 4, 2026, Polymarket showed Republican odds at 97 cents compared to 3 cents for Democrats [9][10]. Decision Desk HQ, as of September 9, 2026, forecasts Bill Hagerty as 'safe' to win the seat, with a 97% probability and a projected margin of R+20 [5][8].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Elections Calendar | Tennessee Secretary of Statesos.tn.gov
  2. 2https://sos-prod.tnsosgovfiles.com/s3fs-public/document/Key%20Dates%20-%202026_0.pdf?VersionId=BlUofb7_chmj7rEfMw.akqY6xaoaoQF9sos-prod.tnsosgovfiles.com
  3. 3U.S. Senate | Voter Guide: 2026 Midterm General Election • Tennessee Lookouttennesseelookout.com
  4. 42026 United States Senate election in Tennessee - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  5. 52026 Tennessee US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2026 (August 6...ballotpedia.org
  7. 72026 Tennessee US Senate Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Tennessee US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9August 2026 Beacon Poll Resultsbeacontn.org
  10. 102026 Tennessee Senate race — polls, candidates & voter guide — IJRijr.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Here are the contract rules for the Kalshi prediction market:

A "Yes" resolution for a specific candidate's contract occurs if their respective party wins the Tennessee Senate race. Conversely, a "No" resolution for a candidate's contract occurs if their respective party loses the race. The event is set to begin on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, with the maximum payout date being November 3, 2027. The market's settlement condition is solely determined by the winning party of the Tennessee Senate race.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Bill Hagerty $0.98 $0.04 96%
Marquita Bradshaw $0.04 $0.98 2%

Market Discussion

The 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, is a rematch between incumbent Republican Bill Hagerty and Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw [1][2]. Political forecasters and prediction markets widely consider the race a Safe Republican hold, giving Hagerty a 97–99% probability of winning, with recent odds showing the Republican outcome at approximately 96–97% [3][4][5][6]. This strong Republican favoritism is attributed to Tennessee's "deep-red" status and significant fundraising disparity [4][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1U.S. Senate | Voter Guide: 2026 Midterm General Election • Tennessee Lookouttennesseelookout.com
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Tennessee - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Tennessee Senate Race 2026 — Bill Hagerty Safe Republican Hold | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com
  4. 42026 Tennessee US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Tennessee Senate Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Will a Republican Win the Tennessee Senate Election?lines.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score64Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses under 1% of the price to slippage.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
81Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
62Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

Marquita Bradshaw36
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Bill Hagerty64
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Bill Hagerty—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Marquita Bradshaw—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Bill Hagerty100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Marquita Bradshaw100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
64Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 63 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.4c slippage (<1% of a 98c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 98c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 98c contract)

Bill Hagerty64Market scoreLiquidity64Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 64
Liquidity
64 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Marquita Bradshaw36Market scoreLiquidity36Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 36
Liquidity
36 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What do recent polls and non-partisan forecasts indicate about the likely margin of victory in the 2026 Hagerty vs. Bradshaw race?

Hagerty Lead in Aug 2026 Poll25 percentage points [1][2]
Projected Vote Share for Hagerty65% [3][4]
Hagerty Win Probability97% to 99.3% [3][4][1][2]
Polls and forecasts project a substantial lead for Bill Hagerty. Forecast models for the 2026 Tennessee U.S. Senate race indicate that incumbent Bill Hagerty is likely to win by approximately 20 to 30 percentage points. For example, Pollsmax anticipates a vote share of 65% for Hagerty against 35% for Marquita Bradshaw, suggesting nearly a 30 percentage point margin of victory [3][4]. A poll conducted among likely voters between August 15 and August 26, 2026, also showed Hagerty ahead of Bradshaw by 25 percentage points, with 58% to 33% respectively [1][2].
Hagerty is widely expected to secure a decisive victory. As of September 9, 2026, the Tennessee U.S. Senate race is widely considered a "Solid Republican" victory for incumbent Bill Hagerty against challenger Marquita Bradshaw [3]. Prediction markets place Hagerty's probability of winning between 97% and 99.3% [3][4]. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) also forecasts the race as 'Safe Republican,' projecting a 97% probability of victory for Hagerty [1][2]. Both candidates secured their respective party nominations after the August 6, 2026, primary [1][2][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 12026 Tennessee US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Tennessee US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 Tennessee Senate Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  4. 4Senate Election Odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  5. 52026 Tennessee US Senate Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

6. How do the 2026 campaign fundraising totals and cash on hand compare between Bill Hagerty and Marquita Bradshaw?

Bill Hagerty Total Raised$15.97 million (through June 30, 2026) [1][2]
Marquita Bradshaw Total Raised$2,257 (through June 30, 2026) [1][2]
Bill Hagerty Cash on Hand$5.23 million (through June 30, 2026) [1][2]
Bill Hagerty holds a significant financial advantage in the 2026 campaign. As of the most recent reporting period through June 30, 2026, the incumbent Republican reported raising $15.97 million and maintaining $5.23 million in cash on hand [1][2]. For the 2025–2026 election cycle, his principal campaign committee, Team Hagerty, documented total receipts of $7,162,897.10 and total disbursements of $3,855,936.81 as of July 17, 2026 [3][4].
Marquita Bradshaw's campaign finances are considerably lower than her opponent's. The Democratic challenger reported significantly lower figures for the same period, having raised $2,257 and holding $1,042 in cash on hand as of June 30, 2026 [1][2]. Her committee, Marquita Bradshaw for U S Senate, recorded total receipts of $2,257.07 and total disbursements of $1,293.13 for the 2025–2026 cycle, with these figures reported as of July 17, 2026 [5]. This indicates a substantial fundraising disparity between Bill Hagerty and Marquita Bradshaw, highlighting a significant difference in available campaign financial resources [1].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Why Marquita Bradshaw (D) Will Win the Tennessee Senate Raceoddsshopper.com
  2. 2United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2026 (August 6...ballotpedia.org
  3. 3HAGERTY, BILL - Candidate overview | FECfec.gov
  4. 4TEAM HAGERTY - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  5. 5MARQUITA BRADSHAW FOR U S SENATE - committee overview | FECfec.gov

7. What specific voter demographics must Marquita Bradshaw mobilize, and by what margins, to create a viable path to victory in November 2026?

Bill Hagerty Win Probability97% (Decision Desk HQ, September 9, 2026) [1][2]
Projected Margin of VictoryR+20 percentage points (Decision Desk HQ) [1][2]
Fundraising (Bill Hagerty)Over $15.9 million (FEC filings, July 2026) [1][3]
Republican incumbent Bill Hagerty is strongly favored to win Tennessee's 2026 U.S. Senate race. Decision Desk HQ rated the contest as 'Safe Republican' as of September 9, 2026, assigning Hagerty a 97% probability of victory with a projected margin of approximately R+20 percentage points [1][2]. Recent polling conducted from August 15–26, 2026, further indicates this advantage, showing Hagerty at 58% support compared to Democrat Marquita Bradshaw's 33%, reflecting a 25-point lead for the incumbent [1][3].
Hagerty holds a significant fundraising advantage over Marquita Bradshaw. According to FEC filings as of July 2026, Bill Hagerty has raised over $15.9 million and spent over $10.7 million. In contrast, Marquita Bradshaw raised approximately $41,985 and spent $40,942 [1][3]. This substantial financial disparity, combined with Tennessee's strong lean towards the Republican party, presents a significant challenge for Bradshaw's campaign. In their previous encounter in the 2020 election, Bill Hagerty defeated Marquita Bradshaw by a margin of 27 percentage points [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 12026 Tennessee US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 U.S. Senate Forecast | Decision Desk HQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 Tennessee US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Marquita Bradshaw wins TN Democratic Senate primarynashvillebanner.com

8. How do the policy platforms of Bill Hagerty and Marquita Bradshaw differ on key issues for Tennessee voters, such as economic policy and healthcare?

IncumbentBill Hagerty (Republican) [1][2][3]
ChallengerMarquita Bradshaw (Democrat) [1][2][3]
2026 Policy DetailSpecific healthcare and economic policy platforms not deeply detailed [1][2][4]
Incumbent Senator Bill Hagerty will face Marquita Bradshaw in Tennessee's 2026 election. Republican Bill Hagerty, a pro-Trump conservative with a background in private equity and economic development, is seeking a second term in the U.S. Senate [1][2][4][3]. His Democratic challenger is Marquita Bradshaw, an environmental activist and consultant focused on progressive issues. This contest marks a rematch of their 2020 election [1][2][4][3].
Detailed policy specifics for the 2026 election are currently limited. Reports indicate that specific, deeply detailed policy platforms for both Bill Hagerty and Marquita Bradshaw on key issues like healthcare and economic policy are not extensively covered in current reporting [1][2][4]. While direct comparisons for this campaign cycle remain restricted, the candidates are generally understood to align with the established platforms of their respective parties in Tennessee, with their detailed policy positions often extending no further than general ideological leanings [1][2][4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty will face Democratic challenger Marquita...wpln.org
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Tennessee - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Sen. Bill Hagerty announces run for second term as TN Senatorwsmv.com
  4. 4Scoop: Sen. Bill Hagerty will run for reelection in 2026 - Axiosaxios.com
  5. 52026 Tennessee US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Tennessee US Senate Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

9. What potential 'black swan' events or major political shifts before November 2026 could meaningfully alter the outcome for incumbent Bill Hagerty?

Win Probability97% (as of September 4, 2026) [1]
Polling LeadHagerty 58% vs. Bradshaw 33% (August 2026) [2][1]
Race ClassificationSafe Republican [2][1]
Senator Bill Hagerty is a strong favorite for re-election to the U.S. Senate. The race is currently characterized as "Safe Republican," reflecting his strong position [2][1]. Hagerty secured his party's nomination unopposed on August 6, 2026 [2]. Recent polling from August 2026 indicates Hagerty leading with approximately 58% support against his Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw, who holds 33% [2][1]. Further reinforcing his advantageous standing, Decision Desk HQ assigns him a 97% win probability as of September 4, 2026 [1]. Tennessee's consistent status as a solidly Republican state offers Hagerty a significant inherent advantage [3].
Despite the lead, "black swan" events could theoretically alter the outcome. Before November 2026, potential major political shifts or unforeseen "black swan" events could theoretically impact the election results [3][4][5][6]. Such scenarios include significant geopolitical escalations, exemplified by the ongoing U.S. conflict with Iran, which commenced in August 2026 [3][4]. These escalations could bring associated economic pressures, such as rising inflation and gas prices [3][4]. Additional theoretical risks involve domestic economic shocks or unexpected disputes related to election administration occurring late in the cycle [4][5]. Furthermore, analysts have acknowledged the remote, theoretical possibility of Hagerty departing for a high-level federal administration position; however, he has consistently remained in his Senate seat [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 12026 Tennessee US Senate Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Tennessee - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Iran war rattles the economy, shakes up U.S. Senate raceswashingtontimes.com
  4. 4From Hanging Chads to Hanging By a Thread - 'Alternative' UScontinuumeconomics.com
  5. 5The 2026 Midterms: The most likely midterm scenario may be an...blogs.lse.ac.uk
  6. 6TN Senate 2026 - Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 United States Senate election in Tennessee features a rematch between incumbent Republican Senator Bill Hagerty and Democratic challenger Marquita Bradshaw, following primary elections on August 6, 2026 [1][2]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [3][4][5][6][7][8]. As of September 9, 2026, Decision Desk HQ forecasts Bill Hagerty with a 97% probability of winning, projecting a Republican margin of R+20 [5]. Prediction markets for overall U.S. Senate control remain competitive, with various platforms displaying divergent outlooks [9][10][11].
Key catalysts for Senate election prediction markets include unexpected polling results in competitive races, the entry or withdrawal of candidates, court rulings on electoral maps or candidate eligibility, and significant liquidity events that may cause price shifts [9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1U.S. Senate | Voter Guide: 2026 Midterm General Election • Tennessee Lookouttennesseelookout.com
  2. 22026 United States Senate election in Tennessee - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 32026 election and voting dates - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 Midterm Primary Election Calendar - The New York Timesnytimes.com
  5. 52026 Tennessee US Senate Forecastvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Tennessee US Senate Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7United States Senate election in Tennessee, 2026 (August 6...ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Maria Brewer (Tennessee) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  9. 9Senate 2026 Odds: Live Prediction Market Tracker for Chamber Control – Bellwetherbellwether.market
  10. 102026 Live Midterms Forecasts by State | Kalshikalshi.com
  11. 112026 U.S. Senate forecast — Akashicakashic.app