Short Answer

Adam Hamilton is not expected to outperform the polls. The market prices this outcome at 16.0%, while the model suggests a higher 30.6%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's most significant price movement was an 82-point drop on November 8, from 98% to 16%. This move coincided with the confirmation of official election results. Adam Hamilton won the Kansas Senate race by a 5.0 point margin. This result exceeded the market's benchmark, a RealClearPolitics polling average showing Hamilton ahead by 4.1 points. The market resolved positively based on this outcome. The sharp price decline on November 8 is anomalous given the positive resolution. Just after the election on November 4, the market had spiked 53 points to 99% as initial news reports and vote counts showed Hamilton winning and beating the polling average.
A smaller spike of 8 percentage points occurred on October 25. This move was driven by media attention from Adam Hamilton's campaign visit to Oakley, Kansas. The visit was to the site of an earlier viral town hall incident involving his opponent, which generated social media engagement and was perceived as a successful campaign tactic.
  • Yes: Hamilton's 3.5-point victory surpassed the RealClearPolitics average of +3.
  • Yes: Hamilton secured significantly more small-dollar donor contributions than Marshall.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 16.0% 30.6% Adam Hamilton may receive more votes than current polling suggests.

Current Context

Adam Hamilton won the Kansas Senate race. Hamilton secured 51.0% of the vote (561,143 votes) against Roger Marshall's 46.0% (505,558 votes) in the 2026 Kansas Senate race, a margin of approximately +5.0 points [1][2][3][4]. This made him Kansas's first Democratic senator since 1932. The market "Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls?" had a benchmark of the RCP average of Hamilton +4.1 at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 [5][6]. Hamilton's actual margin was approximately +5.0 points [5]. The market priced YES at 99% and was scheduled to resolve on November 10, 2027, based on certified results from the Kansas Secretary of State [5]. The AP called the race for Hamilton on election night at approximately 11:25 PM ET [4].
Prediction markets dramatically shifted in Hamilton's favor throughout the campaign. In January 2026, a Tavern Research poll showed Marshall leading Hamilton 54%-46%, and prediction markets initially favored Marshall at 77% and 82% [7][8]. The Cook Political Report rated the race Safe Republican and Sabato's Crystal Ball rated it Likely Republican at that time [7][8]. Hamilton, the founding pastor of the Church of the Resurrection, won the Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, with approximately 35% of the vote in an 11-way race [9][10][11][12]. By Election Day, Hamilton's odds on the platform had increased from 17% in early September to 99%; another market resolved with Hamilton at 100% [13][14][4]. Over $12 million was traded on this race [13]. Final-week polls strongly favored Hamilton, with Washington Post/SSRG showing Hamilton +9, AtlasIntel +7, Survey 160 +7, and Emerson College +4 [15][16][17]. The Frothier average of 19 polls had Hamilton at 49.7% versus Marshall at 45.5% [17]. The race was Kansas's most expensive in history. Hamilton raised $4.2 million (18% from small donors), and Marshall raised $4.8 million (4% from small donors) [5][18]. Hamilton set a Kansas fundraising record by collecting nearly $3.7 million within his first 62 days [12]. The election results represented a significant shift from the 2024 presidential election, where Trump won by 16 points; counties mostly done reporting voted 21 points more Democratic, resulting in a D+5 Senate margin [1][2].
Sources (18)
  1. 1Kansas U.S. Senate Election Resultsnytimes.com
  2. 22026 Kansas US Senate General Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3Election Resultswibw.com
  4. 4Kansas Senate Race 2026 Odds: Lawsuits Cost Marshall | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  5. 5Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  6. 6Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Megachurch Pastor Jumps into Kansas Senate Race as Democrat | The Front Pagefrnt.com
  8. 8Adam Hamilton Chances of Beating Roger Marshall for Kansas Senate—Pollsnewsweek.com
  9. 9Adam Hamilton, Megachurch Pastor, Won a Democratic Senate Primary. Now Comes the Hard Part. - Christianity Todaychristianitytoday.com
  10. 10Adam Hamilton, Mega-Church Pastor, Wins Dem Senate Primary. Now Comes the Hard Part. - Word&Waywordandway.org
  11. 112026 Kansas US Senate Democratic Primary Results | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  12. 12Big Money and a Megachurch Pulpit: Adam Hamilton Wins 11-Way Kansas Democratic Senate Primary to Challenge Roger Marshallpolitical.org
  13. 13Adam Hamilton wins Kansas Senate race: Kalshi projectsnews.kalshi.com
  14. 14https://polymarket.com/event/kansas-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
  15. 15October 2026 Kansas Poll: Hamilton Maintains Edge over Marshall in Toss-up Election - Emerson Pollingemersoncollegepolling.com
  16. 16Kansas Senate Polls and Forecast 2026: Hamilton vs Marshall | Poliwavepoliwave.com
  17. 17Kansas Senate Polls 2026: Hamilton vs. Marshall | Frothierfrothier.com
  18. 18Kansas Senate: Democrat and pastor Adam Hamilton winsnpr.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 November 08, 2026: 82.0pp drop

Price decreased from 98.0% to 16.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The primary driver of the price movement in the "Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls?" market was the confirmation of official election results and their comparison to polling data. Adam Hamilton won the Kansas Senate race on November 3, 2026, with a 5-point margin, but this did not sufficiently exceed the Real Clear Polling average of 4.1 points to trigger the "Yes" outcome for outperforming polls [1][2][3]. This realization, following the election, caused the market for "Yes" to crash to 2% by November 6, 2026, as final results confirmed Hamilton's margin was in line with averages [4][5]. Social media was not a primary driver, as the movement was directly tied to the dissemination of official election results and data analysis.

📈 November 04, 2026: 53.0pp spike

Price increased from 46.0% to 99.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The 53.0 percentage point spike on November 4, 2026, in the "Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls?" market was primarily driven by traditional news reporting and the emergence of election results [4]. Following Adam Hamilton's reported win in the Kansas Senate race on November 3, 2026 [3], vote counts solidified, making it increasingly clear that his actual margin of victory (+4.8 points) was likely to exceed the 4.1-point lead from the RealClearPolitics polling average [6][7][8]. While social media activity celebrated Hamilton's historic victory [9], there is no evidence that it directly influenced the market's specific assessment of polling outperformance on November 4. Therefore, social media was mostly noise for this market's movement, with traditional news and developing election results serving as the primary driver.

📈 October 25, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 35.0% to 43.0%

Outcome: Yes

What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point spike on October 25, 2026, was Adam Hamilton's campaign visit to Oakley, Kansas, the site of an earlier viral town hall incident involving Marshall [4][10]. This strategic visit generated significant media attention and social media engagement, directly coinciding with the price movement [4][10]. Although specific social media posts are not detailed, the event's connection to a past "viral" moment indicates that social media acted as a contributing accelerant, amplifying awareness alongside traditional news.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2Adam Hamilton (Kansas) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Pastor Adam Hamilton ousts GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, Democrats' 1st Senate win in Kansas in 94 yearsapnews.com
  4. 4Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  5. 5Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? | Predictboardpredictionmarkets.exchange
  6. 6How accurately did polling, Polymarket data predict 2026 election results?newsnationnow.com
  7. 7Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  8. 8Kansas Senate Race 2026 Odds: Lawsuits Cost Marshall | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  9. 9Kansas Senate flip by Adam Hamilton thrills voters nationwide | Kansas City Starkansascity.com
  10. 10Hamilton revisits viral town hall moment as Vance rallies GOP | Kansas City Starkansascity.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Adam Hamilton's final lead in the election is greater than 4.1 percentage points, which is the stated lead from the polls. Conversely, it resolves to NO if his final lead is less than or equal to 4.1 percentage points. The maximum payout date for this market is November 9, 2027, and settlement relies on the final election results, with 98.9% of the vote already counted.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.99 $0.02 16%

Market Discussion

The market "Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls?" resolves "Yes" if Hamilton's certified margin of victory exceeds the 4.1-point RCP average margin (Hamilton 50.1%, Marshall 46.0%) as of 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Although unofficial results from November 3, 2026, show Hamilton won with a 5-point margin (51.0% to 46.0%), which exceeds the 4.1-point threshold [6][7][5], the market is currently priced at 2% for "Yes" as of November 8, 2026 [2][3][4]. This low probability suggests traders anticipate that the final certified results, expected by November 10, 2027, may adjust the margin below the required 4.1 points [2][3][4].

Sources (7)
  1. 1Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls: Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  3. 3Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  4. 4Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? | Predictboardpredictionmarkets.exchange
  5. 52026 United States Senate election in Kansas - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Kansas Senate Race 2026 Odds: Lawsuits Cost Marshall | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  7. 7Election Resultswibw.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 86 Strong
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score93Strong
Trade quality20% of score59Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score86Strong

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
92Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
75Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Yes75
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
41Mixed

Some moves lacked volume

1 contract

Yes41
Mixed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Yes95
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
59Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 75 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (<1% of a 98.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

YesPrimary75Market scoreLiquidity75Move quality41Rule clarity95
Why 75
Liquidity
75 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
41 · Mixed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 8, 2026

6. What key campaign events in October 2026 accelerated Adam Hamilton's polling lead over Roger Marshall?

Hamilton lead (Emerson Poll)49% to 45% (October 26-28, 2026) [1][2]
Hamilton lead (WaPo Poll)52% to 43% (October 22-26, 2026) [3][4]
Democratic Ad SpendingOver $27 million in late October [5][6]
Adam Hamilton's polling lead significantly accelerated in October 2026. This surge was primarily driven by increased Democratic advertising spending, the Kansas Senate debate, and a substantial shift in support among independent voters [1][5][6]. These factors collectively led to Hamilton achieving the largest polling advantage recorded in October and prompted a reclassification of the race to 'Toss-up' [3][4].
Multiple polls confirmed Hamilton's growing lead and campaign effectiveness. For instance, the Emerson College poll, conducted from October 26-28, 2026, following the Kansas Senate debate, showed Hamilton leading Marshall 49% to 45% [1][2]. This represented a notable increase from his 2-point lead in September, indicating the impact of the debate and subsequent ad campaigns [1][2]. Democrats invested over $27 million in TV and digital advertisements in the latter half of October alone, making this the most expensive Kansas Senate race in state history [5][6]. Further illustrating this momentum, the Washington Post/George Mason University/Braun Research poll, conducted from October 22-26, 2026, reported Hamilton ahead by 52% to 43%, marking the largest lead recorded in any October poll [3][4]. This accelerating support for Hamilton also led the Cook Political Report to reclassify the race from 'Lean Republican' to 'Toss-up' on October 13, 2026 [4]. A significant demographic change contributing to this trend was Kansas Independents favoring Hamilton by more than a 2-to-1 margin over Marshall [1].
Sources (6)
  1. 1New poll shows Hamilton leading Marshall in tight Kansas Senate raceksn.com
  2. 2Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall in narrow Kansas Senate pollthehill.com
  3. 3We polled Kansas. Democrats wanted to talk. Republicans, not so much.washingtonpost.com
  4. 4United States Senate election in Kansas, 2026ballotpedia.org
  5. 5Marshall-Hamilton race has become most expensive...kcur.org
  6. 6Pastor Adam Hamilton ousts GOP Sen. Roger Marshall...opb.org

7. How accurate were final-week polls from firms like AtlasIntel and Emerson College in predicting Hamilton's actual margin over Marshall?

Hamilton Actual Winning Margin+5.0 points [1]
AtlasIntel Poll Margin+7 margin (52% Hamilton, 45% Marshall) [2][3][4]
Emerson College Poll Margin+4 margin (49% Hamilton, 45% Marshall) [5][6][2][3]
Final polls exhibited varying accuracy in predicting Hamilton's actual margin. Adam Hamilton ultimately secured a victory over Marshall with a margin of +5.0 points [1]. AtlasIntel's final poll, conducted from October 28 to November 1, 2026, forecast Hamilton receiving 52% of the vote against Marshall's 45%, projecting a +7 margin [2][3][4]. This prediction from AtlasIntel overestimated Hamilton's actual winning margin by 2 percentage points [2][3][4].
Emerson College's poll more closely approximated Hamilton's final margin. In contrast, Emerson College's final poll, fielded between October 26 and 28, 2026, indicated Hamilton with 49% support and Marshall with 45%, which translated to a +4 margin [5][6][2][3]. A report by The Hill presented a slightly different +3.5 margin, based on 48.7% for Hamilton and 45.2% for Marshall [6]. Overall, this poll underestimated Hamilton's actual +5.0 margin by approximately 1 percentage point [5][6][2][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Kansas U.S. Senate Election Resultsnytimes.com
  2. 2Kansas Senate Election Results 2026: Marshall vs Hamiltonpollcheck.co.uk
  3. 32026 Polls: Kansas Senate270towin.com
  4. 4Kansas | Atlas Intel | Hamilton +7 | Holscher +4reddit.com
  5. 5Kansas Senate polls show Democrat leading by up to 9...usatoday.com
  6. 6Hamilton holds slight lead over Marshall in Kansas Senate...thehill.com

8. How did Adam Hamilton and Roger Marshall's fundraising sources compare, specifically regarding the percentage of contributions from small-dollar donors?

Hamilton Small-Dollar Donor Percentage18% of $4.2 million raised from small-dollar donors (contributions <= $200) [1]
Marshall Small-Dollar Donor Percentage4.0% of $4.8 million raised from small-dollar donors [1]
Total Spending in Kansas Senate Race$117 million ($22.5 million by campaigns, $94.5 million by outside groups) [2]
Adam Hamilton significantly outpaced Roger Marshall in small-dollar donor contributions. Hamilton received 18% of his $4.2 million in campaign contributions from small-dollar donors (contributions of $200 or less), a significantly higher percentage compared to Roger Marshall, who received only 4.0% of his $4.8 million from this group [1]. Individual contributions accounted for 86.4% ($16,526,008) of Hamilton's total campaign receipts of $19,175,044. In contrast, individual contributions made up 48.5% ($2,514,154) of Marshall's total campaign receipts of $5,350,064 [2].
Marshall relied more on PAC contributions than Hamilton did. Marshall's campaign received 36.6% ($1,895,775) of its receipts from Political Action Committees (PACs), whereas PAC contributions constituted only 1.3% ($245,500) of Hamilton's campaign funding. Both candidates also received transfers from authorized committees, accounting for 12.1% of Hamilton's receipts and 14.9% of Marshall's [2]. Hamilton demonstrated robust fundraising, reporting a $10.6 million haul in Q3 2026 across his Senate campaign and joint fundraising committees [3]. Furthermore, a social media post indicated that Hamilton led Marshall 50 to 1 in Kansas contributions following the August primary [4].
Hamilton's side received a larger share of the overall campaign funding. The Kansas Senate race garnered $117 million in total spending, with $22.5 million spent directly by campaigns and a substantial $94.5 million by outside groups. Hamilton's side benefited from a larger portion of this funding, securing $74.8 million (63.9%), compared to Marshall's side, which received $42.3 million (36.1%) [2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  2. 2Kansas Senate Race 2026: All the Moneyvotelog.org
  3. 3Hamilton reports $10.6M Q3 haul for Kansas Senate racepolitico.com
  4. 4Adam Hamilton leads Roger Marshall 50 to 1 in Kansas...facebook.com

9. What specific polls comprised the RealClearPolitics average on November 3, 2026, which served as the official benchmark for the market?

Official RCP Benchmark (Hamilton vs. Marshall)Hamilton 50.1%, Marshall 46.0% (Hamilton +4.1) at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026 [1]
Actual Election Result MarginHamilton won with a +5.0 point margin [2][3]
RCP Polling Twitter Post (Nov 3, 2026)Hamilton 49.8%, Marshall 46.2% (Hamilton +3.6) [4]
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average served as the official benchmark for the Kansas Senate race. This average, designated as the official benchmark for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas, was recorded at 10 AM ET on November 3, 2026, showing Adam Hamilton at 50.1% and Roger Marshall at 46.0%, resulting in a Hamilton +4.1 margin [1]. The RCP Average for this Kansas Senate race (Marshall vs. Hamilton) specifically incorporated polls from several organizations, including InsiderAdvantage, Trafalgar Group, YouGov, NY Times/Siena, Emerson, and co/efficient [5].
Slight variations existed, but Hamilton ultimately outperformed the benchmark. Other RCP averages showed minor differences around the benchmark time; for instance, the RCP Average for the Kansas Senate race spanning September 8 to October 28, 2026, indicated Hamilton +3.7 (Hamilton 49.7%, Marshall 46.0%) on the three-way page [2]. The RCP Polling Twitter account also posted on November 3, 2026, showing Adam Hamilton at 49.8% and Roger Marshall at 46.2%, for a net Hamilton +3.6, which varied slightly from the 10 AM ET snapshot used as the official benchmark [4]. Ultimately, Adam Hamilton won the Kansas Senate race with a +5.0 point margin, exceeding the +4.1 point RCP polling benchmark [2][3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 22026 Kansas Senate - Marshall vs. Hamilton vs. Grahamrealclearpolling.com
  3. 3Kansas U.S. Senate Election Resultsnytimes.com
  4. 4Election Week Monday: 2026 Kansas Senate Race 🔵Adam...x.com
  5. 52026 Kansas Senate - Marshall vs. Hamiltonrealclearpolling.com

10. How did the 21-point Democratic swing from the 2024 presidential election manifest at the county level in the 2026 Kansas Senate race?

Overall Democratic Swing (2026 KS Senate)21 points [1][2][3]
Average Democratic Shift (larger KS counties)20.6 points [1][2][3]
Seward County Swing (R to D)More than 45 percentage points [2]
The 2026 Kansas Senate race demonstrated a significant Democratic swing. The election results showed a 21-point statewide shift towards Democrats compared to the 2024 presidential election [1][2][3]. This broad movement was particularly evident at the county level, where larger Kansas counties registered an average gain of 20.6 percentage points for Democrats [1][2][3]. This trend resulted in a reversal of partisan control in Sedgwick County and substantial improvements in Democratic margins across various other areas [3].
Several key counties experienced dramatic shifts in partisan support. Seward County, for example, saw an impressive swing of over 45 percentage points from Republicans to Democrats between the 2024 presidential election and the 2026 Senate election [2]. In the Kansas City suburbs, Johnson County moved from a Democratic margin of D+8.5 in 2024 to D+27.9 in 2026, while Sedgwick County, which encompasses Wichita, flipped from R+13.8 to D+7.6 [3]. Wyandotte County in Kansas City, Kansas, increased its Democratic margin from D+23.9 to D+48.7, and Shawnee County, home to Topeka, shifted from D+0.5 to D+18.8 [3]. Other notable examples of this Democratic swing include Leavenworth County, which went from R+22.8 to R+0.9; Butler County, which moved from R+41.2 to R+23.5; and Reno County, which changed from R+34.5 to R+15.8 [3]. Riley County, where 42% of the population is under 30, was also highlighted as a significant area contributing to this Democratic trend [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1How Democrats reshaped the Senate, in charts and mapscnn.com
  2. 2Where Trump and Republicans lost the midtermstheguardian.com
  3. 3Kansas Election Results 2026: Hamilton Wins the Senate...cryptoticker.io

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The most significant bullish catalyst for Adam Hamilton's prediction market odds emerged on October 29, 2026, when a CNN/SSRS poll (conducted October 20-26) showed Hamilton leading 49-45, coinciding with the RNC's cancellation of Trump's Salina rally [1][2]. This convergence triggered a 9-cent jump in Hamilton's odds within a single session [1][2]. Additional support came from the Washington Post/Schar poll (October 22-26), which indicated Hamilton up 9 points at 52-43, and an Emerson College poll (October 26-28) showing him at 49-45 [1][2]. Hamilton's contract price rose from 17% in early September to 25 cents on September 16, reaching 49 cents on October 29. It closed above 50 cents for the first time at 52 cents on October 30 [3][1][2]. By Election Eve, the price stood at 62 cents, ultimately settling at $1 on November 3, 2026, at 11:58 PM ET [3][1][2]. Hamilton won the Kansas Senate race on November 3, 2026, with a +5.0 point margin (51.0% to 46.0%), exceeding the RCP average benchmark of +4.1 points [4][5][6][1].
Initial assessments rated the race as 'Solid Republican' by Cook Political Report, shifting to 'Toss Up' on October 6, 2026 [1][7]. Bearish factors for Hamilton included Kansas's Trump +16 state status, Marshall's incumbency, and his popularity concerning the farm bill [6][1][7][8]. Trump and VP Vance visited Kansas twice, and Marshall secured a Teamsters endorsement [1][7][8]. Hamilton also contended with low name recognition, with 39% expressing no opinion compared to 14% for Marshall [1][7]. Conversely, Marshall's campaign faced setbacks from negative press regarding over 700 lawsuits against patients for unpaid medical bills, reported by NYT on September 8, 2026 [8]. His favorability was underwater at 42% favorable versus 44% unfavorable, and he was booed at the first debate [8]. County-level results showed significant Democratic shifts in Johnson, Sedgwick, Douglas, and Wyandotte counties, which voted 17 to 25 points more Democratic than in the 2024 presidential election [5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 10, 2027
  • Closes: November 10, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 1Kansas Senate Race 2026: The Bet That Moved Nothing | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
  2. 2Kansas Senate odds: Democrat Adam Hamilton surges to 63% on Kalshi with Election Day hours awaynews.kalshi.com
  3. 3Adam Hamilton wins Kansas Senate race: Kalshi projectsnews.kalshi.com
  4. 4Will Adam Hamilton outperform the polls? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  5. 5Kansas U.S. Senate Election Resultsnytimes.com
  6. 6Kansas Senate: Democrat and pastor Adam Hamilton winsnpr.org
  7. 7Hamilton vs. Marshall Midterm Predictions: Who Will Win Kansas Senate?covers.com
  8. 8Roger Marshall’s Chances of Losing Kansas Senate Race After Raucous Debatenewsweek.com