Short Answer

Ashley Moody is expected to win the Florida Senate seat in the November 3, 2026 special election. Her consistent lead in polls, forecaster ratings, and other prediction markets drives this expectation, which the market prices at 89.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's modest firming appears tied to a University of North Florida poll showing Republican Ashley Moody holding a slim lead in the 2026 special election. Reports from outlets including WLRN on October 21 detailed the tightening race against Democrat Angie Nixon. The price for a Republican victory moved from 9.2% on October 15 to 10.0% by October 22, a minor adjustment following the poll's release.
Overall, the contract has traded sideways in a narrow range between 7.1% and 12.0%. The low absolute probability suggests traders see a Republican win as a long shot. The recent upward tick reflects a marginal increase in that probability based on polling data confirming a GOP lead, however small, rather than a significant shift in the market's outlook on the race.
  • Since last update (~42d): Angie Nixon's market probability rose +3.7pp (market-led); model probability increased +1.9pp, widening the edge.
  • Ashley Moody's probabilities both saw slight decreases (-1.8pp market, -1.9pp model).
  • The overall edge (model
  • market) widened by +0.6pp to 0.7pp.
  • Confidence score decreased by -1.0pp, now at 8.0.
  • Ashley Moody appears likely to win, backed by consistent late-October polling and forecaster consensus.
  • Florida's 1.5M+ Republican voter advantage reinforces Moody's strong market position.
  • Angie Nixon's strong Q3 fundraising and tightening polls suggest limited upset potential.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Angie Nixon 12.0% 10.3% Angie Nixon trails due to consistent Republican leads across polls, forecasters, and prediction markets despite recent tightening.
Ashley Moody 89.0% 89.7% Ashley Moody consistently leads in polls, forecaster ratings, and other prediction markets, pointing to a Republican victory.

Current Context

Republican Ashley Moody leads a tightening Florida Senate race, with the special election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. Moody faces Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon for the remainder of Marco Rubio's term, which ends in January 2029 [1][2][3]. Florida's other Senate seat is not on the 2026 ballot [3]. Latest polling data indicates Moody holds a lead [1][4]. The University of North Florida's October 12–19 poll of likely voters recorded Moody at 49% to Nixon's 45%, with 5% undecided [1]. Call the Map's October 21 average, based on 21 included polls, showed Moody at Republican +6.7 points [4]. A co/efficient poll fielded October 18–20 had Moody at 48% and Nixon at 40% [5]. The election follows primaries and early voting in August, where Moody won the Republican primary on August 18 [6][3].
Moody holds advantages despite Nixon's strong fundraising efforts. Nixon won the Democratic primary on August 18 despite being heavily outspent by Alexander Vindman [2][6]. She later outraised Moody in Q3, with $7.6 million to Moody's $5.8 million, though Moody retains a larger overall campaign fund [2][3]. Republicans maintain a statewide voter registration advantage exceeding 1.5 million [3]. Expert and forecaster consensus favors Moody [1][2][7]. Inside Elections rates the race Likely Republican, and Cook Political Report rates it Solid Republican [1][2]. Call the Map's October 21 forecast assigns Moody a 93.2% win probability, projecting an 8.6-point Republican margin [7]. Model disagreement centers on the size of the Republican advantage, not the likely winner [5][8]. 535 gives Moody an 87% chance with a projected average margin of R+5.8 [5]. An On Point Politics release, reported by The Floridian, forecasts an 88% win chance for Moody with a projected 52.5%–45.7% vote split [8]. Prediction markets as of October 21–22 strongly favor Moody, with State of the Odds reporting Kalshi at 89% and Polymarket at 90% [9]. Kalshi's platform lists Moody at 88% for the win and Nixon at 12%, with approximately $1.66 million in volume [10].
Moody is the strong favorite, with some late upset risk remaining. Ashley Moody is the clear favorite to win and retain the Florida Senate seat, but her victory is not a mathematical lock [1][5][2]. Nixon's path to an upset depends on converting her recent fundraising success and Democratic momentum into high voter turnout by November 3 [1][5][2]. The narrowing margin in the UNF poll suggests some potential for a late-campaign upset [1][5]. Polls will be open on election day from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Eastern [3].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Republicans Donalds, Moody hold slim leads in tightening governor, US Senate races, UNF polls finds | WLRNwlrn.org
  2. 2Moody vs. Nixon | Guide to Florida's U.S. Senate special election | firstcoastnews.comfirstcoastnews.com
  3. 3United States Senate special election in Florida, 2026...ballotpedia.org
  4. 4Florida Senate polls 2026: Moody vs. Nixon · Call the Mapcallthemap.com
  5. 5A co/efficient poll finds Moody up 8 in Florida, and our forecast holds near 13% · 535535.wtf
  6. 6Florida’s Other Senate Race: How the 2026 Special Election to Replace Marco Rubio Works – Election Deskelectiondesk.org
  7. 7Florida Senate 2026: Moody 94 in 100 · R+9.5 forecast | Moody vs. Nixon polls & odds — Call the Mapcallthemap.com
  8. 8New Poll Shows Ashley Moody Significantly Leading Angie Nixon · The Floridianfloridianpress.com
  9. 9Florida Senate Race Odds 2026: Kalshi vs Polymarketstateoftheodds.com
  10. 10Senate Elections Prediction Markets & Odds | Kalshikalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market asks who will win the Florida Senate special election on November 3, 2026, contested by Ashley Moody (R) and Angie Nixon (D). A 'Yes' contract for a specific candidate resolves to Yes if their party is officially declared the winner of this election. Conversely, a 'No' contract for a candidate resolves to Yes if their party does not win. The market resolves based on the winning party of the special Senate election.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Ashley Moody $0.89 $0.12 89%
Angie Nixon $0.12 $0.89 12%

Market Discussion

The market strongly favors Ashley Moody (R) to win the 2026 Florida Senate special election with an 88% probability, forecasting an R +8.5 margin of victory. Key arguments for Moody include her substantial fundraising advantage ($13.3M vs. Angie Nixon's $974.8K) and Florida's recent strong Republican lean in presidential elections. While polls show Moody with a 6.4% lead (49.3% to Nixon's 42.9%), the market's high conviction for her victory indicates traders are factoring in additional data points beyond just polling.

4. Trust Index

This scorecard was computed Oct 24, 2026 and may not reflect current market conditions.

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 85 Strong
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score83Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses under 1% of the price to slippage.

Trust score85Strong

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
87Deep

Size fills near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Angie Nixon83
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.0% of price over 21 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,049 · 24h
Book spread 10% vs realized 2%
Ashley Moody88
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 0.5% of price over 15 traded bars

24h traded notional $8,975 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Ashley Moody—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Angie Nixon—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Ashley Moody100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Angie Nixon100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
83Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 87 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.2c slippage (<1% of a 90.3c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.2c slippage (<1% of a 90.3c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.3c slippage (<1% of a 90.3c contract)

Ashley Moody88Market scoreLiquidity88Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 88
Liquidity
88 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 0.5% of price over 15 traded bars

24h traded notional $8,975 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Angie Nixon83Market scoreLiquidity83Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 83
Liquidity
83 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.0% of price over 21 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,049 · 24h
Book spread 10% vs realized 2%
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 24, 2026

5. How do Ashley Moody's and Angie Nixon's platforms compare on key Florida issues like property insurance and the economy?

Angie Nixon Insurance PolicyAdvocates federal intervention, a public insurance option, and anti-price-gouging measures [1][2][3]
Ashley Moody Economic PolicyEmphasizes tax reductions, deregulation, and fiscal restraint [4][3]
Election Outlook (Oct 22, 2026)Prediction markets strongly favored Moody, while polling showed a closer race (Oct 12-19) [5][6][7][8]
Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon offer contrasting approaches to Florida's key issues. Moody advocates for a less interventionist government, emphasizing tax reductions, deregulation, and fostering economic growth. Her strategy for property insurance and housing costs aligns with this philosophy, prioritizing reduced government involvement, lower taxes, and initiatives to make homeownership more accessible [3][9][4]. In contrast, Nixon champions federal intervention and wealth redistribution. On property insurance, Nixon calls for a public insurance option, federal reinsurance backstops, and stronger consumer protections. She also supports disaster-resilience funding, repurposing insurer profits for disaster reserves, and implementing anti-price-gouging rules, while opposing further deregulation due to its past failures [1][2][3].
Their economic platforms reflect fundamentally different government roles. Moody's economic agenda centers on broad tax reductions, specifically mentioning deductions for tips, overtime, seniors, and potentially insurance-related expenses. She also proposes reducing business regulations, curbing federal waste, and exercising fiscal restraint, presenting her vision as one that promotes overall economic prosperity without introducing large-scale new federal programs [3][9][4]. Nixon's economic platform, known as the Working Families Guarantee, is broadly interventionist. It includes proposals for universal jobs, paid leave, childcare, Medicare for All, rent stabilization, and drug-cost caps. She advocates for increased corporate accountability, arguing that billionaires and corporations should contribute more to public investment [1][3][10]. Regarding the election, polling from October 12–19, 2026, indicated a closer contest, though prediction market snapshots as of October 22, 2026, strongly favored Moody [5][6][7][8].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Priorities - Angie Nixon for U.S. Senateangienixon.com
  2. 2One-on-One: Senate candidate Angie Nixon outlines...fox13news.com
  3. 3Three candidates, Three Visions: Florida's US Senate...folioweekly.com
  4. 4Ashley Moody: 2026 Florida U.S. Senate Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 5Florida Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Moody vs. Nixon | Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 62026 Florida Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  7. 7UNF poll gives Ashley Moody 4-point lead over Angie...floridapolitics.com
  8. 8Moody Leads Nixon in Florida Senate Raceactivote.net
  9. 9Florida Senate race pits Angie Nixon's grassroots organizing...prismreports.org
  10. 10Angie Nixon has been working years for this moment19thnews.org

6. What consensus have election forecasters like Cook Political Report and 535 reached on Ashley Moody's chances in the 2026 special election?

Ashley Moody Win Probability80% to 91% [1][2][3]
Florida Race Rating (Cook Political Report)Solid R (last updated February 11, 2025) [4]
Election Date and CandidatesNovember 3, 2026, Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon [5][6]
Election forecasters widely agree Ashley Moody is the favorite for 2026. Consensus among election forecasters overwhelmingly favors Ashley Moody in the 2026 special election, positioning her as the clear frontrunner [4][1]. The Cook Political Report, which last updated its designation on February 11, 2025, lists Florida as "Solid R" [4]. Further reinforcing this assessment, late-October 2026 ratings aggregations from Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball reported the state as "Safely Republican" [1]. This special election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will see appointed Republican incumbent Ashley Moody face Democrat Angie Nixon, competing for the final two years of Marco Rubio’s term [5][6].
Quantitative models and prediction markets strongly favor Moody's victory. Polling-based and model-style estimates indicate Moody's win probability ranges from 80% to 91% [1][2][3]. For instance, DDHQ showed an 80% probability in an early-September snapshot, with Kalshi indicating 88%–91% [1][3]. Prediction markets generally align with these forecasts, as Kalshi displayed Moody at approximately 88%–91% and Polymarket at 91%, collectively suggesting about a nine-in-ten chance of a Moody victory [3][7][8]. Forecasters anticipate Moody will win by a modest single-digit margin; late-October summaries project her approximately 5.8–6.8 points ahead, and Kalshi forecasts a Republican lead of about 7.5 to 8.6 points [1][3][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 12026 Florida Senate Special Election: Polls, Ratings & Oddsshowdownwire.com
  2. 2Florida Senate (special) — 2026 U.S. Senate | Runchey Researchruncheyresearch.com
  3. 3Florida Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Moody vs. Nixon | Kalshikalshi.com
  4. 4FL Senate 2026cookpolitical.com
  5. 5Cook Political Report 2026 Senate Race Ratings270towin.com
  6. 6Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  7. 7Florida Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Moody vs. Nixon | Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 8Florida Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com

7. What do the latest October 2026 polling averages from aggregators like Call the Map indicate about the state of the Moody vs. Nixon race?

Average Polling Lead6-7 percentage points (Moody over Nixon) [1][2][3]
Moody's Kalshi Win Probability88%-91% [4][5][6]
Latest UNF Poll LeadMoody 49% to Nixon 45% (4-point lead) [3][7]
Polling aggregators consistently show Ashley Moody leading Angie Nixon in Florida. As of October 21–22, 2026, polling aggregators consistently place Republican Ashley Moody ahead of Democrat Angie Nixon in the Florida Senate race by approximately 6–7 percentage points [1][2][3]. The available October polling averages do not indicate a statistical tie, with Moody leading in every late-October summary [8][1][9]. For instance, 270toWin’s five-poll average shows Moody with 50.4% support to Nixon’s 43.4%, a 7.0-point Republican advantage [1]. FiftyPlusOne reports Moody ahead by 5.8 points (49.1% to 43.3%) [2], and Decision Desk HQ’s October average indicates a 7.1-point Republican advantage, with Moody at approximately 50.4% and Nixon at 43.3% [3].
A recent individual poll indicated a narrower margin for Moody. While the latest University of North Florida (UNF) poll, conducted from October 12–19 and released on October 21, presented a narrower lead for Moody at 49% to Nixon’s 45%, this suggests some Democratic improvement [3][7]. However, this individual poll did not indicate a reversal of the overall trend, as Moody maintained a four-point lead [3][7].
Prediction markets strongly favor Moody, indicating a significant lead. Prediction markets also heavily favor Ashley Moody, with Kalshi’s pricing on October 21–22 placing Moody’s chance of winning near 88%–91% and Nixon’s near 9%–12% [4][5][6]. This implies an approximate R+8 margin, which is a substantially more confident projection than the polling averages alone suggest [4][5][6]. The best synthesis of available information indicates Moody remains the clear favorite, likely to win absent a significant turnout surprise [9][10]. While Nixon is not completely eliminated, particularly given the latest individual poll narrowed Moody’s lead to four points, the overall polling average is materially less decisive than the approximately 90% market-implied win probability [9][7][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 Polls: Florida Senate270towin.com
  2. 2Florida General Senate Election Polls and Average...fiftyplusone.news
  3. 32026 Florida Senate Polling Averagevotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Florida Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Moody vs. Nixon | Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Florida Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Moody vs. Nixon | Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6Florida Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Moody vs. Nixon | Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7New poll shows Florida governor race 'too close to call'tallahassee.com
  8. 8Florida U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  9. 9New poll shows Florida governor race 'too close to call'marconews.com
  10. 10Moody Leads Nixon in Florida Senate Raceactivote.net

8. What late-breaking events, such as debates or scandals, could shift momentum for either Moody or Nixon before the November 3 election?

Hope Florida Alleged Donation$10 million [1][2][3][4]
Centene Settlement Value$67 million [1][2][3][4]
Republican Registration AdvantageOver 1.5 million [3][5]
Key late-breaking events could significantly shift election momentum. Potential new disclosures related to the Hope Florida scandal or a weak debate performance by Moody could bolster Nixon's campaign [6][4]. Conversely, new damaging information regarding Nixon's FEC matter or a viral ideological controversy could benefit Moody [6][4]. Moody's primary vulnerability remains the Hope Florida scandal, which involves allegations that $10 million from a $67 million Centene settlement was improperly donated to Hope Florida [1][2][3][4]. Nixon and other Democrats are actively leveraging this issue, pressing Moody for accountability [1][2][3][4]. Furthermore, Moody's consistent refusal to participate in debates has allowed Nixon to accuse her of avoiding public scrutiny [7][2][3][4].
Nixon also faces late-breaking risks from campaign finance issues. Nixon has acknowledged campaign-finance filing mistakes after the FEC requested information concerning potential contribution irregularities [5]. While an FEC request does not constitute a finding of wrongdoing, an expansion of this issue could jeopardize Nixon's anti-corruption message [5]. Additional risks for Nixon include escalated rhetoric, such as her defense of comments about Moody, and renewed scrutiny over her ties to the Democratic Socialists of America, her bookstore, and alleged controversial quotations [1][3][4]. These types of events are generally more likely to consolidate each candidate's existing base rather than significantly alter the overall race, unless a viral incident or compelling new evidence emerges [1][3][4]. Nixon's path to victory relies heavily on voter mobilization, with her campaign attracting large progressive crowds at rallies, aiming to overcome Florida's more than 1.5 million Republican registration advantage by increasing turnout among young, Black, labor, progressive, and irregular voters [3][5].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Nixon defends call to put opponent Moody in jailthehill.com
  2. 2Democrats slam Ashley Moody amid a heated U.S. Senate...wusf.org
  3. 3In Ybor City, Angie Nixon and Bernie Sanders rally against...cltampa.com
  4. 4Moody vs. Nixon | Guide to Florida's U.S. Senate special...firstcoastnews.com
  5. 5Sanders rallies with Nixon in Tallahassee as she...fox49.tv
  6. 6Florida Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Moody vs. Nixon | Kalshikalshi.com
  7. 7Ashley Moody says she's not avoiding the press, then...wmnf.org

9. What evidence from Q3 fundraising and recent polls supports Angie Nixon's potential for an upset victory despite forecaster consensus?

Nixon Q3 Fundraisingabout $7.6 million (July-September) [1][2]
Moody Q3 Cash on Handabout $7.2 million (end of Q3) [1][2]
St. Pete Polls (October)Moody 47%, Nixon 45% [3][2]
Angie Nixon's Q3 fundraising success signals significant campaign momentum. Her campaign raised approximately $7.6 million from July through September, surpassing Ashley Moody's $5.8 million during the same period [1][2]. This surge followed Nixon's initial fundraising of under $1 million before her August 18 Democratic primary upset, indicating rapid donor mobilization and a campaign capable of competing financially [1][2]. Despite this strong showing, Moody maintained a substantial cash-on-hand advantage at the end of Q3, with about $7.2 million compared to Nixon's roughly $4.5 million, and had raised more cumulatively [1][2]. Nixon's narrative for an upset is bolstered by repeatedly exceeding expectations, such as winning the primary despite a significant fundraising disparity and subsequently achieving this impressive Q3 fundraising surge [1][2][4].
Recent polling indicates a closer race, challenging forecaster consensus. One St. Pete Polls result reported Moody at 47% and Nixon at 45%, placing the outcome effectively within a typical margin of error [3][2]. Florida Politics also noted Nixon as performing closer than expected in some polls [2]. However, the polling landscape is mixed; an On Point Politics poll released on October 20 showed Moody leading 52.5% to 45.7% (+6.7) [5]. Other compilations indicated earlier Moody leads, such as 50%-42% [6]. Therefore, the argument for an upset relies on a trend of narrowing leads and volatility in polling, rather than a consistent Nixon advantage [5][6].
Despite Nixon's momentum, forecaster sentiment remains strongly against an upset. Kalshi priced Moody around 88%-89% and Nixon around 12% on October 21-22 [7][8][4]. Major political handicappers like Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have categorized the race as Safe R, with Inside Elections listing it as Likely R [7][8][4]. Although some quantitative estimates, such as DDHQ at 23% and 50+1 at 24% for Nixon, suggest more optimism than the broader market, the Republican registration advantage of over 1.5 million voters in Florida presents a formidable structural challenge [4][1][2].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Senate money race heats uppolitico.com
  2. 2Angie Nixon outraises Ashley Moody by millions in third...floridapolitics.com
  3. 3St. Pete Polls | Florida: Moody 47% Nixon 45%reddit.com
  4. 4Florida Senate (special) — 2026 U.S. Senate | Runchey Researchruncheyresearch.com
  5. 5New Poll Shows Ashley Moody Significantly Leading Angie...floridianpress.com
  6. 62026 Florida Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  7. 7Florida Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Moody vs. Nixon | Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 8Florida Senate 2026: Is Likely R Priced Right? Kalshi Oddspredictionmarketspicks.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Ashley Moody (R) holds a strong market position for the Florida U.S. Senate seat, with Polymarket implying about 91% and Kalshi approximately 88–91% win probability as of October 21–22, 2026 [1][2][3]. The race is favored Republican with a forecast margin of Moody R+8.6, and the latest polling average stands at R+6.7 [4][5]. Bullish catalysts for Moody/R include a sustained polling lead, the Republican statewide baseline, favorable late undecided-voter movement, strong turnout, or Democratic campaign/fundraising problems [6][5]. The current 88–91% pricing already embeds much of this favorable case, suggesting further upside likely requires confirmation beyond merely another GOP-leaning poll [6].
Conversely, bearish catalysts for Moody/R could include polling convergence toward a tie, a repeat of the closest recent surveys (e.g., Moody +1.9 or 49% to Nixon 45%) [4][5][7], a late Democratic turnout surge, strong Nixon fundraising/organization, damaging Moody news or debate performance, or a broader national anti-Republican wave [6][5]. A shift from the approximately R+7 margin toward low single digits would be particularly market-relevant [6]. Mandatory early voting runs from October 24–31, preceding Election Day on Tuesday, November 3, and these periods could reveal such shifts [8][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1Florida Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  2. 22026 Florida Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  3. 3Florida Senate Odds — Live Prediction Market Pricespredictionscout.com
  4. 4Florida Senate (special): 2026 forecast | Polling Forecastpollingforecast.com
  5. 5Florida Senate polls 2026: Moody vs. Nixon · Call the Mapcallthemap.com
  6. 6Florida Senate Race 2026: Kalshi Prices & Volumeticker-tracker.com
  7. 7Florida Senate: every poll · FutureBallotfutureballot.com
  8. 8Election Dates - Division of Elections - Florida Department of Statedos.fl.gov
  9. 9Key dates and things to know for the 2026 Florida electionswusf.org