Florida Senate 2026
Short Answer
Ashley Moody is expected to win the Florida Senate race in 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 90.8%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market was established to price the outcome of the Florida special election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The election will fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio following his appointment as Secretary of State.
The contract has traded sideways within a narrow 2.1 percentage point band, from a low of 7.1% to a high of 9.2%. No specific event or news driver in the provided information coincides with these minor price movements. The stability of the price suggests a static, low-probability assessment of the "YES" outcome. A move to 9.1% on September 2 occurred on zero reported volume, indicating it was not the result of active trading pressure.
- Since last update (~115d): The edge between model and market predictions compressed significantly by 3.3pp to 0.1pp.
- Ashley Moody's model probability rose 5.2pp, with the market leading at a 7.8pp increase.
- Angie Nixon's model probability fell 5.2pp, as the market led with a 9.7pp decline.
- Overall confidence in the outcome increased by 1.0pp, now scoring 9.0.
- Republicans are favored; Ashley Moody has a "Safe Republican" rating from major prognosticators.
- Moody also maintains a substantial fundraising advantage over Angie Nixon.
- Nixon's August primary win built a core base despite facing a massive funding deficit.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angie Nixon | 8.3% | 8.4% | Angie Nixon faces an overwhelming fundraising deficit and the race is widely rated "Safe Republican". |
| Ashley Moody | 90.8% | 91.6% | Ashley Moody holds a "Safe Republican" rating, a significant fundraising advantage, and leads consistently in polls. |
Current Context
The 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^][^][^]. This election will fill the final two years of the term vacated by Marco Rubio, who was appointed Secretary of State [^][^][^]. The primary election on August 18, 2026, determined the major party candidates [^]. Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis, won her party's primary with 79.6% of the vote [^][^]. On the Democratic side, state Representative Angie Nixon secured an upset victory in the primary, defeating former national security official Alex Vindman with 56.1% of the vote [^][^][^]. Neil Gillespie is also a primary candidate, running with No Party Affiliation [^][^].
Forecasts overwhelmingly favor Republican Ashley Moody to win the special election. Major political prognosticators currently rate the Florida Senate race as "Safe Republican" [^][^][^][^]. As of early September 2026, election forecasters, including Decision Desk HQ, classify the race as Solid or Likely Republican [^][^][^]. Prediction markets and election models further support a Republican victory, assigning an approximate 84% to 96% probability to the Republican candidate winning the general election [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a "Yes" contract on a specific candidate, it resolves positively if that candidate's party officially wins the Florida Senate election. Conversely, a "No" contract resolves positively if that candidate's party does not officially win the election.
The market begins on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, and has a maximum payout date of November 3, 2027. Resolution is determined by the officially declared winning party of the Florida Senate election.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | $0.91 | $0.09 | 91% |
| Angie Nixon | $0.09 | $0.92 | 8% |
Market Discussion
The 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democrat Angie Nixon and independent candidate Neil Gillespie [^][^][^]. Prediction markets consistently show Moody with an implied probability of winning around 90-92% as of late August 2026, a sentiment echoed by major forecasters who rate the race as "Likely Republican" [^][^][^][^][^]. This strong favorability is largely attributed to Florida's consistent Republican trend, Moody's incumbency, and a perceived lack of competitive Democratic appeal [^].
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Angie NixonPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- -0.04
Ashley MoodyTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 9, 2026
5. What polling data and forecast models from entities like Decision Desk HQ support Ashley Moody's 'Safe Republican' status in the 2026 special election?
| Republican Win Probability | 80% (September 1, 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Projected Margin | R+7 (September 1, 2026) [^][^] |
| UNF Poll (July 2026) | Ashley Moody 50%, Angie Nixon 42% [^][^][^] |
Forecasting models indicate Ashley Moody has a strong lead, but not a 'Safe Republican' status. As of early September 2026, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) projects the 2026 Florida Senate special election as 'Likely R', assigning the Republican candidate an 80% win probability [^][^]. Specifically, incumbent Republican Ashley Moody is forecast with an 80% probability of winning this U.S. Senate special election, with a projected margin of R+7 as of September 1, 2026 [^][^]. While Sabato's Crystal Ball upgraded the race to 'Safe Republican' following the Democratic primary, DDHQ's current forecast does not assign a 'Safe Republican' status to Moody [^].
The forecast model incorporates fundamentals, polling data, and prediction market insights. The DDHQ forecast model for this race blends several factors, comprising 66% fundamentals, 9% polls, and 25% markets [^][^]. Key components of the fundamentals include the partisan baseline, incumbency, effects of the presidential party cycle, and advantages in campaign finance [^][^]. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Kalshi, are also integrated into DDHQ's framework to help assess the probability of the race outcome [^].
6. How do the post-primary fundraising reports for Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon compare in terms of cash on hand and small-dollar donors?
| Ashley Moody Cash on Hand | $8,482,820.69 (as of July 29, 2026) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Angie Nixon Cash on Hand | $265,000 (as of July 29, 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Ashley Moody Unitemized Contributions | $1,529,141.71 [^][^][^] |
Ashley Moody significantly outpaced Angie Nixon in post-primary fundraising by late July 2026. Republican Senator Ashley Moody reported approximately $8.48 million in cash on hand, stemming from total receipts of about $11.26 million. In contrast, Democratic candidate Angie Nixon held $265,000 in cash on hand after raising roughly $975,000 by the same period [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Unitemized individual contributions also revealed a notable difference between the candidates. These contributions, often indicative of small-dollar donor support, showed Ashley Moody receiving $1,529,141.71, which was substantially more than Angie Nixon's $108,621.85 [^][^][^]. This disparity suggests a broader base of smaller donations for Moody, although her overall fundraising strategy has also heavily involved corporate entities and elite donors [^].
7. What potential campaign missteps or national political events before November 2026 could jeopardize Ashley Moody's significant lead?
| Election Forecaster Rating | Solid Republican or Likely Republican (August and September 2026) [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Potential Vulnerabilities | Low public name recognition and untested profile in high-stakes statewide campaigns [^][^] |
| Current Threat Assessment | No specific national political events or campaign missteps identified as uniquely jeopardizing lead [^] |
Ashley Moody holds a significant lead in the Florida Senate race. She is widely favored to win the special election for the U.S. Senate in Florida on November 3, 2026. Major election forecasters rated the general election as Solid Republican or Likely Republican in August and September 2026, signaling a robust position for her candidacy [^][^][^][^][^].
Despite her lead, Moody's campaign faces specific vulnerabilities. Some analyses and opponents highlight potential risks, including Moody's relatively low public name recognition and an untested profile in high-stakes statewide campaigns. Her candidacy also faces vulnerability if there is a substantial shift in the political environment, notwithstanding Florida's recent trend of statewide Republican success [^][^].
No specific events or missteps currently threaten Moody's lead. As of the available information, no specific national political events or campaign missteps have been identified as uniquely jeopardizing her lead. This assessment is further supported by Florida's recent electoral history of consistent statewide Republican success [^].
8. What does a geographic analysis of the August 2026 Democratic primary results indicate about Angie Nixon's core base of support?
| Overall vote share for Angie Nixon | Approximately 55.9% to 60% [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Nixon's vote share in strongest performing areas | 69.7% [^] |
| Nixon's lead in Jefferson County | Nixon+44.7% [^][^] |
Angie Nixon secured a significant victory in the August 2026 Democratic primary. She defeated Alex Vindman with approximately 55.9% to 60% of the vote, building her success on a broad base of support [^][^][^][^][^]. This extensive support encompassed key Democratic strongholds, diverse and rural regions, and larger counties across Florida [^][^][^][^][^].
Nixon demonstrated strong performances across various key Florida regions. She achieved particularly high percentages in established Democratic areas, securing 61.0% in Alachua County and reaching up to 69.7% in her strongest performing areas [^]. Her appeal also extended to rural and diverse counties, where she showed considerable strength, leading by 44.7% in Jefferson, 44.4% in Jackson, and 40.8% in Madison [^][^]. Additionally, Nixon performed well in larger counties, such as Escambia, where she held a 24.5% lead [^][^]. This wide-ranging support aligns with her public image as a democratic socialist and union organizer advocating for working families [^][^][^][^].
9. How do Ashley Moody's and Angie Nixon's platforms compare on key economic issues for Florida voters, such as inflation and job growth?
| Moody's Economic Priority | Fiscal discipline, deregulation, reduced government spending to combat inflation [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Nixon's Economic Priority | Corporate tax accountability, middle-class protections, investments in job training and small businesses [^][^][^] |
| Nixon's Program | 'Working Families Guarantee' (capping drug costs, addressing price-gouging) [^][^] |
Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon propose distinct economic strategies for Florida voters. Moody's platform prioritizes fiscal discipline, deregulation, and reduced government spending as primary methods to combat inflation and foster economic prosperity. She also expresses opposition to federal bureaucratic overreach and critiques her opponent's agenda as detrimental to the economy [^][^]. In contrast, Angie Nixon, identifying as a democratic socialist, focuses on corporate tax accountability, robust protections for the middle class, and direct investments in job training programs and small businesses [^][^][^].
Nixon's platform, the 'Working Families Guarantee,' targets economic inequality. This initiative outlines specific measures designed to address affordability and support working-class families, including capping drug costs and combating price-gouging [^][^][^][^]. She also advocates for challenging the political influence of corporations and billionaires, arguing that current economic policies do not adequately support working-class communities [^][^][^][^]. Nixon directly champions job growth through her proposed investments aimed at small businesses and job training programs [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election features incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody, appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis in January 2025, and Democratic nominee Angie Nixon [^][^][^][^][^]. This election fills the remainder of the term previously held by Marco Rubio, who resigned in January 2025 to become U.S. Secretary of State [^][^][^][^][^]. Forecasting models and prediction markets, such as Decision Desk HQ and Polymarket, indicate Moody holds an approximate 80-96% probability of winning the seat [^][^][^][^]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [^][^][^].
Market probabilities in Senate races are typically influenced by several factors [^] [^] [^] [^] . These key catalysts include candidate recruitment or withdrawals, unexpected polling shifts in battleground states, the release of FEC fundraising reports, and debates [^][^][^][^]. Such events commonly drive adjustments in perceived electoral outcomes.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 Florida U.S.
- Trigger: Senate special election features incumbent Republican Senator Ashley Moody, appointed by Governor Ron DeSantis in January 2025, and Democratic nominee Angie Nixon [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This election fills the remainder of the term previously held by Marco Rubio, who resigned in January 2025 to become U.S.
- Trigger: Secretary of State [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
