Short Answer

James Talarico is expected to win the 2026 Texas Senate race, with polling indicating a modest lead for the Democrat and the market pricing this outcome at 68.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The Republican contract's mid-month rally to 38% coincides with the release of a Fox News poll (October 15-19) showing a 49-49% tie in the Texas Senate race. This poll presented a more favorable outlook for the Republican candidate, Ken Paxton, compared to a University of Houston survey from earlier in the month (October 10-14) that showed him trailing his Democratic opponent 46% to 48%. The move to 38% suggests traders priced in the improved polling.
The contract's subsequent decline to 33% by October 22 indicates the market ultimately faded the rally inspired by the single tied poll. Instead, pricing appears to have reverted to the broader consensus seen on other prediction market venues, which consistently priced the Republican's chances in the low 30s. This level reflects a significant divergence from polling data. The increase in daily volume during this period suggests the conflicting data from polls and the established market baseline drove trading activity.
  • Since last update (~43d): James Talarico's market probability soared +19.0pp (market_led), flipping his specific outcome's edge.
  • Ken Paxton's market probability dropped -18.0pp (market_led), compressing his outcome's edge.
  • Overall headline model probability increased +18.5pp, improving alignment with market activity.
  • Confidence decreased by -1.0pp over ~1022.4 hours, despite stronger market consensus.
  • James Talarico holds favor, driven by consistent, albeit modest, polling leads.
  • Talarico significantly outraised Paxton in direct funds; Paxton benefits from outside spending.
  • Ken Paxton's position is bolstered by Texas's Republican lean.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Ken Paxton 33.0% 32.7% Paxton benefits from Texas's Republican lean and overwhelming outside financial support.
James Talarico 68.0% 67.3% Talarico consistently leads in polling and benefits from strong direct campaign fundraising.

Current Context

Prediction markets favor Democrat James Talarico for the Texas Senate race, though polling data indicates a closer contest. As of October 22, 2026, Kalshi lists Talarico at 68% and Republican Ken Paxton at 32%, with Polymarket showing similar figures of approximately 68% and 33% respectively [1][2]. A cross-market tracker estimates Talarico at 67.4% against Paxton's 32.6% [3]. Polling, however, reflects tighter margins: the latest Fox News poll (October 15-19) showed a 49%-49% tie, while a University of Houston Hobby School survey (October 10-14, n=2,000, ±2.19%) placed Talarico ahead 48%-46% [4][5]. An aggregation of recent polls reports Talarico with a 2.5-point lead, 49.1% to Paxton's 46.7% [6]. Talarico secured the Democratic nomination over Jasmine Crockett, while Paxton defeated incumbent John Cornyn in the Republican runoff [7][8].
Talarico's market lead recovered after a mid-October dip, following a period of sustained momentum since September 10. His Kalshi price declined from 66% on October 5 to 62% by October 16, attributed to campaign developments including significant outside support for Paxton and a CNN town hall [9][10]. By October 22, market listings for Talarico had rebounded to roughly 67%-68% [1][9]. This contest is drawing considerable prediction-market volume: CBS reported over $30 million traded on Kalshi by October 19 [9]. A cross-venue tracker noted approximately $40.3 million traded across Kalshi and Polymarket, with Kalshi's Texas Senate volume for October 1-20 totaling about $17.63 million [9][11][3].
Analysts express caution despite high prediction market activity, viewing prices as probabilities rather than certainties. Nicole Kagan, Kalshi's research chief, emphasized that prices represent probabilities and can fluctuate [9]. Jay Stewart, an Austin attorney, has raised concerns regarding unresolved Texas gambling and consumer-protection issues pertaining to election contracts [12]. Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report characterized the race as a toss-up that may slightly favor Republicans, yet acknowledges it as an increasingly competitive opportunity for Democrats [13]. Key upcoming dates include October 19-30 for in-person early voting, October 23 as the deadline for mailed-ballot applications, and November 3, 2026, for Election Day, with polls open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. [9][13]. While Talarico holds a lead, Paxton's implied one-in-three chance and tight polling margins indicate a highly competitive race rather than a definitive forecast [1][6].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Texas Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Talarico vs. Paxton | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
  3. 3Texas Senate Election Winner Odds, Platforms, and Market Data | The Prediction Marketsthepredictionmarkets.com
  4. 4Texas 2026 U.S. Senate Poll Tracker | The Texas Politics Projecttexaspolitics.utexas.edu
  5. 5Hobby School Survey: Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Paxton in Race for U.S. Senate | University of Houstonuh.edu
  6. 62026 Texas Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  7. 7Texas U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
  8. 8Texas election preview, 2026ballotpedia.org
  9. 9Prediction markets show Talarico leading Paxton in Texas Senate racecbsaustin.com
  10. 10Texas Senate odds: Talarico drops to 62% following CNN town hallnews.kalshi.com
  11. 11Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Jumps to $104M Ahead of Midtermsdefirate.com
  12. 12Betting markets shift toward Paxton as Texas chatbots barely movevotingmonitor.org
  13. 132026 Texas Elections: Senate, Governor, House Races & Pollstexpolls.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market resolves based on the winning party of the Texas Senate general election. A "Yes" resolution for a specific candidate occurs if their associated party is declared the winner, while a "No" resolution occurs if their party does not win. The key date for this election is November 3, 2026, and the market explicitly states it "Resolves by winning party."

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
James Talarico $0.68 $0.33 68%
Ken Paxton $0.33 $0.68 33%

Market Discussion

As of October 22, 2026, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi indicated an approximate 68% probability for Democrat James Talarico to win the Texas U.S. Senate race against Republican Ken Paxton, a market view that USA TODAY reported as less competitive than conventional polling showing Talarico with smaller leads [1][2][3][4]. Trading interest was substantial, with millions in volume reported across platforms, though these market prices represent probabilities and not an election outcome, as the contracts remain open to resolve on the eventual 2026 election winner [1][2][3][4][5].

Sources (5)
  1. 1What Kalshi, Polymarket say about Texas Senate, governor's raceusatoday.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
  3. 3Texas Senate Race Odds 2026: Kalshi vs Polymarketstateoftheodds.com
  4. 4Election Trading on Kalshi and Polymarket Jumps to $104M Ahead of Midtermsdefirate.com
  5. 52026 Senate Races: All 35 Seats, Market by Marketpredictionmarketspicks.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 83 Good

Largest single print on SENATETX-26-D carried 34% of its $20,913 tape (window is 6% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score81Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 1% of the price to slippage.

Trust score83Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on SENATETX-26-D carried 34% of its $20,913 tape (window is 6% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
88Deep

Size fills near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Ken Paxton87
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.8% of price over 24 traded bars

24h traded notional $719,840 · 24h
James Talarico89
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.5% of price over 24 traded bars

24h traded notional $326,467 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

James Talarico—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Ken Paxton—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

James Talarico100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Ken Paxton100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
81Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 88 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 35.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 35.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~1% of a 35.5c contract)

James Talarico89Market scoreLiquidity89Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 89
Liquidity
89 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.5% of price over 24 traded bars

24h traded notional $326,467 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Ken Paxton87Market scoreLiquidity87Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 87
Liquidity
87 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 2.8% of price over 24 traded bars

24h traded notional $719,840 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 24, 2026

5. How do Ken Paxton and James Talarico compare on key policy issues for Texas voters?

Talarico Prediction Market (Kalshi)68% (as of Oct 22, 2026) [1]
Paxton Prediction Market (Kalshi)32% (as of Oct 22, 2026) [1]
Talarico Campaign Fundraising$68.6 million [2][1][3]
Ken Paxton and James Talarico offer voters starkly different policy approaches for Texas. Paxton aligns with a strongly conservative, Trump-aligned agenda, prioritizing aggressive border enforcement, opposition to abortion rights, and expansive Second Amendment protections [4][5][6]. His platform also advocates for reduced regulation, increased oil-and-gas production, and opposes progressive transgender policies, while endorsing Trump's tariff strategy [4][7][5][6]. In contrast, Talarico emphasizes affordability, expanded healthcare access, and environmental protections [6]. He advocates for restoring federal abortion protections, universal gun-sale background checks, a citizenship path for long-settled immigrants, and stricter regulation of pollution and large data centers [4][5][6]. Talarico also seeks the repeal of tariffs and explicitly supports adult marijuana legalization, regulation, and taxation. While Paxton has not directly addressed marijuana legalization, he has acted against local decriminalization efforts [6].
Campaign fundraising and polling data present a complex picture of the race. As of October 2026, Talarico's campaign reportedly holds a significant fundraising advantage, accumulating about $68.6 million compared to Paxton's approximately $19.5 million [2][1][3]. Prediction markets on October 22, 2026, indicated a stronger lean towards Talarico, with Kalshi and Polymarket showing approximately 68% support for him compared to Paxton's 32-33% [1][3]. However, traditional polling from October surveys presented a much closer contest, with Talarico leading Paxton 51%-49% in CBS News/YouGov and 47%-45% in Marist, often within the margin of error [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Texas Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  2. 2Talarico for Texas - Official Campaign Website of James...jamestalarico.com
  3. 3Texas Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  4. 4In reliably red Texas, the Senate and gubernatorial races...npr.org
  5. 52026 Texas US Senate Voters Guideguides.vote
  6. 6Texas U.S. Senate 2026: Paxton, Talarico and Brown on...texastribune.org
  7. 7Texas' 2026 Senate race: What to know about Ken Paxton...livenowfox.com
  8. 8Polls, prediction markets diverge on Texas Senate...usatoday.com
  9. 9Texas Senate odds: Talarico leads Paxton 63% to 37%news.kalshi.com

6. What polling data and demographic trends support the market's current forecast favoring James Talarico?

Prediction Market ForecastJames Talarico at roughly 68–69% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
University of Houston Hobby PollTalarico 48% to Paxton's 46% among likely voters [4]
Voters Under 50 Support (Emerson)Talarico 53%–38% [7]
Prediction markets favor Talarico, aligning with recent polling data. James Talarico currently holds a 68–69% probability in prediction markets, reflecting late October polling data that indicates a narrow lead for him [1][2][3][4][5][6]. This market optimism, which is somewhat higher than traditional polling margins suggest, considers underlying demographic trends and Talarico's broad coalition among specific groups including younger, Latino, Black, female, moderate, and independent voters [3][5][8][9][10][7][11].
Consistent late October polling shows Talarico with a slight advantage. Surveys from late October place Talarico ahead, with the University of Houston Hobby survey showing him at 48% against Paxton's 46% among likely voters, and CBS News/YouGov reporting Talarico at 51% to Paxton's 49% [4][5][6]. Other polls from the same period, such as the UT/Texas Politics Project (50%–47%) and ReconMR (48%–44%), also indicate Talarico's lead [3]. The UT/Texas Politics Project poll specifically highlighted his extensive coalition, finding him ahead 42%–39% overall, with 91% Democratic support compared to 79% Republican support for Paxton, and a significant 37%–11% lead among independent voters [8].
Demographic data reinforces Talarico's strong support among key groups. Voters under 50 favor Talarico 53%–38%, and Hispanic voters prefer him by a 19-point margin [7]. Other surveys indicate Talarico leads of 71%–8% among Black voters and 66%–20% among Latino voters [9][10]. Fox News polling also reported Talarico's support at 79% among Black voters, 64% among Hispanic voters, 65% among moderates, and 62% among voters under 35 [5][9][10]. Talarico's position is further strengthened by voter perceptions of economic issues, particularly the cost of living, with those negatively impacted by higher prices tending to favor him, and his candidate evaluations generally proving more positive than Paxton's across several key attributes [5][6][8].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Texas Senate winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Live odds: Texas Senate winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  3. 3Polls, prediction markets diverge on Texas Senate...usatoday.com
  4. 4Texas Votes 2026uh.edu
  5. 5CBS News poll shows a Texas toss-up with Talarico...cbsnews.com
  6. 6Talarico holds slight edge over Paxton in U.S. Senate race...houstonpublicmedia.org
  7. 7Texas 2026 Poll: Paxton and Talarico Deadlocked in U.S....emersoncollegepolling.com
  8. 8New UT/Texas Politics Project Poll Finds Talarico Leading...texaspolitics.utexas.edu
  9. 9Another poll shows James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in...houstonpublicmedia.org
  10. 10Fox News poll shows Talarico leads Ken Paxton in Texas...foxnews.com
  11. 11Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new Texas Senate polltexastribune.org

7. What potential catalysts or campaign events between now and November 2026 could significantly shift momentum in the Paxton-Talarico race?

General Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2]
Early Voting PeriodOctober 19 - October 30, 2026 [1][2]
Talarico Prediction Market Odds63% to 67% (late October 2026) [3][4][5]
An unscheduled debate could significantly shift the race's momentum. Despite early campaign commitments from both Ken Paxton and James Talarico, no debate is currently slated before the November 3, 2026, election [6][7]. Should a debate be scheduled and held, it could substantially influence the race, which has shown considerable competitiveness and frequent fluctuations in polling [6][7][8].
Crossover endorsements and spending further influence the competitive campaign. Recent high-profile crossover endorsements for Talarico, including from a significant former Paxton donor and other prominent Republicans, have sharpened the focus on the concluding phase of the campaign [9][10]. This suggests that additional endorsements or related developments could significantly alter the race's momentum [9][10]. As of late October 2026, prediction markets assign James Talarico an approximate 63% to 67% probability of winning, highlighting the race's intensity and substantial external advertising expenditures [3][4][5]. Consequently, changes in the nature or volume of such spending could also steer the campaign's direction.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Important Election Datessos.state.tx.us
  2. 2November 3, 2026 – General and Joint Electiondallascountyvotes.org
  3. 3Texas Senate Volume Spikes 7x: Paxton vs Talarico | Prediction Huntpredictionhunt.com
  4. 42026 Texas Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 5Texas Senate Election Winner - Compare Odds on 6 Platforms | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  6. 6Trump wants Talarico and Paxton to debate....pbs.org
  7. 7Ken Paxton says he'll debate James Talarico in Texas Senate racetexastribune.org
  8. 8James Talarico leading Ken Paxton in Senate race: UH pollhoustonchronicle.com
  9. 9Major Ken Paxton Donor Endorses James Talarico in Texasnewsweek.com
  10. 10Texas US Senate race tightens as Paxton, Talarico trade...elpasotimes.com

8. What are the key filing deadlines for FEC campaign finance reports ahead of the November 2026 election?

October Quarterly Report DueOctober 15, 2026 [1][2][3]
Pre-General Report DueOctober 22, 2026 [1][2]
48-Hour Contribution Notices PeriodOctober 15–31, 2026 [1][3]
Key FEC campaign finance deadlines precede the November 2026 general election. Ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, the October Quarterly Report is due on October 15, 2026, covering financial activity through September 30 [1][2][3]. This is followed by the Pre-General Report, which must be filed by October 22, 2026, covering activity through October 14, 2026 [1][3]. Electronic filings are mandatory for the Pre-General Report by its October 22 deadline [1][2].
Additional rules apply for contributions and post-election reporting. During October 15 through October 31, 2026, 48-hour notices are required for contributions of $1,000 or more, with these notices due within 48 hours of receipt [1][3]. Following Election Day, the Post-General Report is due on December 3, 2026, covering financial activity from October 15 through November 23 [2][4]. For PACs and parties that file monthly, these Pre-General and Post-General reports serve as replacements for their typical November and December monthly reports [2][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Congressional pre-election reporting dates (2026)fec.gov
  2. 2FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 Pre- and Post-General reportsfec.gov
  3. 3FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 Quarterly filersfec.gov
  4. 4FEC | Dates and deadlines | 2026 Monthly filersfec.gov

9. How does campaign fundraising and outside group spending compare between the Paxton and Talarico campaigns for the 2026 cycle?

Talarico Q3 2026 Fundraising$60.2 D64 million [1][2][3]
Paxton Q3 2026 Fundraising (all committees)$18 million [1][2][3]
Republican Outside Spending (overall by Oct 15-21)~$239 million [2][3]
James Talarico significantly outraised Ken Paxton in direct campaign funds. During Q3 2026 (July 1-September 30), Talarico's campaign brought in an estimated $60.2 to $64 million, compared to Paxton's campaign and affiliated committees' combined $18 million [1][2][3]. Talarico also spent considerably more directly, with $67.2 million, which was roughly 9.5 times Paxton's principal campaign spending [1][2][3]. Cumulatively, Talarico reported $72.0 million raised since the beginning of 2025, far exceeding Paxton's $16.8 million [4].
Outside spending largely reversed Talarico's direct fundraising advantage for Paxton. Despite Talarico's dominance in direct fundraising, outside spending largely favored Paxton, effectively reversing the overall financial advantage [5]. By mid-September, pro-Paxton conservative groups had spent approximately $98.5 million on advertising, significantly more than the $3.7 million spent by pro-Talarico groups [5]. By October 15-21, Republican outside spending supporting Paxton or attacking Talarico was reported around $239 million overall [2][3]. The principal pro-Paxton vehicle was Texas PAC, linked to the Senate Leadership Fund [5].
Talarico leads in direct funding, but Paxton gains from outside support. Overall, Talarico dominated candidate fundraising and direct campaign spending, but Paxton benefited from a much larger outside-spending machine, particularly from national Republican groups [2][3][6]. As of October 15, Kalshi priced Talarico at 62% and Paxton at 38%, which is consistent with Talarico's polling and direct-money advantage despite Paxton's substantial outside support [2][3][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1James Talarico says raised Q3 record $64 million in Texas...cnbc.com
  2. 2See Q3 campaign finance reports in Texas' US Senate racecommunityimpact.com
  3. 3James Talarico raises record $64 million in third quartertexastribune.org
  4. 4Tracking the money raised and spent in the U.S. Senate race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton - The Texas Tribunetexastribune.org
  5. 5Paxton-Talarico contest on course to demolish Texas...houstonpublicmedia.org
  6. 6Texas Senate Race Odds & Predictions 2026news.kalshi.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of October 22, 2026, prediction markets position James Talarico (D) as the favorite for the Texas U.S. Senate seat. Polymarket shows about 68% probability for Talarico versus Ken Paxton (R) at 33%, while Kalshi’s live page indicates Talarico 68% and Paxton 32% [1][2]. This market sentiment is stronger than public polling, where PredictionEdge’s October 22 aggregation has Talarico at 49.1% and Paxton at 46.7% (Talarico +2.5) [3]. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll, conducted September 25–October 5, found Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%, and Libertarian Ted Brown 1%, with a ±3.34-point margin of error [4]. Catalysts supporting Talarico include a persistent small polling lead, Democratic enthusiasm noted by the UT/Texas Politics Project, strong fundraising, and the Dallas Morning News editorial endorsement [4][5]. A late Talarico market rally was observed, with Kalshi moving from 63% on October 20 to 64% on October 21 [6][5].
Bearish catalysts for Talarico include polling margins remaining within sampling error and several near-tied or Paxton-leading polls [5]. Texas’s Republican baseline, Paxton’s outside financial support, and President Trump’s involvement also contribute [5]. Kalshi News reported Elon Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund, with the same amount going to a Texas PAC supporting Paxton; this late spending and turnout could move the race [6][5]. The central market risk is a late polling-to-vote translation failure: Talarico’s roughly 67–68% market probability implies a meaningful favorite, but the underlying public polling shows Talarico at +2.5 [3] and +3 [4], and includes ties and small Paxton leads [6][5][1]. The market is pricing a narrow Talarico win with substantial upset risk, not a landslide [6][5][1].
The practical catalyst calendar from October 22 onward includes the October 23 mail-ballot application deadline, followed by the remaining early-vote turnout and composition through October 30 [7][8]. Final in-person early voting concludes on October 30 [7][8]. Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026, which will bring late-count results [7][8]. From November 4 onward, potential recount and certification processes will be key [7][8]. Polymarket’s winner contract, with approximately $5.5 million in volume, resolves on agreement from AP, Fox News, and NBC calls on the winner, or official certification [1][9]. Market settlement may therefore lag Election Day if calls or certification are delayed [1][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1Texas Senate Election Winnerpolymarket.com
  2. 2Texas Senate Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Talarico vs. Paxton | Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 32026 Texas Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 4Latest UT/Texas Politics Poll Finds Historic Levels of Competition in Texas Midterm Elections | The Texas Politics Projecttexaspolitics.utexas.edu
  5. 5Texas Senate odds: Talarico leads Paxton 63% to 37%news.kalshi.com
  6. 6Talarico's Texas Senate odds hit 64% as early voting...news.kalshi.com
  7. 7Important Election Datessos.state.tx.us
  8. 8United States Senate election in Texas, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  9. 9Texas Senate Predictions & Real-Time Oddspolymarket.com