Short Answer

Incumbent Phil Scott is expected to win the Vermont Governorship in 2026, with Decision Desk HQ forecasting a 98% win probability and categorizing the race as "Safe Republican." His strong polling lead (44% to Janoo's 33% in July 2026) and substantial cash-on-hand advantage support this outcome, which the market prices at 90.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market for a Democratic winner in the Vermont gubernatorial race has remained stable, trading within a narrow range. The minor price fluctuations between late August and early September do not correspond to any reported developments. Republican incumbent Phil Scott's primary win on August 11 occurred before the available price data begins, and the market's subsequent lack of volatility suggests this outcome was already priced in.
A significant discrepancy exists between market pricing and available information. The contract's price, consistently above 90%, implies a near-certain Democratic victory. This is contrary to reports describing Governor Scott, a Republican, as a "strong favorite" for re-election. No provided context explains this high market probability for a Democratic win. The modest total volume and days with no trades suggest low liquidity, where small orders could cause price drift without significant news.
  • Since last update (~28d): Model-led Phil Scott probability rose +6.6pp, flipping our edge over the market by +9.8pp.
  • Our confidence score increased +3.0pp, as Amanda Janoo's model-led probability declined -6.6pp.
  • Republican Phil Scott maintains a double-digit lead in July 2026 polling.
  • Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 98% win probability, classifying the race as "Safe Republican."
  • Scott also holds a substantial cash-on-hand advantage as of early September 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Phil Scott 90.0% 94.4% Incumbent Governor Phil Scott is an overwhelming favorite, with Decision Desk HQ categorizing the race as 'Safe Republican'.
Amanda Janoo 7.4% 5.6% Amanda Janoo faces an uphill battle against incumbent Governor Scott, who holds a significant lead in polling.

Current Context

Incumbent Governor Phil Scott is a strong favorite for re-election in Vermont. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with early voting commencing September 19, 2026 [1][2][3]. Governor Scott, a Republican, won his primary election on August 11, 2026 [4][5]. Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo, an economist, won the Democratic primary in August 2026 and is running against Scott [6][7]. Decision Desk HQ forecasts Governor Scott with a 98% win probability [8]. The 2026 Vermont gubernatorial general election has not yet taken place [9][10].
Fundraising shows a split dynamic between candidates' finances. Since the primary, Amanda Janoo has outraised Governor Scott by more than two-to-one [6][7]. However, Governor Scott maintains a significant cash-on-hand advantage [6][7]. Other candidates on the ballot include Dean Roy of the Freedom and Unity Party, June Goodband of the Green Mountain Peace and Justice Party of Vermont, and independent Brian Judd [4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Vermont 2026 General Electionthegreenpapers.com
  2. 2Vermont 2026 Elections: Races, Ballot Measures, and Pollingwhatsonmyballot.info
  3. 3Vermont Election Dates 2026: Voter Deadlines | Elections Centerelections.mytimetovote.com
  4. 4Phil Scott (Vermont) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 52026 Vermont Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Amanda Janoo outraises Phil Scott, but has less cash on hand | Vermont Publicvermontpublic.org
  7. 7Janoo outraises Scott in race for Vermont governorwcax.com
  8. 82026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Vermont Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 10Vermont gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves based on the winning party of the Vermont Governor election. A "YES" resolution for a specific candidate's contract, such as Phil Scott, triggers if that candidate wins the election, while a "NO" resolution occurs if they do not. Trading for this market commences on November 3, 8:00 am EST, and the maximum payout date is set for November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Phil Scott $0.92 $0.11 90%
Amanda Janoo $0.09 $0.93 7%

Market Discussion

The 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, has not yet occurred as of September 9, 2026, and features incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott against Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo [1][2][3]. Prediction markets and election forecasts overwhelmingly favor Phil Scott, assigning him a win probability between 96% and 99.8% despite reports of his lowest approval ratings in a decade and Janoo currently outraising him in campaign fundraising [4][5][6][7][8][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 12026 Vermont gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Phil Scott (Vermont) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 32026 Vermont Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Amanda Janoo outraises Phil Scott, but has less cash on hand | Vermont Publicvermontpublic.org
  5. 5Vermont election 2026 spotlights Phil Scott's reelection fightburlingtonfreepress.com
  6. 62026 Vermont Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  7. 7Vermont Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  8. 82026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Vermont — Governor — 2026 forecast — Akashicakashic.app

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good

Largest single print on GOVPARTYVT-26-D carried 37% of its $2,078 tape (window is 63% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score71Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
79Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · high confidence

Largest single print on GOVPARTYVT-26-D carried 37% of its $2,078 tape (window is 63% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
85Deep

Size fills near the screen price

2 contracts · worst first

Amanda Janoo80
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 5.9% of price over 9 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,299 · 24h
Phil Scott86
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.2% of price over 4 traded bars

24h traded notional $5,625 · 24h
Move quality
69Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first

Phil Scott65
Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Amanda Janoo86
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Phil Scott100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Amanda Janoo100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
71Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 80 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~3% of a 18.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.5c slippage (~3% of a 18.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Phil Scott79Market scoreLiquidity86Move quality65Rule clarity100
Why 79
Liquidity
86 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.2% of price over 4 traded bars

24h traded notional $5,625 · 24h
Move quality
65 · Mostly confirmed · high confidence

Volume opposes the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Amanda Janoo82Market scoreLiquidity80Move quality86Rule clarity100
Why 82
Liquidity
80 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 5.9% of price over 9 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,299 · 24h
Move quality
86 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What polling data and historical precedents underpin Phil Scott's status as the overwhelming favorite in the 2026 election?

Win Probability (Prediction Markets)Roughly 90% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Win Probability (Decision Desk HQ)98% [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Job Approval Rating (July 2026)48% [1][7][8][9]
Governor Phil Scott is widely favored to win the 2026 election. Prediction markets assign him roughly a 90% chance of victory, while Decision Desk HQ forecasts a 98% probability [2]. This strong position stems from his significant incumbency advantage, consistently high historical approval ratings, and a proven ability to outperform expectations in a state that typically votes Democratic in federal elections [1]. Scott has demonstrated remarkable electoral resilience, winning five consecutive gubernatorial elections, frequently by larger margins than in previous cycles, effectively distinguishing his personal brand from the broader Republican party's national standing [1].
Despite his strong lead, Scott's approval ratings have recently declined. Recent polling data from July 2026 indicates Governor Scott maintains a clear lead over his Democratic challengers, including Aly Richards and Amanda Janoo [1]. Specifically, June 2026 polling shows Phil Scott with 42% support compared to 27% for Amanda Janoo [6]. However, his job approval rating experienced a downward trend in 2026, dropping to 48% in a July 2026 UNH poll, marking his lowest approval since 2022 [1]. This decline is primarily attributed to a decrease in support among his own Republican base [1].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Latest poll shows Vermont Gov. Phil Scott's approval ratings... - WPTZmynbc5.com
  2. 2Vermont Governor Election Winner - Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 32026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 42026 Vermont Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  5. 5Will a Republican Win the Vermont Governor Election?lines.com
  6. 62026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Phil Scott's approval numbers slipping, new poll findsvermontpublic.org
  8. 8Scott sees job approval fall to new low, holds clear lead over Dem...vermontbiz.com
  9. 9Is Republican Gov. Phil Scott still popular enough to win in blue VT?burlingtonfreepress.com

6. How do Amanda Janoo's and Phil Scott's campaign fundraising and cash-on-hand compare in the run-up to the November 2026 election?

Amanda Janoo Total Fundraising~$415,000 [1][2]
Phil Scott Total Fundraising~$63,000 [1][2]
Phil Scott Cash-on-Hand$200,000 (early September 2026) [2]
Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo has significantly outraised incumbent Governor Phil Scott. Janoo's campaign fundraising reached approximately $415,000 in the most recent reporting period, compared to Scott's $63,000 [1][2]. This indicates that Janoo has outraised Scott by nearly a two-to-one ratio since the primaries [1][2].
Despite Janoo's higher fundraising totals, Phil Scott maintains a financial advantage in cash-on-hand. Scott reported $200,000 as of early September 2026, in contrast to Janoo's reported $60,000 during the same period [2]. As of September 9, 2026, aggregated Federal Election Commission (FEC) data for these candidates in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election is not publicly available [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Amanda Janoo outraises Phil Scott, but has less cash on handvermontpublic.org
  2. 2Janoo outraises Scott in race for Vermont governor - WCAXwcax.com
  3. 32026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

7. What potential political catalysts or policy debates before November 2026 could significantly alter Governor Phil Scott's lead over Amanda Janoo?

Phil Scott Win Probability (Prediction Markets)86% to 99.8% [1][2][3][4]
Phil Scott Win Probability (Decision Desk HQ)98% [5][6]
Phil Scott Lead over Janoo11 points (July 2026 UNH survey) [5][6]
Governor Phil Scott maintains a significant lead ahead of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. Prediction markets strongly favor Scott, estimating his win probability between 86% and 99.8% [1][2][3][4]. Decision Desk HQ reinforces this assessment, forecasting a 98% win probability for Scott and categorizing the race as Safe Republican with a projected R+29 margin, based on fundamental factors like incumbency and partisan baseline [5][6]. However, several potential political catalysts and policy debates could significantly alter this dynamic, including concerns over property taxes, economic recovery, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), climate change policy, and the incumbent's legislative veto strategy [7][2][4][8].
Amanda Janoo faces challenges, though policy debates could sway undecided voters. Her primary hurdles are low name recognition and Phil Scott's incumbency advantage [7][1][2][4]. While Governor Scott's job approval rating declined to approximately 48-51% by mid-2026, he still maintains an 11-point lead over Janoo among likely voters in available polling, such as a July 2026 University of New Hampshire survey [7][2][9][10][5][6]. A substantial portion of voters remain undecided or unfamiliar with Janoo [7][2][9][10][5][6]. Therefore, outcomes from debates concerning property tax issues, economic recovery, the impact of AI, climate change policy, and the incumbent's legislative veto strategy could be crucial in swaying these undecided voters or those not yet familiar with Janoo [7][2][4][8].
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 Vermont gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 22026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  3. 32026 Vermont Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
  4. 4Phil Scott: 2026 Vermont Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 52026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Vermont governor election 2026: Amanda Janoo faces Phil Scottburlingtonfreepress.com
  8. 8So, Anything Happen While I Was Out? | The Vermont Political Observer.thevpo.org
  9. 9[PDF] July 21, 2026 - VERMONT DIVIDED ON SCOTT'S JOB...scholars.unh.edu
  10. 10Phil Scott's approval numbers slipping, new poll findsvermontpublic.org

8. To what extent could the national political environment in Fall 2026 impact voter turnout and candidate preference in the Vermont gubernatorial race?

Scott's Win Probability (Prediction Markets)90-91% (prediction markets) [1][2][3]
Scott's Polling Lead (July 2026)Scott 44%, Janoo 33% (University of New Hampshire) [4][1][5]
Decision Desk HQ Win Probability98% (Decision Desk HQ late August 2026) [6][7][8]
Governor Phil Scott seeks reelection, potentially insulated from national trends. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott is campaigning for a sixth two-year term in the Vermont gubernatorial race scheduled for November 3, 2026, where he faces Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo. Other candidates on the ballot include Dean Roy, June Goodband, and Brian Judd [9][5][10][11][6][8]. While the broader national political environment typically influences election outcomes, Governor Scott has historically maintained a degree of separation from these wider trends. This insulation is attributed to his consistently high personal approval ratings and his positioning as a moderate Republican within a state that largely leans Democratic [3][6][8].
Forecasts strongly predict Governor Scott's victory based on polling and fundamentals. Prediction markets indicate a significant advantage for Governor Scott, showing probabilities of a Republican victory ranging between 90% and 91% [1][2][3]. Complementing this, polling data from the University of New Hampshire in July 2026 shows Scott leading Janoo with 44% support compared to Janoo's 33% [4][1][5]. Further emphasizing his strong position, a forecast as of late August 2026 assigns Phil Scott a 98% win probability. This projection categorizes the race as 'Safe Republican' and is entirely based on fundamental factors such as the national political environment, incumbency, and party cycle effects [6][7][8].
Sources (11)
  1. 12026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  2. 2Vermont Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 3Will a Republican Win the Vermont Governor Election?lines.com
  4. 42026 Polls: Vermont Governor - 270toWin.com270towin.com
  5. 52026 Vermont gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  6. 62026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  8. 82026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9VT Governor 2026 - Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  10. 102026 Vermont Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  11. 11Phil Scott (Vermont) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

9. How do Governor Phil Scott and Amanda Janoo's platforms differ on key Vermont issues such as economic development, healthcare, and environmental policy?

Prediction Market Odds (Scott)Over 90% for Republican victory [1][2][3]
Decision Desk HQ ForecastSafe Republican (98% probability for Scott) [4][5]
Janoo's Healthcare ProposalState-funded universal primary care [6][7]
Governor Phil Scott and Amanda Janoo propose distinct policy approaches for Vermont. Governor Scott's platform emphasizes fiscal conservatism, including opposition to new taxes, and supports gradual, affordability-focused environmental policies, alongside market-based healthcare reforms [8][7]. In contrast, Amanda Janoo's progressive platform focuses on preventing "managed decline" and proposes state-funded universal primary care, to be funded by a surcharge on income over $250,000 [6][7]. She also advocates for increased taxes on second homes and short-term rentals to address housing and economic issues [6][7].
Incumbent Phil Scott holds a strong advantage in the upcoming election. As of September 9, 2026, incumbent Phil Scott is heavily favored to win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. Prediction markets consistently show odds exceeding 90% for a Republican victory [1][2][3]. Decision Desk HQ reinforces this, designating the race as "Safe Republican" with a 98% probability of Scott winning [4][5].
Sources (8)
  1. 12026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  2. 2Vermont Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  3. 3Vermont Governor winner Elections Prediction Market - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
  4. 42026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Amanda Janoo for Governor of Vermontjanooforvt.com
  7. 7Amanda Janoo wins Democratic primary for Vermont governorvermontpublic.org
  8. 8Phil Scott: 2026 Vermont Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Key catalysts for prediction markets in this race have included Governor Phil Scott's formal re-election announcement [1][2][3], the competitiveness of the Democratic primary, which Amanda Janoo won on August 11, 2026 [1][2][3][4], and the impact of the legislative session's end on campaign activity [1][2][3]. Phil Scott secured the Republican nomination on the same date [5].
Incumbent Phil Scott remains the heavy favorite in prediction markets, recently polling at ~91% probability [6][7][8][2]. Decision Desk HQ forecasts him as "Safe Republican" with a 98% win probability [9][10]. This outlook persists despite Scott facing his lowest approval ratings in a decade, 48% as of July 2026, and challenger Amanda Janoo outraised him in recent fundraising [6][7][8][2]. The general election on November 3, 2026, serves as the final major timeline date [6][7][8][1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (10)
  1. 1Will a Republican Win the Vermont Governor Election?lines.com
  2. 22026 Vermont Governor Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  3. 3Will Phil Scott Win Vermont's 2026 GOP Governor Primary?lines.com
  4. 42026 Vermont Governor Live Election Results | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Vermont Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Amanda Janoo outraises Phil Scott, but has less cash on hand | Vermont Publicvermontpublic.org
  7. 7Janoo outraises Scott in race for Vermont governorwcax.com
  8. 8Vermont election 2026 spotlights Phil Scott's reelection fightburlingtonfreepress.com
  9. 92026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 10Phil Scott (Vermont) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org