Vermont Governor winner?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Phil Scott is most likely to win the Vermont Governor race, seeing no actionable edge.
1. Executive Verdict
- Incumbent Phil Scott benefits from historically high approval ratings.
- Scott consistently wins in a federally Democratic-leaning state.
- Vermont's strong economy features 2.1% GDP growth in 2026.
- Low 2.9% unemployment in Vermont boosts Scott's re-election chances.
- Scott's campaign emphasizes bipartisanship and fiscal responsibility.
- "Vermont Promise" plan focuses on affordability to sway voters.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Scott | 93.2% | 87.8% | Market higher by 5.4pp |
| Amanda Janoo | 13.0% | 12.2% | Market higher by 0.8pp |
Current Context
Vermont's primary elections concluded, setting the general election stage. Amanda Janoo, an economist and political newcomer campaigning on a progressive platform, narrowly won the Democratic gubernatorial primary with 49% of the vote against Aly Richards' 46% [^], [^], [^]. Richards has since conceded and pledged support to Janoo [^]. Incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott ran unopposed in his primary, seeking his sixth two-year term [^]. Voter turnout was notably low, with only 3% of registered voters casting ballots before election day [^]. Other primary results included Molly Gray winning the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor and Gerald Malloy securing the Republican nomination for Vermont's U.S. House seat [^], [^].
Key data reveals shifts in incumbent popularity and campaign finances. Governor Phil Scott's approval rating has experienced a recent decline, dropping 10 points to a four-year low in a University of New Hampshire poll [^]. A report from July 24, 2026, indicated his approval at 48%, a three-point drop from earlier in the month and reportedly falling below 50% for the first time [^]. As of late July, campaign fundraising showed Aly Richards had raised approximately $453,000, while Amanda Janoo had raised about $308,000, with Richards also holding double Janoo's cash reserves [^]. Despite the recent decline, Governor Scott is still largely considered one of the nation's most popular governors, though analysts note the challenge for opponents given his strong past re-election performances of 73% in 2024 and 69% in 2022 [^]. Amanda Janoo is perceived by some as "the most progressive candidate for governor we've ever had," drawing comparisons to Senator Bernie Sanders [^]. The next significant event is the general election on November 3, 2026 [^].
Voter concerns about affordability will shape the upcoming general election. A primary concern among Vermonters is the rising cost of living, including high property taxes, increasing healthcare costs, and expensive housing, which contributes to residents leaving the state [^]. Discussions also revolve around Amanda Janoo's progressive policy proposals, such as new taxes on digital advertising by large tech companies, increased regulations on AI data centers, and a surcharge on high incomes to fund free primary care [^], [^]. There is ongoing debate about Governor Scott's moderate Republican positions, including his pro-choice stance, support for LGBTQ+ rights, and past votes for Democratic presidential candidates, especially as he faces a more progressive challenger [^]. The effectiveness of recent education reform efforts and voluntary school district mergers remains a topic of interest [^]. The low turnout in the primary election raises questions about voter engagement in the general election [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which asks if the Democratic party will win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election, has displayed a stable, sideways price trend. The contract has traded in a very narrow nine-cent range, from a low of 84 cents to its current high of 93.2 cents, implying a consistently high probability of a Democratic victory. Despite the recent conclusion of the primary elections, which confirmed the general election matchup between progressive Democrat Amanda Janoo and incumbent Republican Phil Scott, there have been no significant price movements or reactions. The price has drifted upwards slightly to its current peak, but this change cannot be attributed to any specific news event due to the market's trading dynamics.
The most critical technical factor of this market is the complete lack of trading activity, with a total volume of zero contracts traded. This absence of volume means the price does not reflect any collective trader sentiment or conviction. The price movements are likely the result of an automated market maker's algorithm or initial price settings rather than buy or sell pressure from participants. Because no trades have ever been executed, conventional technical indicators like support and resistance levels are nonexistent and inapplicable.
In conclusion, while the high price level of 93.2 cents suggests overwhelming confidence in a Democratic win, this is a misleading indicator. The zero-volume nature of the market reveals that it is entirely illiquid and dormant. The price represents a theoretical probability that has not been validated, challenged, or confirmed by any actual market participants. Therefore, the chart does not provide a reliable measure of true market sentiment regarding the outcome of the Vermont gubernatorial race.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For a specific listed candidate, a YES resolution occurs if that candidate, representing their specified party (e.g., Republican for Phil Scott), wins the 2026 Vermont Governor election; a NO resolution occurs if they do not win. Trading for this market begins on November 3, 8:00 AM EST. Final settlement is based on the official winning party of the election, with a maximum payout date of November 3, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Scott | $0.95 | $0.07 | 93% |
| Amanda Janoo | $0.07 | $0.95 | 13% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding the "Vermont Governor winner" primarily focus on the sustained popularity and electoral dominance of incumbent Republican Governor Phil Scott, who secured a fifth term in the November 2024 election with a commanding 73.43% of the vote [^]. His consistent victories, often with increasing margins, and his ability to weaken Democratic supermajorities in the state legislature are frequently highlighted as key factors [^]. As of August 2026, the debate has shifted to the upcoming November gubernatorial election, where newly-minted Democratic primary winner Amanda Janoo, a "bold progressive," will challenge Scott [^]. The central argument now concerns whether Janoo can overcome Scott's established appeal and strong incumbency, as prediction markets and expert opinions have historically indicated a high probability of another Republican victory in the general election [^].
4. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Question?
| Research Status | Data Not Found (Error 404) |
|---|---|
| Detailed Error Message | Not Found |
| Source of Issue | Internal Research Tool |
The requested research data could not be retrieved. An internal system error prevented access to the information, with the system reporting a '404 - Not Found' status. This status specifically indicates that the content or resource sought was unavailable at its designated location.
This error prevented the generation of key findings. Without the necessary data, a comprehensive summary, specific data points, or findings for the question regarding incumbent Phil Scott's approval ratings could not be produced. Therefore, further investigation into the original research query or the availability of the required resources is necessary to resolve this issue and obtain the requested information.
5. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Error Code 404) |
|---|---|
| Detail | Resource Not Found (System Error) |
| Findings Outcome | Unable to extract findings (No Data) |
Research attempt failed due to a system error. An attempt to research the requested question encountered an error with code 404. This code specifically indicates that the resource or data source could not be located or found. Consequently, this critical issue prevented any retrieval of relevant information for the query.
No information extracted due to persistent system issue. Due to the described system error, it was not possible to extract any key findings, specific data points, or detailed information pertinent to the original query. Therefore, the comprehensive summary and supporting data requested cannot be provided at this time.
6. Why Was Research For This Question Unavailable?
| Research Status | Failed (404 Not Found) |
|---|---|
| Error Code | 404 |
| Detail | Not Found |
Research on Amanda Janoo's polling could not be completed. The requested research, focused on evaluating Amanda Janoo's potential polling performance, could not be executed due to an access error. The system reported a '404 Not Found' error, indicating that the content or resource essential for performing the analysis was not accessible at this time.
Specific findings on polling numbers remain unavailable due to this issue. This problem prevents the generation of specific findings, data points, or detailed analysis regarding Amanda Janoo's head-to-head polling numbers in Chittenden County. Consequently, it is currently impossible to assess whether her first general election poll would show her polling at least 5 percentage points higher than Brenda Siegel's final 2022 vote share of 39.7% in that county. Further attempts to resolve the underlying access problem will be required to proceed with this research.
7. What is the result of the failed research attempt?
| Research Status | Failed (Error Code 404) |
|---|---|
| Details | Resource Not Found |
| Data Availability | None |
The research query encountered a '404 - Not Found' error during execution. This technical issue indicates that the requested resource or data could not be located on the server. The inability to find the resource prevented the retrieval of any specific findings regarding Senator Bernie Sanders' potential campaign involvement with Amanda Janoo.
No substantive information or data could be extracted from the query. As a direct result of this system error, no key data points or detailed findings were available for summarization. Consequently, the intended output for this section remains entirely unavailable, offering no insights into the specific question.
8. Why Did the Research Attempt Fail to Find Data?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Error message) |
|---|---|
| Error Code | 404 (System report) |
| Detail Message | Not Found (System report) |
Research on Amanda Janoo's debate impact encountered a critical system error. The research query aimed to determine if Amanda Janoo could alter the race's trajectory during televised debates, specifically by assessing a statistically significant shift of 3 points or more towards her in the first public poll following the initial one-on-one debate compared to the last pre-debate poll from the same reputable firm. However, the system encountered an unexpected '404 Not Found' error during the attempted research process. This error indicates that the system was unable to locate or retrieve the information required to address the query.
Consequently, no specific data or findings were obtainable for analysis. Due to the system's inability to access the required information, no specific data points, statistics, or textual findings pertinent to the research question could be extracted. The research process concluded without any access to relevant information, making it impossible to summarize or answer whether Janoo altered the race's trajectory.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Republican incumbent Phil Scott's re-election prospects for his sixth two-year term are significantly supported by his historically high approval ratings and consistent victories in a state that otherwise leans Democratic federally [^] . Furthermore, a sustained strong economic performance in Vermont, evidenced by 2.1% GDP growth and 2.9% unemployment in 2026, could bolster his chances [^]. Scott's campaign strategy, potentially highlighting bipartisanship and fiscal responsibility, and the "Vermont Promise" plan released by the Vermont Republican Party in July 2026 focusing on affordability, are key to swaying undecided voters [^]. Any struggles or lack of clear policy differentiation from his Democratic challenger, Amanda Janoo, who won the primary on August 11, 2026, would also benefit Scott [^].
Conversely, a decline in Governor Scott's popularity due to unforeseen controversies or policy failures could make him vulnerable [^] . Despite his incumbency, a strong and well-funded campaign by Amanda Janoo, potentially coupled with a national Democratic wave in the 2026 midterms, could mobilize voters and overcome Scott's advantage in this politically "blue" state [^]. While recent economic performance has been positive, a future economic downturn, possibly influenced by factors such as federal funding cuts or the impact of state-level policies like education reform under Act 73, could hurt the incumbent's standing [^]. Increased voter turnout, particularly among demographics that typically lean Democratic, could also favor the challenger in the November 3, 2026 general election [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Republican incumbent Phil Scott's re-election prospects for his sixth two-year term are significantly supported by his historically high approval ratings and consistent victories in a state that otherwise leans Democratic federally [^] .
- Trigger: Furthermore, a sustained strong economic performance in Vermont, evidenced by 2.1% GDP growth and 2.9% unemployment in 2026, could bolster his chances [^] .
- Trigger: Scott's campaign strategy, potentially highlighting bipartisanship and fiscal responsibility, and the "Vermont Promise" plan released by the Vermont Republican Party in July 2026 focusing on affordability, are key to swaying undecided voters [^] .
- Trigger: Any struggles or lack of clear policy differentiation from his Democratic challenger, Amanda Janoo, who won the primary on August 11, 2026, would also benefit Scott [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
