Short Answer

Phil Scott is likely to win the Vermont Governor election in 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 77.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market's valuation of a Republican victory is supported by external forecasts establishing incumbent Phil Scott as the clear favorite. A Decision Desk HQ forecast from October 21 assigned Scott a 94% probability of winning, projecting a decisive R+21 margin. This strong outlook is consistent with aggregated data from other prediction markets, which also place Republican win odds near 76%. The contract's move from 72% to 77% in mid-October reflects this consensus solidifying around Scott over Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo.
The price has held at the 77% level through October 22, suggesting the market has fully priced in the available data. This stability indicates no new information has emerged to challenge the view that the race is a likely Republican hold.
  • Since last update (~42d): Phil Scott's model probability decreased 14.6pp; the edge compressed as our model led.
  • Amanda Janoo's market probability increased 16.6pp; the edge widened as the market led.
  • The overall model-market edge for Phil Scott compressed by 1.6pp.
  • Phil Scott leads, with Decision Desk HQ projecting a 94% win probability.
  • Scott's support historically underestimates in polls, often by 5-10 points.
  • Amanda Janoo appears competitive, buoyed by high-profile endorsements.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Phil Scott 77.0% 79.8% Phil Scott maintains high approval ratings and cross-party appeal as a strong incumbent.
Amanda Janoo 24.0% 20.2% Amanda Janoo faces a significant uphill battle against a popular incumbent with broad support.

Current Context

As of October 22, 2026, prediction markets position Republican incumbent Phil Scott as the clear favorite over Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo. Kalshi shows Scott at approximately 76% and Janoo at 24% [1]. Polymarket indicates Republican victory probabilities at 76% on about $118,000 in volume, with aggregated venue data also placing Scott near 76% [2][3][4]. Decision Desk HQ's October 21 forecast aligns with Scott's strong position, assigning him a 94% win probability and Janoo 6%, projecting an R+21 margin, and rating the race Likely Republican [5]. The DDHQ model weights fundamentals at 69%, market data at 16%, and polls at 15% [5].
Polling data presents a tighter race than market or forecast indicators. A September University of New Hampshire survey showed Janoo ahead by 6 points within the margin of error [6]. A later UNH poll, cited by DDHQ, placed Scott ahead 43%-41% [5]. Another September survey indicated Scott with a 9.3-point lead [7], while a recent State Navigate poll reportedly showed Scott ahead by 2 points with a ±3.2-point margin [8]. Polling expert Chase Harrison described the competing September surveys as comparable and very good [7]. VTDigger reported that Scott's pre-election support has been historically underestimated by roughly 14 points on average since 2016; however, experts caution that past polling misses do not guarantee a similar outcome in 2026 [7]. Janoo has received endorsements from Senator Bernie Sanders and former Governor Howard Dean [9]. Reporting characterizes Scott's reelection race as the tightest of his tenure, though he remains confident and benefits from incumbency and a history of outperforming polls [8][9].
Outside spending reflects a tightening race, highlighting key election dynamics. The tightening nature of the race has attracted significant outside spending. A Republican Governors Association-linked super PAC, A Stronger Vermont, spent approximately $463,000 in the first half of October, following a $400,000 RGA contribution [10]. While Janoo had raised about $890,000 overall against Scott's roughly $590,000, Scott has benefited from substantially greater pro-campaign super-PAC spending [9]. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [11]. Main uncertainty remains whether national Democratic anti-Trump turnout and Janoo's late momentum can overcome Scott's incumbency, the structural Republican advantage in this contest, and his historical polling underestimation [1][2][5][7].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Vermont Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Pollskalshi.com
  2. 2Vermont Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  3. 3Vermont Governor 2026 Odds and Forecast | Nijinnmidterms.nijinn.io
  4. 4Vermont Governor Election Winner: Live Odds & Probability | Parideskparidesk.com
  5. 52026 Vermont Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6"Partisan Headwinds Hamper Scott in Race With Janoo for Governor of Ver" by UNH Survey Centerscholars.unh.edu
  7. 7Political polls historically underestimate Phil Scott. Will 2026 be different? - VTDiggervtdigger.org
  8. 8Vermont governor's race latest: Janoo picks up endorsements, Scott’s confidence remains - WPTZmynbc5.com
  9. 9Vermont governor faces tightest reelection race of his tenure | WAMCwamc.org
  10. 10Pro-Phil Scott super PAC launches ad buy, another signal Vermont governor’s race could be close - VTDiggervtdigger.org
  11. 11Vermont gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market features contracts on individual candidates in the Vermont Governor general election. A "Yes" resolution for a specific candidate's contract (e.g., "Phil Scott Republican party") occurs if that named candidate wins the election, while a "No" resolution occurs if they do not win. The market overall resolves by identifying the winning party of the candidate who secures the Vermont governorship.

The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Trading on the exchange is paused weekly for scheduled maintenance from 3-5 AM ET.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Phil Scott $0.77 $0.24 77%
Amanda Janoo $0.25 $0.76 24%

Market Discussion

As of October 22, 2026, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket favor incumbent Republican Phil Scott to win the Vermont governor election, with odds around 76–77% against Democrat Amanda Janoo [1][2]. While Polling Forecast also projects Scott ahead [3], recent polling data indicates a tighter race, with Scott leading by 6.4-7.2 percentage points on average, and one poll even showing Janoo ahead [4][5]. Concerns about Polymarket's low volume and reliability as a measure of voter sentiment have been noted [6], and as of October 22, 2026, no official winner has been determined, with the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Vermont Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Pollskalshi.com
  2. 2Vermont Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 3Vermont governor: 2026 forecast | Polling Forecastpollingforecast.com
  4. 42026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 5Vermont Governor polling averagetrackthevote.net
  6. 6Right or Wrong, Polymarket Is Betting on Vermontcompassvermont.com

4. Why do prediction markets and models from Decision Desk HQ show a much stronger lead for Phil Scott than recent head-to-head polls against Amanda Janoo?

DDHQ Phil Scott Win Probability94% [1][2]
Prediction Market Phil Scott Probability (Oct 20-21)76–77% [3][4][5]
DDHQ Fundamentals Weighting69% [1][2]
Decision Desk HQ's model projects a strong Phil Scott lead. The model estimated a 94% win probability for Phil Scott, a significantly higher lead than indicated by recent head-to-head polls, primarily because its methodological approach places substantial weight on fundamentals rather than polls [1][2]. Decision Desk HQ’s October 21 forecast allocated 69% of its weighting to fundamentals, 15% to polls, and 16% to markets, projecting an R+21 margin [1][2]. This model aims to estimate Election Day outcomes by incorporating factors such as incumbency, the national environment, presidential-party-cycle effects, campaign finances, and baseline/candidate fundamentals, which allows it to discount inconsistent poll results and project Scott's structural advantages [1][6][7].
Prediction markets show less certainty for Scott compared to the model. From October 20 to 21, the prediction market priced Phil Scott's win probability at approximately 76-77% and Amanda Janoo's at 24-25%, which was considerably less optimistic than the 94% projected by Decision Desk HQ [3][4][5]. This difference, with Kalshi indicating around 77% for Scott while Decision Desk HQ showed 94%, suggests the market did not reflect unanimous certainty [3][7]. The prediction market continued to acknowledge meaningful downside risk due to a substantial 16-point disagreement between two surveys conducted in the same week, alongside the limited public polling data available for Vermont [3][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 12026 Vermont Governor General Election Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Vermont Governor General Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 4Vermont Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Scott vs. Janoo | Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Live odds: Vermont Governor winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  6. 6Vermont 2026 Governor forecast: Scott vs. Janoo - FutureBallotfutureballot.com
  7. 7Amanda Janoo vs Phil Scott Polls: Vermont Governor 2026 | Prediction.comprediction.com

5. How does Amanda Janoo's campaign fundraising compare to Phil Scott's, factoring in outside spending from groups like the Republican Governors Association?

Amanda Janoo Total Fundraising$888,000 (as of mid-October 2026) [1][2]
Phil Scott Total Fundraising$590,000 (as of mid-October 2026) [1][2]
RGA Support for Scott (PAC)$400,000 (to A Stronger Vermont PAC) [1][3][4]
Amanda Janoo has outraised Governor Phil Scott in direct campaign fundraising efforts. As of mid-October 2026, Janoo had raised approximately $888,000 directly, compared to Scott's $590,000, and maintained a cash on hand lead of $307,000 versus Scott's $202,000 [1][2]. Janoo’s fundraising is largely propelled by small donors; by October 1, she had secured around $689,180 from individuals, more than double Scott’s approximate $323,570 [5][6]. In the latest reporting period, donors contributing $100 or less accounted for about $150,000 of Janoo's receipts, while Scott received $40,000 from this donor category [5][6]. Although Janoo surpassed Scott in fundraising during August and September, Scott began the election cycle with a considerable $300,000 surplus from his 2024 campaign [5][6].
Phil Scott's overall financial standing improves substantially with significant outside spending. Independent groups have channeled substantial funds into the race, notably the Republican Governors Association (RGA), which provided $400,000 to "A Stronger Vermont," a pro-Scott independent-expenditure PAC [1][3][4]. This PAC had spent nearly $175,000 on advertising by mid-October, with other reports indicating cumulative anti-Janoo spending exceeding $460,000 [1][3][4]. While not part of Scott's direct campaign receipts, this RGA-backed spending provides considerable additional advertising capacity for his campaign [1][3][4]. Support for Janoo also came from external sources, with the Democratic Governors Association funneling $40,000 to a political action committee, though the provided reports did not detail comparable spending by that committee [3][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Janoo Again Leads Gov. Scott in Fundraising as Campaign...sevendaysvt.com
  2. 2The Political Money is Kind of Underwhelmingthevpo.org
  3. 3Outside spending is pouring into Vermont's race for governorwcax.com
  4. 4Pro-Phil Scott super PAC launches ad blitz targeting...vermontpublic.org
  5. 5Amanda Janoo bests Phil Scott in September campaign...vtdigger.org
  6. 6Janoo raising more campaign money than Scott, but still...vermontpublic.org

6. What is the historical precedent for Phil Scott's polling underestimation in past elections, and how might that apply to the 2026 results?

Scott's Certified 2022 MarginScott +47.0 points (2022 election results [1][2])
UNH 2022 Implied vs. ActualUNH implied Scott +17, actual Scott +47 (secondary account [3])
Aggregated Public Poll 2026Scott ahead by 7.2 points (43.5%-36.3%) as of October 20, 2026 (aggregated polls [4][5])
Phil Scott's polling has historically been underestimated in Vermont gubernatorial elections. The University of New Hampshire (UNH) polls, in particular, implied significantly smaller margins for Scott than the certified results in both the 2022 and 2024 elections [3]. Scott's certified gubernatorial victory margins consistently increased from 8.8 points in 2016 to 47.0 points in 2022 [1][2]. For instance, UNH's 2022 estimate reportedly suggested a 17-point Scott margin, while the actual result was a 47-point victory for Scott [3]. Similarly, its 2024 estimates implied margins of +28 and +39, yet Scott won by more than 50 points [3]. These comparisons indicate substantial underestimation of Scott in those cycles, although the specific UNH figures are cited from a 2026 secondary account rather than archived poll releases [3]. The 2020 Vermont polling debate also highlighted how a single poll can be misleading, but this did not involve a clean Scott-specific underestimation [6].
The 2026 gubernatorial race presents different conditions than past elections. Scott's reported approval currently ranges between 47% and 57%, while his opponent Janoo exhibits comparatively strong favorability [3][7][5]. Furthermore, State Navigate's polling indicated that one-third of Scott voters also support Democratic lieutenant-governor candidate Molly Gray [5]. These signals suggest that the historical pattern of Scott's polling being underestimated may not transfer directly to the 2026 election [3][7][5]. As of October 20, 2026, the aggregated public-poll picture showed Scott leading by 7.2 points (43.5%-36.3%) [4][5]. However, UNH's September poll presented a contrasting view, showing Janoo ahead 49%-43%, which highlights an unusually large dispersion in current polls and adds uncertainty to any historical adjustment [4][5].
Prediction markets reflect Scott's advantage but acknowledge increased risk. While historical precedent supports adjusting the forecast towards Scott relative to a raw UNH +6 Janoo result, it does not justify mechanically adding 11 or more points to Scott's margin in this race [3][8][4][5][1][2]. The prediction market currently prices a Republican/Scott win at approximately 76%-77%, indicating that traders assign significant weight to Scott's incumbency and his past record of outperforming polls [8][4]. Despite this, the market's probability also implies meaningful downside risk if the changed conditions of 2026 invalidate the historical adjustment [3][8][4]. A qualitative assessment suggests Scott remains the favorite and the market probability is defensible; however, the race is materially less secure than his prior results, making a close Scott win or even a Janoo upset more plausible than the market's headline probability alone suggests [3][8][4][5][1][2].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Phil Scott (Vermont) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Vermont gubernatorial election, 2024 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Is Phil Scott Losing the 2026 Vermont Governor Race? | Prediction.comprediction.com
  4. 42026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 5Scott narrowly leads Janoo as Gray opens a wide leadprojects.statenavigate.com
  6. 6What if that poll was hot garbage?thevpo.org
  7. 7"Partisan Headwinds Hamper Scott in Race With Janoo for...scholars.unh.edu
  8. 8Vermont Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Scott vs. Janoo | Kalshikalshi.com

7. What impact could late-breaking national political trends in October 2026 have on voter turnout for Scott versus Janoo?

Vermont Youth Turnout 202225.7% [1]
Young Voters Extremely Likely to Vote (2026 Survey)56% [1]
Scott's Poll Underestimation (Average)Roughly 14 points [2]
Late-breaking national trends could shift voter turnout dynamics. Late-breaking national political trends in October 2026 have the potential to impact voter turnout asymmetrically, which could narrow Scott's lead if they increase Democratic enthusiasm and participation among young voters [2]. However, national trends may be less influential than local issues, as Vermont voters can distinguish Scott from the national Republican Party [2]. A national backlash against Donald Trump, particularly concerning issues such as affordability, healthcare, immigration, or democracy, could boost Democratic enthusiasm and increase participation among young and low-propensity voters, thereby reducing Scott's lead [2]. Conversely, a Republican-favorable late shock or weak Democratic mobilization could maintain or expand Scott's advantage by relying on older, habitual voters [2].
National conditions currently favor Democrats, but Scott retains a strong local advantage. The national political environment in late October favors Democrats, with national polling showing Trump's approval in the high 30s, Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot, and broad Democratic momentum reflected in race-rating shifts [3]. Nevertheless, Vermont's gubernatorial race remains rated as "likely Republican" due to Scott's strong structural and candidate-specific advantages [4]. Turnout is a central uncertainty, with Vermont polling experts identifying the participation of young voters, potentially energized by Janoo, versus older, habitual Scott voters, as a potentially decisive factor [2].
Young voter mobilization is key, though Scott has a history of outperforming polls. Young voters could materially improve Janoo's position if national or local events effectively mobilize them [1]. Vermont youth turnout was 25.7% in 2022, while a 2026 CIRCLE survey indicated that 56% of young respondents were "extremely likely to vote" [1]. Historically, Scott's autumn polls have underestimated his final vote share by approximately 14 points on average [2]. Late-breaking national trends should be considered a risk to Scott's current odds [2]. A significant turnout surge among young and anti-Trump voters could make the 24% Janoo market price appear too low, but absent measurable mobilization, Scott's polling history, older-voter advantage, and current market pricing continue to support him as the likelier winner [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Engaged young voters across Vermont aim to get their...vtdigger.org
  2. 2Political polls historically underestimate Phil Scott. Will...vnews.com
  3. 3What recent polling suggests will happen in the US...theconversation.com
  4. 42026 Midterm Update: Where Things Stand Two Weeks...jdsupra.com
  5. 5Vermont Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Scott vs. Janoo | Kalshikalshi.com

8. What evidence supports the underdog case for Amanda Janoo, considering her high-profile endorsements and tighter polling numbers?

Market vs Polling Probability (Janoo)24% market probability vs. 42% polling-based estimate (PoliAgg) [1][2]
Latest State Navigate PollScott ahead by 3 points (46% to 43%) [2][3]
University of New Hampshire Poll (Sept)Janoo ahead by 6 points (49% to 43%) [2][3]
Amanda Janoo's campaign appears substantially more competitive than prediction markets suggest. Prediction markets on Kalshi and Prediction Edge priced her around 24% between October 20–21, 2026 [1][2]. However, PoliAgg reported her market probability at 24% compared to polling-based estimates of approximately 42% [1][2]. This contrarian view is supported by recent polling data indicating a significant improvement in her numbers. While a six-poll average through October 4 showed Phil Scott leading by 7.2 points, the latest State Navigate poll narrowed this to a 3-point lead for Scott (46% to 43%) [2][3]. Furthermore, a University of New Hampshire poll conducted from September 17–21 even placed Janoo ahead by six points, 49% to 43%, demonstrating her potential to win [2][3].
A broad coalition of high-profile endorsements bolsters Janoo's candidacy. Her campaign has garnered significant support from national figures such as Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna, alongside key local Vermont leaders including Peter Welch, Becca Balint, former governor Howard Dean, and former lieutenant governor David Zuckerman [4][5][6][7]. Additionally, Janoo is backed by influential organizations like the Vermont Progressive Party, AFL-CIO/Vermont State Labor Council, VSEA, and Sierra Club Vermont [6][7]. Senator Sanders specifically cited her proposals on critical issues like health-care costs, property taxes, housing, and a statewide moratorium on AI data centers, commending her leadership and energy [4][5]. These endorsements are vital for enhancing her visibility, consolidating progressive and labor support, and could be crucial for driving voter turnout in a race that recent polling indicates is close enough for a late surge [6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Vermont Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Scott vs. Janoo | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 22026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  3. 3Amanda Janoo: 2026 Vermont Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 4Bernie Sanders endorses Amanda Janoo for Vermont...nhpr.org
  5. 5Bernie Sanders Endorses Janoo for Vermont Governorsevendaysvt.com
  6. 6Ro Khanna endorses Amanda Janoo in Vermont...wcax.com
  7. 7Amanda Janooballotpedia.org

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Vermont Governor Phil Scott (Republican) currently leads prediction markets at roughly 76%–77% as of October 22, 2026, against Amanda Janoo (Democrat) at roughly 24%–25% [1][2][3]. Kalshi shows approximately $577,219 in volume, with Polymarket at roughly $243,200 [1][2]. Despite market positioning, polling data suggests a tighter contest; a State Navigate October 2–4 survey of likely voters showed Scott ahead 46%–43%, with 8% undecided [4]. An aggregate by Prediction Edge placed Scott at 43.5% versus Janoo at 36.3% [5]. Bullish catalysts for Scott include incumbency, a favorable Republican structural rating, and significant outside spending, such as the Republican Governors Association-backed A Stronger Vermont PAC's roughly $463,000 expenditure in early October [6][7]. Cook Political Report has moved the race to Likely Republican [7].
Bullish catalysts for Janoo include endorsements from Bernie Sanders and former Governor Howard Dean [8][7]. Janoo has also demonstrated stronger campaign fundraising, reportedly raising approximately $890,000 compared to Scott's roughly $590,000, and holding about $307,000 cash on hand versus Scott's $202,000 [7]. Her campaign also rejected Democratic Governors Association ad support [7]. The market's primary bearish signal for Scott is recent repricing: a Polymarket tracker reported Scott's odds fell from approximately 94% thirty days prior to roughly 76% by October 22, while Janoo's rose from about 6.3% to roughly 24% [1][9]. This shift indicates traders acknowledge a substantially tighter race than initially expected [1][9].
The largest risk to Scott's favored position stems from potential polling error or late consolidation of votes [4][6]. The October State Navigate survey's 3-point margin falls within its ±3.2-point margin of error [4]. This is reported as Scott's tightest reelection race [6]. Janoo could benefit if undecided voters break against the incumbent or if voters currently supporting minor-party candidates—Dean Roy (Freedom and Unity), June Goodband (Green Mountain Peace and Justice), and Brian Judd (independent)—consolidate behind her [10][11][4][6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (11)
  1. 1Vermont Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Scott vs. Janoo | Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 2Vermont Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  3. 3Vermont Governor Election Winner: Live Odds & Probability | Parideskparidesk.com
  4. 4Scott narrowly leads Janoo as Gray opens a wide lead | State Navigateprojects.statenavigate.com
  5. 52026 Vermont Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  6. 6Vermont governor faces tightest reelection race of his tenure | WAMCwamc.org
  7. 7Pro-Phil Scott super PAC launches ad buy, another signal Vermont governor’s race could be close - VTDiggervtdigger.org
  8. 8Bernie Sanders endorses Amanda Janoo for Vermont governor | Vermont Publicvermontpublic.org
  9. 9Vermont Governor Race 2026: Polymarket Odds and Candidates | Vultaxapp.vultax.com
  10. 10Vermont gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Statewide Candidates - VTDiggervtdigger.org