Short Answer

Dan Cox is not expected to win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election; the market prices his victory at 6.3%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market exhibits a significant disconnect between its pricing and reported polling data. Contracts for a Democratic victory in the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election are trading at just 6.3%. This pricing is in direct contrast to recent polling that gives incumbent Democrat Wes Moore a 27-point lead over Republican challenger Dan Cox. The divergence between the market's low probability assessment and the Democrat's commanding lead in the polls is the defining characteristic of this contract.
The market has been static, trading in a narrow and low-conviction range between 2% and 8% since its inception. This sideways trajectory indicates traders have not reacted to news of the incumbent's strong polling position. With total volume over 6,400 contracts, the pricing is not an artifact of an illiquid market but reflects a stable consensus among participants. This consensus implies traders are either systematically discounting the polling data or pricing in an unstated variable that heavily favors the Republican candidate.
  • Since last update (~28d): Dan Cox's market probability declined -0.7pp, and the model's prediction tracked with a -0.6pp decrease.
  • This market-led shift compressed the model's negative edge by +0.1pp, moving from -0.3pp to -0.2pp.
  • Concurrently, Wes Moore's model probability increased +0.6pp, while the market increased +0.4pp.
  • Wes Moore holds a strong lead in his re-election bid.
  • Prediction markets and polling data strongly favor Moore's re-election.
  • Dan Cox faces a significant uphill battle against incumbent Governor Moore.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Dan Cox 6.3% 6.1% He previously contested the Maryland gubernatorial election.
Wes Moore 97.4% 93.9% The current Maryland Governor is expected to seek re-election.

Current Context

Maryland's 2026 gubernatorial election features a rematch and incumbent lead. The general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, pits incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore against Republican challenger Dan Cox [1][2][3]. As of early September 2026, polling data indicates Governor Moore holds a significant advantage, with one recent poll showing a 27-point lead over Cox [4][2]. Decision Desk HQ categorizes the race as "Safe Democratic" and projects Governor Moore as the winner [5][6][7].
Primary results confirm candidates; general election dates approach. Governor Moore secured the Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, with 88.26% of the vote [5][8]. Dan Cox won the Republican primary on the same date with 43.30% [9]. Key upcoming dates include early voting from October 22 to October 29, 2026, and a televised gubernatorial debate on October 6, 2026 [1][10]. The winner will commence a four-year term on January 20, 2027 [3].
Sources (10)
  1. 1What's at stake in MD elections? Notable races, ballot questionsthedailyrecord.com
  2. 22026 Maryland Governor and Lieutenant Governor Election | Smarter.Votesmarter.vote
  3. 32026 Maryland gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Moore Holds 27-Point Lead as Fundraising Gap With Cox Widens Ahead of November - Maryland Bay Newsmdbaynews.com
  5. 52026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  7. 72026 Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Maryland Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Maryland Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 102026 Gubernatorial Electionelections.maryland.gov

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi prediction market resolves based on the winning party of the Maryland Governor election. A "Yes" resolution for a specific candidate's contract occurs if that candidate wins the election, making their party the winning party. Conversely, a "No" resolution occurs if the candidate does not win. The market begins trading on November 3, 8:00 AM EST, with a maximum payout date of November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Wes Moore $0.98 $0.06 97%
Dan Cox $0.06 $0.98 6%

Market Discussion

Incumbent Democrat Wes Moore is widely expected to win the Maryland Governor election on November 3, 2026, against Republican nominee Dan Cox [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. As of September 9, 2026, polls and analyses show Moore with a significant lead and win probabilities consistently exceeding 95%, with some predictive models listing over 99% as of late August 2026 [1][2][4][8][9]. Prediction market traders also overwhelmingly favor Moore, with implied probabilities for his victory generally trading between 95% and 98% [8][10][11][12].

Sources (12)
  1. 12026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Maryland Governor and Lieutenant Governor Election | Smarter.Votesmarter.vote
  3. 3Maryland — Governor — 2026 forecast — Akashicakashic.app
  4. 4Moore Holds 27-Point Lead as Fundraising Gap With Cox Widens Ahead of November - Maryland Bay Newsmdbaynews.com
  5. 52026 Maryland Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Maryland gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  7. 72026 Maryland Governor Live Election Results | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 8Maryland Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 92026 Maryland Governor Markets | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 10Will a Democrat Win the Maryland Governor Election? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  11. 11Maryland Governor Election Winner Odds — Democrat 94¢predictionhunt.com
  12. 12Maryland Governor Election Winner — Odds & Probability | W.E.T.worldeventtrading.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 81 Good

Largest single print on GOVPARTYMD-26-D carried 35% of its $1,732 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 54d old)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score74Good

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 2% of the price to slippage.

Trust score81Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Large tradesTrade signals · medium confidence

Largest single print on GOVPARTYMD-26-D carried 35% of its $1,732 tape (window is 100% of 24h flow; print is 54d old)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
77Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

Dan Cox62
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 87% vs realized 4%
Wes Moore79
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

2 contracts · worst first

Wes Moore—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Dan Cox—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Wes Moore100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Dan Cox100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
74Good

Order book supports trading

Deep and tight enough to trade efficiently.

Outcome quality 77 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.0c slippage (~1% of a 96.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.0c slippage (~1% of a 96.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 1.9c slippage (~2% of a 96.5c contract)

Wes Moore79Market scoreLiquidity79Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 79
Liquidity
79 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Dan Cox62Market scoreLiquidity62Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 62
Liquidity
62 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 87% vs realized 4%
Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What potential impact could the October 6, 2026, gubernatorial debate have on Wes Moore's polling lead over Dan Cox?

Wes Moore Polling Lead58% to Dan Cox's 31% (27-point difference) [1][2][3]
Wes Moore Cash on Hand$6.4M (compared to Cox's $136k) [1][4]
Wes Moore Win ProbabilityExceeding 99% [2][5][6]
The October 6, 2026 gubernatorial debate's impact remains uncertain. Conflicting reports exist regarding the scheduling of a gubernatorial debate for October 6, 2026. While one source indicates a debate is scheduled for that date, hosted by WBAL-TV 11 and Maryland Public Television, public records or election forecasts do not yet indicate such an event [1][2][5]. If a debate were to occur, political analysts believe it would be a critical moment for Republican challenger Dan Cox to distinguish himself from past political affiliations [1][4].
Governor Moore holds substantial advantages, bolstering his strong lead. Incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore possesses significant advantages, including his incumbency, a robust fundraising capacity with $6.4 million cash on hand (compared to Cox's $136,000), and Maryland's substantial 2-to-1 Democratic voter registration edge [1][4]. As of August 2026, Moore maintains a strong polling lead, with surveys showing him at 58% support against Cox's 31%, representing a 27-point difference [1][2][3].
Prediction markets strongly favor Wes Moore winning reelection. Prediction markets overwhelmingly project Wes Moore to win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election, reflecting his structural advantages and the current polling gap [4]. Decision Desk HQ assigns Governor Moore a win probability exceeding 99%, categorizing the race as 'Safe Democratic' due to his substantial polling lead and incumbency advantage [2][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Wes Moore, Dan Cox set for Maryland governor debate - WBAL-TVwbaltv.com
  2. 22026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  4. 4Will a Democrat Win the Maryland Governor Election?lines.com
  5. 52026 Maryland Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Maryland Governor Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

6. What do the latest polling averages and fundraising reports from Q3 2026 show about Wes Moore's projected lead?

Projected Win ProbabilityGreater than 99% (September 2026) [1][2]
Projected Vote MarginD+38 (September 2026) [1][2]
Latest Poll Lead27 points (58% to 31%) (July-August 2026) [1][3][2][4]
Governor Wes Moore holds a strong lead in his re-election bid for the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election. As of September 2026, he is projected to have a win probability greater than 99%, with an anticipated vote margin of D+38 [1][2]. Recent polling conducted from late July to early August 2026 indicates Governor Moore leads Republican challenger Dan Cox by 27 points, holding 58% of the vote compared to Cox's 31% [1][3][2][4]. Prediction markets in August 2026 consistently place Moore's victory odds between 93-97% [5], reinforcing the consensus that the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial race is categorized as "Safe Democratic" by election forecasts and prediction markets [1][2][6].
Moore maintains a significant fundraising advantage over his opponent. While specific Q3 2026 fundraising totals for Moore's campaign were not summarized in the provided documents [7][8][9][10], Governor Moore is reported to maintain a substantial fundraising advantage over Dan Cox [11][4]. This financial lead further reinforces his position as the favored candidate to win re-election as of August 2026.
Sources (11)
  1. 12026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 3Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  4. 4Poll: Moore enjoys comfortable early lead against Cox in governor's...marylandmatters.org
  5. 5Governor Election Odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  6. 62026 Maryland Governor Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7FEC FORM 3docquery.fec.gov
  8. 8REPORT OF RECEIPTSdocquery.fec.gov
  9. 9FEC FORM 3docquery.fec.gov
  10. 10FEC FORM 3docquery.fec.gov
  11. 112026 Maryland gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org

7. How do Wes Moore and Dan Cox compare on their proposed solutions for Maryland's economy and public safety?

Moore's Economic StanceHighlights job growth and legislative initiatives (Moore's campaign) [1][2][3]
Cox's Economic StanceEmphasizes tax cuts and criticizes Moore's economic record (Cox's campaign) [1][2][3]
Moore's Public Safety PriorityAddressing violent crime through targeted initiatives (Moore's platform) [4][5][6]
Wes Moore and Dan Cox propose differing economic strategies for Maryland. Governor Moore's administration highlights its economic performance, citing significant job growth and various legislative initiatives [1][2][3]. His 2022 campaign platform focused on boosting equity and expanding economic opportunities through skill training and fair wages [7]. Conversely, Dan Cox advocates for tax cuts, reduced government spending, and prohibiting mandates, alongside criticism of Governor Moore's economic record [1][2][3][7].
Public safety approaches also diverge significantly between Moore and Cox. Governor Moore's platform focuses on combating violent crime through specific initiatives and collaborations with communities, building on his 2022 campaign objectives for public safety and criminal justice reform [4][5][6][7]. In contrast, Dan Cox's platform prioritizes restoring law and order, coupled with criticism of the current administration's safety record [4][5][6]. His 2022 campaign championed "backing the blue" as a strategy to combat crime [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Maryland GOP leaders: Cox must address voter concerns, Moore's...baltimoresun.com
  2. 2Dan Cox pitches affordability, tax cuts in bid to unseat Gov. Wes Mooreyoutube.com
  3. 3Poll: Moore enjoys comfortable early lead against Cox in governor's...marylandmatters.org
  4. 4Maryland gubernatorial candidates Cox, Moore debate key issueswbaltv.com
  5. 5The Office of Governor Wes Moore - Maryland.govgovernor.maryland.gov
  6. 6Meet Wes - Wes Moore for Marylandwesmoore.com
  7. 7Maryland gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8Heart of the Primaries 2022, Republicans-Issue 32 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org

8. Which polling organizations are tracking the 2026 Maryland governor's race, and what are their historical accuracy ratings?

Most recent poll dateJuly 27 - August 3, 2026 [1][2]
Poll sample size800 likely voters [1][2]
DDHQ forecast model97% fundamentals, 3% polling data [3]
Limited information exists on specific polling organizations for the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial race. Available research does not explicitly name particular polling organizations tracking the race or provide their historical accuracy ratings [1][2]. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) cites one recent poll, conducted from July 27 to August 3, 2026, which surveyed 800 likely voters [1][2]. However, the specific organization responsible for conducting this data is not identified [1][2].
Decision Desk HQ's forecast model primarily relies on fundamentals, not polling. DDHQ's forecast model for the race incorporates 3% polling data, alongside 97% fundamentals, to generate its projections [3]. Additionally, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are listed on DDHQ's platform as tracking the race [1][2]. It is important to note that these prediction markets operate distinctly from traditional polling organizations [1][2].
Sources (3)
  1. 12026 Maryland Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 Maryland Governor Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

9. What is the strategic path to an upset victory for Dan Cox in the final weeks of the 2026 election?

Cox Win Probability (Prediction Markets)3% to 7% (as of September 9, 2026) [1][2]
Moore Polling Lead27 points (58% to 31%) (August 2026) [2]
Moore Win Probability (Decision Desk HQ)>99% [3][4][5]
Republican Dan Cox faces a significant uphill battle against Governor Wes Moore. As of September 9, 2026, Republican nominee Dan Cox trails incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore by a substantial margin for the November 3, 2026, general election. Prediction markets indicate a low probability for Cox to win, ranging from approximately 3% to 7% [1][2]. Polling data from August 2026 shows Governor Moore with a considerable 27-point lead over Cox, 58% to 31% [2]. This strong position is further supported by Governor Moore's 56% job approval rating and positive economic indicators within Maryland, including job growth and reduced crime rates [2].
Decision Desk HQ projects an almost certain victory for the incumbent. Their forecast assigns incumbent Democrat Wes Moore a greater than 99% probability of winning, categorizing the Maryland gubernatorial race as "Safe Democratic" with a projected 38-percentage-point margin in favor of the incumbent [3][4][5]. The methodology underpinning this forecast primarily relies on structural fundamentals, accounting for 97% of the projection, with only a minimal 3% attributed to current polling data [3][4][5].
An upset victory for Cox would require extraordinary and unforeseen circumstances. A strategic path for Cox to overcome the current deficit and achieve an upset would necessitate a combination of unlikely factors. These include a major scandal directly affecting Governor Moore, a significant and sustained economic downturn specifically within Maryland, or the emergence of a major national 'red wave' political environment [6][2]. Additionally, an upset could potentially arise from a profound shift in the political landscape that mobilizes crossover voters, possibly leveraging the recent endorsement from former Governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. [6][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Maryland Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  2. 22026 Maryland Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  3. 32026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Will a Democrat Win the Maryland Governor Election?lines.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Maryland gubernatorial general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features a rematch between incumbent Democratic Governor Wes Moore and Republican challenger Dan Cox [1]. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets and polling data strongly favor Governor Moore's re-election, with market probabilities for a Democratic victory consistently exceeding 96% [2][1][3][4][5]. Recent polling from August 2026 indicates Governor Moore holds an aggregate lead with 58% support compared to 31% for Dan Cox, mirroring his decisive victory in the 2022 election [6][2][1]. Decision Desk HQ projects Governor Moore to win re-election with a probability currently greater than 99% [7][8].
Key catalysts that could impact these probabilities include the gubernatorial debate scheduled for October 6, 2026, hosted by Maryland Public Television [1]. Following this, early voting for the general election is set to occur from October 22, 2026, to October 29, 2026 [9]. The election itself is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1What's at stake in MD elections? Notable races, ballot questionsthedailyrecord.com
  2. 2Poll: Moore enjoys comfortable early lead against Cox in governor's rematch - Maryland Mattersmarylandmatters.org
  3. 3Maryland Governor Election Winner - Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 42026 Maryland Governor Markets | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Maryland Governor winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
  6. 6Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  7. 72026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Maryland Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 Gubernatorial Election - Maryland State Board of Electionselections.maryland.gov