Short Answer

Marsha Blackburn is highly likely to win the Tennessee Governor race in 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 98.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which prices the probability of a Democrat winning the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election, has consistently assigned a very low chance to that outcome. The contract has traded in a narrow band between 2.0% and 5.9%, reflecting a stable consensus. No specific news event or candidate declaration corresponds with the market's moves. The primary driver appears to be the state's baseline political alignment, which heavily favors the Republican party.
The fact that incumbent Governor Bill Lee is term-limited creates an open-seat election, a dynamic that can sometimes increase electoral uncertainty. In this case, however, the market has not priced in any significant shift in the partisan outlook. The probability has remained below 6% since inception. The trading volume of 5,799 contracts, spread across a long period with minimal price volatility, suggests a lack of new information or events capable of altering the market's initial assessment.
  • Since last update (~28d): Marsha Blackburn's model probability rose by +1.9pp, a model-led move, compressing the edge.
  • Jerri Green’s market probability decreased by -2.1pp, while the model dropped -1.9pp.
  • Our confidence score significantly increased by +4.0pp, reflecting higher certainty in the analysis.
  • Republican party win appears highly probable; Blackburn leads polling by 21 points. Marsha Blackburn holds a significant $10.7 million fundraising advantage. * A Democratic victory requires a major national wave or late-cycle scandal.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Jerri Green 4.8% 4.7% Jerri Green consistently trails in early September 2026 polling and faces a substantial fundraising disadvantage.
Marsha Blackburn 98.0% 95.3% Marsha Blackburn maintains a substantial lead in early September 2026 polling and a significant fundraising advantage.

Current Context

The Tennessee gubernatorial general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. Current Governor Bill Lee is ineligible to seek re-election due to the state's two-term limit [3][4][5][6]. U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn secured the Republican nomination after winning the primary election on August 6, 2026 [7][8]. Memphis City Councilmember Jerri Green won the Democratic nomination [7][9]. Both will appear on the general election ballot alongside thirteen independent candidates [7][9]. There is no current winner as the election has not yet taken place [1].
Polling and forecasts indicate a strong lead for the Republican nominee. As of early September 2026, polling from the Beacon Center shows Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn leading Democrat Jerri Green by 21 percentage points among likely voters, with 55% to Green's 34% [10][11][12]. Decision Desk HQ's forecast, as of September 1, 2026, projects Marsha Blackburn to win the general election with a 95% probability [13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Governor | Voter Guide: 2026 Midterm General Election • Tennessee Lookouttennesseelookout.com
  2. 2Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Bill Lee (Tennessee) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Tennessee 2026 General Electionthegreenpapers.com
  5. 5Does Tennessee Have Term Limits on Their Governor?termlimits.com
  6. 6Who's running for Tennessee governor? Get to know the candidates on the primary ballotchattanoogacw.com
  7. 72026 Tennessee Governor's Race Tracker | Tennessee Fireflytnfirefly.com
  8. 8Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2026 (August 6 Republican...ballotpedia.org
  9. 92026 Tennessee Governor Candidates | Tennessee Fireflytnfirefly.com
  10. 10August 2026 Beacon Poll Resultsbeacontn.org
  11. 11New Tennessee poll shows Blackburn with big lead, Trump's approval underwaternewschannel9.com
  12. 12New Poll: Blackburn Leads Green by 21 Points - State Affairs Propro.stateaffairs.com
  13. 132026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This prediction market contract concerns whether Marsha Blackburn, representing the Republican party, will win the Tennessee Governor election. A 'YES' resolution occurs if she is officially declared the winner; otherwise, it resolves 'NO', with the winning party determining the final outcome. The market event is indicated around November 3, 8:00 AM EST, and the maximum payout date is November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Marsha Blackburn $0.98 $0.05 98%
Jerri Green $0.05 $0.97 5%

Market Discussion

The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (Republican) and Memphis City Councilwoman Jerri Green (Democrat) confirmed as their respective party nominees following the primary held on August 6, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5]. Prediction markets and political forecasting models show a strong consensus, with probabilities typically ranging from 95% to 97% favoring a Republican victory in the November general election [6][7][8][9]. As of September 1, 2026, Decision Desk HQ forecasts Marsha Blackburn as having a 95% probability of winning the general election [10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1Sen. Marsha Blackburn wins the Republican primary for governor of Tennesseenbcnews.com
  2. 2Marsha Blackburn wins GOP nomination for Tennessee governorusatoday.com
  3. 3Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 Tennessee Governor Live Election Results | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Tennessee Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Will a Republican Win the Tennessee Governor's Race?lines.com
  7. 7Tennessee — Governor — 2026 forecast — Akashicakashic.app
  8. 8Tennessee Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 9Tennessee Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  10. 102026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 77 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score51Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
64Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

2 contracts · worst first

Jerri Green62
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 28% vs realized 2%
Marsha Blackburn64
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 1% vs realized 0%
Move quality
65Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first

Marsha Blackburn65
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Jerri Green—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Marsha Blackburn100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jerri Green100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
51Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 64 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.7c slippage (~13% of a 5.3c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Marsha Blackburn64Market scoreLiquidity64Move quality65Rule clarity100
Why 64
Liquidity
64 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 1% vs realized 0%
Move quality
65 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Jerri Green62Market scoreLiquidity62Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 62
Liquidity
62 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 28% vs realized 2%
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What does recent polling and forecasting data from sources like the Beacon Center and Decision Desk HQ indicate about Marsha Blackburn's lead?

Current Poll Lead (Beacon Center)21 percentage points (55% to 34%) [1][2][3]
Probability of Winning (Decision Desk HQ)95% [4][5][6]
Projected Margin (Decision Desk HQ)R+22 [4][5][6]
Recent data indicates Marsha Blackburn holds a significant lead. In the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election, a Beacon Center poll conducted on September 3, 2026, shows Marsha Blackburn leading Democratic nominee Jerri Green by 21 percentage points, with 55% support compared to Green's 34% [1][2][3]. This lead is further supported by Decision Desk HQ's forecast, which, as of early September 2026, projects Marsha Blackburn as the winner with a 95% probability [4][5][6].
Forecasting models reinforce Blackburn's substantial projected lead. Decision Desk HQ further projects a substantial margin of R+22 for Marsha Blackburn, based on models that utilize 100% fundamentals [4][5][6]. Earlier polling data from April 2026 similarly indicated Blackburn's strong position, showing her leading Green by a 24-point margin, with 51% to Green's 27% [7][8]. Marsha Blackburn secured the Republican nomination for Tennessee Governor on August 6, 2026, marking her as the first woman to achieve this for the GOP in the state [9].
The broader political landscape favors a Republican victory. Prediction markets and various political forecasting outlets consistently rate the Tennessee gubernatorial election as either 'Safe Republican' or 'Solid Republican' [10][11]. This categorization reflects the deep partisan lean of the state, consistently indicating a strong advantage for the Republican candidate.
Sources (11)
  1. 1August 2026 Beacon Poll Resultsbeacontn.org
  2. 2New Tennessee poll shows Blackburn with big lead, Trump's approval underwaternewschannel9.com
  3. 3New Poll: Blackburn Leads Green by 21 Points - State Affairs Propro.stateaffairs.com
  4. 42026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  8. 8Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  9. 9Blackburn advances to general election, first woman to win party...tennesseelookout.com
  10. 102026 Tennessee Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  11. 11Will a Republican Win the Tennessee Governor’s Race? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com

6. How do the fundraising totals and campaign finances of Marsha Blackburn and Jerri Green compare heading into the final months of the 2026 election?

Marsha Blackburn Campaign Funds Raised$10,735,910 (2026 campaign finance filings) [1]
Jerri Green Campaign Funds Raised$849,586 (2026 campaign finance filings) [1]
Team Tennessee PAC Funds Raised$3.52 million (to support Marsha Blackburn) [1]
Marsha Blackburn significantly outraised Jerri Green in campaign finances. As of the most recent 2026 campaign finance filings, Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn has raised $10,735,910 and has $2,691,224 cash on hand. This fundraising total is significantly more than that of Democratic nominee Jerri Green, who has raised $849,586 and possesses $118,002 cash on hand. Additionally, a separate political action committee, Team Tennessee PAC, has reportedly raised $3.52 million to support Marsha Blackburn’s campaign [1].
Campaign data shows discrepancies about the specific 2026 election and candidates. There are notable inconsistencies regarding Marsha Blackburn's potential gubernatorial run. Financial data from the FEC for 'Marsha for Senate' covers Senate campaign activity, and no specific campaign finance filings are clearly identified for a Tennessee gubernatorial run for Marsha Blackburn, who was designated as a Senate candidate for the 2030 cycle [2]. Furthermore, Ballotpedia's list of candidates for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election does not include either Marsha Blackburn or Jerri Green, indicating potential discrepancies in real-time or source-provided data regarding active candidates in this specific election [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Campaign Finance | 2026 TN Governor Race - Tennessee Fireflytnfirefly.com
  2. 2MARSHA FOR SENATE - committee overview | FECfec.gov
  3. 3Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

7. What are the key debates and campaign events between September and November 2026 that could shift momentum in the race?

Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2]
Projected OutcomeSafe Republican (Decision Desk HQ) [3][4]
Debate StatusUnder discussion between Sept-Nov 2026 [5]
Debates are a central campaign point in the Tennessee gubernatorial race. The general election for Tennessee governor is scheduled for November 3, 2026, featuring Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn, Democratic nominee Jerri Green, and various independent candidates [1][2][6]. A primary area of political discussion between September and November 2026 centers on the scheduling of debates. Democratic candidate Jerri Green has publicly pressed Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn to participate, although formal debate details were still under discussion as of early September 2026 [5]. No other specific campaign events that could significantly alter the race's momentum between September and November 2026 were specified in the available information [5].
The Tennessee gubernatorial race heavily favors the Republican party. The electoral landscape for the contest is strongly Republican-leaning, consistent with Tennessee's history as a consistently Republican state [7][8][9]. Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecasts the race as "Safe Republican," predicting a substantial margin of victory for Marsha Blackburn [3][4]. While some prediction markets had indicated a high probability, ranging from 90% to 97%, of a Republican win [7][8][9], Decision Desk HQ's reporting shows that no recognized prediction markets are currently available for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial race [10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 22026 Tennessee gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 32026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5When will Tennessee governor debates be held? - Facebookfacebook.com
  6. 6Dean Brewer - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Tennessee Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 8https://polymarket.com/event/tennessee-governor-winner-2026/will-the-democrats-win-the-tennessee-governor-race-in-2026?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  9. 9Will a Republican Win the Tennessee Governor’s Race? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  10. 102026 Tennessee Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  11. 112026 Tennessee Governor Vote History | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

8. What is Jerri Green's potential path to victory, and which voter demographics must she mobilize to overcome Blackburn's projected lead?

Democratic Primary Vote ShareJerri Green 69.0% (August 6, 2026) [1]
General Election Poll (April 2026)Marsha Blackburn 51%, Jerri Green 27% [2]
Decision Desk HQ Win ProbabilityMarsha Blackburn 95% [3]
Jerri Green faces an extremely challenging path to victory in Tennessee. After securing the Democratic nomination for the 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election on August 6, 2026, with 69.0% of the primary vote [1], Green must contend with Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn's significant projected lead. Prediction markets currently estimate an 89% to 97% probability of Blackburn winning the general election [4][5]. Polling data has consistently shown Blackburn with a substantial advantage, leading Green 49% to 28% in 2025 [4], and further expanding her lead to 51% compared to Green's 27% by April 2026, with 22% of voters undecided [2]. Decision Desk HQ categorizes the Tennessee gubernatorial race as Safe Republican, forecasting a 95% win probability for Marsha Blackburn and a projected margin of R+22 [3][6].
Overcoming the lead requires a significant political shift or external event. Analysts suggest that a Democratic victory in Tennessee would likely depend on a substantial national wave, considerable crossover voter appeal, or a major late-cycle scandal affecting the Republican candidate [4]. Jerri Green's campaign platform is centered on key issues such as supporting working families, fully funding public schools, expanding healthcare access, and protecting fundamental freedoms [7][8]. Her specific policy proposals include ending private prison contracts, maintaining the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) as a public entity, and halting cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) [7][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Blackburn vs. Green: Tennessee Governor Race Polls 2026tnfirefly.com
  2. 2Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  3. 32026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Will a Republican Win the Tennessee Governor’s Race? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  5. 52026 Tennessee Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  6. 62026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Jerri Green for Governor of Tennesseegreenforgovernor.com
  8. 8Meet Jerri Green | Democrat for Tennessee Governorgreenforgovernor.com
  9. 9Jerri Green's Platform for Tennessee | Policy Agendagreenforgovernor.com

9. How do Marsha Blackburn's and Jerri Green's policy platforms compare on key issues for Tennessee voters, such as the economy and education?

Jerri Green's Economic FocusSupporting working families with paid family leave and affordable child care [1][2][3]
Jerri Green's Education StanceFully funding public schools [1][2][3]
Marsha Blackburn's General PlatformSecuring borders, deporting undocumented immigrants, protecting American farmland, upholding 'Christian Conservative' values, and supporting an 'America First' agenda [4][5][6]
Jerri Green presents more specific proposals on economic and education issues. Information regarding specific policy platforms on the economy and education for both Marsha Blackburn and Jerri Green is limited in the retrieved sources [7]. However, Green's broader platform details specific proposals related to education funding and family economic support [1][2][3]. Green prioritizes supporting working families through initiatives such as paid family leave and affordable child care. On education, she advocates for fully funding public schools, and her broader platform also includes expanding healthcare access, specifically Medicaid, and protecting fundamental freedoms [1][2][3].
Marsha Blackburn's platform emphasizes conservative priorities without specific policy details. In contrast, Marsha Blackburn's platform emphasizes conservative priorities, including securing borders, deporting undocumented immigrants, protecting American farmland from Chinese ownership, upholding 'Christian Conservative' values, and supporting an 'America First' agenda [4][5][6]. While these priorities may have economic implications, the available information does not detail specific economic or educational policy platforms from Blackburn as explicitly as it does for Green [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Jerri Green for Governor of Tennesseegreenforgovernor.com
  2. 2Meet Jerri Green | Democrat for Tennessee Governorgreenforgovernor.com
  3. 3Jerri Green: 2026 TN Governor Race | Tennessee Fireflytnfirefly.com
  4. 4Gubernatorial Candidate Jerri Green | Season 17 | Episode 6 - PBSpbs.org
  5. 5Marsha Blackburn, Jerri Green win gubernatorial primariesnashvillebanner.com
  6. 6Marsha Blackburn for Governormarshablackburn.com
  7. 7Tennessee gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Tennessee gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, following primary elections held on August 6, 2026 [1][2]. Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat Jerri Green are the major party nominees [1][2]. Incumbent Governor Bill Lee (R) is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term [3][2].
Republican nominee Marsha Blackburn is the favored candidate. Polling in September 2026 showed Blackburn leading Green 55% to 34% [4][5], with prediction markets assigning approximately 97% odds of victory [1][2]. Decision Desk HQ forecasts rate the race as Safe Republican [6][7]. This strong position reflects the state's Republican partisan voting index and historical success of GOP candidates in statewide races [8]. Bearish catalysts for Blackburn include potential scandals, unexpected shifts in national political conditions, or unusually depressed Republican turnout [8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (8)
  1. 12026 Tennessee Governor's Race Tracker | Tennessee Fireflytnfirefly.com
  2. 22026 Tennessee gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Bill Lee (Tennessee) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4New Tennessee poll shows Blackburn with big lead, Trump's approval underwaternewschannel9.com
  5. 5August 2026 Beacon Poll Resultsbeacontn.org
  6. 62026 Tennessee Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  8. 8Tennessee Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com