Short Answer

Democratic Hannah Pingree is expected to win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial general election, maintaining a significant lead in polls with a 52% to 39% advantage over Republican Bobby Charles, priced at 92.4% by the market.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market's stability, rather than any single move, is its defining feature. The contract has traded in a narrow range between 91% and 96% since inception, reflecting a strong and durable consensus that the Democratic candidate will win the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. This high baseline probability was established with the confirmation of the general election candidates: Democrat Hannah Pingree, Republican Bobby Charles, and Independent Richard Bennett. The market has not repriced this fundamental assessment.
The minor price fluctuations observed are not attributable to any specific news in the provided information. With total volume at just 327 contracts, these small drifts are consistent with price discovery in a thinly traded market. The core market view—a greater than 90% probability of a Democratic victory—has held firm.
  • Since last update (~28d): Hannah Pingree's market probability dropped (-2.1pp), significantly widening our edge to 3.5pp.
  • Our model increased Pingree's probability (+0.9pp), reflecting a strong +3.0pp confidence boost.
  • Robert Charles's probability decreased by our model (-0.9pp), despite a slight market increase.
  • Democrat Hannah Pingree leads polls by 13 points, with a substantial fundraising advantage.
  • Republican Bobby Charles consistently trails Pingree by double-digits, facing a significant fundraising deficit.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Hannah Pingree 92.4% 95.9% Democrat Hannah Pingree maintains a significant lead in polls and a substantial fundraising advantage.
Robert Charles 4.1% 3.1% Robert Charles significantly trails in current polls, faces a fundraising deficit, and has generated controversies.
Rick Bennett 1.0% 1.0% Independent Rick Bennett receives consistent polling support, but remains significantly behind the leading candidate.

Current Context

Maine's 2026 gubernatorial election features three main candidates. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, to elect a successor to term-limited incumbent Governor Janet Mills [1][2][3]. The candidates are Democrat Hannah Pingree, Republican Bobby Charles, and Independent Richard Bennett, among others [1][4][5][3][6]. Both Hannah Pingree and Bobby Charles won their respective Democratic and Republican primaries on June 9, 2026 [6][7].
Polls and models currently favor Democrat Hannah Pingree to win. As of September 9, 2026, Hannah Pingree leads the field in public polling [8]. A recent CNN poll indicates Pingree holds a 52% to 39% lead over Republican Bobby Charles [9][10]. Predictive models from Decision Desk HQ, as of September 9, 2026, forecast an 86% probability of Hannah Pingree winning the election [11][12].
Campaign developments reveal contrasting candidate strategies and controversies. Hannah Pingree has released her first general election television advertisement and has significantly out-raised her opponents [8][10]. Republican Bobby Charles has generated controversy by advocating for federal agents at polling places [13]. Charles also received a public rebuke from his own sister, who stated she will vote for Hannah Pingree [14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Pingree and Charles advance to Maine governor's race in November | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 22026 Maine gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Maine gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Here’s where Maine’s candidates for governor stand on key issuescentralmaine.com
  5. 5We're through the primaries. Here's how things are shaping up for November | Maine Publicmainepublic.org
  6. 6Hannah Pingree - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  7. 7Maine gubernatorial election, 2026 (June 9 Democratic primary)ballotpedia.org
  8. 8Hannah Pingree releases first campaign ad of Maine gubernatorial general election • Maine Morning Starmainemorningstar.com
  9. 9Maine and Michigan Senate races are neck and neck, CNN polls find | CNN Politicscnn.com
  10. 10Hannah Pingree releases first campaign ad of Maine gubernatorial general election | News From The Statesnewsfromthestates.com
  11. 112026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  12. 122026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  13. 13GOP nominee for Maine governor calls for ICE agents at state polling placesnbcnews.com
  14. 14Bobby Charles’ sister says she will vote for Hannah Pingree for Maine governorsunjournal.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market resolves based on the winning party of the Maine Governor election. A "Yes" contract for a specific candidate resolves positively if that candidate wins the election, while a "No" contract resolves positively if they do not win. The market begins trading on November 3, 8:00 am EST, and the maximum payout date is November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Hannah Pingree $0.95 $0.08 92%
Robert Charles $0.10 $0.96 4%
Rick Bennett $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

The 2026 Maine gubernatorial election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, will determine the successor to current Governor Janet Mills, who is term-limited and ineligible for a third consecutive term [1]. Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree and Republican nominee Bobby Charles are the primary contenders, along with independent candidate Rick Bennett [2]. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets and forecasts from sources like Decision Desk HQ consistently show Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree as the strong favorite, with implied probabilities often ranging from 86% to 95% [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Upcoming Elections | SOSwww1.maine.gov
  2. 22026 Maine gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3https://polymarket.com/event/maine-governor-winner-2026/will-the-democrats-win-the-maine-governor-race-in-2026polymarket.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 80 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score68Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses about 3% of the price to slippage.

Trust score80Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
81Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
68Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

3 contracts · worst first

Robert Charles12
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 111% vs realized 18%
Hannah Pingree74
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Rick Bennett—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

3 contracts · worst first

Hannah Pingree—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Robert Charles—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rick Bennett—
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first

Hannah Pingree100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Robert Charles100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Rick Bennett100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
68Caution

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 71 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.2c slippage (~1% of a 94.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.3c slippage (~1% of a 94.5c contract)

$10,000 order: 2.6c slippage (~3% of a 94.5c contract)

Hannah Pingree74Market scoreLiquidity74Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 74
Liquidity
74 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Robert Charles12Market scoreLiquidity12Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 12
Liquidity
12 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 111% vs realized 18%
Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Rick Bennett–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 2d

No trades in the last 2d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 26, 2026

5. What do the latest polls from sources like CNN and forecast models from Decision Desk HQ indicate about Hannah Pingree's lead over Robert Charles?

Polling Lead AverageApproximately 13 points [1][2][3][4]
Prediction Market ProbabilityHannah Pingree 96% [3][4]
Decision Desk HQ ProbabilityHannah Pingree 86% (as of Sept 1, 2026) [5][6]
Hannah Pingree maintains a significant lead in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial race. Recent polling averages show her ahead of Robert Charles by approximately 13 points [1][2][3][4]. Prediction markets heavily favor Pingree, indicating around a 96% probability of her victory [3][4].
Recent individual polls reinforce Pingree's significant advantage in the race. An August 6-10 UNH Survey Center poll, for example, found Pingree with an 11-point lead (49% to 38%), while a July 15-20 poll reported a 14-point lead [5][7][8][6]. As of September 1, 2026, the Decision Desk HQ forecast gives Democrat Hannah Pingree an 86% probability of winning the Maine gubernatorial election against Republican Bobby Charles. This forecast projects a Democratic margin of 15 points, classifying the race as Likely Democratic [5][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Poll of Maine governor's race gives Hannah Pingree comfortable...mainepublic.org
  2. 2Poll shows Pingree with lead in Maine governor's race - WABIwabi.tv
  3. 32026 Maine Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 4Hannah Pingree: 2026 Maine Governor Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  5. 52026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  8. 8Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org

6. How does the campaign fundraising and cash on hand for Hannah Pingree compare to that of Robert Charles heading into the final months of the 2026 campaign?

Hannah Pingree FundraisingOver $3 million (as of July 14, 2026) [1]
Bobby Charles Fundraising$1.3 million (as of July 14, 2026) [1]
Hannah Pingree Cash on Hand$850,000 (as of July 14, 2026) [1]
Hannah Pingree holds a significant financial advantage over Robert Charles. As of July 14, 2026, Democrat Hannah Pingree had raised more than $3 million for her campaign, a sum significantly higher than the $1.3 million raised by her Republican opponent, Robert Charles [1]. Pingree also reported a substantial lead in cash on hand, with $850,000 compared to Charles' $180,000 for the identical period [1]. These financial figures indicate a considerable monetary advantage for Pingree as the 2026 campaign nears its conclusion [1].
Polling and market data consistently favor Pingree in the upcoming election. As of September 9, 2026, comprehensive public reporting for 2026 Maine gubernatorial candidates' comparative campaign fundraising and cash-on-hand totals is not yet consolidated in expert databases [2]. Despite this, recent polling data from August and June 2026 consistently shows Hannah Pingree ahead of Robert Charles by significant margins [3]. Decision Desk HQ further projects an 86% win probability for Pingree as of late August 2026, with Charles at 14% [3]. Prediction markets also strongly indicate Pingree's likely victory, showing implied probabilities ranging from 94% to 97% as of September 9, 2026 [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Hannah Pingree dominates fundraising in Maine governor's racepressherald.com
  2. 2Hannah Pingree - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 32026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Maine Governor Election Winner - Polymarket USpolymarket.us

7. What is the potential impact of independent candidate Rick Bennett on the vote share for Hannah Pingree and Robert Charles in the general election?

Rick Bennett August 2026 Polling7.7% [1][2]
Hannah Pingree August 2026 Polling51.2% [1][2]
Hannah Pingree Prediction Market Odds96% [1][2]
Independent candidate Rick Bennett consistently polls between 6% and 9% in the gubernatorial race. Rick Bennett, a former state senator and GOP chair, is running as an independent in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. Recent polling from August 2026 shows him with approximately 7.7% support, and he has consistently polled between 6% and 9% in mid-2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Analysts suggest that Bennett's independent candidacy could act as a spoiler, a dynamic observed in previous multi-candidate Maine elections [7][8].
Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree holds a significant lead despite Bennett's candidacy. Despite Bennett's consistent polling, Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree maintains a substantial advantage. August 2026 polling indicates Pingree has approximately 51.2% support, compared to Republican Bobby Charles' 38.2% [1][2]. Prediction markets heavily favor Pingree, giving her a 96% chance of winning the election [1][2]. Furthermore, Decision Desk HQ forecasts an 86% probability of victory for Pingree as of early September 2026 [4][5], suggesting her lead is substantial enough to potentially withstand any spoiler effects.
Sources (8)
  1. 12026 Maine Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  2. 2Hannah Pingree: 2026 Maine Governor Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  3. 3Maine gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 6Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  7. 7Independent qualifies for ballot, setting up 3-way race for Maine...mainepublic.org
  8. 8Independent Rick Bennett qualifies for November election for governormainemorningstar.com

8. What do historical voting patterns in Maine's key counties from the 2018 and 2022 elections suggest for the 2026 electoral map?

Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2]
Democratic Victory Probability95-96% [3][4][5]
Hannah Pingree Polling Supportapproximately 49% (August 2026) [6][7][8]
Maine's electoral map consistently shows distinct regional voting tendencies, as observed in the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections [9][10][11][12][13]. Democratic candidates historically receive strong support in urban and coastal areas, particularly in populous southern counties like Cumberland, Knox, Sagadahoc, and York. Cumberland County, in particular, contributes significantly to statewide Democratic margins [9][10][11][12][13]. Conversely, Republican candidates typically perform well in the rural, northern, and inland regions, including Aroostook, Piscataquis, Somerset, and Washington counties [9][10][11][12][13].
The 2026 gubernatorial election will feature new major party candidates. Scheduled for November 3, 2026, the ballot will include Democratic nominee Hannah Pingree, Republican nominee Bobby Charles, and independent candidate Rick Bennett [1][2]. Current Democratic Governor Janet Mills is term-limited and therefore ineligible to seek re-election [1].
Forecasts strongly indicate a likely Democratic victory in 2026. Political forecasting models and prediction markets heavily favor a Democratic win, assigning a 95-96% probability [3][4][5]. Hannah Pingree is projected as the likely victor, with an 86% probability of success as of August 31, 2026, according to Decision Desk HQ [3][4][5]. Furthermore, polling conducted in August 2026 indicates Pingree leading with approximately 49% support [6][7][8].
Sources (13)
  1. 12026 Maine gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Maine gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Will a Democrat Win the Maine Governor's Race?lines.com
  4. 4Governor Markets | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  5. 52026 Maine Elections, Odds & Candidates - Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  6. 62026 Polls: Maine Governor - 270toWin.com270towin.com
  7. 72026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 9Maine Governor Election Results 2022: Mills Defeats LePagenytimes.com
  10. 10Maine gubernatorial election, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 112022 Maine gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  12. 122018 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Maineuselectionatlas.org
  13. 132022 Gubernatorial General Election Results - Maineuselectionatlas.org

9. How do the policy platforms of Hannah Pingree and Robert Charles compare on key Maine issues like the economy, healthcare, and environmental policy?

Pingree Climate Goal100% clean power by 2040 [1][2]
Charles Energy StanceOpposes renewable energy subsidies, supports natural gas [1]
Pingree Healthcare ProposalPublic health insurance option [1][3][4]
Hannah Pingree and Robert Charles offer distinct policy approaches for Maine. Pingree's policy platform emphasizes affordability initiatives, a public health insurance option, and ambitious climate goals, including achieving 100% clean power by 2040 [1][3][4][5][2]. Robert Charles, in contrast, advocates for expanding natural gas infrastructure and opposing renewable energy subsidies, while criticizing current climate policies as economically harmful [1]. Their positions on environmental policy, in particular, present a sharp contrast [1].
Pingree details plans for economic relief and expanded healthcare access. Her economic strategy prioritizes affordability through investments in housing and childcare support [5]. For healthcare, she proposes a public health insurance option designed to reduce costs, increase access, and strengthen Maine communities [1][3][4]. Her environmental objectives include reaching 100% clean power by 2040 and expanding renewable energy infrastructure [1][2]. While Charles's platform clearly advocates for natural gas expansion and opposition to renewable energy subsidies, with criticisms of climate policies for their perceived economic harm [1], comprehensive details regarding his specific policy platforms on the economy and healthcare are limited in the available information [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bobby Charles accuses Hannah...mainepublic.org
  2. 2Your Vote 2026 profile: Hannah Pingree, Democrat for governormainepublic.org
  3. 3Health Care Plan for Maine - Hannah Pingree for Governorhannahforgovernor.com
  4. 4Hannah Pingree Releases Bold Plan to Lower Health Care Costs...hannahforgovernor.com
  5. 5Democratic gubernatorial candidate Hannah Pingree unveils...newscentermaine.com
  6. 62026 Maine Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 Maine gubernatorial race is an open-seat election, as incumbent Governor Janet Mills is term-limited [1]. The general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026 [2][3], features Democrat Hannah Pingree, Republican Bobby Charles, and independent Rick Bennett [1][4]. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets show strong favor for Democrat Hannah Pingree, with implied probabilities of victory consistently around 92–93% [2][5][6].
Bullish catalysts for Pingree include successful primary consolidation, a significant fundraising advantage with $3 million against Charles' $1.3 million, and positive public polling [5][7]. Pingree launched the first general election TV ad campaign on September 9, 2026 [2][5]. Potential bearish pressures for her opponents involve campaign missteps and lower Republican turnout trends [5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1Pingree and Charles advance to Maine governor's race in November | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2ME Governor 2026 | Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  3. 3Maine gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4We're through the primaries. Here's how things are shaping up for November | Maine Publicmainepublic.org
  5. 5Hannah Pingree releases first campaign ad of Maine gubernatorial general election • Maine Morning Starmainemorningstar.com
  6. 6Maine Governor Election Winner | Live Odds Comparisonpredictionhunt.com
  7. 7MEMO: State of the Maine Gubernatorial Race - DGAdemocraticgovernors.org