Short Answer

Greggory D. Hull is not expected to win the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election; prediction markets and election forecasters heavily favor Democratic nominee Deb Haaland, with Hull's victory priced at 9.3%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This contract prices the outcome of the 2026 open-seat gubernatorial election in New Mexico between Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull. The incumbent, Michelle Lujan Grisham, is term-limited.
The market probability for a Democratic victory increased from 7.5% to 9.3% between August 26 and September 9. The provided context does not contain a specific catalyst, such as polling data or a campaign event, to explain this shift. The repricing occurred more than two months after the June 2 primary elections finalized the matchup between Haaland and Hull.
Since this initial adjustment, the contract has traded sideways on low volume. The market appears to have established a baseline probability for the race in the absence of new information.
  • Since last update (~122d): Deb Haaland's model probability decreased by 4.1pp, while the market increased, flipping the edge.
  • Greggory Hull's model probability increased by 4.1pp, model-led, compressing the edge against the market.
  • The overall model-market edge flipped negative by 3.3pp, reducing confidence by 4.0pp.
  • Deb Haaland is heavily favored by prediction markets and election forecasters. New Mexico's inherent Democratic lean further supports Deb Haaland's strong position.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Greggory D. Hull 9.3% 9.0% Gregg Hull appears to be an underdog, with forecasters heavily favoring the Democratic nominee.
Deb Haaland 94.2% 91.0% Deb Haaland is heavily favored by prediction markets and election forecasters.

Current Context

The 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election is set for November 3, 2026. Incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is ineligible to seek a third consecutive term due to state term limits [1][2]. Following their primary victories on June 2, 2026, the major party nominees are Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull [3][4]. Haaland is the former U.S. Secretary of the Interior, and Hull previously served as mayor of Rio Rancho [1][5].
Recent polling and forecasts favor Deb Haaland for the governorship. An Albuquerque Journal poll conducted in late August 2026 showed Haaland leading Hull by 6 percentage points, with 49% to Hull's 43% [5][6][7]. As of early September 2026, election forecasting models from Decision Desk HQ assign Deb Haaland an 84% probability of victory, versus 16% for Gregg Hull [1][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 12026 New Mexico gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2NM Governor 2026 - Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  3. 3New Mexico gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Gregg Hull - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Journal Poll: Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull in New Mexico governor raceabqjournal.com
  6. 6Haaland leads Hull by 6 points in New Mexico governor’s race - KOATkoat.com
  7. 72026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 New Mexico Governor Markets | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market's contracts resolve based on the official winning party of the New Mexico Governor election. A "Yes" outcome for a specific candidate's contract triggers if that candidate's party officially wins the election; otherwise, it resolves "No." Trading for the market begins on November 3 at 8:00 AM EST, with the maximum payout date set for November 3, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Deb Haaland $0.96 $0.09 94%
Greggory D. Hull $0.10 $0.96 9%

Market Discussion

As of September 9, 2026, the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial general election, featuring Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull, has not occurred but is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1]. Prediction markets and predictive forecasts consistently favor Deb Haaland to win, assigning her probabilities typically between 90% and 95% [2]. Recent polling (August 2026) also shows Haaland leading Hull by approximately 6 percentage points [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Deb Haaland and Gregg Hull to face off for New Mexico governor | AP Newsapnews.com
  2. 2https://polymarket.com/event/new-mexico-governor-winner-2026polymarket.com
  3. 32026 New Mexico Governor Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

“Greggory D. Hull” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score80Good
Trade quality20% of score55Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
72Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Thin-volume movesTrade signals · high confidence

“Greggory D. Hull” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
56Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

2 contracts · worst first

Deb Haaland55
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 3% vs realized 0%
Greggory D. Hull64
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 44% vs realized 1%
Move quality
60Mostly confirmed

Most moves carried real volume

2 contracts · worst first

Greggory D. Hull60
Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Deb Haaland—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

2 contracts · worst first

Deb Haaland100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Greggory D. Hull100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
55Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 56 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.6c slippage (~2% of a 93.3c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.8c slippage (~2% of a 93.3c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Deb Haaland55Market scoreLiquidity55Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 55
Liquidity
55 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 3% vs realized 0%
Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Greggory D. Hull64Market scoreLiquidity64Move quality60Rule clarity100
Why 64
Liquidity
64 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 44% vs realized 1%
Move quality
60 · Mostly confirmed · medium confidence

Volume opposes the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What evidence in Q3 2026 polling and forecast models supports Deb Haaland's position as the favorite?

Prediction Market Victory Probability94% (as of early September 2026) [1][2][3]
Decision Desk HQ Win Probability84% (as of September 2026) [4][5][6]
Late August Journal Poll Lead+6% (49% to 43%) [1][2][7][4][8][9][5]
Deb Haaland is widely favored to win the New Mexico gubernatorial election. As of early September 2026, prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket price her probability of victory at approximately 94% [1][2][3]. Decision Desk HQ also forecasts Deb Haaland as the clear favorite, with an 84% win probability in September 2026 [4][5][6]. Her frontrunner status is significantly supported by New Mexico's structural Democratic lean [1][10][11].
Q3 2026 polling data shows Haaland consistently leading her opponent, Republican candidate Gregg Hull, although results are mixed. A late August 2026 Journal Poll reported Haaland at 49% against Hull's 43%, giving her a +6% lead [1][2][7][4][8][9][5]. A July/August survey by BSP Research showed a wider +17% lead for Haaland, while a mid-July poll indicated a much closer +1% margin [1][2][7][4][8][9][5].
Forecast models are primarily driven by underlying fundamental conditions, not polling data. The forecast model for the New Mexico race relies on fundamentals for 94-97% of its calculation, with polling contributing only 3-6% [4][5]. These fundamentals include structural conditions such as incumbency, partisan baseline, and campaign finance [4][5]. Additional factors bolstering Haaland's position include strong support among women and highly educated voters, and a significant fundraising advantage [1][10][11]. Haaland secured the Democratic nomination on June 2, 2026, with 72.4% of the vote [9][12][13].
Sources (13)
  1. 1Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull in New Mexico governor raceabqjournal.com
  2. 22026 New Mexico Governor Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  3. 3Deb Haaland: 2026 New Mexico Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  4. 42026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 52026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  6. 62026 Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  7. 7Haaland leads Hull in first public poll - New Mexico Political Reportnmpoliticalreport.com
  8. 8Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org
  9. 9New Mexico gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 10https://polymarket.com/event/new-mexico-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  11. 11Will a Democrat Win the New Mexico Governor Race? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  12. 12Governor of New Mexico - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  13. 132026 New Mexico Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com

6. How do Deb Haaland's and Gregg Hull's platforms compare on key New Mexico issues like the economy, energy, and water rights?

Haaland's Energy PlatformTransition to 100% clean energy and opposition to new fossil fuel infrastructure [1][2][3]
Haaland's Economic FocusSustainable economic growth, balancing development with strict sustainability guardrails [1][2][4][3]
Hull's Primary FocusPromoting economic growth, attracting large employers, and addressing poverty and crime [1]
Deb Haaland and Gregg Hull offer contrasting gubernatorial platforms for New Mexico. Haaland's 2026 gubernatorial platform centers on a clean energy transition, sustainable economic growth, environmental protection, and prioritizing water for community use [1][2][4][5]. In contrast, Gregg Hull aims to challenge policies from the previous eight years of Democratic leadership, with promises to promote economic growth, attract large employers, and tackle the state's high rates of poverty and crime [1].
Haaland details specific policies on energy, economy, and water rights. Her energy policy advocates for a complete transition to 100% clean energy and opposes any new fossil fuel infrastructure projects [1][2][3]. For the economy, she emphasizes sustainable growth, ensuring that economic development, particularly in new sectors like data centers, adheres to strict sustainability guidelines. Her platform also supports investments in water and clean energy infrastructure to generate job opportunities [1][2][4][3]. Regarding water rights, she prioritizes water allocation for community use [1][5].
Hull's platform emphasizes economic growth, with limited details on other areas. His primary focus is boosting economic growth, drawing in major employers, and addressing New Mexico's poverty and crime rates [1]. While he seeks to reverse policies from the prior Democratic administration, specific details concerning his stances on energy or water rights are not provided in the available information [1]. It is also noted that detailed policy platforms for either candidate's 2026 gubernatorial campaign are currently limited or not systematically outlined in expert-curated sources [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Deb Haaland and Gregg Hull to face off for New Mexico governorapnews.com
  2. 2Deb Haaland: 2026 New Mexico Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  3. 3New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Democratic Primary: Deb Haaland talks economy, crime and... - KRQEkrqe.com
  5. 5Deb Haaland's vision for New Mexico comes from traditionhcn.org

7. How might the national political climate and presidential approval ratings in late 2026 influence the outcome of the New Mexico gubernatorial race?

Decision Desk HQ Forecast84% probability for Deb Haaland [1][2][3]
Prediction Market OutlookAbove 90% for Democratic victory [4][5]
Cook Political Report RatingLikely D/Solid D [6][4][7][5][8]
Democratic nominee Deb Haaland is heavily favored in the 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election. The election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, features Haaland against Republican nominee Gregg Hull [6][4][1][9][10]. Forecasts overwhelmingly favor Haaland, with Decision Desk HQ assigning an 84% probability of victory to the Democratic candidate [1][2][3]. Prediction markets, as of early September 2026, also consistently show probabilities for a Democratic win exceeding 90% [4][5].
Several structural factors underpin the strong Democratic outlook in New Mexico. This robust Democratic advantage is attributed to multiple fundamental conditions. A favorable national generic ballot environment, specifically D+5.7 to D+6.4 as of September 2026, significantly influences the race [1][2][3]. Furthermore, the election is an open-seat contest due to incumbent Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham being term-limited, and the Cook Political Report rates the race as Likely D/Solid D, reflecting New Mexico's inherent Democratic lean [6][4][7][5][8]. The available facts do not detail how presidential approval ratings in late 2026 might specifically influence the outcome of this particular race [1][2][3].
Sources (10)
  1. 12026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  2. 22026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 42026 New Mexico gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  5. 52026 New Mexico Governor Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  6. 6New Mexico gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  7. 7NM Governor 2026 - Cook Political Reportcookpolitical.com
  8. 8Will a Democrat Win the New Mexico Governor Race? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  9. 9Governor of New Mexico - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  10. 10New Mexico elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

8. What is Gregg Hull's potential path to victory, and what do fundraising and voter registration data indicate about his chances?

Average Polling Lead (Haaland vs. Hull)8 points (45.3% to 37.3%) (July–August 2026) [1]
Gregg Hull Win Probability (Decision Desk HQ)16% (September 2026) [2][3]
Gregg Hull Funds Raised$950,000 (early July 2026) [4]
Gregg Hull faces a challenging path to victory in New Mexico. This is primarily due to the state's inherent Democratic lean, a significant deficit in fundraising, and lower name recognition compared to his opponent, Deb Haaland [5][6]. Prediction markets and forecasters generally assign Hull low probabilities of winning, despite some polling data suggesting a potentially closer race [1][5][7][6][2][3].
Recent polling shows Deb Haaland with a consistent lead. Data from July–August 2026 indicates Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull by an average of 8 points, with 45.3% to 37.3% respectively [1]. While individual polls have varied, ranging from a 17-point lead for Haaland to a statistical tie, the overall consensus among forecasters remains heavily tilted toward the Democratic candidate due to structural fundamentals [1][2][3][8]. As of September 2026, Decision Desk HQ gives Gregg Hull a 16% win probability, and prediction markets typically cite his odds around 8% to 11% [2][3][1][5][7][6].
A significant fundraising disparity complicates Hull's electoral prospects. As of early July 2026, Deb Haaland had raised approximately $13.9 million with $2.3 million cash-on-hand, whereas Gregg Hull had raised about $950,000 with approximately $300,000 cash-on-hand [4]. This substantial financial disadvantage is a key factor contributing to his difficult electoral outlook [5][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 12026 New Mexico Governor Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  2. 22026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  3. 32026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  4. 4Democratic gubernatorial candidate Haaland outraises Hull 2-1 in...sourcenm.com
  5. 5https://polymarket.com/event/new-mexico-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  6. 6Will a Democrat Win the New Mexico Governor Race? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  7. 7New Mexico Governor Election Winner - Polymarketpolymarket.com
  8. 8Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org

9. What upcoming debates or major campaign events between Haaland and Hull could shift polling before the November 3, 2026 election?

Televised Debate AgreementAgreed to (KOB 4) [1]
Polling Lead (late August 2026)Deb Haaland by 6 points [2]
Prediction Market Favorability (Sept 2026)Democratic victory for Haaland [3][4][5][6][7][8]
One televised debate is scheduled between gubernatorial candidates Haaland and Hull. Democrat Deb Haaland and Republican Gregg Hull have agreed to participate in a single televised gubernatorial debate, which will be hosted by KOB 4 [1]. As of September 9, 2026, a specific date and time for this debate had not yet been confirmed [1]. The available information does not indicate any other scheduled debates between the candidates [7][9]. Furthermore, the research does not contain information on whether this agreed-upon debate or any other potential campaign events could specifically shift polling before the November 3, 2026 election [1].
Recent polling shows a consistent, though varying, lead for Deb Haaland. Polling from late August 2026 indicated Deb Haaland leading Gregg Hull by 6 points in an Albuquerque Journal poll [2], while earlier August polls had suggested wider leads for Haaland [10][3][11][8]. As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets and forecasts heavily favor a Democratic victory for Haaland in the upcoming November 3, 2026 election [3][4][5][6][7][8].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Deb Haaland and Gregg Hull agree to gubernatorial debate - KOB 4kob.com
  2. 2Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull in New Mexico governor raceabqjournal.com
  3. 32026 New Mexico Governor Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  4. 4https://polymarket.com/event/new-mexico-governor-winner-2026?r=predictionhunteventspolymarket.com
  5. 5Will a Democrat Win the New Mexico Governor Race? Winner Odds | Lines.comlines.com
  6. 6Deb Haaland: 2026 New Mexico Governor Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
  7. 72026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  8. 82026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  9. 92026 New Mexico Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
  10. 10Haaland leads Hull in first public poll - New Mexico Political Reportnmpoliticalreport.com
  11. 11New Mexico gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The 2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2][3]. Democratic nominee Deb Haaland and Republican nominee Gregg Hull are the candidates [1][4][3][5]. Current Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham is term-limited and ineligible for a third consecutive term [1][6][7].
Prediction markets in early September 2026 show Deb Haaland with approximately a 94% likelihood of a Democratic win [8]. Recent polling from late August 2026 indicates Haaland leads Hull by a 6-point margin [6][8]. Decision Desk HQ's September 2026 forecast gives Haaland an 84% probability of winning with a projected margin of D+13 [4]. Non-partisan election ratings generally categorize the race as leaning Democratic, ranging from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic [3][9].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 12026 New Mexico gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2STATE OF NEW MEXICOsos.nm.gov
  3. 3New Mexico gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
  4. 42026 New Mexico Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
  5. 5Governor of New Mexico - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Journal Poll: Deb Haaland leads Gregg Hull in New Mexico governor raceabqjournal.com
  7. 7Michelle Lujan Grisham - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 82026 New Mexico Governor Winner by Party | Polls & Oddspredictionedge.com
  9. 9Election 2026 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Electionsuselectionatlas.org