Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Trump to make IVF free before 2029, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has exhibited a stable, sideways trend within a very narrow range of 14.0% to 17.0%. The chart indicates a single, distinct price movement where the probability dropped from its starting point of 17.0% down to 14.0%. Since this shift, the price has remained flat, establishing 14.0% as a firm support level and suggesting a stable market consensus. The total trading volume of 733 contracts is relatively low, and the lack of volume in recent data points suggests that trading activity has subsided since the price found its new level.
The primary price drop from 17.0% to 14.0% appears to be a direct reaction to recent developments. Around the time of the price change, news reports indicated that the Trump administration was not pursuing a policy to make IVF free. Instead, the administration is reported to have proposed a new rule focused on encouraging employers to voluntarily offer fertility benefits. This policy pivot, which moves away from the direct action required for a "YES" resolution in this market, likely caused traders to reassess the probability downwards, leading to the price settling at the current 14.0% level.
Overall, market sentiment is strongly pessimistic regarding the likelihood of Trump making IVF free before his term ends. The initial 17.0% probability was already low, and the drop to 14.0% following the policy news solidified this skepticism. The subsequent flat price action and low volume indicate that the market has priced in this new policy direction and has reached a consensus that the specific terms of the prediction are very unlikely to be met.
  • Trump's 2024 campaign pledged to make IVF "free" or mandate insurance.
  • His administration pursues executive actions and legislative efforts for IVF affordability.
  • The Trump administration proposed new 'excepted benefits' for fertility treatments May 10, 2026.
  • This proposed rule is projected to nearly double employer-sponsored IVF coverage.
  • A single IVF cycle typically costs $15,000 to $25,000 out-of-pocket.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2029 14.0% 6.6% Trump's future policy considerations may include making IVF services free before 2029.

Current Context

Trump has not made IVF free, pursuing voluntary benefits instead. As of May 2026, President Trump has not fulfilled his 2024 campaign pledge to make IVF free [1][2][3][4]. Instead, his administration has shifted focus to encouraging voluntary employer-provided fertility benefits and reducing medication costs [1][2][3][4]. A key action was the proposed rule on May 10, 2026, which would permit employers to offer standalone fertility benefits as "excepted benefits" [1][2][3][4]. This initiative aims to expand access without federal mandates by capping these benefits at a $120,000 lifetime maximum [1][2][3][4].
Administration initiatives prioritize employer benefits and medication cost reduction. Previous administration actions include the launch of TrumpRx.gov in early 2026 to provide discounts on certain fertility medications [5][6][7]. This platform was established following an executive order issued in February 2025 [5][6][7]. However, experts and advocacy groups, such as the American Society for Reproductive Medicine, have expressed skepticism regarding the effectiveness of these voluntary measures [6][8][9][7]. They note that such approaches do not guarantee universal access or cover the full scope of IVF procedural costs [6][8][9][7].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Trump Administration proposes rule to expand access to fertility benefits with new legal pathway for employers to offer benefits directly to employees | U.S. Department of Labordol.gov
  2. 2Trump has a proposal to expand fertility benefits. Here’s how that would workpbs.org
  3. 3'Father of fertility': How Trump just turned IVF into a workplace rightnews.meaww.com
  4. 4Trump IVF Plan Draws Fire From Both Sidesnewsmax.com
  5. 5Trump Unveils Plan For 'Fertility Insurance' and IVF Drugs | TIMEtime.com
  6. 6Does Trump’s Call For Expanding IVF Access Have Any Real Legal Teeth? – Health Law & Policy Briefhealthlawpolicy.org
  7. 7Will Trump’s Announcement Expand Access to IVF?  | KFFkff.org
  8. 8Trump wants to make IVF free. Democrats, Republicans and experts are dubiouscnbc.com
  9. 9Evaluating the Trump Administration’s Initiative on IVF | American Society for Reproductive Medicine | ASRMasrm.org

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the President takes action that eliminates the cost of at least one IVF cycle before January 20, 2029, based on information from official and journalistic sources. If this action does not occur by January 19, 2029, at 11:59 PM EST, the market will resolve to "No." The market opened on July 8, 2025, may close early if the "Yes" event occurs, and prohibits insider trading by persons employed by Source Agencies or those with material, non-public information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before 2029 $0.15 $0.86 14%

Market Discussion

The discussion largely centers on the unlikelihood of "Yes" due to the strict interpretation of the market rules, which require a full IVF cycle to be totally free nationwide—a policy seen as politically impossible, needing significant congressional funding, and unpopular within Trump's base. Arguments for "No" highlight the massive jump from current discussions to full cost elimination. While some users express hope for a "Yes" resolution, the primary question from that perspective is whether Medicaid coverage alone would qualify as making IVF "free," indicating uncertainty about the scope of the rule.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score40High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
84Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
51Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract

Before 202951
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 29% vs realized 6%
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Before 2029—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before 2029100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
40High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 51 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 2.0c slippage (~13% of a 15c contract)

$1,000 order: 28.8c slippage (~192% of a 15c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before 202951Market scoreLiquidity51Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 51
Liquidity
51 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 29% vs realized 6%
Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What legislative or executive pathways could the Trump administration pursue to make IVF 'free' before 2029?

Proposed Fertility Benefit Plan Cap$120,000 lifetime cap (May 2026) [1][2][3]
IVF Medication Discount ProgramTrumpRx.gov launched in early 2026 [4][5][6]
Federal IVF Legislation StatusNot enacted as of May 2026 [7][8][9]
The Trump administration uses executive actions to enhance IVF affordability. The administration has supported legislative and executive efforts to increase the affordability and access to IVF, though these measures do not make IVF 'free' for all patients [1][3][10]. Current pathways primarily focus on reducing out-of-pocket costs through employer benefits and medication discounts, rather than mandating free access [1][3][4][5][6][10]. A proposed rule from May 2026 would allow employers to offer voluntary 'limited excepted' fertility benefit plans, which could include a lifetime cap of $120,000 [1][2][3]. Additionally, TrumpRx.gov was launched in early 2026 to provide negotiated discounts on specific IVF medications via agreements with manufacturers like EMD Serono, directly aiming to reduce patient expenses [4][5][6].
Legislative efforts for IVF access remain un-enacted as of May 2026. Federal legislation, such as H.R. 1878 and H.R. 8119, has been introduced to address IVF access and insurance mandates [7][8][9]. However, as of May 2026, these bills have not been enacted into law [7][8][9]. The available information does not describe additional legislative or executive pathways the Trump administration could pursue to make IVF 'free' before 2029, beyond these current efforts to enhance affordability and reduce costs.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Trump unveils IVF insurance coverage plan for 2027washingtonexaminer.com
  2. 2Trump Administration proposes rule to expand access to fertility benefits with new legal pathway for employers to offer benefits directly to employees | U.S. Department of Labordol.gov
  3. 3Trump Proposes New Fertility Rule to Help Parents Save on IVF - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  4. 4Evaluating the Trump Administration’s Initiative on IVF | American Society for Reproductive Medicine | ASRMasrm.org
  5. 5Trump’s IVF Executive Order: What You Need to Know [Updated May 2026] | Prelude Blogpreludefertility.com
  6. 6Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Announces Actions to Lower Costs and Expand Access to In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) and High-Quality Fertility Care – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  7. 7H.R.4648 - Access to Fertility Treatment and Care Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  8. 8IVF Access and Affordability Act, H.R. 1878 | RESOLVE: The National Infertility Associationresolve.org
  9. 9US bishops urge Congress to reject IVF insurance mandateliveaction.org
  10. 10Trump has a proposal to expand fertility benefits. Here’s how that would workpbs.org

6. How does the estimated cost reduction from Trump's 2026 policies compare to the average out-of-pocket cost for a full IVF cycle?

Estimated IVF Cost Reduction$2,000 to $2,200 (TrumpRx.gov) [1][2][3][4][5]
Average Out-of-Pocket IVF Cost$15,000 to $25,000 (per cycle) [6][7][8][9][10][11]
Reduction Percentage8% to 15% of total IVF cost [2][3][6]
Average out-of-pocket IVF costs are substantial in the U.S. A single cycle of in vitro fertilization (IVF) typically costs between $15,000 and $25,000 in the United States, with some totals exceeding $30,000 when accounting for necessary medications, genetic testing, and various add-on services [6][7][8][9][10][11].
The TrumpRx.gov initiative provides specific fertility medication discounts. This program, launched in February 2026, aims to lower the cost of certain fertility medications through Most-Favored-Nation pricing agreements [1][2][3][4][5]. This initiative is estimated to reduce the overall cost of an IVF cycle by approximately $2,000 to $2,200 [1][2][3][4][5]. This reduction translates to roughly 8% to 15% of the total expense for a standard IVF cycle, given that medications typically constitute about 20% of the complete cost [2][3][6].
Significant additional IVF cost reductions appear unlikely currently. Despite these initial savings, prediction markets currently indicate a low probability, around 20%, that the Trump administration will implement policies to make IVF entirely free before the conclusion of its term [12][13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Announces Actions to Lower Costs and Expand Access to In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) and High-Quality Fertility Care – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2TrumpRx IVF: Will It Actually Lower Your Medication Costs in 2026?rejuvenatingfertility.com
  3. 3Evaluating the Trump Administration’s Initiative on IVF | American Society for Reproductive Medicine | ASRMasrm.org
  4. 4President Trump Launches TrumpRx.gov, Delivering Massive, Immediate Savings to Millions of Americans – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  5. 5White House Press Release - President Trump Launches TrumpRx.gov, Delivering Massive, Immediate Savings to Millions of Americans | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
  6. 6IVF Costs in the USA (2026): A Complete Guide to Pricing, Insurance & Financingovu.com
  7. 7What Is the Average Cost of IVF in the United States? | Blogadvancedfertility.com
  8. 8How much does IVF cost in the U.S. (2026)?get-carrot.com
  9. 9IVF (In Vitro Fertilization) Cost 2026 — How Much Does It Cost?carecostindex.com
  10. 10IVF Cost USA 2026: $15,000–$30,000 by State (All 50 States + Insurance) | IVFPathivfpath.com
  11. 11How Much Does IVF (In Vitro Fertilization) Cost? (2026 Guide) | CostWhalecostwhale.com
  12. 12Will Trump make IVF free? Odds & Predictions - Kalshikalshi.com
  13. 13Will Trump make IVF free? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
  14. 14Will Trump make IVF free? | Science and Technology Prediction...solflare.com

7. How does the Trump administration's proposed 'excepted benefits' framework compare to existing state-level IVF insurance mandates?

Proposal DateMay 10, 2026 [1]
Lifetime Maximum$120,000 per participant [2]
Benefit NatureVoluntary, employer-sponsored [2]
The Trump administration proposed new 'excepted benefits' for fertility treatments on May 10, 2026. This rule aims to create a category of limited excepted benefits, enabling employers to offer standalone fertility coverage that is exempt from many Affordable Care Act (ACA) market reforms [1].
This framework is voluntary, not a federal IVF mandate, for employers [2]. In contrast to state-level IVF mandates that often integrate fertility services into comprehensive health plans, the administration's proposal focuses on employer-sponsored, standalone, voluntary benefits. These benefits would operate outside of major medical plan requirements and include a cap of $120,000 lifetime maximum per participant, with inflation indexing commencing in 2028 [2][3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Trump Administration proposes rule to expand access to fertility benefits with new legal pathway for employers to offer benefits directly to employees | U.S. Department of Labordol.gov
  2. 2Trump agencies propose new category for fertility benefitshr-brew.com
  3. 3Evaluating the Trump Administration’s Initiative on IVF | American Society for Reproductive Medicine | ASRMasrm.org
  4. 4What Trump's IVF executive order means for benefits | Employee Benefit Newsbenefitnews.com
  5. 5Will Trump’s Announcement Expand Access to IVF?  | KFFkff.org

8. What data is available to track employer adoption of the 'excepted benefits' for IVF following the Department of Labor's May 2026 rule?

Proposed Rule DateMay 10, 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Proposed Effective DateJanuary 1, 2027 (for plan years) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Employer Fertility Benefits (pre-proposal)42% of U.S. organizations in 2024 [7][8]
Federal agencies proposed a new pathway for fertility benefits in May 2026. On May 10, 2026, the U.S. Departments of Labor, Health and Human Services, and the Treasury proposed a rule to establish certain fertility benefits as a new category of limited excepted benefits [1][2][3][4]. This proposal would enable employers to offer these benefits outside of major medical coverage requirements for plan years beginning on or after January 1, 2027 [1][2][3][4][5][6].
Specific federal data for tracking excepted benefits adoption is currently unavailable. As the rule is still in the proposed stage, there is no specific, centralized federal data available to track employer adoption of this new 'excepted benefits' pathway for IVF [7][8]. While industry data from the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans (IFEBP) indicated that 42% of U.S. organizations offered some fertility benefits in 2024, this data tracks general fertility benefit adoption prior to the May 2026 proposal, rather than the specific new excepted benefits framework [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Excepted Fertility Benefits | U.S. Department of Laborbeta.dol.gov
  2. 2Federal Register :: Excepted Fertility Benefitsfederalregister.gov
  3. 3Proposed Rule on Excepted Fertility Benefits | U.S. Department of Laborbeta.dol.gov
  4. 4Trump Administration proposes rule to expand access to fertility benefits with new legal pathway for employers to offer benefits directly to employees | U.S. Department of Labordol.gov
  5. 5Feds propose rule to help employers expand fertility benefit coveragehrdive.com
  6. 6Trump administration proposes rule to make offering fertility benefits easier on employerssan.com
  7. 7Fertility Treatment Benefits as Excepted Benefits Coming for Employers - Word on Benefitsblog.ifebp.org
  8. 8Organizations Adding More Fertility and Adoption Supportifebp.org

9. What is the projected impact of the May 2026 'excepted benefits' rule on the number of Americans with employer-sponsored IVF coverage?

Projected increase in employersfrom 268,000 to 523,000 (annual) [1]
Additional enrollees (annual)Up to 750,000 (annual) [1]
Lifetime benefit cap$120,000 per participant [2][1][3]
The May 2026 rule significantly expands employer-sponsored fertility coverage. This proposed rule is projected to nearly double the number of employers offering fertility benefits, increasing from approximately 268,000 to 523,000. This expansion could also enable up to 750,000 additional individuals to enroll in such coverage annually, broadening access to fertility care [1].
The rule establishes a new 'limited excepted benefits' category for fertility. Specifically, it allows employers to offer standalone fertility coverage, which includes IVF, independently of certain Affordable Care Act (ACA) market reforms [2][1][3]. This type of coverage would typically include a lifetime benefit cap of $120,000 per participant [2][1][3].
The proposal creates a voluntary, employer-based IVF coverage pathway. The available information clarifies that this initiative is a voluntary, employer-based program and not a federal mandate or government-funded program [4][5][6][7]. Consequently, critics and analysts suggest that this approach does not fully address a campaign promise to make IVF "free for all Americans," leaving the related prediction market question unresolved [4][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Trump administration proposes rule to make offering fertility benefits easier on employerssan.com
  2. 2Agencies Open the Door to Offering Fertility Coverage as Limited Excepted Benefit | Proskauer - Employee Benefits & Executive Compensation Blog - JDSuprajdsupra.com
  3. 3Trump Administration proposes rule to expand access to fertility benefits with new legal pathway for employers to offer benefits directly to employees | U.S. Department of Labordol.gov
  4. 4Spare families from in vitro fertilization costs: Trump order requests recommendations for making IVF less expensive | PolitiFactapi.politifact.com
  5. 5Trump vowed to make in vitro fertilization free for all Americans. Does his new IVF executive order keep that promise?yahoo.com
  6. 6Will Trump make IVF free? | Science and Technology Prediction...solflare.com
  7. 7Trump IVF Plan Draws Fire From Both Sidesnewsmax.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

President Trump's 2024 campaign pledge was to make IVF "free" or mandate insurance coverage [1][2][3]. However, his administration has not implemented this as a universal mandate; instead, it has pursued a policy of encouraging voluntary employer-sponsored fertility benefits [1][2][3].
The administration's approach includes a proposed rule (announced May 2026) to allow employers to offer standalone fertility benefits as "limited excepted benefits," similar to dental or vision insurance [4][2][3]. This also includes a drug-pricing agreement (TrumpRx.gov) to provide discounts on select IVF medications [4][2][3]. This policy framework relies on voluntary employer participation rather than federal subsidies or universal mandates, with officials aiming for these new benefit options to be available for the 2027 health insurance plan year [5][6][3].
While prediction markets have tracked various fertility-related outcomes, there is no evidence of a specific, active, or high-volume prediction market betting on the fulfillment of a "free IVF" mandate, as the administration's actual policy path has diverged from the campaign rhetoric of a universal mandate [7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 27, 2029
  • Closes: January 20, 2029
Sources (7)
  1. 1Trump says he wants to make IVF treatments paid for by government or insurance companies if electedppe.nbcnews.com
  2. 2Trump Unveils Plan For 'Fertility Insurance' and IVF Drugs | TIMEtime.com
  3. 3Trump unveils IVF insurance coverage plan for 2027washingtonexaminer.com
  4. 4Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Announces Actions to Lower Costs and Expand Access to In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) and High-Quality Fertility Care – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  5. 5Trump Signs Executive Order Aimed at Expanding IVF | AJMCajmc.com
  6. 6Federal Register :: Expanding Access to In Vitro Fertilizationfederalregister.gov
  7. 7Fertility Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com