Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Trump's inner circle shows strategic intent for Insurrection Act usage.
- Plans include invoking the Act for border security and domestic unrest.
- Key groups advocate for expanding presidential power, including Insurrection Act.
- Potential Secretary of Defense candidate Pete Hegseth advocates broad executive power.
- Posse Comitatus Act typically prohibits federal military from domestic enforcement.
- Historical analysis shows no consistent federal warnings before Insurrection Act.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 25.0% | 25.8% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 59.0% | 51.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the President invokes the Insurrection Act to deploy the U.S. military or federalized National Guard within the U.S. before January 20, 2029, using specified news sources and the White House for verification. If this event does not occur by the deadline, the market resolves to "No." The market closes early if the event happens, otherwise it closes by January 20, 2029, at 10:00am EST, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | $0.25 | $0.76 | 25% |
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | $0.62 | $0.41 | 59% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Trust Index
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. Who Shapes Trump's Domestic Policy & Insurrection Act Strategy?
| Key Domestic Policy Figure | Russ Vought, former OMB Director and leader of Center for Renewing America [1] |
|---|---|
| Influential Policy Organizations | Center for Renewing America, Project 2025 (including Heritage Foundation) [2] |
| Proposed Insurrection Act Triggers | Securing border against 'invasion,' suppressing domestic disturbances without state consent [3] |
Sources (6)
- 1Russ Vought | #44 and #42 OMB Directorlinkedin.com
- 2Project 2025en.wikipedia.org
- 3POLICY BRIEF: THE U.S. MILITARY MAY BE USED TO SECURE THE BORDER | The Center for Renewing Americaamericarenewing.com
- 4Jeff Clark’s Insurrection Act Remark Was Even Worse Than It Soundstalkingpointsmemo.com
- 5On the President’s Lawful Authority to Deploy the National Guard to American Cities | The Center for Renewing Americaamericarenewing.com
- 6What is the Insurrection Act and can Trump use it?bbc.com
6. What are potential cabinet members' views on executive power?
| Secretary of Defense Candidate | Pete Hegseth [1] |
|---|---|
| Hegseth's View on Executive Power | Broad interpretation for domestic deployment [2] |
| Attorney General Candidates | Russell Berger, Steve Bannon, Mike Davis, Kash Patel, Jesse Binnall [3] |
Sources (6)
- 1Who will be Trump's Defense Secretary? Predictions & Od... | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2Pete Hegseth asserts Trump can send troops anywhere to protect ICE agents making raids - ABC7 Los Angelesabc7.com
- 3Inside the race to be Trump’s next attorney general as MAGA stars jockey for top job in politically charged DOJ - Yahoo News Canadaca.news.yahoo.com
- 4Pete Hegseth Responds to Claims That He and Trump Want 'Martial Law'newsweek.com
- 5Pete Hegseth Ignores Key Detail About Trump’s Fascist D.C. Takeover | The New Republicnewrepublic.com
- 6Where Defense Secretary Nominee Pete Hegseth Stands on Civil Liberties | American Civil Liberties Unionaclu.org
7. Do Sanctuary States Risk Federal Intervention, Including Insurrection Act?
| Sanctuary Policy Location | Democratic-led states including California, Oregon, New York, Illinois, Minnesota [1] |
|---|---|
| Conservative Legal Warnings | Legal consequences and constitutional frameworks for executive action against state resistance [2] |
| Proposed Federal Intervention | Invocation of the Insurrection Act discussed for states blocking federal immigration operations [3] |
Sources (3)
- 1“Sanctuary” Jurisdictions: Legal Overview | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
- 2When State Resistance Meets the Constitution: Supremacy, Executive Power, and the Architecture of Executing Federal Law | The Center for Renewing Americaamericarenewing.com
- 3Opinion: Trump, the Insurrection Act, and Chicago’s Illusion of Sanctuary - Illinois Reviewillinoisreview.com
8. What is the Military's Stance on Domestic Use of Force?
| Posse Comitatus Act Role | Cornerstone doctrine limiting military involvement in domestic law enforcement [1] |
|---|---|
| Military Leaders' Adherence | Emphasis on constitutional authority and strict legal guidance for domestic deployment [2] |
| Political Rhetoric | Public discussion of using military against 'enemy within' or 'war from within' [3] |
Sources (6)
- 1tal-2022-issue-4 | The Army Lawyer | Periodicals | TJAGLCStjaglcs.army.mil
- 2https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/download/testimony/ditlevson-testimonyarmed-services.senate.gov
- 3Trump defends use of U.S. military against 'enemy within': NPRnpr.org
- 4https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/download/transcript_12-18-25armed-services.senate.gov
- 5https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/download/testimony/young-testimonyarmed-services.senate.gov
- 6https://www.af.mil/Portals/1/documents/2024SAF/SecAF_USAFA_speech_12NOV24.pdfaf.mil
9. Do DOJ/DHS Warnings Precede Insurrection Act Invocation?
| Pre-invocation Warnings | No consistent historical sequence of public warnings or formal declarations from DOJ or DHS preceding presidential consideration of the Insurrection Act [1]. |
|---|---|
| 1992 Insurrection Act Trigger | California Governor declared inability to control widespread violence and requested federal assistance [2], [3], [4]. |
| 2020 Federal Response Context | Federal law enforcement personnel deployed, but Insurrection Act not formally invoked by President [5]. |
Sources (8)
- 1Address to the Nation on the Civil Disturbances in Los Angeles, California | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
- 2Executive Order 12804 - Wikisource, the free online libraryen.wikisource.org
- 3George Bush: Executive Order 12804 - Providing for the Restoration of Law and Order in the City and County of Los Angeles, and Other Districts of Californiaweb.archive.org
- 4Buttressing Institutional Integrity in an Election Year: Federal Force Deployment during L.A. Riots (1992)csis.org
- 52020 deployment of federal forces in the United Statesen.wikipedia.org
- 6Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: George H. W. Bush (1992, Book I) - Address to the Nation on the Civil Disturbances in Los Angeles, Californiagovinfo.gov
- 7A Review of the Department of Justice’s Response to Protest Activity and Civil Unrest in Washington, D.C. in Late May and Early June 2020oig.justice.gov
- 8DOJ OIG Releases Report on DOJ’s Response to Protest Activity and Civil Unrest in Washington, D.C. in Late May and Early June 2020, Including at Lafayette Parkoig.justice.gov
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXINSURRECTION-29-26MAR: NO (Mar 01, 2026)