Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect that Trump ending the Federal Reserve before January 20, 2029 is highly improbable, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for "Will Trump end the Federal Reserve?" has been trading in a stable and narrow range. The price, representing the market's perceived probability, has been confined between a support level at 5.0% and a resistance level at 10.0%. The overall trend is sideways, indicating a lack of a strong directional bias and a consistent, low-probability assessment from traders. The market opened at 9.0% and is currently trading at 7.0%, showing a slight downward drift but remaining firmly within its established channel. There are no significant breakouts or breakdowns from this range.
A notable price movement occurred around April 4th, when the probability dropped from 9.0% to 7.0%. This move is significant because it was accompanied by a substantial increase in trading volume, with 268 contracts traded. This spike in volume suggests that the move lower was backed by strong market conviction. In contrast, periods where the price held at higher levels, such as 9.0%, saw very low or zero volume, indicating weaker conviction at those prices. As no specific news or external context was provided, the direct cause for this specific shift in sentiment cannot be determined from the data alone.
Overall, the market sentiment is consistently bearish on the prospect of Trump ending the Federal Reserve. The probability has never exceeded 10%, reflecting a strong consensus among participants that this is a highly unlikely event. The tight trading range and the fact that significant volume has entered the market to push the price lower reinforce this sentiment. The chart suggests that traders have a stable and low expectation for this outcome, with little new information or speculation causing significant volatility.
  • Dissolving the Federal Reserve requires a specific Act of Congress.
  • Project 2025 proposes significant restructuring, not abolition, of the Fed.
  • Key advisors suggest overhauling, not eliminating, Federal Reserve independence.
  • Major financial lobbying groups strongly support Federal Reserve independence.
  • Significant political and legislative hurdles hinder Federal Reserve dissolution.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Jan 20, 2029 7.0% 6.4% President Trump has repeatedly voiced strong criticisms of the Federal Reserve's policies and structure.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if the Federal Reserve System ends before January 20, 2029; otherwise, it resolves to No. The outcome will be verified using information from the Library of Congress and The New York Times. The market opened on November 21, 2024, and will close early if the event occurs, or by January 20, 2029, at 10:00 am EST, with trading prohibited for employees of Source Agencies and those with material, non-public information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 $0.07 $0.95 7%

Market Discussion

The market discussion primarily suggests that Trump will not end the Federal Reserve, with several traders explicitly stating "No" and calling it a "guaranteed no" outcome. While some users believe Trump would attempt to dismantle the Fed, potentially viewing it as a private corporation and beneficial for America, there is a strong consensus on the unlikelihood of success. One notable comment even speculates about assassination attempts if Trump were to seriously pursue such an action.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 78 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score51Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score78Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
64Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Before Jan 20, 202964
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 42% vs realized 2%
Move quality
76Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract

Before Jan 20, 202976
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before Jan 20, 202995
Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear
Trade quality
51Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 64 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 3.4c slippage (~67% of a 5.1c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before Jan 20, 202964Market scoreLiquidity64Move quality76Rule clarity95
Why 64
Liquidity
64 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 42% vs realized 2%
Move quality
76 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
95 · Clear · high confidence

Objective result from a trusted source (allowlist)

allowlist · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What Legislation and Process Could Dissolve the Federal Reserve System?

Requirement for DissolutionAn Act of Congress to repeal the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 (Public Law 63-43) [1]
Senate Abolition Act"Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act" (S.869) introduced for 119th Congress [2]
Stance of Likely Committee ChairsNo publicly stated positions from Senator Tim Scott or Representative Patrick McHenry within provided research [3]
To dissolve the Federal Reserve System, an Act of Congress would be required, specifically repealing or superseding the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 (Public Law 63-43) [1]. This legislative action would dismantle the system's structure, including the Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Banks. Examples of such legislative efforts include the "Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act" (S.869), introduced in the Senate for the 119th Congress (2025-2026) [2], and a similar bill introduced in the House by Representative Thomas Massie, aiming to "End the Fed" [4].
Key committee chairs lack public statements on dissolving the Federal Reserve. For the 119th Congress (2025-2026), Senator Tim Scott is the likely Republican Chair of the Senate Banking Committee, and Representative Patrick McHenry is the likely Republican Chair of the House Financial Services Committee, assuming Republican majorities [3]. However, the provided research does not contain publicly stated positions from either Senator Scott or Representative McHenry regarding undertaking a measure to dissolve the Federal Reserve System. While legislative proposals to abolish the Federal Reserve exist, they do not originate from or explicitly reflect the stated positions of these likely committee chairs based on the available sources [2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Federal Reserve Board - Federal Reserve Actfederalreserve.gov
  2. 2S.869 - Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act 119th Congress (2025-2026) | Get alertscongress.gov
  3. 3Banking Committee Approves Subcommittee Assignments for the 119th Congress | United States Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairsbanking.senate.gov
  4. 4Rep. Massie Introduces Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act to "End the Fed" | U.S. Representative Thomas Massiemassie.house.gov

6. How Could Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh Reshape Fed Independence?

Bessent's ProposalAccountability doctrine and Bank of England blueprint for Federal Reserve [1]
Market ReactionAlarm over future Fed autonomy triggered by Bessent's proposals [1]
Kevin Warsh's StanceAuthored speeches like 'An Ode to Independence' [2] and 'Rejecting the Requiem' [3]
Scott Bessent's proposals could significantly reshape Federal Reserve independence. Scott Bessent has proposed a significant overhaul of the Federal Reserve's independence, drawing inspiration from a 'Bank of England blueprint' [1]. His 'accountability doctrine' aims to reshape U.S. central bank independence under a potential Trump administration, a prospect that has reportedly triggered market alarm regarding the future autonomy of the Fed [4]. While specific details are limited, these proposals are consistently viewed as having a substantial impact on the central bank's independence [1].
Kevin Warsh has a documented history of supporting central bank independence. Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, has a documented history of statements and speeches regarding central bank independence. He articulated his views in speeches such as 'An Ode to Independence' in March 2010 [2] and 'Rejecting the Requiem' in November 2010 [3], both published by the Federal Reserve. Discussions also suggest Warsh's potential influence on a 'new Treasury–Fed accord,' indicating his views could lead to a re-evaluation of the relationship between the Treasury and the central bank [5]. He has been identified as a potential Fed nominee whose approach could be beneficial for the central bank, particularly concerning its independence [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Scott Bessent's Fed Overhaul: How the Bank of England Blueprint Is Reshaping U.S. Central Bank Independence Under Trump - The Economyeconomy.com.pk
  2. 2Warch Speech: An Ode to Independence Speechfederalreserve.gov
  3. 3Rejecting the Requiem - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov
  4. 4The End of Autonomy? Secretary Bessent’s “Accountability” Doctrine Triggers Market Alarm Over Fed Independencemarkets.financialcontent.com
  5. 5A Note on Warsh and a New Treasury–Fed Accordfinregrag.com
  6. 6Trump’s Fed Pick Kevin Warsh Could Be Just What the Central Bank Needscity-journal.org

7. Does Project 2025 Aim to Abolish or Restructure the Federal Reserve?

Federal Reserve StatusNot outright abolition, but radical restructuring proposed [1]
Fed Funding MechanismSubject to congressional appropriations, stripping independent funding [2]
Fed Dual MandateRepeal; replace with singular focus on price stability [2]
Project 2025 does not advocate for outright Federal Reserve abolition. Its "Mandate for Leadership" proposes a comprehensive and radical restructuring of the institution, specifically in Chapter 24, "Federal Reserve," aimed at drastically limiting its independence, narrowing its mandate, and bringing it under greater political control [1]. These proposed reforms are significant, fundamentally altering the Fed's structure and operations without dissolving the institution entirely [2].
Key reforms aim to significantly curtail the Federal Reserve's autonomy. The Mandate outlines proposals to subject the Federal Reserve to congressional appropriations, thereby stripping its current independent funding mechanism [2]. Furthermore, it advocates for repealing the Fed's current "dual mandate" (price stability and maximum employment) and replacing it with a singular focus on achieving price stability [2]. The plan also calls for repealing the Fed's emergency lending authority under Section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act, limiting its ability to intervene during financial crises [2]. Other significant proposals include a comprehensive, top-to-bottom audit of the Fed, investigating options to link the dollar's value to a "fixed measure of value" such as gold or a basket of commodities, and prohibiting the development and deployment of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC) [2].
These proposed changes would fundamentally redefine the Federal Reserve's role. If implemented, these reforms would transform the Federal Reserve from an independent central bank to an entity far more accountable to—and constrained by—the political branches of government [1]. Although the Heritage Foundation has previously published commentaries suggesting it is "Time To End the Fed" [3], the specific policy recommendations within Project 2025's "Mandate for Leadership" focus on a profound overhaul and reduction of power rather than complete dissolution [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Abolish the Federal Reserve? Here’s What Conservatives’ Project 2025 Would Do.barrons.com
  2. 2Mandate for Leadership - Chapter 24 - Federal Reserve | The Stennett Reportthestennettreport.github.io
  3. 3Time To End the Fed and Its Mismanagement of Our Economy | The Heritage Foundationheritage.org

8. How Did Italy's 2018 Central Bank Proposals Impact Markets?

Proposed ECB Debt Forgiveness€250 billion ($293 billion) [1], [2]
Italy 10-Year Bond Yield (April 2018)1.74% [3], [4]
Italy 10-Year Bond Yield (May 2018)2.33% [3], [4]
Italy's populist parties proposed significant challenges to central banking norms. In May 2018, Italy's populist 5-Star Movement and League parties, while attempting to form a government, introduced proposals that significantly challenged traditional central banking operations. Key among these initiatives was a proposal to nationalize the Bank of Italy [5]. Additionally, the prospective coalition drafted an agreement to request the European Central Bank (ECB) forgive €250 billion, equivalent to $293 billion at the time, of Italy's debt, arguing it should not count towards public debt [1], [2]. These controversial initiatives, coupled with plans to increase spending and review European Union rules, generated substantial political uncertainty [6].
Financial markets reacted sharply, causing significant turmoil in bond markets. Sovereign bond markets experienced considerable turmoil, with Italian bonds suffering a rout [7] and markets shuddering [4] in the month following these announcements. Italy's 10-year government bond yields notably surged, rising from 1.74% on April 27, 2018, to 2.33% by May 18, 2018 [3], [4]. This represented an increase of 59 basis points within three weeks, pushing yields to 14-month highs. Amid this market unrest, Moody's also issued a threat to downgrade Italy's sovereign credit rating [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 15-Star, League want ECB to forgive 250 billion euros of Italy debt: draftreuters.com
  2. 2Italy: Populist parties attempting to form government consider asking ECB to write off £218bn of country's debtindependent.co.uk
  3. 3Italy's govt bond yields rise to 14-month highsreuters.com
  4. 4Italy's 5-Star, League on verge of govt deal; markets shudderreuters.com
  5. 5Commissione Banche, M5s: nazionalizzare Borsa e Banca d'Italia - Corriere.itcorriere.it
  6. 6Italy's maverick coalition to boost spending, seek review of EU rulesreuters.com
  7. 7Italian bonds suffer rout as political turmoil intensifies – The Irish Timesirishtimes.com
  8. 8As Italy struggles to form a government, Moody's threatens downgradereuters.com

9. Which Major Lobbying Groups Support Federal Reserve Independence?

ABA Annual Lobbying (2020-2023 range)$14.0 million to $15.0 million [1]
ABA Peak Annual Lobbying Spend$15.0 million (2022) [1]
Key Organizations Supporting Fed IndependenceAmerican Bankers Association, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Financial Services Forum [2]
Major financial lobbying groups consistently support Federal Reserve independence. Key organizations, including the American Bankers Association (ABA), the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and the Financial Services Forum, advocate for the Federal Reserve's autonomy and would likely oppose any attempts at its abolition. The ABA has been a notable proponent, spending approximately $14.0 million to $15.0 million annually on overall lobbying from 2020 to 2023, with 'Monetary Policy' consistently appearing in its lobbying reports [1]. The ABA explicitly considers the Fed's independence crucial for sound monetary policy and financial stability, ensuring it remains free from political interference [3].
Other influential groups also firmly support the Fed's autonomy. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce strongly backs the Federal Reserve's independence, opposing actions that would undermine its autonomy and asserting its importance for effective monetary policy and economic stability [2]. Similarly, the Financial Services Forum, which represents CEOs of major financial institutions, advocates for the Federal Reserve's independence, emphasizing that critical policy decisions should be guided by economic and financial merits [4]. While these groups have clear policy stances, specific lobbying expenditure figures solely dedicated to Federal Reserve independence are not separately detailed for either the U.S. Chamber of Commerce or the Financial Services Forum in the provided research.
Sources (4)
  1. 1American Bankers Assn Lobbying Profile • OpenSecretsopensecrets.org
  2. 2The Fed’s Independence Goes Back to the Founding | U.S. Chamber of Commerceuschamber.com
  3. 3https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25A312/381026/20251029155239502_25A312%20Amicus%20Brief.pdfsupremecourt.gov
  4. 4https://fsforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Financial-Services-Forum-Jan-2025-1.pdffsforum.com