Topic tracker · Politics
Mar-a-Lago trips
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (0 live, 2 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Mar-a-Lago trips markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated May 7, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in May 2026? | May 31, 2026 | 0.0% vs 1.0% | Report → |
| How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in Apr 2026? | May 1, 2026 | 0.1% vs 1.0% | Report → |
