Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the travel ban to end for any countries participating in the World Cup, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has seen a significant downward price movement within a very low probability range. The contract began trading at a high of 6.6% but has since fallen to its current price of 2.9%. The most notable event in the chart is the sharp decline from 6.6% to 2.9% around June 9. This drop in perceived probability directly correlates with the current context, which confirms that as of that date, a comprehensive travel ban under Presidential Proclamation 10998 remains fully in effect. With the resolution date of June 11 fast approaching, this information appears to have significantly decreased traders' confidence that the policy would be reversed in time for any World Cup nation.
The market has a total traded volume of 1,789 contracts, suggesting a moderate level of engagement. However, the sample data points show zero volume during the price drop, indicating the price may have been adjusted by the market maker or a small number of traders reacting to the news, rather than a high-volume sell-off. This suggests that while there is interest, conviction may not be particularly deep, and the price is highly sensitive to external news. The initial price of 6.6% has acted as a firm resistance level that the market has since rejected. The all-time low of 1.6% may now serve as a potential support level.
Overall, the price action reflects a deeply pessimistic market sentiment from the outset. The probability of a "YES" resolution has never been high, and the recent price collapse to 2.9% shows that traders have become even more certain that the travel ban will not end for any participating countries before the deadline. The market consistently implies that the continuation of the existing policy is the most likely outcome.
  • Travel bans remain for 39 nations, including four World Cup participants.
  • Presidential Proclamation 10998 restricts entry from 39 nations for security reasons.
  • May 2026 waiver only exempts visa bond payments, not a full lifting.
  • U.S. State Department maintains bans, but offers FIFA PASS for attendees.

Current Context

The United States maintains a comprehensive travel ban impacting World Cup nations. As of June 9, 2026, Presidential Proclamation 10998, which took effect on January 1, 2026, continues to impose comprehensive travel and visa restrictions, expanding upon previous policies from 2025 [1][2][3][4]. This policy fully or partially suspends entry and visa issuance for nationals of 39 countries, as well as individuals using Palestinian Authority-endorsed travel documents [1][2][3][4][5]. Several nations participating in the 2026 World Cup are affected by these restrictions, including those subject to full entry bans (such as Iran and Haiti) and partial bans (such as Senegal and Ivory Coast), which presents significant challenges for fans and official delegations attempting to enter the United States for the tournament [6][5].
Recent legal and policy developments offer minimal changes to entry restrictions. A U.S. federal court ruling on June 5, 2026, overturned certain USCIS policies that had paused the processing of immigration benefits like green cards and work permits for individuals from the 39 affected countries [7][8]. Despite this, the underlying State Department travel and entry restrictions that govern who can physically enter the country remain in force [7][8]. In a separate development in May 2026, the U.S. government announced a limited accommodation for World Cup participants from specific countries, including Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Tunisia, by waiving the requirement for high-value financial deposits, provided they hold valid tournament tickets [6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Suspension of Visa Issuance to Foreign Nationals to Protect... - Traveltravel.state.gov
  2. 2Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the...whitehouse.gov
  3. 3Expanded “Travel Ban” to Take Effect January 1, 2026 - Congress.govcongress.gov
  4. 4Understanding Trump's Travel and Immigration Bansasianlawcaucus.org
  5. 5UNITED STATES TRAVEL ADVISORY April 23, 2026 In light of the deteriorating human rights situation in the United States and in the absence of meaningful action and concrete guarantees from FIFA, host cities, or the U.S. government, the undersigned organizations are issuing this travel advisory for fans, players, journalists, and other visitors traveling to and within the United States for the June 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. World Cup games will be played in 11 different cities across the United States, which, like many localities, have already been the target of the Trump administration’s violent and abusive immigration crackdown. The impacts of these policies vary by locality. While the Trump administration’s rising authoritarianism and increasing violence pose serious risks to all, those from immigrant communities, racial and ethnic minority groups, and LGBTQ+ individuals have been and continue to be disproportionately targeted and affected by the administration’s policies and, as such, are most vulnerable to serious harm when traveling to and/or within the United States. This travel advisory calls on fans, players, journalists, and other visitors to exercise caution and have an emergency contingency plan when traveling to and within the United States. WARNING: Individuals may encounter or be subjected to the following risks and harms in breach of the United States’ human rights obligations under domestic and international law:amnestyusa.org
  6. 6'A World Cup for them not us': Fans' anger at US travel bans and visa restrictionsbbc.com
  7. 7US court blocks Trump's immigration pause for 39 countries: Details | Immigration News - Business Standardbusiness-standard.com
  8. 8US judge rejects Trump policies aimed at immigrants from 39 countries | The Nationalthenationalnews.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to YES if Donald Trump issues a qualifying executive action, such as an executive order or proclamation, before June 10, 2026, at 11:59 PM EDT, revoking the suspension of entry for nationals of Haiti, Iran, Côte d'Ivoire, or Senegal. This action must be personally signed by the President, explicitly address the topic with legal or policy effect, and be documented by the White House, the President, or the Federal Register. If no such action occurs by this deadline, the market resolves to NO; otherwise, it closes early upon the action's issuance.

Market Discussion

As of June 9, 2026, the United States enforces broad travel restrictions, including full bans on 19 countries and partial bans on 20 countries, under Presidential Proclamation 10998 [1][2][3]. There are no special FIFA World Cup 2026 visas or exemptions; attendees must comply with standard national immigration and visa requirements for host countries, regardless of their team's participation [4][5][6][7]. Prediction market discussions in mid-2026 reflect persistent speculation regarding the expansion of U.S. travel restrictions, rather than their termination for any countries [8][9][10].

Sources (10)
  1. 1Where American Immigration Policy Stands in 2026 - Center for Sustainable Immigrationcenterforsustainableimmigration.com
  2. 2US Travel Ban 2026: Full List of Countries and What You Need to Know - Wego Travel Blogblog.wego.com
  3. 3Understanding Trump's Travel and Immigration Bansasianlawcaucus.org
  4. 4FIFA WORLD CUP 2026™ TRAVEL, VISAS, AND FIFA PASSfifa.com
  5. 5The CBSA shares tips on travelling to Canada for FIFA World Cup 2026™ - Canada.cacanada.ca
  6. 6Canada Entry Requirements for FIFA World Cup 2026: Visas, eTA and Travel Rules | Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen & Loewy LLPfragomen.com
  7. 7FIFA Mexico 2026 World Cup Entry Requirements: Visa and Immigration Guide | Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen & Loewy LLPfragomen.com
  8. 8Will Trump suspend U.S. entry for more countries by Dec 31?lines.com
  9. 9Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries b… 79% Yes · Polymarketexplorer.struct.to
  10. 10Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by… 41% No · Polymarketexplorer.struct.to

4. What are the primary legal and executive pathways through which Presidential Proclamation 10998 could be modified for a World Cup nation before June 2026?

Date of Proclamation 10998December 16, 2025 [1][2][3]
Countries affected by Proclamation 1099839 countries [1][2][3]
2026 FIFA World Cup exemptionAthletes, coaches, and support staff (not fans, journalists, or sponsors) [4][5]
Presidential Proclamation 10998 restricts entry from 39 nations for security reasons. Issued on December 16, 2025, this proclamation limits the entry of foreign nationals from 39 specified countries into the United States, citing national security and public safety concerns [1][2][3]. The primary legal foundation for this executive action is sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), which grant the President extensive authority to restrict the admission of foreign nationals [1][2].
Proclamation 10998 exempts athletes but not World Cup fans or media. While the proclamation specifically includes an exception for athletes, coaches, and essential support staff involved in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, it explicitly does not extend this exemption to fans, journalists, or corporate sponsors affected by the travel restrictions [4][5]. Modifications to the proclamation can occur through executive pathways, such as the President issuing a new proclamation or delegating authority to the Secretary of State to grant individual exceptions [6][4]. However, as of June 2026, there have been no indications of a comprehensive reversal of these restrictions for World Cup fans [6][4].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Federal Register, Volume 90 Issue 242 (Friday, December 19, 2025)govinfo.gov
  2. 2Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals To Protect the Security of the United Statesfederalregister.gov
  3. 3Proclamation 10998—Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals To Protect the Security of the United States | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
  4. 4Explainer: Impact of Travel and Immigration Restrictions on the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup - National Immigration Forumforumtogether.org
  5. 5No respite for World Cup fans affected by Trump travel restrictions - ESPNespn.ph
  6. 6'A World Cup for them not us': Fans' anger at US travel bans and visa restrictionsbbc.com

5. What is the official stance of the U.S. State Department and FIFA regarding travel exemptions for 2026 World Cup delegations from countries like Iran or Haiti?

Full Travel Ban CountriesIran, Haiti (U.S. State Department for 2026 World Cup) [1][2][3]
Partial Travel Ban CountriesSenegal, Ivory Coast (U.S. State Department) [1]
FIFA Fan Exemption StatusNot secured; ticket holders must meet standard U.S. visa requirements [4]
The U.S. State Department maintains travel bans for certain World Cup nations. The U.S. State Department has imposed a full travel ban on nationals from Iran and Haiti for the 2026 World Cup, although team players, coaches, and their immediate family members are exempt from these restrictions [1][2][3]. Additionally, citizens from Senegal and Ivory Coast are subject to a partial ban under Presidential Proclamation 10998 [1]. Consequently, ordinary fans from these countries face significant obstacles to traveling to the United States for the tournament [1][2][3].
FIFA has not secured blanket travel exemptions for fans from these nations. In May 2026, the U.S. administration waived a $15,000 visa bond requirement for ticket holders from five countries: Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Tunisia [5][6][5]. However, this action did not lift the overarching travel bans for nations like Iran and Haiti [5][6][5]. FIFA has confirmed that it has not secured a blanket exemption for fans from banned countries, reiterating that all ticket holders must meet standard U.S. visa and vetting requirements [1][4][3]. The United States has maintained its travel and visa restrictions throughout the period leading up to the tournament's start on June 11, 2026 [1][4][3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1No respite for World Cup fans affected by Trump travel restrictions - ESPNespn.ph
  2. 2This is the current situation for fans and players from countries banned by the Trump Administration - AS USAen.as.com
  3. 3Iran and Haiti qualified for the World Cup but face U.S. travel bans, affecting fans | WUNC Newswunc.org
  4. 4'A World Cup for them not us': Fans' anger at US travel bans and visa restrictionsbbc.com
  5. 5Foreign ticket holders from World Cup teams' countries won't have to pay bonds to enter U.S. | WGLTwglt.org
  6. 6United States: State Department Announces Update for FIFA World Cup 2026 Travelers | Fragomen, Del Rey, Bernsen & Loewy LLPfragomen.com

6. How does the May 2026 financial deposit waiver for nations like Senegal and Ivory Coast differ from a full lifting of the travel ban?

Waiver RecipientsWorld Cup ticket holders from Senegal and Ivory Coast [1]
Waiver BenefitExemption from paying $5,000–$15,000 visa bond [1][2][3]
Travel Ban ImplementationDecember 2025 [4][5][6]
The May 2026 waiver only exempts visa bond payments for some travelers. This financial deposit waiver, specifically for World Cup ticket holders from Senegal and Ivory Coast, provides an exemption solely from paying a visa bond, which typically ranges from $5,000 to $15,000 [1][2][3]. However, this waiver does not lift the underlying partial travel ban, nor does it grant entry to the United States, nor does it allow for new visitor visas to be issued to citizens of these countries [1].
The December 2025 travel ban remains effective, limiting new visa access. The travel ban, which was implemented in December 2025, continues to be fully enforced, preventing citizens of Senegal and Ivory Coast from obtaining new visitor visas for travel to the United States [4][5][6]. As a result, the deposit waiver is largely irrelevant for fans who did not already possess a valid visa before the ban took effect, as it does not signify the end of the travel ban itself [4][5][6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Trump administration drops $15,000 visa deposit for foreign fans with World Cup tickets - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
  2. 2US Waives Visa Bonds for World Cup Fans From 5 Nationsbetzoid.com
  3. 3Foreign ticket holders from World Cup countries won't have to pay bonds to enter USnewschannel9.com
  4. 4Trump travel ban leaves Senegal and Ivory Coast fans in limbo for World Cupnbcnews.com
  5. 5'A World Cup for them not us': Fans' anger at US travel bans and visa restrictionsmodernghana.com
  6. 6Trump travel ban leaves Senegal, Ivory Coast fans in limbo for World Cupclickorlando.com
  7. 7Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in...kalshi.com
  8. 8Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World...coinbase.com
  9. 9Will the travel ban end for any countries participating in the World...coinbase.com

7. What official timelines and visa processing data has the U.S. State Department released specifically for attendees of the 2026 World Cup?

FIFA PASS ReleaseU.S. State Department released for expedited B1/B2 visa interviews [1][2]
Travel Bans MaintainedFor 39 countries, including World Cup competitors Haiti, Iran, Senegal, and Ivory Coast [3][1][4]
Visa Bond WaiverAnnounced May 2026 for ticket-holding citizens from Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Tunisia [5][4]
The U.S. State Department created FIFA PASS for expedited visa appointments. The FIFA Priority Appointment Scheduling System (FIFA PASS) was introduced by the U.S. State Department to facilitate expedited B1/B2 visitor visa interview appointments for individuals holding tickets to the 2026 World Cup [1][2]. However, official timelines or detailed visa processing data specifically released by the State Department regarding these arrangements are not specified in the available information [1][2].
Travel bans persisted for 39 nations, including World Cup participants. Despite the introduction of FIFA PASS, the U.S. administration maintained existing travel bans and restricted visa processing for 39 countries [3][1][4]. This list included four nations competing in the World Cup: Haiti, Iran, Senegal, and Ivory Coast [3][1][4]. Exceptions to these restrictions were generally limited to athletes, coaches, and support staff, rather than general fans from these countries [3][1][4].
A waiver for visa bond requirements was issued for five countries. In May 2026, a targeted waiver was announced by the U.S. government, exempting ticket-holding citizens from five World Cup-qualifying countries—Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Tunisia—from a $15,000 visa bond requirement [5][4]. This waiver did not lead to the lifting of the broader travel bans for restricted nations [5][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1FIFA World Cup 26 Visas Pass FAQ - United States Department of Statestate.gov
  2. 2FIFA World Cup 2026™ ticket holders to benefit from prioritised U.S....inside.fifa.com
  3. 3US Department of State Guide: FIFA PASS Visa Procedures for World Cup 2026 - Malescu Law, PA - Miami FL Business & Immigration Lawyersmalesculaw.com
  4. 4This is the current situation for fans and players from countries banned by the Trump Administration - AS USAen.as.com
  5. 5'A World Cup for them not us': Fans' anger at US travel bans and visa restrictionsbbc.com

8. What diplomatic pressures from allied nations or FIFA could influence the White House to issue travel ban exemptions before the World Cup?

Travel ban status for general citizensNot lifted as of June 9, 2026 (two days before tournament start) [1][2][3]
Exemption for athletes/staffPreviously carved out for World Cup athletes, coaches, and necessary support staff from 39 countries and Palestinian Authority [4][5][6][7]
Visa bond waiver for fansGranted in May 2026 for ticketed fans from 5 specific nations (Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Tunisia) [8][9][10]
White House maintains travel bans for general citizens before the World Cup. As of June 9, 2026, two days before the start of the tournament, the White House has not lifted the core travel bans for general citizens from the restricted World Cup nations [1][2][3]. This ongoing restriction effectively prevents many fans, journalists, and corporate sponsors from 39 affected countries, including Iran, Haiti, Senegal, and Ivory Coast, from entering the U.S. for the event [9][11][2][12].
Specific exemptions permit athletes and some ticketed fans to enter. Despite the broad restrictions, some specific exemptions have been implemented. The previous Trump administration explicitly allowed World Cup athletes, coaches, and necessary support staff from affected countries and the Palestinian Authority to enter the U.S. [4][5][6][7]. More recently, in May 2026, the U.S. administration granted a limited exemption to the broader visa bond requirement, enabling ticketed fans from Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Tunisia to enter without paying bonds of up to $15,000 [8][9][10].
Information on specific diplomatic pressures for further exemptions is unavailable. While there are mentions of a potential "diplomatic off-ramp" and other "diplomatic channels," the available information does not specify what diplomatic pressures from allied nations or FIFA could influence the White House to issue further travel ban exemptions for general citizens [13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Iran's World Cup team blast US visa row on arrival in Mexico - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012al-monitor.com
  2. 2World Cup: US accused of shutting world outthecanary.co
  3. 3World Cup visitors to the US may not always get a warm welcome | The Nationalthenationalnews.com
  4. 4US names major sporting events exempt from Trump visa ban | AP Newsapnews.com
  5. 5U.S. names major sporting events exempt from Trump visa ban – NBC New Yorknbcnewyork.com
  6. 6Trump Administration Grants Visa Exemptions for Athletes at Major Sporting Events Amid Broad Travel Ban – [your]NEWSyournews.com
  7. 7Explainer: Impact of Travel and Immigration Restrictions on the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup - National Immigration Forumforumtogether.org
  8. 8Foreign ticket holders from World Cup teams' countries won't have to pay bonds to enter U.S. | KGOU - Oklahoma's NPR Sourcekgou.org
  9. 9'A World Cup for them not us': Fans' anger at US travel bans and visa restrictions - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
  10. 10Trump administration waiving visa bonds for World Cup fans - ESPNespn.com
  11. 11FIFA World Cup 2026: The Geopolitical Tensions at Play Off the Pitchcfr.org
  12. 12No respite for World Cup fans affected by Trump travel restrictions - ESPNespn.com.au
  13. 13Instant Reaction: Trump Extends Iran Truce, Maintains Blockade as Talks Falter | Bloomberg...youtube.com
  14. 14Bloomberg Surveillance TV: March 25th, 2026 | Bloomberg Surveillanceyoutube.com

9. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of June 9, 2026, the Trump administration's travel bans remain in effect for 39 countries, including four World Cup participants: Iran and Haiti (full ban) and Senegal and Ivory Coast (partial ban) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. While athletes, coaches, and support staff for the World Cup have categorical exceptions, fans from these nations are generally barred from tourist/visitor visas needed to attend [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. The U.S. government announced a waiver in May 2026 for a $15,000 visa bond requirement previously applied to fans from five participating countries (Algeria, Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Tunisia) who had purchased World Cup tickets by mid-April [4][6][7]. This is a specific financial waiver rather than an end to the underlying travel ban [4][6][7].
A federal court ruling on June 8, 2026, struck down nationality-based freezes on USCIS immigration benefit applications (e.g., asylum, green cards, work permits) for the 39 banned countries [8][9]. However, this ruling does not overturn the Department of State's separate travel bans or visa issuance suspensions for applicants located overseas [8][9]. Political prediction markets in June 2026 are heavily focused on high-frequency data, such as Trump's Truth Social posting volume and specific rhetorical choices in upcoming events, rather than immediate shifts in broad travel policies, which are considered durable under the current administration's executive authority [10][11][12][13][14].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 18, 2026
  • Closes: June 11, 2026
Sources (14)
  1. 1Suspension of Visa Issuance to Foreign Nationals to Protect... - Traveltravel.state.gov
  2. 2Where American Immigration Policy Stands in 2026 - Center for Sustainable Immigrationcenterforsustainableimmigration.com
  3. 3Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the...whitehouse.gov
  4. 4'A World Cup for them not us': Fans' anger at US travel bans and visa restrictionsbbc.com
  5. 5Which 2026 Fifa World Cup countries does Trump's travel ban impact? | The Nationalthenationalnews.com
  6. 6This is the current situation for fans and players from countries banned by the Trump Administration - AS USAen.as.com
  7. 7FIFA World Cup 2026: The Geopolitical Tensions at Play Off the Pitchcfr.org
  8. 8Federal Court Blocks Sweeping Pause on Legal Immigration for Nationals of 39 Countries - American Immigration Councilamericanimmigrationcouncil.org
  9. 9USCIS Immigration Freeze Overturned for 39 Countries | 2026 Updatevisaverge.com
  10. 10Will Trump Meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?lines.com
  11. 11Will Trump Say 'Affordable' at the June Health Care Event?lines.com
  12. 12Will Trump Post 200+ Times on Truth Social, June 9-16?lines.com
  13. 13Will Trump Post 200+ Times on Truth Social, June 2-9?lines.com
  14. 14Will Trump Post 200+ Times on Truth Social June 5-12?lines.com