Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Trump to be impeached and removed from office before his term ends, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market is characterized by a sideways trend, with the probability of impeachment and removal trading within a narrow six-point range between 21.0% and 27.0%. The current price of 22.0% is near the established support level, having drifted down from a starting point of 25.0%. This persistent range-bound activity, supported by a significant total volume of over 27,000 contracts, suggests a stable market consensus and a lack of conviction for a major move in either direction. The market has effectively established 21.0% as a floor and 27.0% as a ceiling for the perceived probability.
The recent price fluctuation within this range can be directly linked to the provided context. The market saw a brief increase to 26.0% following reports that articles of impeachment were filed in early April 2026. However, this upward momentum reversed quickly, with the price falling to 22.0% by May 8. This drop suggests that while traders initially reacted to the headline news, they ultimately assessed that the filing represents a preliminary step with a low chance of leading to actual removal from office. The market sentiment, as reflected by the price action, indicates a consistent belief that impeachment and removal is a low-probability event, with traders selling into any temporary price spikes driven by procedural developments.
  • Seven Republican senators previously voted to convict Donald Trump.
  • House resolutions detailed multiple serious legal grounds for impeachment.
  • Impeachment and 25th Amendment removal processes differ significantly.
  • No official 119th Congress impeachment timetables or records have been found.
  • 2026 midterm elections may influence potential impeachment proceedings.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before his term ends 22.0% 17.0% Impeachment and removal from office requires significant political will and a supermajority vote in the Senate.

Current Context

Impeachment efforts against Donald Trump remain in preliminary stages as of May 8, 2026. Official reporting and bill status indicate that actions initiated in 2025–26 are currently at the "introduced/articles filed" stage. For example, H.Res.353 is listed as "Introduced," and Representative John Larson confirmed filing articles on April 7, 2026, which USA Today also covered [1][2][3]. These developments do not signify a near-term progression towards Senate conviction or removal from office. Donald Trump's second term is scheduled to conclude on January 20, 2029, and any scenario involving his removal would need to occur before that date, unless through impeachment conviction or the 25th Amendment [4].
Prediction markets show increasing probabilities for Trump's impeachment by 2028. Coverage reveals rising implied chances of impeachment before January 1, 2028, with one summary indicating approximately 68% for impeachment on Kalshi, and separate reporting showing 64–66% [5][6][7][8]. However, these figures are not official outcomes and are subject to rapid fluctuations based on political and legal news developments.
Chances for Trump's removal from office also show an increase, according to some reports. One outlet, Newsweek, reported on April 20, 2026, that Kalshi’s "removal" probability had reached a record high of approximately 28.7% at the time of publication [9]. This reporting underscored the significant procedural barriers to removal, particularly the constitutional requirement of a two-thirds vote in the Senate for conviction and removal from office.
Sources (9)
  1. 1H.Res.353 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  2. 2Larson Files Articles of Impeachment, Calls for 25th Amendment as Trump Becomes More Unhinged | Congressman John Larsonlarson.house.gov
  3. 3Is Donald Trump getting impeached? Articles filed in 2026usatoday.com
  4. 4President Donald Trump [R, 2025-2029], President of the United States - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  5. 5Trump Impeachment: 68% Of Bettors Predict Yes, Here's The Timelineone.news18.com
  6. 6Donald Trump Out as President Odds: Will He Exit Early?covers.com
  7. 7Is Trump finished? Impeachment bets surge as Democrats seen winning back Housedigitaltoday.co.kr
  8. 8Is Trump getting impeached? Midterm elections 2026 predictions, oddsrgj.com
  9. 9Donald Trump's Chances of Being Removed From Office Reach All-Time High - Newsweeknewsweek.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the President of the United States is impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before January 20, 2029, provided the President is sitting in office the day the Senate votes. Otherwise, the market resolves to NO if this event does not occur by the deadline. The market closes early if the event occurs, or by January 20, 2029, at 10:00 AM EST, with outcomes verified by the U.S. Senate.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before his term ends $0.22 $0.79 22%

Market Discussion

Traders are intensely focused on the market rules requiring both impeachment by the House and conviction by 67 Senators, viewing the latter as an extremely high bar. Arguments for "No" primarily cite the near impossibility of securing 67 Senate votes for conviction, with many suggesting that Donald Trump would likely resign to avoid removal if faced with that prospect. Conversely, some "Yes" arguments propose that a strong Democratic Senate majority combined with a contingent of Republicans disloyal to Trump could make conviction possible.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score34High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
85Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
41Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract

Before his term ends41
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Before his term ends—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before his term ends100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
34High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 41 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 1.0c slippage (~6% of a 17c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.2c slippage (~7% of a 17c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before his term ends41Market scoreLiquidity41Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 41
Liquidity
41 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. Which Republican senators are considered potential swing votes, and what events could lead them to support a conviction of Donald Trump in a post-2026 Senate trial?

GOP Senators voted to convict in 2021 trial7 (Burr, Cassidy, Collins, Murkowski, Romney, Sasse, Toomey) [1]
2021 Impeachment trial vote57-43 (fell short of 67 votes needed for conviction) [1]
Probability of House impeachment before term ends76% (Polymarket) [2]
Seven Republican senators previously voted to convict Donald Trump. During the 2021 Senate trial, Richard Burr, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitt Romney, Ben Sasse, and Pat Toomey all voted to convict Donald Trump [1]. The final tally was 57–43, which did not meet the 67-vote threshold necessary for a conviction [1]. Six of these senators—Cassidy, Romney, Collins, Toomey, Murkowski, and Sasse—were identified as potential swing votes to consider for any future conviction support due to their behavior in the prior trial [3].
Research provides no specific events for future conviction support. The available research does not contain specific information regarding potential events that could lead these or other senators to support a conviction of Donald Trump in a post-2026 Senate trial. However, current prediction markets offer some insight into the probability of impeachment and removal. A Kalshi contract predicting Trump's impeachment and removal from office, with a resolution date before January 20, 2029, is currently priced at 23¢ for 'Yes' [4]. Separately, a Polymarket contract concerning Trump's impeachment by the House before his term ends, which does not require Senate conviction, indicates a crowd probability of 76% [2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Here are the Republicans who voted to declare Trump guilty at impeachment trial | CNN Politicscnn.com
  2. 2Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  3. 36 Senate Republicans to watch on impeachment vote: Cassidy, Romney, Collins, Toomey, Murkowski, and Sasse | Voxvox.com
  4. 4Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com

6. What are the specific legal grounds cited in the 2025-2026 articles of impeachment against Donald Trump, and how do they compare to historical precedents?

Date H.Res. 353 IntroducedApril 28, 2025 [1][2][3][4]
Date H.Res. 939 IntroducedDecember 10, 2025 [5][6][7]
Definition of "High Crimes"Abuse or violation of an office and public trust [8][9]
The 2025-2026 articles of impeachment against Donald Trump cited multiple serious grounds. These were detailed in two separate House resolutions, both introduced under the premise of "high crimes and misdemeanors." H.Res. 353, introduced on April 28, 2025, encompassed violations such as obstruction of justice, violation of due process, breach of the duty to faithfully execute laws, usurpation of Congress’s appropriations power, abuse of trade powers and international aggression, violation of First Amendment rights, creation of an unlawful office, bribery and corruption, and "tyranny" [1][2][3][4]. A subsequent resolution, H.Res. 939, introduced on December 10, 2025, focused on additional presidential power abuses, specifically citing calls for the execution of Members of Congress and intimidation of federal judges, which were considered violations of separation of powers and judicial independence [5][6][7].
These cited grounds align with historical precedents for impeachable offenses. Historically, "high crimes and misdemeanors," the legal standard for impeachment, is understood to encompass significant abuses or violations of public office and trust that subvert government functions, extending beyond common-law criminal offenses [8][9]. The allegations against Donald Trump in the 2025-2026 articles, including obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and bribery, are consistent with this traditional interpretation, as they address actions considered to be abuses of office or public trust that undermine governmental operations [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1https://www.congress.gov/119/bills/hres353/BILLS-119hres353ih.pdfcongress.gov
  2. 2H.Res.353 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  3. 3Text - H.Res.353 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  4. 4Full Text of H. Res. 353: Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors | Hill Heathillheat.com
  5. 5https://algreen.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/algreen.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/12.10.2025-filed-articles-of-impeachment-003.pdfalgreen.house.gov
  6. 6Text - H.Res.939 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  7. 7Text of H.Res. 939: Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States for high crimes and misdemeanors. (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  8. 8Impeachable Offenses: Historical Background | U.S. Constitution Annotated | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institutelaw.cornell.edu
  9. 9Historical Background on Impeachment | U.S. Constitution Annotated | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institutelaw.cornell.edu

7. How do the processes for removing a president via impeachment and the 25th Amendment differ in terms of triggers, required votes, and timelines relevant to the 2025-2029 term?

Impeachment House ApprovalSimple majority vote [1]
Impeachment Senate Removal VoteTwo-thirds vote of Senators present [2]
Market Resolution ConditionHouse approves articles of impeachment by simple majority; Senate conviction not required [1]
Impeachment and 25th Amendment removal have distinct initiation methods. Impeachment proceedings begin when the House of Representatives approves articles of impeachment by a simple majority vote [2]. Conversely, the 25th Amendment Section 4 is triggered by a written declaration from the vice president and a majority of either the principal officers of executive departments or another body designated by Congress, asserting the president's inability to discharge presidential powers and duties [3].
Removal vote thresholds significantly differ between the processes. For impeachment, conviction and removal from office require a two-thirds vote of Senators present [2]. Under the 25th Amendment Section 4, the vice president immediately assumes acting presidential powers and duties upon the initial declaration, without a congressional vote [3]. If the president disputes this, Congress must convene and decide within 21 days by a two-thirds vote of both the House and the Senate to permanently remove the president [3].
A specific prediction market has unique conditions for resolution. For the prediction market resolving before January 20, 2029, a "Yes" resolution is met if the House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment by a simple majority [1]. It is important to note that Senate conviction and subsequent removal from office are not necessary for this particular market to resolve as "Yes" [1].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  2. 2impeachment | Wex | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institutelaw.cornell.edu
  3. 3Overview of Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Presidential Vacancy | U.S. Constitution Annotated | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institutelaw.cornell.edu

8. Where can official timetables and records for the 119th Congress's impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump be tracked?

First Trump AcquittalFebruary 5, 2020 (116th Congress) [1][2][3][4]
Second Trump AcquittalFebruary 13, 2021 (117th Congress) [5][6]
Prediction Market Impeachment Chance (March 2026)72% before January 1, 2028 [7]
No official timetables or records for Donald Trump's impeachment proceedings during the 119th Congress have been found. The research details past impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump, noting he was acquitted by the Senate during the 116th Congress on February 5, 2020 [1][2][3][4]. He was again acquitted during the 117th Congress on February 13, 2021, marking the first impeachment trial of a U.S. president after leaving office [5][6]. For these prior impeachments, records can be accessed through various congressional sources, including the evidentiary record from House proceedings [8][9], Senate trial proceedings [10][11][12], and the Congressional Record [12].
Speculative prediction markets discuss potential future impeachment of Donald Trump. While official records for any potential 119th Congress proceedings are not detailed, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket hosted contracts as of May 2026 on whether Donald Trump will be impeached or removed from office [7][13][14][15]. These markets differentiate between impeachment, which is a House vote, and removal from office, which requires a Senate conviction [15]. As of March 2026, some platforms indicated a 72% chance of Trump being impeached before January 1, 2028, with the chance of both impeachment and removal from office at 21.1% [7]. Other reports from March and April 2026 showed impeachment odds ranging from 46% to 69% on these platforms [13][14]. These prediction markets reflect speculative trading and are not guarantees of future events [13].
Sources (15)
  1. 1house.govdocs.house.gov
  2. 2senate.gov
  3. 3constitutioncenter.org
  4. 4apmresearchlab.org
  5. 5wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6senate.gov
  7. 7benzinga.com
  8. 8govinfo.gov
  9. 9govinfo.gov
  10. 10gpo.govbookstore.gpo.gov
  11. 11gpo.govbookstore.gpo.gov
  12. 12govinfo.gov
  13. 13independent.co.uk
  14. 14thedailybeast.com
  15. 15defirate.com

9. How might the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections influence impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump in the House and a potential conviction in the Senate?

House Impeachment Likelihood76% before Jan 20, 2029 (Polymarket) [1]
Impeachment and Removal Likelihood23% before Jan 20, 2029 (Kalshi) [2]
Senate Conviction VoteTwo-thirds vote required [3][4][5]
Market probabilities suggest a notable chance of House impeachment. Data indicates a 76% crowd probability on Polymarket that Donald Trump will be impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before his term concludes on January 20, 2029 [1]. However, the likelihood for such impeachment to occur by June 30 is considerably lower, at 5% [6]. For the full process of impeachment and removal from office, which requires both House impeachment and a two-thirds Senate conviction before January 20, 2029, Kalshi's market suggests approximately a 23% chance. Earlier reports on April 7, 2026, placed these odds slightly higher at 27.4% [2][7].
Senate conviction remains the primary obstacle for removal. Securing a two-thirds vote for conviction in the Senate represents the most significant hurdle for removal from office [3][4][5]. Research indicates that the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections alone would not be sufficient to achieve this supermajority; instead, significant defections and substantial political will would be necessary [3][4][5]. In the House, there has been active political engagement on this issue, with Democrats introducing impeachment-related proposals such as H.Res. 353 on April 28, 2025, and H.Res. 939 on December 10, 2025 [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  2. 2Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
  3. 3Why a 2026 Impeachment of Trump Is Unlikely, but Not Impossible | Opinion.orgopinion.org
  4. 4Donald Trump's Chances of Being Removed From Office Reach All-Time High - Newsweeknewsweek.com
  5. 5Trump impeachment coming in 2026? See midterms, predictions, pollsjsonline.com
  6. 6Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7Trump removal odds hit all-time highnews.kalshi.com
  8. 8H.Res.353 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  9. 9Text - H.Res.939 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov