Will Trump be impeached?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds (43.3%) than the market (58.0%) for Trump being impeached before Jan 1, 2028, driven by a more conservative assessment than current market sentiment, which has already seen a modest negative shift.
1. Executive Verdict
- External prediction market probabilities for impeachment slightly decreased mid-2026.
- Market sentiment appears to show a modest negative shift.
- Public opinion polls from Q2 2026 indicate majority support for impeachment.
- The 119th Congress consists of a Republican majority in both chambers.
- President Trump faces significant legal challenges concerning an anti-weaponization fund.
- The administration faces declining public approval ratings as of June 14, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 1.4% | Market sentiment before 2028 shows a modest negative shift, influenced by potential changes in House control. |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.1% | 2.8% | Market sentiment before 2028 shows a modest negative shift, influenced by potential changes in House control. |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 30.0% | 20.4% | Market sentiment before 2028 shows a modest negative shift, influenced by potential changes in House control. |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 58.0% | 43.3% | Market sentiment before 2028 shows a modest negative shift, influenced by potential changes in House control. |
Current Context
Donald Trump began his second non-consecutive term on January 20, 2025. He is currently serving as the 47th President of the United States, having been inaugurated for a second, non-consecutive term on January 20, 2025, with his term scheduled to conclude on January 20, 2029 [^][^][^][^][^]. As a sitting president, he is constitutionally subject to the impeachment process outlined in Article II, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, which permits impeachment for "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors" [^][^].
No official impeachment proceedings are currently underway for President Trump. As of June 14, 2026, there are no official or legislative proceedings initiated for the impeachment of President Trump. His administration is confronting significant legal challenges, including court injunctions against specific policy initiatives and ongoing investigations into various actions [^][^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for Donald Trump's impeachment before 2028 has been trading in an extremely narrow, sideways channel. The probability has remained consistently low, fluctuating only between 1.0% and 2.0% since trading began on June 1, 2026. This tight range establishes clear support at the 1.0% level and resistance at the 2.0% level, with the price starting at, and currently trading at, the top of this range. The total volume of 14,958 contracts indicates a moderate level of market participation, but the lack of price volatility suggests a strong and stable consensus among traders.
The one notable price movement within this period was a temporary drop from 2.0% to 1.0% around June 8, 2026, which quickly reversed. The general context provided does not point to a specific news event that would have caused this brief dip. This suggests the fluctuation may have been caused by a single trade or a momentary shift in sentiment rather than a fundamental re-evaluation by the market. The overall price action reflects a strong market sentiment that a Trump impeachment is a very low-probability event. The consistent trading at the 1-2% level implies a firm conviction that, despite him being constitutionally subject to the process, the political conditions for an impeachment are not expected to materialize before the 2028 resolution date.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if the President of the United States is impeached before January 1, 2028. If no impeachment occurs by this date, the market resolves to NO. The outcome is verified using data from the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and insider trading by individuals with material non-public information or those employed by Source Agencies is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | $0.31 | $0.70 | 30% |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | $0.60 | $0.41 | 58% |
Market Discussion
Traders are actively discussing the likelihood of Donald Trump being impeached, with market odds for impeachment before January 1, 2028, currently at 58%. Arguments for "Yes" generally focus on the perceived political determination of Democrats to impeach Trump. Those betting "No" express strong confidence that it won't occur, with some calling it "easiest money ever," and a procedural discussion also emerged regarding market resolution if Trump were to die before his term ends.
4. What do recent public opinion polls from Q2 2026 indicate about voter appetite for impeachment, particularly among independents and moderate Republicans?
| Overall Impeachment Support | 52% to 55% among U.S. adults in April 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Republican Impeachment Support | 14% to 21% of Republicans in April 2026 [^][^][^] |
| Prediction Market Impeachment Probability | 63% to 66% before end of term (by early 2029) in mid-2026 [^][^] |
Public opinion polls consistently show majority support for President Trump's impeachment. As of Q2 2026, major surveys conducted in April 2026 indicate that 52% to 55% of the U.S. adult population supports impeaching President Donald Trump. Independent voters also demonstrate significant backing, with figures from the same period ranging between 50% and 55%, marking a notable margin over opposition in some datasets [^][^][^][^].
Republican support for impeachment is limited, but a segment favors it. Despite the overall public sentiment, opposition to impeachment remains overwhelming among Republicans. However, April 2026 polling revealed that a segment of the Republican party, approximately 14% to 21%, and 21% of Trump's own 2024 voters, do support his impeachment [^][^][^]. Specific public opinion data for 'moderate Republicans' as a distinct group was not provided in the research.
Impeachment is unlikely despite public support and market predictions. Despite consistent public support, political analysts widely agree that impeachment remains highly unlikely while the House of Representatives is controlled by Republicans [^][^][^]. Prediction markets in mid-2026 estimated a 63% to 66% probability of Trump being impeached before his term concludes in early 2029. Traders often link this potential outcome to the possibility of Democrats regaining control of the House in the 2026 midterms [^][^].
5. What is the partisan composition of the 119th Congress, and what threshold of bipartisan support is required for impeachment in the House and conviction in the Senate?
| House Republican Seats | 218 (June 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Senate Republican Seats | 53 (June 2026) [^][^] |
| Senate Conviction Threshold | Two-thirds supermajority of senators present [^][^][^] |
The 119th Congress currently shows a Republican majority in both chambers. As of June 2026, the U.S. House of Representatives consists of 218 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and 4 vacancies [^][^]. In the U.S. Senate, the composition includes 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats [^][^].
6. How do the current legal challenges against President Trump compare to the articles of impeachment from his first and second terms?
| IRS Lawsuit Amount | $10 billion (as of June 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Anti-Weaponization Fund | $1.776 billion (as of June 2026) [^][^][^] |
| Impeachment Probability | 63% to 68% by January 1, 2028 (mid-2026) [^][^][^] |
President Trump faces significant legal challenges concerning an anti-weaponization fund. As of mid-2026, he is involved in a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS, which is linked to a $1.776 billion "Anti-Weaponization Fund" [^]. A federal judge has reopened an investigation into this fund, specifically examining for potential fraud on the court [^][^][^].
7. What datasets are available to track the number of U.S. House Representatives publicly calling for an impeachment inquiry into President Trump during the 119th Congress?
| Members against tabling H.Res. 939 | 140 (December 2025 [^][^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Independent tracking organization | Citizens' Impeachment [^] |
| Official legislative resource | Congress.gov [^][^][^][^] |
Tracking calls for impeachment utilizes diverse public and official datasets. Data on U.S. House Representatives publicly advocating for an impeachment inquiry into President Trump during the 119th Congress (2025–2027) is compiled from both independent organizations and official congressional resources [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. These sources gather information from public statements, press conferences, town halls, and especially from voting records on privileged impeachment resolutions [^][^].
Independent organizations monitor impeachment support through specific voting analyses. Citizens' Impeachment [^] and the Congressional Impeachment Tracker [^] are examples of independent bodies that aggregate this data. A primary method for assessing support is analyzing roll call votes on "motions to table" impeachment resolutions, where a "no" vote signifies a preference to continue the inquiry [^][^][^]. For example, 140 members cast votes against tabling H.Res. 939 in December 2025 [^][^][^].
Official platforms provide comprehensive legislative details for impeachment resolutions. Congress.gov [^][^][^][^] and GovTrack.us [^][^] are official congressional resources that offer detailed information on introduced impeachment resolutions. These platforms include the full text, sponsorship specifics, and current legislative status for resolutions like H.Res. 353 [^], H.Res. 537 [^], H.Res. 939 [^], and H.Res. 1155 [^][^].
8. What are the most significant legal challenges facing the Trump administration that could escalate into articles of impeachment before 2028?
| H-1B Fee Vacated | $100,000 H-1B fee vacated by federal court [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Impeachment Probability (Current) | 63-65% chance of Trump impeachment before January 1, 2028 (prediction markets) [^][^][^] |
| Impeachment Probability (March 2026) | 72% chance of Trump impeachment (prediction markets) [^][^][^] |
The Trump administration faces several significant legal challenges across federal courts. A federal court recently vacated a $100,000 H-1B fee, determining it to be an unauthorized tax [^][^]. Additionally, legal actions are ongoing regarding a land swap between the administration and SpaceX within a Texas wildlife refuge [^]. Executive orders concerning voter eligibility and mail-in voting also continue to undergo legal scrutiny [^].
Democrats have not ruled out impeaching President Trump if they control the House. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stated on June 14, 2026, that Democrats have not ruled out impeaching President Donald Trump should they regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [^][^][^]. Prediction markets currently suggest a 63% to 65% probability for Trump's impeachment before January 1, 2028, a figure that was previously as high as 72% in March 2026 [^][^][^]. While some Democrats have discussed impeachment or the 25th Amendment in response to specific actions, party leadership has largely focused on broader midterm issues, acknowledging the complexities of securing a conviction in the Senate [^][^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
President Donald Trump is currently serving his second term, having been inaugurated on January 20, 2025 [^] [^] [^] . Trump - The White House">[^][^]. As of June 14, 2026, he faces declining public approval ratings, approximately 38-42%, and increasing friction with some Republican lawmakers, though he maintains strong influence among his core GOP base [^][^][^][^]. Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Trump being impeached by the end of 2026, typically 8-12%, largely due to the structural barrier of a Republican-controlled House [^][^][^]. However, these markets assign a higher probability, approximately 65%, to an impeachment occurring at some point before the end of his full term in January 2029 [^].
The primary bullish catalyst for impeachment would be a shift in House control to Democrats or a major, bipartisan-supported scandal [^] [^] . Be more worried, not less. | Editorial">[^][^]. Conversely, the current bearish reality includes the lack of any formal impeachment inquiry and the existing Republican majority in Congress [^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: June 01, 2026
- Closes: January 01, 2028
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: President Donald Trump is currently serving his second term, having been inaugurated on January 20, 2025 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: As of June 14, 2026, he faces declining public approval ratings, approximately 38-42%, and increasing friction with some Republican lawmakers, though he maintains strong influence among his core GOP base [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Trump being impeached by the end of 2026, typically 8-12%, largely due to the structural barrier of a Republican-controlled House [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: However, these markets assign a higher probability, approximately 65%, to an impeachment occurring at some point before the end of his full term in January 2029 [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXIMPEACH-26-JUN01: NO (Jun 01, 2026)
