Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully lower odds (43.3%) than the market (58.0%) for Trump being impeached before Jan 1, 2028, driven by a more conservative assessment than current market sentiment, which has already seen a modest negative shift.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Based on the provided chart data, the prediction market for Donald Trump's impeachment before 2028 has been trading in an extremely narrow, sideways channel. The probability has remained consistently low, fluctuating only between 1.0% and 2.0% since trading began on June 1, 2026. This tight range establishes clear support at the 1.0% level and resistance at the 2.0% level, with the price starting at, and currently trading at, the top of this range. The total volume of 14,958 contracts indicates a moderate level of market participation, but the lack of price volatility suggests a strong and stable consensus among traders.
The one notable price movement within this period was a temporary drop from 2.0% to 1.0% around June 8, 2026, which quickly reversed. The general context provided does not point to a specific news event that would have caused this brief dip. This suggests the fluctuation may have been caused by a single trade or a momentary shift in sentiment rather than a fundamental re-evaluation by the market. The overall price action reflects a strong market sentiment that a Trump impeachment is a very low-probability event. The consistent trading at the 1-2% level implies a firm conviction that, despite him being constitutionally subject to the process, the political conditions for an impeachment are not expected to materialize before the 2028 resolution date.
  • External prediction market probabilities for impeachment slightly decreased mid-2026.
  • Market sentiment appears to show a modest negative shift.
  • Public opinion polls from Q2 2026 indicate majority support for impeachment.
  • The 119th Congress consists of a Republican majority in both chambers.
  • President Trump faces significant legal challenges concerning an anti-weaponization fund.
  • The administration faces declining public approval ratings as of June 14, 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Jan 1, 2027 4.1% 2.8% Market sentiment before 2028 shows a modest negative shift, influenced by potential changes in House control.
Before Mar 1, 2027 30.0% 20.4% Market sentiment before 2028 shows a modest negative shift, influenced by potential changes in House control.
Before Jan 1, 2028 58.0% 43.3% Market sentiment before 2028 shows a modest negative shift, influenced by potential changes in House control.

Current Context

Donald Trump began his second non-consecutive term on January 20, 2025. He is currently serving as the 47th President of the United States, having been inaugurated for a second, non-consecutive term on January 20, 2025, with his term scheduled to conclude on January 20, 2029 [1][2][3][4][5]. As a sitting president, he is constitutionally subject to the impeachment process outlined in Article II, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, which permits impeachment for "treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors" [6][7].
No official impeachment proceedings are currently underway for President Trump. As of June 14, 2026, there are no official or legislative proceedings initiated for the impeachment of President Trump. His administration is confronting significant legal challenges, including court injunctions against specific policy initiatives and ongoing investigations into various actions [8][6][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1President Donald J. Trump - The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  2. 2President Donald Trump - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  3. 3Donald Trump | Miller Centermillercenter.org
  4. 4President Trump Is Restoring American Greatness One Win at a Time – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  5. 5Donald Trump - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6Judge issues injunction blocking administration's 'Anti-Weaponization Fund' - ABC Newsabcnews.com
  7. 7Impeachment and the Constitution | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  8. 8Trump's investigations of the 2020 election may have more to do with 2026 - Salon.comsalon.com
  9. 9Trump is raising expectations that this time he really will close deal with Iran to wind down war | PBS Newspbs.org
  10. 10Trump confirms US-Iran deal 'complete,' says he 'authorizes' opening of Hormuz, end of US blockade | The Times of Israeltimesofisrael.com
  11. 11Trump says US-Iran deal 'very close' and tells Israel not to 'blow it' | The Nationalthenationalnews.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the President of the United States is impeached before January 1, 2028. If no impeachment occurs by this date, the market resolves to NO. The outcome is verified using data from the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and insider trading by individuals with material non-public information or those employed by Source Agencies is prohibited.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 $0.05 $0.96 4%
Before Mar 1, 2027 $0.31 $0.70 30%
Before Jan 1, 2028 $0.60 $0.41 58%

Market Discussion

Traders are actively discussing the likelihood of Donald Trump being impeached, with market odds for impeachment before January 1, 2028, currently at 58%. Arguments for "Yes" generally focus on the perceived political determination of Democrats to impeach Trump. Those betting "No" express strong confidence that it won't occur, with some calling it "easiest money ever," and a procedural discussion also emerged regarding market resolution if Trump were to die before his term ends.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 79 Good
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score61Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score79Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
81Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
78Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

3 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Jan 1, 202756
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Before Mar 1, 202768
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Before Jan 1, 202881
Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

3 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Jan 1, 2028—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Before Mar 1, 2027—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Before Jan 1, 2027—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Jan 1, 2028100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Mar 1, 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Jan 1, 2027100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
61Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 78 (notional-weighted across 3 scored legs)

$100 order: 0.5c slippage (~16% of a 3.1c contract)

$1,000 order: 0.8c slippage (~26% of a 3.1c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Jan 1, 202881Market scoreLiquidity81Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 81
Liquidity
81 · Deep · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Mar 1, 202768Market scoreLiquidity68Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 68
Liquidity
68 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Before Jan 1, 202756Market scoreLiquidity56Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 56
Liquidity
56 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What do recent public opinion polls from Q2 2026 indicate about voter appetite for impeachment, particularly among independents and moderate Republicans?

Overall Impeachment Support52% to 55% among U.S. adults in April 2026 [1][2][3][4]
Republican Impeachment Support14% to 21% of Republicans in April 2026 [1][3][4]
Prediction Market Impeachment Probability63% to 66% before end of term (by early 2029) in mid-2026 [5][6]
Public opinion polls consistently show majority support for President Trump's impeachment. As of Q2 2026, major surveys conducted in April 2026 indicate that 52% to 55% of the U.S. adult population supports impeaching President Donald Trump. Independent voters also demonstrate significant backing, with figures from the same period ranging between 50% and 55%, marking a notable margin over opposition in some datasets [1][2][3][4].
Republican support for impeachment is limited, but a segment favors it. Despite the overall public sentiment, opposition to impeachment remains overwhelming among Republicans. However, April 2026 polling revealed that a segment of the Republican party, approximately 14% to 21%, and 21% of Trump's own 2024 voters, do support his impeachment [1][3][4]. Specific public opinion data for 'moderate Republicans' as a distinct group was not provided in the research.
Impeachment is unlikely despite public support and market predictions. Despite consistent public support, political analysts widely agree that impeachment remains highly unlikely while the House of Representatives is controlled by Republicans [1][2][7]. Prediction markets in mid-2026 estimated a 63% to 66% probability of Trump being impeached before his term concludes in early 2029. Traders often link this potential outcome to the possibility of Democrats regaining control of the House in the 2026 midterms [5][6].
Sources (7)
  1. 1New poll: 55% support impeaching Trumpgelliottmorris.com
  2. 2Newest Data Reveals 55% of Americans Want Trump Impeached As Support Among Young Voters and Independents Hits Record Highshngn.com
  3. 3Poll finds 1 in 5 Trump voters support impeachment in second term, including 21% of 2024 votersnews.meaww.com
  4. 4New National Poll: Majority of Voters Support Impeaching Donald...freespeechforpeople.org
  5. 5Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.copilot.markets
  7. 7Minds don’t seem to be changing on impeachmentyougov.com

6. What is the partisan composition of the 119th Congress, and what threshold of bipartisan support is required for impeachment in the House and conviction in the Senate?

House Republican Seats218 (June 2026) [1][2]
Senate Republican Seats53 (June 2026) [1][2]
Senate Conviction ThresholdTwo-thirds supermajority of senators present [3][4][5]
The 119th Congress currently shows a Republican majority in both chambers. As of June 2026, the U.S. House of Representatives consists of 218 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and 4 vacancies [1][2]. In the U.S. Senate, the composition includes 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats [1][2].
Impeachment in the House requires a simple majority vote. For impeachment proceedings, the U.S. House of Representatives needs a simple majority vote to impeach [3][4][5]. Conviction in the U.S. Senate then necessitates a two-thirds supermajority vote of senators present [3][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Party Breakdown | House Press Gallerypressgallery.house.gov
  2. 2119th United States Congressen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3House Practice: A Guide to the Rules, Precedents and Procedures of the House - Chapter 27. Impeachmentgovinfo.gov
  4. 4U.S. Senate: Impeachmentsenate.gov
  5. 5What Is Impeachment? The Process, History, and Three Presidential Impeachments Explained | USPollingData.comuspollingdata.com

7. How do the current legal challenges against President Trump compare to the articles of impeachment from his first and second terms?

IRS Lawsuit Amount$10 billion (as of June 2026) [1]
Anti-Weaponization Fund$1.776 billion (as of June 2026) [1][2][3]
Impeachment Probability63% to 68% by January 1, 2028 (mid-2026) [4][5][6]
President Trump faces significant legal challenges concerning an anti-weaponization fund. As of mid-2026, he is involved in a $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS, which is linked to a $1.776 billion "Anti-Weaponization Fund" [1]. A federal judge has reopened an investigation into this fund, specifically examining for potential fraud on the court [1][2][3].
Prediction markets indicate a high probability of Trump's impeachment. As of mid-2026, platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Solflare estimate a 63% to 68% probability that President Trump will be impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before January 1, 2028 [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Trump IRS Lawsuit Reopened: Judge Probes Whether $1.8 Billion "Anti-Weaponization" Settlement Was Fraudlegalunitedstates.com
  2. 2Judge denies watchdog group's request to block Trump's 'Anti-Weaponization Fund' - ABC Newsingest.abcnews.com
  3. 3Trump may be about to kill his $1.8 billion slush fund — but his IRS lawsuit headache isn’t overms.now
  4. 4Will Trump be impeached? | Politics Prediction Markets | Solflaresolflare.com
  5. 5Trump Impeachment: 68% Of Bettors Predict Yes, Here's The Timelineone.news18.com
  6. 6Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

8. What datasets are available to track the number of U.S. House Representatives publicly calling for an impeachment inquiry into President Trump during the 119th Congress?

Members against tabling H.Res. 939140 (December 2025 [1][2][3])
Independent tracking organizationCitizens' Impeachment [1]
Official legislative resourceCongress.gov [4][5][6][7]
Tracking calls for impeachment utilizes diverse public and official datasets. Data on U.S. House Representatives publicly advocating for an impeachment inquiry into President Trump during the 119th Congress (2025–2027) is compiled from both independent organizations and official congressional resources [1][2][4][5][8][6][7]. These sources gather information from public statements, press conferences, town halls, and especially from voting records on privileged impeachment resolutions [1][2].
Independent organizations monitor impeachment support through specific voting analyses. Citizens' Impeachment [1] and the Congressional Impeachment Tracker [2] are examples of independent bodies that aggregate this data. A primary method for assessing support is analyzing roll call votes on "motions to table" impeachment resolutions, where a "no" vote signifies a preference to continue the inquiry [1][2][3]. For example, 140 members cast votes against tabling H.Res. 939 in December 2025 [1][2][3].
Official platforms provide comprehensive legislative details for impeachment resolutions. Congress.gov [4][5][6][7] and GovTrack.us [3][8] are official congressional resources that offer detailed information on introduced impeachment resolutions. These platforms include the full text, sponsorship specifics, and current legislative status for resolutions like H.Res. 353 [7], H.Res. 537 [4], H.Res. 939 [5], and H.Res. 1155 [8][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1House Impeachment Tracker - Citizens' Impeachmentcitizensimpeachment.com
  2. 2Congressional Impeachment Trackerimpeachtrumpagain.org
  3. 3On Motion to Table: H.Res. 537: Impeaching Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and … -- GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  4. 4Text - H.Res.537 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  5. 5H. RES. 939congress.gov
  6. 6H.Res.1155 - Impeaching Donald J. Trump, President of the United...congress.gov
  7. 7Text - H.Res.353 - 119th Congress (2025-2026): Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  8. 8Impeaching Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors. (H.Res. 1155) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us

9. What are the most significant legal challenges facing the Trump administration that could escalate into articles of impeachment before 2028?

H-1B Fee Vacated$100,000 H-1B fee vacated by federal court [1][2]
Impeachment Probability (Current)63-65% chance of Trump impeachment before January 1, 2028 (prediction markets) [3][4][5]
Impeachment Probability (March 2026)72% chance of Trump impeachment (prediction markets) [3][4][5]
The Trump administration faces several significant legal challenges across federal courts. A federal court recently vacated a $100,000 H-1B fee, determining it to be an unauthorized tax [1][2]. Additionally, legal actions are ongoing regarding a land swap between the administration and SpaceX within a Texas wildlife refuge [6]. Executive orders concerning voter eligibility and mail-in voting also continue to undergo legal scrutiny [7].
Democrats have not ruled out impeaching President Trump if they control the House. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries stated on June 14, 2026, that Democrats have not ruled out impeaching President Donald Trump should they regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections [8][9][4]. Prediction markets currently suggest a 63% to 65% probability for Trump's impeachment before January 1, 2028, a figure that was previously as high as 72% in March 2026 [3][4][5]. While some Democrats have discussed impeachment or the 25th Amendment in response to specific actions, party leadership has largely focused on broader midterm issues, acknowledging the complexities of securing a conviction in the Senate [10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1Congress’ Taxing Power Key to Trump Loss on $100,000 H-1B Feenews.bloomberglaw.com
  2. 2Federal Court Strikes Down Trump’s $100,000 H‑1B Fee: INA § 212(f) Is Not a Taxing Power | The Insightful Immigration Blogblog.cyrusmehta.com
  3. 3Will Trump be impeached? | Politics Prediction Markets | Solflaresolflare.com
  4. 4Trump Impeachment Before 2028 Now 72% Likely, Prediction Markets Say - Benzingabenzinga.com
  5. 5Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Lawsuit challenges Trump administration’s land swap with SpaceX in Texaswashingtontimes.com
  7. 7Judge declines to block Trump executive order on voter eligibility lists, mail-in voting limits | Just The Newsjustthenews.com
  8. 8Hakeem Jeffries Says Dems Haven’t ‘Ruled Out’ Impeaching Trump If They Take Back The House | HuffPost Latest Newshuffpost.com
  9. 9Hakeem Jeffries Puts Impeaching Trump On The Tablethedailypoliticususa.com
  10. 10Will Democrats try to remove Trump from office? | The Weektheweek.com
  11. 11Democrats grow bolder on talk about removing Trump from office...pbs.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

President Donald Trump is currently serving his second term, having been inaugurated on January 20, 2025 [1][2][3]. As of June 14, 2026, he faces declining public approval ratings, approximately 38-42%, and increasing friction with some Republican lawmakers, though he maintains strong influence among his core GOP base [4][5][6][7]. Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to Trump being impeached by the end of 2026, typically 8-12%, largely due to the structural barrier of a Republican-controlled House [8][9][10]. However, these markets assign a higher probability, approximately 65%, to an impeachment occurring at some point before the end of his full term in January 2029 [11].
The primary bullish catalyst for impeachment would be a shift in House control to Democrats or a major, bipartisan-supported scandal [6][10]. Conversely, the current bearish reality includes the lack of any formal impeachment inquiry and the existing Republican majority in Congress [6][10].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 01, 2026
  • Closes: January 01, 2028
Sources (11)
  1. 1Second presidency of Donald Trump - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2President Donald J. Trump - The White Housewhitehouse.gov
  3. 3Trump celebrates 80th birthday with Iran deal ahead of UFC fights on White House South Lawn | PBS Newspbs.org
  4. 4Poll: Democrats maintain an edge in the fight for Congress as Trump gets poor marksnbcnews.com
  5. 5New Marquette Law School national survey finds Trump with declining approval but retaining strong influence on GOP primary voters – Marquette Law School Polllaw.marquette.edu
  6. 6Trump is losing in courts, Congress, and the polls. Be more worried, not less. | Editorialinquirer.com
  7. 7Trump's Favorability Free Fall in Two Chartsredeemingdemocracy.net
  8. 8Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  9. 9Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  10. 10Will Trump Be Impeached Before End of 2026?lines.com
  11. 11Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Trading Odds & Predictions 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series

Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXIMPEACH-26-JUN01: NO (Jun 01, 2026)