How many bills will President Trump sign in Apr 2026?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- The market already excludes fewer than four bills signed.
- Midterm Aprils historically average 14 to 16 presidential bill signings.
- President Trump previously signed a high volume of minor legislation.
- House Republicans indicate strong alignment with a Trump legislative agenda.
- Senate pragmatism and midterm campaigning could limit bill volume.
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 4
📈 April 28, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 42.0% to 59.0%
📈 April 18, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 25.0%
Outcome: 7
📉 April 27, 2026: 13.0pp drop
Price decreased from 15.0% to 2.0%
Outcome: 5
📈 April 24, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 39.0% to 49.0%
📈 April 23, 2026: 25.0pp spike
Price increased from 21.0% to 46.0%
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if President Trump signs exactly 4 bills into law in April 2026, otherwise it resolves to NO. Joint resolutions are included in the count, and the outcome is verified by the White House and Library of Congress. The market opened on April 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT, and will close early if the event occurs, or by May 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM EDT. Payout is projected 30 minutes after closing.
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. How Does Government Control Affect Bill Signings in Midterm Aprils?
| Average Bills Signed (Divided Govt) | 15.8 bills [1] |
|---|---|
| Average Bills Signed (Unified Govt) | 14.0 bills [1] |
| Standard Deviation (Divided Govt) | 5.9 bills [1] |
6. When Were SBIR/STTR Programs Reauthorized by Congress in 2026?
| Programs Reauthorized | Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) [1] |
|---|---|
| Reauthorization Date | April 1, 2026 [2] |
| New Authorization Expiration | September 30, 2030 [2] |
Sources (4)
- 1Bills 119hr5371enr.htmgovinfo.gov
- 2Congress Reauthorizes the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) Programs - International Economic Development Counciliedconline.org
- 3Is Congress Finally Reauthorizing SBIR/STTR—and What’s Changing? | Inside Government Contractsinsidegovernmentcontracts.com
- 4Upcoming Congressional Fiscal Policy Deadlines-2026-02-23crfb.org
7. What Proportion of Laws Are Minor or Symbolic?
Sources (3)
- 1Trump Signed 96 Laws In 2017. Here Is What They Do And How They Measure Up: NPRnpr.org
- 2What Laws Has Trump Signed In His First 100 Days?: NPRnpr.org
- 3the Full Committee to consider the following:</p><p>1) H.R. 7274, Federal Acquisition Security Council Improvement Act of 2026;</p><p>2) H.R. 2985, Modernizing Government Technology Reform Act;</p><p>3) H.R. 4123, Federal Improvement in Technology Procurement Act;</p><p>4) H.R. 7283, Ensuring Federal Purchasing Efficiency Act; 5) H.R. 1118, Value Over Cost Act of 2025; 6) H.R. 5438, Incentivize Savings Act; 7) H.R. 5000, Cybersecurity Hiring Modernization Act; 8) H.R. 7256, Federal Workforce Early Separation Incentives Act;</p><p>9) H.R. 7265, Vote By Mail Tracking Act;</p><p>10) Several postal naming measures. | Committee Repository | U.S. House of Representativesdocs.house.gov
8. How Do Republicans Align with a Potential Trump Legislative Agenda?
| House Republican Alignment | United and in sync with Trump's Day One Agenda [1] |
|---|---|
| Senate Leader's Role | Help Trump administration understand 'what's realistic' in the Senate [2] |
| Senate Independent Action | May push legislation 'despite Trump opposition,' risking a veto [3] |
Sources (4)
- 1Scalise: House GOP is in Sync with Trump on Day One Agenda | Majority Leadermajorityleader.gov
- 2Senate Majority Leader John Thune says he'll help Trump understand "what's realistic" in the Senatecbsnews.com
- 3Senate Republicans to push ahead with border bill despite Trump opposition | Reutersreuters.com
- 4Scalise says GOP leadership, Trump agree to move on one reconciliation billdigital-dev.thehill.com
9. How Might Trump's 2026 Midterm Campaign Affect Bill Signings?
| Bills Signed (First 100 Days) | 28 [1] |
|---|---|
| Total Bills Signed (June 2017) | 40 [2] |
| April 2026 (Midterm Context) | Six months prior to November 2026 elections [3] |
Sources (5)
- 1What Laws Has Trump Signed In His First 100 Days?: NPRnpr.org
- 2These are the bills Trump signed into law in his first year as Presidentcnn.com
- 3President Trump rallies Arizona Republicans ahead of 2026 midterms - KTAR.comktar.com
- 4Trump signs few laws in first 100 days as he pushes to expand executive powernbcnews.com
- 5Donald J. Trump Event Timeline | The American Presidency Projectpresidency.ucsb.edu
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-3.0: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-2.0: NO (Apr 27, 2026)
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-1.0: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26APR-0.0: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXBILLSCOUNT-26MAR-10T: NO (Apr 01, 2026)