Will Trump do anything this week? (4/26-5/2)
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Donald Trump actively participated in his criminal trial this week.
- He faced a $9,000 fine for violating gag orders.
- Key witnesses provided testimony during Trump's criminal trial.
- He was warned of potential incarceration for future violations.
- Trump maintained a high volume of daily social media posts.
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 April 27, 2026: 12.0pp spike
Price increased from 65.0% to 77.0%
Outcome: At least 4
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump has taken at least 7 presidential actions between April 26, 2026, and May 2, 2026, as published on the "Presidential Actions" page at whitehouse.gov. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. The count is verified at 10:00 AM ET on May 3, 2026, based solely on the visible publication dates on that specific page, including proclamations, executive orders, nominations, appointments, and memoranda.
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. What Key Developments Occurred in Trump's Trial, April 26 - May 2?
| David Pecker Testimony End Date | April 26, 2024 [1] |
|---|---|
| Keith Davidson Testimony Dates | April 30 - May 2, 2024 [1] |
| Gag Order Fine Amount | $9,000 for 9 violations [1] |
6. What is Donald Trump's campaign schedule for April 26 - May 2, 2024?
| Current Schedule Availability | Not possible to confirm for April 26 - May 2, 2024 (based on provided sources) [1] |
|---|---|
| 60 Minutes Interview (2026) | April 26, 2026 [2] |
| King Charles US Visit (2026) | Meeting with Trump on April 28, 2026 [3] |
Sources (7)
- 1April 2026 - President's Public Schedule | Factba.serollcall.com
- 2President Donald Trump: The 2026 60 Minutes Interview - CBS Newscbsnews.com
- 3King Charles' US visit schedule with Trumpusatoday.com
- 4President Trump joins 60 Minutes after the assassination attempt at the WH Correspondents' Dinner. – The White Housewhitehouse.gov
- 5President Trump to hold rally in Central Florida, state GOP saysyahoo.com
- 6Trump says he speaks with Putin and Zelenskiy -Fox Newsyahoo.com
- 7President Donald Trump's Schedule for Monday, April 27, 2026 | CDNconservativedailynews.com
7. What Key Economic Data is Released April 30, 2026?
| PCE Price Index Release | April 30, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Personal Income & Outlays Release | April 30, 2026 [1] |
| Biden Policy Announcements | None identified for April 26 - May 2, 2026 [2] |
8. Which States Hold Key Republican Primaries in Early May 2026?
| West Virginia Primary Date | May 12, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| WV Senate Primary Description | "GOP Senate Civil War" and closely contested battle [2] |
| Endorsement Impact Window | 10-16 days before May 12, 2026 primaries [1] |
Sources (4)
- 1West Virginia's 1st Congressional District election, 2026 (May 12 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2The GOP Senate Civil War, Part 1: Inside the Republican Primary Battle That Could Reshape West Virginia's Upper Chamberwvwasp.com
- 3Republican Party primaries in Indiana, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Inside the Indiana GOP's unprecedented 'civil war' over the electioneu.indystar.com
9. What Is Donald Trump's Predicted Activity Level This Week?
| Avg. Truth Social Posts Daily | 14.5 posts per day [1] |
|---|---|
| Peak Daily Truth Social Posts | Often exceeds 20 posts [1] |
| Public Schedule Cadence | Regular events and appearances (March-April 2026) [2] |
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 16 resolved YES, 4 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T7: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T5: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T4: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T3: YES (Apr 26, 2026)
- KXTRUMPACT-26APR19-T2: YES (Apr 26, 2026)