What will Trump say this week?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Trump to mention Barack Hussein Obama this week, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Trump is likely to mention "Fraud," tied to potential high inflation or Fed actions.
- "TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome" is expected, reflecting a strategic play for midterms.
- Remarks on the Iran conflict appear likely, given Trump's emphasis in late July.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | 99.0% | 99.0% | Cannabis policy remains a relevant topic in national political discussions. |
| Gianni / Infantino | 99.0% | 99.0% | Trump has previously met with FIFA president Gianni Infantino and discussed soccer-related topics. |
| Windmill | 99.0% | 99.0% | He frequently criticizes wind energy projects and their environmental impact. |
| TikTok | 99.0% | 99.0% | The future of TikTok ownership and its national security implications is a current topic. |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 99.0% | 99.0% | Trump has recently expressed interest and a more positive outlook on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. |
Current Context
On July 26, 2026, President Trump paused US military strikes against Iran. This action followed 13 consecutive days of operations, taken after cabinet advisers raised concerns regarding the depletion of U.S. air defense munitions [^][^][^][^][^]. While President Trump maintains that "all options are on the table," he is now emphasizing potential diplomatic negotiations, reportedly involving Omani mediation, as a "smarter strategy" for addressing regional tensions and the status of the Strait of Hormuz [^][^]. This suggests a rhetorical focus on de-escalation and diplomatic solutions this week.
Domestic political pressures will likely frame President Trump's public remarks. With 100 days remaining before the 2026 midterm elections, analysts point to his record-low approval ratings, around 35-37%, and widespread voter dissatisfaction with the economy, which threaten Republican control of Congress [^][^][^]. Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks in Milford, Michigan, on July 27, 2026, at a General Motors facility, in conjunction with the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge [^]. This event is expected to focus on economic policies, manufacturing resurgence, and the automotive industry [^]. Recent presidential appearances have also covered the U.S. economy, the "Trump Accounts" initiative, election integrity, national security, ratepayer protection, and nuclear innovation, indicating recurring themes for his messaging [^][^][^][^][^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This contract's price trended firmly upward, beginning at an 85.0% probability on July 20 and closing the period at 99.0%. The determinative price action was a 14.0 percentage point spike that occurred between July 20 and July 23. This move from a high-probability state to one of near-certainty correlates with the timing of sustained U.S. military operations against Iran. Contextual reporting indicates these operations were ongoing for 13 consecutive days prior to a pause on July 26. The market appears to have priced in the high likelihood of a presidential mention during this period of active conflict, with the price reaching its peak of 99.0% well before the eventual pause in strikes was reported.
Volume patterns confirm the market's conviction. Trading volume was initially low but surged as the price consolidated near its peak, with volume on July 26 significantly higher than on July 20. This increase in activity after the price stabilized suggests a strong consensus, with traders entering positions based on a near-certain outcome. The contract established a clear support level at its opening price of 85.0% and a resistance ceiling at 99.0%, where it remained for the rest of the trading period. Overall, the chart reflects a market that quickly and decisively priced a near-guaranteed event driven by major geopolitical developments.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: TikTok
📈 July 25, 2026: 83.0pp spike
Price increased from 16.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was the increased likelihood of President Trump mentioning TikTok, following the social media engagement of his administration. Earlier in July 2026, members of President Trump's Cabinet began launching accounts on TikTok after a Justice Department guidance shift deemed the platform safe for federal employees [^]. This social media activity by Trump's inner circle appeared to lead the market spike, signaling a shift in the administration's stance and directly increasing expectations that Trump himself would soon comment on the platform [^]. A notable spike in broader discussions involving politicians and TikTok on July 25, 2026, further coincided with this sentiment [^][^]. Social media was a primary driver, demonstrating the direct influence of his administration's public engagement on market expectations.
Outcome: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis
📈 July 24, 2026: 90.0pp spike
Price increased from 9.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement appears to be traditional news related to cannabis legislation. On July 24, 2026, a GOP lawmaker claimed White House support for a new bipartisan hemp bill [^]. This report likely prompted market participants to increase their belief that President Trump would mention cannabis-related topics in his public remarks, causing the significant price spike. Although administration officials reportedly declined to fully endorse the specific legislation due to concerns over inhalable product provisions, the initial claim of White House support appears to have been the key event [^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary or contributing driver based on the provided information.
Outcome: Crypto / Bitcoin
📈 July 23, 2026: 73.0pp spike
Price increased from 26.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike on July 23, 2026, was Donald Trump's explicit pro-cryptocurrency statements made at public events. Trump announced that the U.S. must lead in crypto to counter China's ambition and famously reiterated his support by calling himself "a big crypto guy" during a press event for 'Trump Accounts' [^][^][^][^][^]. While broader crypto markets experienced volatility or decline due to macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions, these direct pronouncements from Trump, disseminated via traditional news, would strongly influence a prediction market focused on his "Mentions" of "Crypto / Bitcoin" [^][^][^][^]. Therefore, traditional news and announcements of Trump's statements were the primary driver, with social media likely serving as a contributing accelerant for their rapid spread.
Outcome: Rigged Election / Stolen Election
📈 July 22, 2026: 29.0pp spike
Price increased from 70.0% to 99.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the market price spike was President Trump's late-night social media blitz on Truth Social on July 21-22, 2026, directly preceding and coinciding with the movement [^][^][^]. Trump published numerous posts alleging that U.S. elections are "rigged" and "crooked," characterizing a New Jersey voter registration error as evidence of electoral illegitimacy [^][^][^]. This direct and explicit social media activity from President Trump appeared to lead the price move by providing specific, real-time commentary directly relevant to the market's outcome. Social media was a primary driver.
Outcome: Cuba / Cuban
📉 July 21, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 72.0% to 56.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 16.0 percentage point drop was likely the absence of any public indication or scheduled announcement from Donald Trump explicitly mentioning "Cuba / Cuban" on July 21, 2026. Despite his administration's intensified rhetoric and U.S. sanctions targeting Cuban entities around this period [^][^][^], and a severe energy crisis unfolding in Cuba that day [^][^], no specific upcoming speech or social media post from Trump on Cuba was scheduled for the week [^][^]. This lack of an expected direct catalyst from Trump himself, particularly on social media platforms like Truth Social which prediction markets were monitoring [^][^], likely led to a reduced market probability for him specifically addressing "Cuba / Cuban." Social media was a primary driver, as the absence of anticipated direct communication from Trump directly influenced market expectations.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "Yes" if Donald Trump states "Cuba / Cuban" (or its plural/possessive form) in a public statement, direct quote from an approved news agency, or on his personal social media (Twitter/Truth Social). This statement must occur between July 20, 2026, 10:00am ET, and before July 27, 2026, 12:00am ET; official acts or grammatical/tense inflections (beyond plurals/possessives) do not count. A "No" resolution occurs if the phrase is not stated within this timeframe, and the market closes early upon a "Yes" resolution, with outcomes verified by a list of specified media sources. Insider trading by employees of source agencies or those with material non-public information is prohibited.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bibi / Netanyahu | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Gianni / Infantino | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Karoline / Leavitt | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Melania | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Newscum | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Peace in the Middle East | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Rigged Election / Stolen Election | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| TikTok | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Ukraine | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Who are you with / Where are you from | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Windmill | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Cuba / Cuban | $0.10 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Stupid Question | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Golden Dome | $0.07 | $0.95 | 5% |
| American Flag Blue | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Autopen / Auto Pen | $0.04 | $0.98 | 3% |
| ISIS | $0.04 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Prediction Market / Predictive Market | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
| UFO / UAP | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Uranium | $0.04 | $0.97 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Traders are discussing a range of phrases Trump might say this week, beyond the top-listed options, including "Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis," "TikTok," "Bibi / Netanyahu," and "Melania," along with general remarks like "something stupid." For "Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis," some traders predict "No," citing searches with Google AI and Chat GPT which found no record of Trump saying the phrase this week, while others have taken "Yes" positions on different terms such as "TikTok." The discussion highlights individual predictions and verification methods rather than a clear consensus or detailed arguments for the market's highlighted phrases.
5. What geopolitical or economic developments before July 27, 2026, would most likely trigger remarks from Donald Trump on Iran or Ukraine?
| Date of Caspian Sea incident | July 26, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Iran's threat range | All of Ukraine within range of Iranian ballistic missiles [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Expected Trump response | Remarks on Iran or Ukraine [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
An escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war into the Caspian Sea would most likely prompt remarks from Donald Trump on Iran or Ukraine. This scenario involves Ukrainian forces striking Iranian vessels and Iran's subsequent threats against Ukraine [^][^][^][^][^][^]. Specifically, on July 26, 2026, Ukrainian forces reportedly struck Iranian vessels in the Caspian Sea, which were alleged to be transporting military cargo to Russia [^][^][^]. In retaliation, Iran accused Ukraine of a deadly attack on a commercial vessel, issuing threats of retribution and warning that all of Ukraine is within range of Iranian ballistic missiles [^][^][^][^][^].
This incident has intricately linked the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, creating a delicate situation President Donald Trump's administration is reportedly managing in the Middle East [^] [^] . The administration's actions in the region include maintaining a naval blockade against Iran and having recently paused a 13-night streak of strikes [^][^][^]. This direct connection between the two conflicts is a key factor in the likelihood of a presidential statement.
Prediction markets are actively tracking Trump's potential statements this week, specifically for the period of July 20–26, 2026, particularly following the Caspian Sea escalation [^] . (July 20 - July 26)" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^]. President Donald Trump has a history of making strong statements regarding Iran, including past threats of a bombing campaign if Iran continued attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and has also previously restarted an Iran blockade [^][^].
6. Based on his remarks at the White House Correspondents' Dinner and other appearances in late July 2026, which topics has Trump been emphasizing most frequently?
| Primary focus of Trump's remarks (late July 2026) | Conflict with Iran and criticism of journalists [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Prediction market focus (July 20–26, 2026) | Media, election integrity, and foreign policy rhetoric [^][^][^][^] |
| Date of White House Correspondents' Association dinner | July 24, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
President Trump emphasized the Iran conflict and criticized journalists in late July. In late July 2026, President Trump frequently highlighted the conflict with Iran and directed criticism towards journalists, notably referencing 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' [^][^]. Prediction markets for the week of July 20–26, 2026, also monitored his rhetoric concerning the media, election integrity, and foreign policy [^][^][^][^].
Trump's remarks on Iran shifted between threats and diplomatic pauses. Regarding the conflict with Iran, Trump's statements in late July 2026 varied significantly, oscillating between threats of 'massive' or 'higher level' attacks and discussions of a tactical pause in military operations to facilitate diplomacy, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz [^][^][^][^][^]. He additionally expressed concerns about US munitions stockpiles [^].
The White House Correspondents' Dinner featured Trump's criticism of the press. At the rescheduled White House Correspondents' Association dinner on July 24, 2026, President Trump used his platform to criticize journalists, referring to the audience as experiencing 'Trump Derangement Syndrome' [^][^][^][^]. His hour-long speech combined humor with insults, and he also made quips about a third presidential term, acknowledged an April assassination attempt, and pointed out his construction of a White House ballroom [^].
7. How does the strategic context for mentioning 'Bibi/Netanyahu' regarding Iran compare with the context for using 'TDS/Trump Derangement Syndrome' ahead of the 2026 midterms?
| Netanyahu strategic context | Coordination on Iran and potential military action tied to Israel's October 2026 elections [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| TDS political use | Polarized political framework for 2026 midterms to frame opposition [^][^][^] |
| Prediction market mention | Candidate phrases for Donald Trump in prediction markets for July 20-26, 2026 [^][^] |
Netanyahu's focus on Iran involves high-stakes coordination with Trump. The strategic context for mentioning 'Bibi/Netanyahu' in late July 2026 centers on critical discussions regarding Iran, particularly Prime Minister Netanyahu's efforts to align with President Trump on potential military action against Iranian infrastructure [^][^]. These foreign policy discussions, emphasizing Iran's nuclear program and a strong relationship with President Trump, are notably occurring ahead of Israel's October 2026 elections [^][^].
'Trump Derangement Syndrome' serves as a domestic political tool. Conversely, the phrase 'TDS/Trump Derangement Syndrome' is being deployed within a polarized domestic political framework as the 2026 midterms approach [^]. Supporters of its use aim to dismiss systemic opposition as irrational rage, while critics contend that it is a weaponized term designed to delegitimize valid policy dissent [^][^].
8. What does the historical data from Trump's 2024-2026 speeches show about the frequency and context of him mentioning 'Crypto/Bitcoin' versus 'Fraud'?
| Rhetoric Shift | Since 2024, frequently and positively mentioned 'Crypto' and 'Bitcoin' [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Key Pledge | Make the U.S. the 'crypto and AI capital of the world' [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| Self-Description | Described himself as a 'big crypto guy' [^][^][^][^] |
Donald Trump has significantly embraced crypto and Bitcoin in his recent rhetoric. Since 2024, he has frequently and positively mentioned 'Crypto' and 'Bitcoin' in his speeches and policy platforms, actively promoting the asset class as a significant economic engine [^][^][^]. He explicitly pledged to make the U.S. the 'crypto and AI capital of the world,' establish a 'strategic bitcoin reserve,' and remove the SEC Chair [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. By July 2026, he consistently framed his administration's crypto policy as a reversal of the previous administration's 'weaponization of government' against the industry [^][^][^][^][^].
Trump actively promotes a hands-off approach, shifting focus from crypto-related fraud. He has described himself as a 'big crypto guy' and actively highlighted his administration's hands-off regulatory approach [^][^][^][^]. In contrast, his mentions of 'fraud' in the context of crypto have been significantly lower, aligning with his rhetoric embracing digital assets as a key administration priority [^][^][^][^]. As of late July 2026, his references to 'fraud' predominantly targeted political rivals or election security, rather than the cryptocurrency sector [^][^]. His current rhetoric focuses on implementing a 'crypto-friendly' framework, which includes the ongoing development of the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and stablecoin regulations, emphasizing U.S. competition with China to maintain global leadership in crypto and AI [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
9. What actions by the Federal Reserve or statements from the Biden administration regarding the economy before July 27 could prompt Trump to use the term 'Fraud'?
| Inflation Rate Acknowledged by Federal Reserve | Approximately 4% (July 2026) [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Lisa Cook Removal Attempt Blocked by Supreme Court | June 29, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| June CPI Decrease | 0.4% [^][^][^] |
Trump could label high inflation or Fed actions as "fraud." Donald Trump has a history of using the term "fraud" in contexts related to government and economic issues. He could potentially apply this term in response to ongoing high inflation, which the Federal Reserve acknowledged in July 2026 as remaining "unquestionably too high" at approximately 4% [^][^][^][^]. This characterization of persistent high inflation as a form of "fraud" by the government or the Federal Reserve would be consistent with his previous rhetoric on economic management, even considering a 0.4% decrease in the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) [^][^][^].
Efforts to remove Fed officials, including Governor Cook, could provoke "fraud" claims. Further actions regarding Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, or broader challenges to Fed officials, could also prompt Trump's use of the term. Notably, he previously alleged mortgage fraud against Governor Cook in an unsuccessful attempt to remove her, an effort that was blocked by the Supreme Court on June 29, 2026 [^][^][^]. Allies of Trump are reportedly exploring an external review of the Silicon Valley Bank failure as a new potential 'for cause' basis to remove Federal Reserve officials, highlighting ongoing tensions [^].
No recent evidence shows Trump used "fraud" for Biden's economy. The available information does not contain specific statements from the Biden administration regarding the economy before July 27 that would directly prompt Trump to use the term 'fraud'. Furthermore, there is no evidence in current research or major news trackers of Donald Trump having used the term 'Fraud' concerning the economy or Biden administration policies in the days leading up to July 26, 2026 [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
President Trump has two key public engagements scheduled. On Monday, July 27, 2026, he is set to visit a General Motors facility in Milford, Michigan, to deliver remarks on the economy, coinciding with the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge [^][^]. The following day, July 28, 2026, he is scheduled to deliver a tribute to the late Lindsey Graham at the Washington National Cathedral [^]. Prediction markets are actively tracking potential terms Trump may mention in his speeches and posts for the week of July 27 – August 2, 2026, specifically focusing on manufacturing, auto-sector employment, trade policy, and tariffs [^][^][^].
Domestically, President Trump faces significant political pressure with the midterm elections approximately 100 days away, including poor polling and the potential for a Democratic-controlled House of Representatives [^] . Polymarket prediction contracts regarding whether Trump will be out of office by July 31, 2026, are currently trading with a very high probability (>99%) that he will remain in office [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: July 27, 2026
- Closes: July 27, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: President Trump has two key public engagements scheduled.
- Trigger: On Monday, July 27, 2026, he is set to visit a General Motors facility in Milford, Michigan, to deliver remarks on the economy, coinciding with the opening of the Gordie Howe International Bridge [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The following day, July 28, 2026, he is scheduled to deliver a tribute to the late Lindsey Graham at the Washington National Cathedral [^] .
- Trigger: Prediction markets are actively tracking potential terms Trump may mention in his speeches and posts for the week of July 27 – August 2, 2026, specifically focusing on manufacturing, auto-sector employment, trade policy, and tariffs [^] [^] [^] .
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 17 resolved YES, 3 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27-TRUM: YES (Jul 24, 2026)
- KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27-TRAN: YES (Jul 24, 2026)
- KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27-TDS: YES (Jul 24, 2026)
- KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27-SLEE: YES (Jul 24, 2026)
- KXTRUMPSAY-26JUL27-LAND: YES (Jul 24, 2026)
