Topic tracker · Mentions
What will trump say
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 10 so far (0 live, 10 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new What will trump say markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated July 29, 2026
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will Trump say this week? | August 3, 2026 | 99.1% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | July 27, 2026 | 99.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | July 20, 2026 | 99.0% vs 99.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | May 18, 2026 | 32.0% vs 36.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | May 11, 2026 | 5.7% vs 7.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | April 27, 2026 | 8.2% vs 9.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | April 20, 2026 | 16.7% vs 26.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | April 13, 2026 | 3.6% vs 4.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | April 6, 2026 | 100.0% vs 5.0% | Report → |
| What will Trump say this week? | February 23, 2026 | 99.5% vs 99.5% | Report → |
